Probability and Statistics

Midterm Period

N.B.Fernandez
 PROBABILITY

Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with

calculating the likelihood of a given event's
occurrence, which is expressed as a number between
1 and 0. An event with a probability of 1 can be
considered a certainty
 SAMPLE SPACES AND EVENTS
A probability experiment is a chance process that
leads to well-defined results called outcomes.

Trial is a repetition of an experiment

An outcome is the result of a single trial of a

probability experiment.

A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes

of a probability experiment.

A Set is a well defined collection of distinct things or

objects.
 An event is a subset of a sample space. Event is
any particular outcome or group of outcomes from
an experiment.
An element of a set can be specified by simply
listing the elements inside a pair of braces
the things that belong to or contained in a set
An empty set or null set ( ) the entire set can
be considered to be a subset, as can a set that
contains no elements at all.
 Simple Set Example
the universal set is
a deck of ordinary
playing cards
each card is an element
in the universal set
some subsets are:
face cards
numbered cards
suits
Black cards
Example:
You work in a cell phone factory and are asked to
remove cell phones at random off of the assembly line
and turn it on and off.

Each time you remove a cell phone and turn it on and

off, you are conducting a random experiment.

Each time you pick up a phone is a trial and the result is

called an outcome.

If you check 200 phones, and you find 5 bad phones,

then relative frequency of failure = 5/200 = 0.025
 Types of Probability

There are three basic interpretations of probability:

1. Classical probability

2. Empirical or relative frequency probability

3. Subjective probability
 Types of Probability
Subjective probability uses a probability value based
on an educated guess or estimate, employing opinions
and inexact information.

Empirical probability relies on actual experience to

determine the likelihood of outcomes.

Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine

the numerical probability that an event will happen.
Suppose that a researcher asked 25 people if they liked
the taste of a new soft drink. The response were classified
as yes, no or undecided. The result were categorized in
a frequency distribution:
Response Frequency
YES 15
NO 8
UNDECIDED 2
Total 25

The probability of selecting a person who liked the taste is

15/25 or 60%
Suppose a fun size bag of M&Ms contains 9 brown
candies, 6 yellow candies, 7 red candies, 4 orange
candies, 2 blue candies, and 2 green candies.
Suppose that a candy is randomly selected.

(a) What is the probability that it is brown?

(b) What is the probability that it is blue?

 Probability Rules

1. The probability of an event E is a number between

and including 0 and 1.

0 P(E) 1
2. If an event E cannot occur, the probability is ZERO.
3. If an event E is certain, then probability of E is 1.
4. The sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in the
sample space is 1.
 Complementary Events

The complementary of an event E is the set of outcomes in

the sample space that are not included in the outcomes of
event E. The complement of E is denoted by E

a) P(E) = 1 P(E),

b) P(E) = 1 P(E),

c) P(E) + P(E) = 1
 Complementary Events
Find the complement of each event:

1. Rolling a dice and getting even numbers

2. Selecting a day of the week and getting a weekday.
3. A die is rolled. Find the probability of not getting a 5.
4. We draw a card from a given deck of cards. Find the
probability of not getting a jack or king.
 SAMPLE SPACE

1. What is the sample space for choosing an odd

number from 1 to 11 at random?

2. What is the sample space for choosing 1 letter at

random from 5 vowels?

3. What is the sample space for choosing a prime

number less than 15 at random?
4. Suppose you are trying to decide what to have for
breakfast. You can choose between cereal and a
bagel, and you have four choices for what to drink:
coffee, orange juice, tea, or water. List the sample
space.
5. Suppose we flip a coin and spin a spinner with
three colors at the same time. What is the sample
space when we both flip the coin and spin the
spinner.
6. An experiment consists of tossing a die and then
flipping a coin once if the number on the die is even. If
the number on the die is odd, the coin is flipped twice.
Using the notation 4H, for example, to denote the
simple event that the die comes up 4 and then the coin
comes up heads, and 3HT to denote the simple event
that the die comes up 3 followed by a head and then a
tail on the coin, list the 18 elements of the sample space
S.
 Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint events if

one occurs the other cannot. In a set theory language,
the events are mutually exclusive if they do not share
any elements; they have no outcomes in common.

