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Solution
January 60 -
February 70 60
March 50 61
April 90 59.9
For period 3 𝟏 −β
AF3= F3 + ( ) T3
T3 = β ( F3 – F2)+ (1 – β ) T2 β
T3 = 0.2 ( 61 – 60)+ (1 – 0.20) (0) 1 −0.20
AF3= 61 + ( ) (0.20)
T3 = 0.20 0.20
AF3= 61.80
Month Motorcycles Demanded F for α = 0.1 AF for β = 0.2
January 60 - -
February 70 60 60
March 50 61 61.8
April 90 59.9 59.66
May 10 62.91 65.11
June 80 57.62 55.14
July 150 59.86 59.66
August 70 68.87 75.91
September 110 68.98 74.70
October 150 73.08 80.42
November 130 80.77 93.21
December 85.69 99.57
Adjusted Exponential Smoothed Forecast w/ α = 0.1 and β = 0.2
160
140
120
100
Motorcycle Demand
80
60
40
20
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month