Microscopic Speed :

1. Speed trajectories of individual vehicles.

2. Speed characteristics under uninterrupted flow conditions.
3. Concerned with mathematical distributions
4. Evaluation.

4.1. VEHICULAR SPEED TRAJECTORIES :

This section is about the trajectories of individual vehicles over space and time as
influenced by interrupted flow and highway grade situations.

Interrupted flow situations include sign- and signal- controlled crossings.

Highway grade situations will include the interactions between various types of
vehicles and the length and steepness of grades intersections as well as railroad and
pedestrian crossings.

Highway grade situations will include the interactions between various types of
vehicles and the length and steepness of grades
First, equations are provided for determining vehicle speed trajectories over space and
time based on specified acceleration and deceleration rates.
Maximum and normal acceleration and deceleration rates are presented for various
types of vehicles under various grade situations.
Then the equations and rates of acceleration and deceleration are applied to several
highway traffic situations.

….4-1

….4.2

= speed (miles per hour) at the beginning of the acceleration

= speed at the end of the acceleration (or deceleration) cycle

a = acc/ deceleration) rate (miles per hour/second)

t = speed (ph) to ending speed (p,) (seconds)

d = distance for vehicle to accelerate (or decelerate) at rate a from

beginning speed to ending sped ((feet)
For example, a tractor-semitrailer truck on a sustained 6 percent upgrade will be unable
to accelerate once a speed on the order of 23 miles per hour is reached. Thereafter,
the speed will remain constant on the upgrade, and this speed is referred to as the
crawl speed.

Acceleration and deceleration rates vary considerably

between drivers, vehicles, traffic situations, roadway
situations, and for different speed levels

Table 4.2, which summarizes acceleration rates, distances traveled, and elapsed
times for-passenger vehicles on level terrain and under normal operating conditions,
has been prepared for later analysis. The distances traveled and the elapsed times
were calculated using equations (4.1) and (4.2).
Minimum safe stopping distances rather than maximum deceleration rates are
considered because of the dependency on coefficient of friction rather than vehicle type
and because most design issues are concerned with the distance requirements to stop
a vehicle from some specified running speed

The equation for minimum stopping distance :

Where S = minimum stopping distance in (feet)

= running speed at beginning of the deceleration (miles per hour )
= coefficient of friction between tires and pavement
g = grade situation expressed as a decimal (i.e..,a 3 percent up grade is
expressed as + 0.03)
A table of minimum stopping distances to bring a vehicle to a complete stop as a
function of initial running speed, grade situation, and coefficient of friction is presented
as Table 4.3.
The three subtables are for various tire–pavement situations: dry pavement–good tires,
dry pavement–poor tires, and wet pavement.
In each table, minimum stopping distances are given for selected running speeds and
for three grade situations: 6 percent downgrade, level, and 6 percent upgrade

Note that coefficient of friction values are not only a function of the tire–pavement
situation but also depend on running speeds (i.e., lower coefficient of friction values are
encountered at higher speeds)
Highway Traffic Applications

Three applications will be made to demonstrate how acceleration and deceleration per-
formance of vehicles can be used to develop vehicle speed trajectories for travel
through an intersection, during a passing maneuver, and for trucks on grades.

Normal acceleration and deceleration performance will be used in these examples and
are based on data provided in Tables 4.2 and 4.4.
A graphical illustration of vehicle trajectories in the vicinity of a signalized inter-
section in a rural area is shown in Figure 4.1

Figure 4.1
In each case shown, the running speed some distance upstream and downstream of
the signal is assumed to be 50 miles per hour.
The speeds at the stop line at the intersection are assumed to be 50, 30, and 0 miles
per hour.
The vehicle trajectories during constant running speed are shown as heavy lines
while the vehicle trajectories during deceleration and acceleration are shown as lighter
lines.
Note that the lost time due to slowing to 30 miles per hour is only a few seconds,
whereas a required stop (even without stopped time) is considerably more.
A graph of vehicle trajectories during a passing maneuver is shown in Figure
4.2.

