Seismic Safety, Risk Reduction and

Performance-Based Design
Aimed at Nuclear Facility Structures

Bozidar Stojadinovic, Associate Professor

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

University of California, Berkeley
Outline
What is performance-based design?
How to design structures to reduce risk?
What are the safety-increasing
innovations in structural engineering?
Why should we do this for the new
nuclear cycle in the US?
Performance-Based Design
Design to achieve specified results
rather than to adhere to particular
technologies or prescribed means
(Moehle, EERI Distinguished Lecture, 2005)

Directly address the needs of the owner

or user of the system or structure in
their risk environment
Prescription vs. Performance
A code provision
(ASCE 43-05:
6.2.2(a)):
Minimum joint
reinforcement shall
consist of X-pairs of
#4 diagonal cross-
ties spaced 12 in. on
center.
Prescription vs. Performance
What is the performance?
Is such joint safe?
If so, what is the level of safety?
If so, how much does it cost to be so safe?
Would #3 cross-ties spaced 6 in. on center
be better or worse? Safer? Less expensive?
Easier to build?
Performance-Based Design:
Earthquake Engineering View

Prof. Mahin, CEE 227 Lectures

Performance-Based Design:
Deterministic Quantification

Prof. Mahin, CEE 227 Lectures

Performance-Based Design:
Probabilistic Quantification

Prof. Mahin, CEE 227 Lectures

How to Design for Performance?

Prof. Mahin, CEE 227 Lectures

Probabilistic Framework
Performance-based Evaluation Example :
How Safe are our Bridges?

Type 1 Type 11
Framework for Bridge Evaluation
Hazard Model Select and scale
8

7
ground motions

Magnitude
6

4
0.1 1 10 100 1000
Distance (km)

Demand Model
Intensity Measure (IM)

Damage Model
Damage Measure (DM)

discrete
Decision Model

Damage Measure (DM)

Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP) discrete

continuous
Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP)

continuous
Decision Variable (DV)
Framework for Bridge Evaluation
Hazard Model Do non-linear
C
time-history
L
analyses

Demand Model
Intensity Measure (IM)

Damage Model
Damage Measure (DM)

discrete
Decision Model

Damage Measure (DM)

Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP) discrete

continuous
Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP)

continuous
Decision Variable (DV)
Framework for Bridge Evaluation
Hazard Model Performance
(damage)
states

Demand Model
Intensity Measure (IM)

Damage Model
Damage Measure (DM)

discrete
Decision Model

Damage Measure (DM)

Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP) discrete

continuous
Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP)

continuous
Decision Variable (DV)
Framework for Bridge Evaluation
Hazard Model
Deaths?
Dollars?
Down-time?

Demand Model
Intensity Measure (IM)

Damage Model
Damage Measure (DM)

discrete
Decision Model

Damage Measure (DM)

Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP) discrete

continuous
Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP)

continuous
Decision Variable (DV)
Framework for Bridge Evaluation
Outcome: Repair
cost ratio
fragility
curves

Demand Model

Sa(T1)=1g
Common Probabilistic Basis for
Civil and Nuclear Structures
Given a seismic hazard environment and a
structure, the probability that a performance
objective is achieved is:

PPO P( PO | hazard ) d (hazard )

hazard

Consider probability distributions of seismic

hazard, of demand and of capacity due to:
Lack of knowledge (epistemic uncertainty)
Record-to-record ground motion randomness
(aleatory uncertainty)
Seismic Hazard and
Probability of Failure
Hazard: probability of exceeding a value of
ground motion intensity (hazard curve)
k
PH H ( s ) k0 ( s )
PH
a
PH
a

Failure: a comparison demand and capacity

PF P(C D) P( F sa ) dH ( sa )
sa
DOE-1020 and ASCE 43-05:
(Nuclear) Acceptance Criteria
Probability of failure
is smaller than
PH
probability of hazard RR
Risk reduction ratio PF
at the structure level
Performance Category Risk Reduction Ratio
PC-1 (conventional) RR=1.0
PC-2 (internal exposure risk) RR=1.0
PC-3 (labs, fuel cycle facilities) RR=10.0
PC-4 (experimental reactors) RR=20.0
Conventional Design:
Acceptance Criteria
Probability of failure
is, implicitly,
assumed equal to PF PH
the probability of
hazard
Design equation:

C D
Capacity reduction
Demand
amplification
at the structural
element level
Common
Risk-Informed Design Framework
Hazard vs. Failure

Conventional Structures Nuclear Facility Structures

PH PF PH PF

C
b
D
k
RR
Design Equation
Common
Risk-Informed Design Framework
New nuclear power plants can be designed
using a risk-informed performance-based
framework
Models for most elements of the structure
exist, including aleatory and epistemic
uncertainties
Modeling can be extended to:
Other extreme hazards (natural and man-made)
Ageing effects (construction and maintenance)
Accidents (effects on the environment and society)
Risk-based evaluation is used for some
aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle design today
Innovations in Civil Engineering
(DOE NP2010 Initiative)