A B
 Not Mutually Exclusive Events

A B

Two events are not mutually exclusive if they can

occur at the same time.
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and which are
not:
a) Drawing a king or an ace from a deck of cards
b) Getting a white ball or a red ball from an urn of white and
red balls.
c) Getting a number multiple of 3 and divisible by 2 when a
dice is thrown.
d) Drawing a red card or a jack from a given 52 cards deck.
e) Getting three heads or three tails when three coins are
flipped.
 Addition Rules
Addition Rule 1 When two events A and B are mutually
exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur is:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Addition Rule 2 When two events A and B are NOT

mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur is:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)

 Addition Rules
1. Find the possibilities of selecting a queen or a heart when you
draw a single card from a deck. (4+13-1/52) (Not Mutually )
2. Find the possibilities of selecting a queen or a king when you
draw a single card from a deck. (8/52) (Mutually)
3. A card is drawn from a deck, find the probabilities of getting a 3
or a diamond? (16/52) (Not Mutually)
4. A card is drawn from a deck, find the probabilities of getting a 3
or a 6? (8/52) (Mutually)
 Combination of Events
UNION of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes
that are contained in either of two events. We denote union as
(A U B)

INTERSECTION of two events is the event that consists of all

outcomes that are contained in both of the two events. We
denote the intersection as (A B).

COMPLEMENT of an event in a sample space is the set of

outcomes in the sample space that are not in the event. This
subset is given by the symbol A
1. LET: S ={0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}

A= {2,4,7,9}

B= {1,3,5,7,9 }

C= {2,3,4,5}

D= {1,6,7}

Find the following:

a. (A U C) D
b. (C B) U A
 Probability exercises

1. A cup is flipped 100 times. It lands on its side 84 times, on

its bottom 6 times, and on its top 10 times. What is the
probability that it lands on it top?

2. Fifty balls are numbered 1-50, placed in a box and mixed

thoroughly. If a ball is picked at random, what is the
probability that:
a) It is divisible by 6
b) Its number ends with 2
c) Its number is divisible by 6 or end with 2

3. In a class of 30 students, there are 17 girls and 13 boys.

Five are A students, and three of these students are girls. If a
student is chosen at random what is the probability of
choosing girl or an A student?
4. A and B play 12 games of chess of which 6 are won by A, 4 are
won by B, and 2 end in a draw. They agree to play a tournament
consisting of 3 games. Find the probability that:

a. A wins all three games

b. A and B win alternately
c. B wins in 2 games and A wins on the third game

5. What is the probability of a 2 or an odd number being rolled on a

fair die?

6. Three men are seeking public office. Candidate A and B are given
about the same chance of winning, but candidate C is given twice
the chance of either A or B
a) What is the probability that C wins?
b) What is the probability that A does not win?
 VENN DIAGRAM
Shows a sample space and events within the space. It is a
pictorial representation of sets where sets are represented
by enclosed areas in the plane. The method consists
primarily of entering the elements of a set into a circle
or circles.
A C
A A B

AUBUC=A+B+C

A C
A B

(A U B) = A + B - A B A U B U C = A+B+C AB-AC-BC+ABC
A. Draw a Venn Diagram which divides the
twelve months of the year into the following
two groups:
Months whose name begins with the letter J
and Months whose name ends in ber.

B. Fifty people were surveyed and only 20

people said that they regularly eat Healthy
Foods like Fruit and Vegetables. Of these 20
healthy eaters, 12 said that they ate
Vegetables every day.

Draw a Venn Diagram to represent these

results.
1. In a school of 320 students, 85 students are in the band,
200 students are on sports teams, and 60 students
participate in both activities. How many students are
involved in either band or sports?

2. At a breakfast buffet, 93 people chose coffee and 47

people chose juice. 25 people chose both coffee and juice.
If each person chose at least one of these beverages, how
many people visited the buffet?

3. In a group of students, 65 play foot ball, 45 play hockey, 42

play cricket, 20 play foot ball and hockey, 25 play foot ball
and cricket, 15 play hockey and cricket and 8 play all the
three games. Find the total number of students in the
group.(Assume that each student in the group plays at
least one game.)
4. From the adjoining Venn diagram, find the
following sets.
a. A
b. B
c. A'
d. B'
e. C'
f. CA
g. BC
h. AB
i. AB
j. BC
k. AC
l. BC
5. 150 college freshmen were interviewed. 85 were
registered for a Math class, 70 were registered for an
English class and 50 were registered for both Math and
English
a) How many signed up only for a Math Class?
b) How many signed up only for an English Class?
c) How many signed up for Math or English?
d) How many signed up neither for Math nor English?
 Independent Events

Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence

of one event does not affect the occurrence of others.