Figure 4.2
In this example, a vehicle traveling 60 miles per hour approaches a vehicle ahead in the
same lane which is traveling at a constant 40 miles per hour.
The higher-speed vehicle decelerates, maintains a distance headway of 100 feet for 4
seconds, and then passes while accelerating back to 60 miles per hour.
Note that the passing vehicle encroaches in the adjacent lane for about 900 feet and 11
seconds.
The vehicle trajectory of the second vehicle during encroachment is shown as a heavy
line in the figure.
The vehicle trajectory of the following vehicle is shown as a dashed line if passing was
not required and a constant 60-mile per hour running speed was maintained.
An example nomograph contained in the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual [201 for typical trucks
[200 pounds per horsepower (lb/hp)] is reproduced here as Figure 4.3

Figure 4.3
The final example is concerned with the trajectory of trucks on grades. In this example
maximum rather than normal acceleration and deceleration (due to limited vehicle
performance not to braking) are considered

The performance of trucks are grouped on the basis of weight-to-horsepower ratios, and
100, 200, and 300 pounds per horsepower are used to represent light, typical, and
heavy trucks, respectively.

Initial speeds other than zero and 55 miles per hour can be considered.
For example, if a 200-lb/hp truck approaches a +4 percent upgrade that is 2000 feet
long and is followed by a +6 percent upgrade that is 1000 feet long, the anticipated
speeds at the end of each individual grade can be predicted.
Using the nomograph shown in Figure 4.3, the speed at the end of the 2000foot-long
+4 percent upgrade is found to be 39 miles per hour.
Projecting this point horizontally to the left from the +4 percent to the +6 percent
upgrade curve, and then moving along the +6 percent upgrade curve down and to the
right for an additional distance of 1000 feet, the speed at the end of the second grade
is found to be 26 miles per hour.
Figure 4.3
For illustrative purposes, consider the speed trajectory of a 200-lb/hp truck along a
highway that has a profile as shown in the top portion of Figure 4.4.
The truck speeds at various points along the upgrades and downgrades are shown in
the lower portion of Figure 4.4, and the results for the 200-lb/hp truck were obtained
using the performance curves shown in Figure 4.3.
The speed of the truck at the beginning of subsection 1 is assumed to be 55 miles per
hour, and since the grade in subsection 1 is 0 percent, the truck speed of 55 miles per
hour is maintained for the first 3 miles.
The truck speed at the end of subsection 2, which is 1 mile long and has a grade of +3
percent, is reduced to 38 miles per hour (point B on Figure 4.3).
The 1 mile, +5 percent grade reduced the truck speed further, to 26 miles per hour (point
D on Figure 4.3), and the 1/2 mile, +7 percent grade reduced the truck speed even
further, to 20 miles per hour (point F on Figure 4.3).

At this point the summit is reached and a 1 mile, –3 percent downgrade is

encountered. The truck is able to accelerate and has the performance capability to
return to 55 miles per hour within approximately 2000 feet
4.2. SPEED CHARACTERISTICS UNDER UNINTERRUPTED FLOW CONDITIONS

Consider standing at a point along a highway facility during a relatively short period of
time under uninterrupted flow conditions:

that is, a location away from intersections which has little or no roadside development.
The speeds of individual vehicles are measured and recorded.

This would result in a series of individual vehicular speeds such as 50, 46, 48, 55, 48,
and so on, miles per hour. The sample mean and sample variance of these
"ungrouped" speed observations would be :
Where :

sample mean speed (miles per hour) pi = speed of vehicle i

N = total number of speed observations s2
S2 = sample variance
s = sample standard deviation

In most cases the speed observations are "grouped." The frequencies of each
speed level or speed interval are determined from the series of individual vehicular
speeds observed.
An example of grouped speed data is shown in the first two columns of Table 4.5
based on 200 individual speed observations.
The cumulative frequency and percentile are shown in the next two columns and
will be utilized a little later.
The last two columns are calculations required in determining the sample mean
and sample variance using the following equations:
 g

 f   i i
......4.7
 i 1

N
2
g
1 g 
 f      f i  i 
2
i i
i 1 N  i 1  ......4.8
s2 
N 1

......4.9
s s 2

where = mean speed of sample

g = number of speed groups
i = speed group i
fi = number of observations in speed group i
= midpoint speed of group i
N = total number of speed observations
= sample variance
S = sample standard deviation
Note that in calculating the variance the term N – 1 rather than N is used in the
demonstration because of dependency between the last f i g i value and  However,
for moderate sample sizes, using N or N–1 will have little effect on the numerical results.
For the grouped speed data shown in Table 4.5, the sample mean and the sample
variance are calculated as follows:

...4-10

…4-11

S= =6.3 miles/hour …4-12

Two types of distributions are often plotted in regard to measured speed distributions as
shown in Figure 4.5.

