Continuous

Probability
Distributions
Chapter 7

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Learning Objectives
 LO7-1 Describe the uniform probability distribution and use it to
calculate probabilities.
 LO7-2 Describe the characteristics of a normal probability distribution.
 LO7-3 Describe the standard normal probability distribution and use
it to calculate probabilities.
 LO7-4 Approximate the binomial probability distribution using the
standard normal probability distribution to calculate probabilities.
 LO7-5 Describe the exponential probability distribution and use it to
calculate probabilities.

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 LO7-1 Describe the uniform probability
distribution and use it to calculate probabilities.

The Uniform Distribution

The uniform probability
distribution is perhaps the
simplest distribution for
a continuous random
variable.

This distribution is
rectangular in shape
and is defined by
minimum (a) and
maximum (b) values.

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 LO7-1

The Uniform Distribution – Mean

and Standard Deviation
Knowing the minimum and maximum values of a uniform
distribution, we can define the probability function, and
calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the
distribution.

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 LO7-1

The Uniform Distribution –

Example
Southwest Arizona State University provides bus service to students.
On weekdays, a bus arrives at the North Main Street and College Drive
stop every 30 minutes between 6 a.m. and 11 p.m. Students arrive at
the bus stop at random times. The time that a student waits is uniformly
distributed from 0 to 30 minutes.

1. Draw a graph of this distribution.

2. Show that the area of this uniform distribution is 1.00.
3. How long will a student “typically” have to wait for a bus? In other
words what is the mean waiting time? What is the standard
deviation of the waiting times?
4. What is the probability a student will wait more than 25 minutes?
5. What is the probability a student will wait between 10 and 20
minutes?

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 LO7-1

The Uniform Distribution -

Example
1. Graph of uniformly distributed waiting times
between 0 and 30:

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 LO7-1

The Uniform Distribution –

Example
2. Show that the area of this distribution is 1.00.

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 LO7-1

The Uniform Distribution –

Example
3. How long will a student
“typically” have to wait for a
bus? In other words what is
the mean waiting time?

What is the standard

deviation of the waiting
times?

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 LO7-1

The Uniform Distribution –

Example
4. What is the probability a student will
wait more than 25 minutes?

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 LO7-1

The Uniform Distribution –

Example
5. What is the probability a student will wait
between 10 and 20 minutes?

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 LO7-2 Describe the characteristics of a
normal probability distribution.

Characteristics of a Normal
Probability Distribution
 It is bell-shaped and has a single peak at the center of the distribution.
 It is symmetrical about the mean.
 It is asymptotic: The curve gets closer and closer to the X-axis but never
actually touches it. To put it another way, the tails of the curve extend
indefinitely in both directions.
 The location of a normal distribution is determined by the mean, . The
dispersion or spread of the distribution is determined by the standard
deviation, σ.
 The arithmetic mean, median, and mode are equal.
 As a probability distribution, the total area under the curve is defined to be
1.00.
 Because the distribution is symmetrical about the mean, half the area under
the normal curve is to the right of the mean, and the other half to the left of it.

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 LO7-2

The Normal Distribution –

Graphically

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 LO7-2

The Family of Normal

Distributions

Equal Means and Different Different Means and

Standard Deviations Standard Deviations

Different Means and Equal Standard Deviations

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 LO7-3 Describe the standard normal probability
distribution and use it to calculate probabilities.

The Standard Normal Probability

Distribution
 The standard normal distribution is a normal
distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard
deviation of 1.
 It is also called the z distribution.
 A z-value is the signed distance between a
selected value, designated x, and the population
mean, , divided by the population standard
deviation, σ.
 The formula is:

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 LO7-3

Areas Under the Normal Curve

Using a Standard Normal Table

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 LO7-3

The Empirical Rule – Verification

 For z=1.00, the table’s
value is 0.3413; times 2
is 0.6826.
 For z=2.00, the table’s
value is 0.4772; times 2
is 0.9544.
 For z=3.00, the table’s
value is 0.4987; times 2
is 0.9974.

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 LO7-3

The Normal Distribution –

Example
The weekly incomes of shift
foremen in the glass
industry follow the normal
probability distribution with
a mean of $1,000 and a
standard deviation of
$100.
What is the z value for the
income, let’s call it x, of a
foreman who earns $1,100
per week? For a foreman
who earns $900 per week?

17
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 LO7-3

Normal Distribution – Finding

Probabilities (Example 1)
In an earlier example we
reported that the mean
weekly income of a shift
foreman in the glass
industry is normally
distributed with a mean of
$1,000 and a standard
deviation of $100.

What is the likelihood of

selecting a foreman
whose weekly income is
between $1,000 and
$1,100?

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 LO7-3

Normal Distribution – Finding

Probabilities (Example 1)

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 LO7-3

Finding Areas for z Using Excel

The Excel function:
=NORM.DIST(x,Mean,Standard_dev,Cumu)
=NORM.DIST(1100,1000,100,true)
calculates the probability (area) for z=1.

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 LO7-3

Normal Distribution – Finding

Probabilities (Example 2)
Refer to the information
regarding the weekly
income of shift foremen in
the glass industry. The
distribution of weekly
incomes follows the normal
probability distribution with a
mean of $1,000 and a
standard deviation of $100.

What is the probability of

selecting a shift foreman in
the glass industry whose
income is between $790
and $1,000?

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 LO7-3

Normal Distribution – Finding

Probabilities (Example 3)
Refer to the information
regarding the weekly
income of shift foremen in
the glass industry. The
distribution of weekly
incomes follows the normal
probability distribution with a
mean of $1,000 and a
standard deviation of $100.