Example:
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on
the die.
 Dependent Events
Two events are said to be dependent if the occurrence of
one affects the occurrence of the other.

Example:
1. A bag contains 5 white and 8 black balls, 2 balls are
drawn at random. Find the probability of getting both
the balls white, when the first ball is not replaced.
 Multiplication Rules

The multiplication rules can be used to find the probability

of two or more events that occur in sequence.
 Multiplication Rules
Multiplication Rule 1 When two events A and B are
independent, the probability that A and B will occur is:

P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

Multiplication Rule 2 When two events are dependent,

the probability that A and B will occur is:

P(A and B) = P(A) x P( B/A)

1. Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not
replaced. Find the probability of these.
a. Getting 3 jacks
b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order
c. Getting a flower, a spade, and a heart in order
d. Getting 3 clubs

2. Three cards are drawn in succession, without

replacement, from an ordinary cards. Find the
probability that A B C occurs where A is the
event that first card is a red ace, event B the second
card is 10 or a jack, and events C for third card is
greater than 3 but less than 7.
3. A bag contains 3 pink candies and 7 green candies. Two candies
are taken out from the bag with replacement. Find the probability
that both candies are pink.
4. Jonathan spins 2 spinners; one of which is labelled 1, 2 and 3, and
the other is labelled A, B, C and D. Given that all the outcomes are
equally likely, find the probability that:
a) the spinners stop at 2 and C. b) the spinners stop at 3 and
either B or D
5. Find the probability that three face cards are drawn in three
successive draws (without replacement) form a deck of cards?
6. An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A
ball is selected and its color noted. Then it is replaced. A
second ball is selected and its color noted. Find the probability
of Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball?

7. A drawer contains six black socks, four brown socks, and two
green socks. Suppose that two socks are drawn from the
drawer without replacing the first. Determine the probability of
getting two brown socks.

8. In a sample of 1000 people, 120 are left-handed. Two

unrelated people are selected at random without replacement.
(a) Find the probability that both people are left-handed.
(b) Find the probability that neither person is left-handed.
(c) Find the probability that at least one of the two people is left-
handed.
7. The probability that a husband and wife will be alive
20 years from now are given by .80 and .90
respectively. Find the probability that in 20 years
a.both,
b. neither will be alive
c.At least, one will be alive
 Conditional Probabilities
Given two events A and B, if we want to determine
the probability of the intersection of the two events,
P(AB) we answer this question: What is the probability
that events A and B will occur? If on the other hand, we
want to determine a conditional probability for these
events, we answer a related but different question: What
is the probability of A occurring given that B is known to
have occurred? Or the reverse question: What is the
probability of B given that A is known to have occurred?
The conditional probability of A, given B, denoted by :

P(AB)
P(AB) = ----------------------- provided that P(B) 0
P(B)

The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by :

P(AB)
P(BA) = ----------------------- provided that P(A) 0
P(A)
1. A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women
in the armed forces should be permitted to participate in
combat. The results of the survey are shown.

Gender Yes No Total

Male 32 18 50
Female 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100

Find these probabilities.

a) The respondent answered yes, given that the
respondent was a female.
b) The respondent was a male, given that the
respondent answered no.
2. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs
on time is 0.83, the probability that it arrives on time is
0.92, and the probability that it departs and arrives on
time is 0.78. Find the probability that a plane

(a) arrives on time given that it departed on time, and

(b) departed on time given that it has arrived on time
3. The probability that a married man watches a certain
television show is 0.4 and the probability that a married
woman watches the show is 0.5. The probability that a
man watches the show, given that his wife does, is 0.7.
Find the probability that
a. a married couple watches the show;
b. a wife watches the show given that her husband does;
c. at least one person of a married couple will watch the
show.
4. In Mr. Jonas' homeroom, 70% of the students have brown
hair, 25% have brown eyes, and 5% have both brown hair
and brown eyes. A student is excused early to go to a
doctor's appointment. If the student has brown hair, what is
the probability that the student also has brown eyes?

5. A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class
passed both tests and 42% of the class passed the first
test. What percent of those who passed the first test also
passed the second test?

6. A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability that all three

are heads.
If it is known that the first 2 are heads
If it is known that 2 of them are heads