Figure 4.5a is a straight frequency distribution in which the vertical scale represents the
number of observations in each speed group and the horizontal scale is speed in miles
per hour.

Figure 4.5b is a cumulative percentile distribution in which the vertical scale represents
the percent of vehicles traveling at or less than the indicated speed group and the
horizontal scale is speed in miles per hour.

These distributions are helpful in showing important measures of central tendencies and
dispersion as well as qualitatively observing the shape of the speed distribution.

The sample mean was calculated in equation (4.10) to be 52.3 miles per hour.

The sample mode can be observed in Figure 4.5a to be 53 miles per hour.

The sample median can be observed in Figure 4.5b to be 52.5 miles per hour.

Hence the mean, mode, and median of the sample are the three measures of central
tendency of the sample and are 52.3, 53.0, and 52.5 miles per hour, respectively.
The standard deviation of the sample was calculated in equation (4.12) to be 6.3 miles
per hour.
Figure 4.5 can be used to determine the total range (0 to 100 percent) and is found to be
65 miles per hour minus 33 miles per hour or 32 miles per hour.
Figure 4.5b can be used to determine the 15 to 85 percentile range and is found to be
57.8 miles per hour minus 45.5 miles per hour, or 12.3 miles per hour.
Another measure of dispersion used uniquely in speed distributions is the 10-mile per
hour pace. This measure is defined as the highest percentile of vehicles in a 10-mile per
hour range.
Inspection of Table 4.5 and Figure 4.5 indicates that the 10-mile per hour pace is 47 to
57 or 48 to 58 miles per hour, each of which includes 62 percent of all vehicles in the
sample.
In summary, the four measures of dispersion: standard deviation, total range, 15 to 85
percentile range, and 10-mile per hour pace were found to be 6.3 miles per hour, 32
miles per hour, 12.3 miles per hour, and 62 percent (47 to 57 or 48 to 58 miles per hour),
respectively.
For example, three unique normal distributions are shown in Figure 4.6. In
comparing normal distribution 1 with normal distribution 2, s1 = s2 but µ1 < µ2. In
comparing normal distributions 2 and 3, µ2 = µ3 but s2 < s3.

Figure 4.6 Examples of normal distribution

 The dispersion is such that when the
standard deviation is specified, 68.27
percent of the observations will be within
1 standard deviation of the mean, 95.45
percent within 2 standard deviations of the
mean, and 99.73 percent within 3
standard deviations of the mean.

Normal distribution eq.

(ideal)

f  i   e  
1  i U
2
/ 2 2
…4-13
 2
Where :
f(µi) = probability density function of individual speeds
= a constant, 3.1416
e = a constant Napierian base of logarithms
(e = 2.71828)

Figure 4.7a, 4.7b

 Speed value being investigated

= population mean speed (miles per hour)

= population standard deviation

= population variance

The total area under the probability density curve includes all possible outcomes and therefore is
equal to unity (or 100 percent). The area under the curve between a speed value of, say, and (the
shaded area in of Figure 4.7a) represents the probability of a speed between these two speed
values, and in this case has a probability of 0.6827 (68.27 percent).

In a similar way the area between and represents a probability of 0.9545 (95.45 percent) and the
area between and represents a probability of 0.9973 (99.73 percent).

Note that one could ask What is the probability of an individual speed over ? The total
unshaded area represents a probability of 0.3173 (1.0000-0.6827), the normal distribution is
symmetrical and therefore the unshaded areas representing the probability of is 0.3173/2, or
0.1586