What is the probability of

selecting a shift foreman in
the glass industry whose
income is less than $790?
The probability of selecting a shift
foreman with income less than
$790 is 0.5 - .4821 = .0179.
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 LO7-3

Normal Distribution – Finding

Probabilities (Example 4)
Refer to the information
regarding the weekly
income of shift foremen in
the glass industry. The
distribution of weekly
incomes follows the normal
probability distribution with
a mean of $1,000 and a
standard deviation of $100.

What is the probability of

selecting a shift foreman in
the glass industry whose
income is between $840
and $1,200?

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 LO7-3

Normal Distribution – Finding

Probabilities (Example 5)
Refer to the information
regarding the weekly
income of shift foremen in
the glass industry. The
distribution of weekly
incomes follows the normal
probability distribution with
a mean of $1,000 and a
standard deviation of $100.

What is the probability of

selecting a shift foreman in
the glass industry whose
income is between $1,150
and $1,250?

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 LO7-3

Using Z to Find X for a Given

Probability - Example
Layton Tire and Rubber Company
wishes to set a minimum mileage
guarantee on its new MX100 tire.
Tests reveal the mean mileage is
67,900 with a standard deviation of
2,050 miles and that the
distribution of miles follows the
normal probability distribution.
Layton wants to set the minimum
guaranteed mileage so that no
more than 4 percent of the tires will
have to be replaced.

What minimum guaranteed

mileage should Layton announce?

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 LO7-3

Using Z to Find X for a Given

Probability – Example

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 LO7-3

Using Z to Find X for a Given

Probability – Example

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 LO7-4 Approximate the binomial probability
distribution using the standard normal
probability distribution to calculate probabilities.

Normal Approximation to the

Binomial
 The normal distribution (a continuous distribution)
yields a good approximation of the binomial
distribution (a discrete distribution) for large values
of n.

 The normal probability distribution is generally a good

approximation to the binomial probability distribution
when n and n(1- ) are both greater than 5.

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 LO7-4

Normal Approximation to the

Binomial
Using the normal distribution (a continuous distribution) as a substitute
for a binomial distribution (a discrete distribution) for large values of n
seems reasonable because, as n increases, a binomial distribution gets
closer and closer to a normal distribution.

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 LO7-4

Continuity Correction Factor

The value .5 is subtracted or added, depending on the
problem, to a selected value when a binomial probability
distribution (a discrete probability distribution) is being
approximated by a continuous probability distribution (the
normal distribution).

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 LO7-4

How to Apply the Correction

Factor
Only one of four cases may arise:
1. For the probability at least X occurs, use the area above (X -.5).
2. For the probability that more than X occurs, use the area above
(X+.5).
3. For the probability that X or fewer occurs, use the area below (X -
.5).
4. For the probability that fewer than X occurs, use the area below
(X+.5).

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 LO7-4

Normal Approximation to the

Binomial – Example
Suppose the management of
the Santoni Pizza Restaurant
found that 70 percent of its
new customers return for
another meal. For a week in
which 80 new (first-time)
customers dined at Santoni’s,
what is the probability that
60 or more will return for
another meal?

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 LO7-4

Normal Approximation to the

Binomial – Example
If we use the binomial probabilities, we would compute:

P(X ≥ 60) = 0.063+0.048+ … + 0.001) = 0.197

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 LO7-4

Normal Approximation to the

Binomial – Example
Step 1. Find the mean and
the variance of a binomial
distribution and find the z
corresponding to an x of 59.5
(x - .5, the correction factor).

Step 2: Determine the area

from 59.5 and beyond.

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 LO7-5 Describe the characteristics and compute
probabilities using the exponential distribution.

The Family of Exponential

Distributions
Characteristics and uses:
 Positively skewed, similar to
the Poisson distribution (for
discrete variables)
 Not symmetric like the
uniform and normal
distributions
 Described by only one
parameter, which we identify The exponential distribution usually describes
as λ, often referred to as the inter-arrival situations such as:
“rate” of occurrence • The service times in a system
parameter • The time between “hits” on a web site
• The lifetime of an electrical component
 As λ decreases, the shape of
• The time until the next phone call arrives in a
the distribution becomes “less customer service center
skewed.”
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 LO7-5

Exponential Distribution –
Example
Orders for prescriptions arrive at a
pharmacy management website
according to an exponential
probability distribution at a mean of
one every twenty seconds.

Find the probability the next order

arrives in:
1) less than 5 seconds,
2) more than 40 seconds,
3) or between 5 and 40 seconds.

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 LO7-5

Exponential Distribution –
Example

P ( Arrival  40)  1  P ( Arrival  40)

1

P ( Arrival  5)   1  (1  e 20
( 40 )
)
 1  0.8647
1
 (5)
 1  (1  e 20
)
 0.1353
 1  0.7788
 0.2212
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 LO7-5

Exponential Distribution –
Example
Compton Computers wishes to set a
minimum lifetime guarantee on its
new power supply unit. Quality testing
shows the time to failure follows an
exponential distribution with a mean
of 4000 hours. Note that 4000 hours
is a mean and not a rate. Therefore,
we must compute λ as 1/4000 or
0.00025 failures per hour.

Compton wants a warranty period

such that only five percent of the
power supply units fail during that
period. What value should they set for
the warranty period?

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 LO7-5

Exponential Distribution –
Example
In this problem, we need to find the value of x or the average
inter-arrival time so that the probability of a returned unit is 5%.

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