Over the past 30 years civil engineering

did not stand still:
Technologies ready for deployment
New and promising technologies worthy of
additional exploration and development
Note: this is just the CE side!
No NE-CE-ME synergies were explored
Ready-to-Use CE Technologies
Response modification Precision blasting for
devices rock removal
Steel-plate sandwich High-deposition rate
structures and robotic welding
Advanced concrete Cable splicing
admixtures 4-D modeling and BIM
Composite plastics for GPS use in construction
reinforcement Open-top installation
Pipe bends vs. welded
elbows
Upcoming CE Technologies
Prefabrication,
preassembly and
modularization
Advanced
information
management and
control during
design and
construction
Earthquake Engineering of
Heavy Structures
35m(115ft)

Large weight, often

Reactor Cavity
Cooling System

positioned high
above the Refueling
Floor

foundation
Combat inertia
Control Rod Drive
Stand Pipes

Generator

forces through: Reactor Pressure

Vessel

Strength Cross Vessel

(Contains Hot &
Cold Duct)

Flexibility 46m(151ft)
Power Conversion
System Vessel

Damping Shutdown Cooling

System Piping
Floors
Typical 32m(105ft)
Steel-plate Sandwich Walls
Steel plate used as:
Form
Reinforcement
Steel-plate Sandwich Walls
Steel plate used as:
Form
Reinforcement
Composite action
with concrete
enabled using studs
Steel-plate
Sandwich Walls
Steel plate used as:
Form
Reinforcement
Composite action
with concrete
enabled using studs
Limited damage
Steel-plate
Sandwich Walls
Steel plate used as:
Form
Reinforcement
Composite action
with concrete
enabled using studs
Limited damage
Steel-plate
Sandwich Walls
Steel plate used as:
Form
Reinforcement
Composite action
with concrete
enabled using studs
Very strong
Very ductilie, too!
Steel-plate Sandwich Walls
Steel plate used as:
Form
Reinforcement
Modular,
prefabricated
components
Rapid construction
Response Modification Devices
Devices designed to
alter dynamic
response of
structures:
Base isolation, to
reduce input
motion/energy
Added damping, to
dissipate energy that
enters the structure
Base Isolation Concept
Provide a soft,
deformable layer
between the
structure and the
ground
Not new!
Sanjusangendo
Temple in Kyoto,
built in 1164
Base Isolation Concept
Base Isolation Benefits
Reduced motion of
the structure
Reduced
acceleration of the
content
Base Isolation Benefits
Reduced motion of
the structure
Reduced
acceleration of the
content
Problems:
Vertical acceleration
Seismic gap
Crossing the gap
Base Isolation Benefits
Reduced motion of
the structure
Reduced
acceleration of the
content
Problems:
Vertical acceleration
Seismic gap
Crossing the gap
Base Isolation Devices:
Laminated Rubber Bearings
Technology
developed in 1980s
Used in non-nuclear
but safety-critical
structures:
LNG tanks
Hospitals
Emergency
command centers
Base Isolation Devices:
Friction-Pendulum Bearings
Technology
developed in 1990s
Used in conventional
building structures
Used in critical
infrastructure:
Bay Area long-span
bridge crossings
Off-shore platforms
Response Modification Devices:
Seismic Dampers

Steel damper Oil damper

Lead damper Friction damper

Why Design Based on
Performance?

Integrate the entire nuclear fuel cycle

design to enable transparent risk-
informed decisions on:
Safety
Security
Economy
Effects on the environment (sustainability)
Safety, Security, Economy and
Sustainability
Use simulation to evaluate effects of hazards:
Anticipate before we build them
Balance safety and economy:
Do what is necessary, no more, no less
Find the sweet spots where small investments
result in significant benefits
Integrate security and sustainability:
Design right from the get-go
Reduce carbon emissions during construction, too!
Be modular, reuse and recycle
How Do We Get There?
A unique opportunity is here:
A new building cycle is starting
There is little institutional memory left:
Bad: there is no experience
Good: there is no experience!

Form cross-disciplinary engineering teams as

early as possible:
State performance objectives, not prescriptions
Work together to formulate the design process
and execute it right!
Role of Civil/Structural
Engineering
Performance-based design:
Utilize advances in conventional design to energize
new nuclear construction
Bridge the engineering skill gap in structural and
earthquake engineering
New and emerging technologies:
Response modification devices
New composite structural systems
Modular construction and maintenance
Modern construction and life cycle management
Thank you!
Bozidar Stojadinovic, Associate Professor
721 Davis Hall #1710
Department of Civil and Env. Engineering
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720-1710

boza@ce.berkeley.edu
http://www.ce.berkeley.edu/~boza