That is, if individual speeds are normally distributed, 15 to 16 vehicles of every 100 vehicles would
be" expected to travel at speeds greater than . The cumulative form of the normal distribution is
shown in Figure 4.7b.
Note the S-shaped distribution and the indicated percentages of vehicles traveling at or
less than indicated speeds.
Two issues must now be addressed in order to apply the normal distribution to a
measured speed distribution. Equation (4.13) specifies that population mean and
standard deviation of the population () are required for the normal distribution. On the
other hand, in most speed studies only the sample mean µ and the standard deviation of
the sample (s) are known. The sample mean is the best single estimate of the popula-
tion mean and is used in the normal distribution. Estimating the standard deviation of the
population from the standard deviation of the sample is more complex. The relationship
between the two is a function of the sample size, N, and as N increases the difference
between the two standard deviations becomes smaller and smaller. As N goes to infinity,
the two standard deviations are identical. As a practical matter, if N > 30, the standard
deviation of the sample is numerically substituted for the standard deviation of the
population. For sample sizes less than 30, the t-distribution rather than the normal
distribution is used.
The other issue involves the calculation procedures for the normal distribution.
Inspection of equation (4.13) indicates that calculating the probability density function is
rather tedious, and observing Figure 4.7a indicates that converting the probability
density function calculations into probabilities for various speed ranges is very cumber-
some. One solution is to "normalize" the normal distribution and integrate the probability
density function between the mean speed value and other speed values. The resulting
probabilities can be placed in a tabular form such as shown in Table 4.6. Then the
.analyst can calculate the Xlo values and determine the probabilities from the table. The
probabilities can then be determined as a function of X/

Where P = probability of an observation between some speed, , and the mean

speed,
X = speed range or deviation between , and (X = - (absolute value)
= standard deviation of the population (s is best estimate for large samples)
As an illustration, consider the example shown in Table 4.5. The sample mean is 52.3 miles per
hour and the standard deviation of the speed sample is 6.3 miles per hour. The best estimate of
the population mean is 52.3 miles per hour and…4.15
since N > 30 (actually, N = 200), the standard
deviation of the population is estimated to be 6.3 miles per hour and the normal distribution is
used.
Pose the question : What is the probability of individual speeds between 35 and 40
miles per hour? Since the mean lies above both 35 and 40 miles per hour, two
calculations are required: X between 35.0 and 52.3, and X between 40.0 and 52.3.
X 52.3  35
    2.75 …4.15
   3552.3 6.3

X 52.3  40.0

    1.95 …4.16
   4052.3 6.3

Entering Table 4.6 with XI(Y values of 2.75 and 1.95, the corresponding probability
values are 0.4970 and 0.4744. That is, 49.70 percent of the vehicles are traveling at
speeds between 35 and 52.3 miles per hour and 47.44 percent are traveling at
speeds between 40 and 52.3 miles per hour. Therefore, the probability of a speed
between 35 and 40 miles per hour is the difference between these two probabilities
and numerically equal to 0.0226. With a sample size of 200, the expected frequency
would be 4 or 5. Note in Table 4.5 that the measured frequency was 4.
Evaluation and Selection of Mathematical Distribution

The procedure described above will be applied to the measured speed distribution
shown in Table 4.5 and Figure 4.5. Numerical checks are made of the measures of
central tendency. The mean, median, and mode are 52.3, 52.5, and 53.0 miles per
hour, respectively, which are in very close agreement. The frequency distribution
shown in Figure 4.5a displays a fairly strong single mode. Numerical checks are
made of the measures of dispersion: standard deviation, total range, 15 to 85
percentile range, and 10 miles per hour pace are 6.3 miles per hour, 32 miles per
hour, 12.3 miles per hour, and 62 percent (47 to 57 or 48 to 58 miles per hour),
respectively. Some of the more important checks are shown below.
 The variance of a measured speed distribution normally should be less than the
variance of a random distribution :
S 2
R m 
s 2  6.3  39.3mil / j
2

s R2  52.3mil / j

s 2  s R2

The standard deviation should be approximately one-sixth of the total range since the mean plus and minus three
standard deviations encompasses 99.73 percent of the observations of a normal distribution:
totalrange
s EST 
6

= 32/6 = 5.3 mil/j

…4.17
s  s EST

The standard deviation should be approximately one-half of the 15 to 85 percent range since the mean plus and minus
I standard deviation encompasses 68.27 percent of the observation of a normal distribution

15  85 percentilerange
s EST 
2

…4.18
= 12.3/2 = 6.15

s  s EST
 The 10-mile per hour pace should be approximately straddling the sample mean µ = 52.3 miles/hour

  52.3mil / j
pace 10 mil/j = 47 to 57, 48 to 58
midpoint of pace = 52 atau 53
midpoint of pace 

The normal distribution has little skewness and the coefficient of skewness calculated below should be
close to zero.

mean  mod e …..4.19

s
52.3  53.0
 0.1
6=
.3

Or :
Koef skewness =

 mean  median 
3  …..4.20
 s 

 52.3  52.5 
3   0.1
 6.3 