1.

1
SCIENTIFIC METHOD IN
ECOLOGY
 Lesson Learning Outcome
1. To apply the scientific method
appropriately

2. To acquire knowledge in simple

descriptive statistics: mean, variance
and standard deviation

3. To describe the four types of models

in ecology
 Scientific Method
1. Observations and previous experience
Collect data (preliminary)
Describes pattern or phenomenon

2. Question (Hypothesis)
Explanation of observed pattern or phenomenon
(Components of a stated hypothesis: 1) pattern & 2) explanation )

3. Predictions
if then statement
yes no statement (null hypothesis)

4. Experimental test of the prediction

(sometimes requires a manipulation)
Constitutes Experimental treatment
Collect data and analysis

5. Results (based on data analysis)

6. Conclusion (support or reject hypothesis?)
 Fig 2.2 shows that the plants vary in
their growth response mainly due To
genetic variations.

Some degree of natural variation exists

independent of treatments.

How do we evaluate this variation?

Are the estimates of plant growth under

the 2x levels of gas concentration
different, or is it due to natural
variations among the plants sampled?
1) mean () :
- central tendency = average

2) Variance:
- 2 (sigma) is the population variance
measure of dispersion about the mean

3) Standard deviation :
- the square root of the variance
 Exercise- Statistical descriptive
Sample of Leaf length (cm)

Xi (Xi- X) (Xi - X)2

Leaf 1 7.1 7.1-8 = -0.9 0.81

Leaf 2 7.8 7.8-8 = -0.2 0.04
Leaf 3 6.8 6.8-8 = -1.2 1.44
Leaf 4 8 8-8 = 0 0
Leaf 5 9.5 9.5-8 = 1.5 2.25
Leaf 6 5.3 5.3-8 = -2.7 7.29
Leaf 7 7.5 7.5-8 = -0.5 0.25
Leaf 8 9.2 9.2-8 = 1.2 1.44
Leaf 9 10 10-8 = 2 4
Leaf 10 8.8 8.8-8 = 0.8 0.64

Xi = 80 (Xi- X) 2 = 18.16

Mean = Xi = 80/10=8
n

Variance = 2
= (Xi- X) 2 = 18.16 / 9 = 2.02
n-1

Standard deviation = = (Xi- X) 2 = 1.42

n-1
 Models & Predictions
A model is a representation of an object,
concept or system.

Done after hypothesis testing:

- to formulate a relationship between
dependent and independent variable
- to test whether it will work based on
hypothesis formulated
 Statistical
models

Analytical Types of Nonstatistical

models models models

Simulation
models
 1) Statistical models
Mathematical description of data.
Predict the value of dependent variable
using mathematical equation
y = ax + b, y is the dependent (plant height)
and x the independent (fertilizer)
a & b can be solved when we have paired
values of x & y
 Stem density and estimated snowshoe hare (Lepus americana)
density:
1.Linear relationship hare increase as understorey stem
density increase
2.The regression equation is a statistical model for
predicting the density of hares (y) given a value of
stem density (x).
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
0 2 4 6 8 10

Positive Correlation
Negative Correlation
4.5
4
3.5

2.5
3
Three types
1.5
2
of
1 correlation
0.5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10

No Correlation
 2) Nonstatistical models
- They go beyond the description of the
relationship between dependent and
independent variables.

The non statistical model gives the complex

process of studied subject.
 3) Analytical models
A mathematical model that have a closed form solution
Can be solved mathematically and it is deterministic like
population growth
eg., dn/dt = rN(K N)/K
 4) Simulation models
Cannot be solved analytically
A simulation shows the expected working of a
system based on a model of the system.

e.g:
1. UPM : Built a crop simulation model to identify the
suitable planting time.

2. USM : Landslide Prediction Simulation System (LPSS),

assist the authority on decision making on how to
measure disaster prevention

3. IIUM : Decentralized Signal Control on Four intersections

in Malaysia Traffic Systems.