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Continuous random variable: Pumping air in a tire. I can have 0 psi, 20.125
psi, 33.5 psi, etc.
Group Activity: Identity discrete or continue
random variable
A) Measure the time when students, selected at random, submit college
applications.
B) Count the number of bad checks on a day selected at random.
C) Measure the amount of gasoline you put in a car when you fill up the
tank.
D) Random sample of how many people voted in the Presidential Election
Answer
A) Continuous random variable
B) Discrete random variable
C) Continuous Random Variable
D) Discrete random variable
Probability Distribution
Probability distribution is an assignment of probabilities to each distinct
value of a discrete random variable or to each interval of values of a
continuous random variable
Note:
Features of the probability distribution of a discrete random variable
1 5000
2 15000
3 32000
4 23000
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1 2 3 4
AP Score
Answer B
P(3 or 4) = P(3)+P(4)=.74
Group Activity: Frequencies of Alphabets in a
1000-Letter Sample
Letter Freq Prob Letter Freq Prob
A 73 N 78
B 9 O 74
C 30 P 27
D 44 Q 3
E 130 R 77
F 28 S 63
G 16 T 93
H 35 U 27
I 74 V 13
J 2 W 16
K 3 X 5
L 35 Y 19
M 25 Z 1
Questions:
A) Fill out the probability chart
B)do the probabilities of all the letters add up to 1?
C) If a letter is selected at random what is the probability that it will be a
vowel?
A) Just do it
B) yes of course
C) P(a,e,i,o, or u) = 0.378
Mean and standard deviation again!?!
Yes! But its for discrete population probability distribution.
= ( ());
= 2 ();
Then the linear function L= a + bx has mean, variance, and standard deviation
as follows:
= +
2 = 2 2
= 2 2 =
Linear Combinations of Independent Random
variables
1 2 1 2
And 12 22 . = 1 +
2 , , , :
= 1 + 2
2 = 2 12 + 2 22
= 2 12 + 2 22
Uh.so what does that mean? Here are some
examples:
Let
1 2 1 =
75 2 = 50 1 = 16 and 2 = 9
= 3 + 21 = 3 + 2(75)
2 = 2 2 = 22 162 = 1024
= 2 2 = = 2 16 = 32
Continue
Let
1 2 1 =
75 2 = 50 1 = 16 and 2 = 9
= 2 12 + 2 22 = 18.36
Group Work
Let
1 2 1 =
75 2 = 50 1 = 16 and 2 = 9
P(S)= .25
P(F)= .75
1) SSS = (.25)(.25)(.25)=.016
2) Getting at least 1 correct means, all of the outcomes other than FFF. FFF =
(.75)(.75)(.75)= .422. So 1-.422=.578
Continue with the last one:
1) Whats P(1)? (One correct)
2) .141
Are there any way to do this without doing all the
outcomes?
Yes! Its called Binomial probability distribution
What is Binomial Probability Distribution?
You can use this when the outcomes is either success or fail.
!
= = ()
! !
N=number of trials
p=probability of success on each trial
q=1-p=probability of failure on each trial
r=random variable representing the number of success out of n trials (0
)
Example: Basketball shooting example
Mr. Liu makes 30% of his shots. Whats the probability that he makes at least 2
fg out of 4 shots?
n=4
p=.3
q=.7
r=2,3,4
Based on the probabilities, make a prediction how many shots Jamal will
make out of 5?
How to calculate the mean and standard
deviation.
= expected number of successes for random variable r
= is the standard deviation for the random variable r
=
=
Answer
= 4.2
= 1.12
Find out the expected value and standard
deviation for Jamals basketball shooting.
A) What is the expected value for Jamal? Is it the same as you predicted
before?
That means anything higher than 7 and lower than 1.4 are outliers.
How to express binomial probabilities using
equivalent formulas
= 1 = 1 0
P at least two success = P r 2 = 1 0 1
= 3 = 1 0 1 2
= = 1 0 1
1 , 1
Example:
Investments can be profitable as well as risky. Suppose you consider
companies with a 35% estimated risk of default and suppose you want to be
95% certain of meeting your goal of at least 4 good stock. How many stocks
should you buy to meet this goal?
We want 4 .95
Since the probability of success is .65 , we look at the binomial table under
p=0.65 and different values of n to find the smallest value of n that will
satisfy the relation.
Answer
N=10 because 1-0-0-0.004-0.021=.975
Homework Practice
Pg 203 #1-23 odd
The Geometric and Poisson
Probability Distributions
Why do we use Geometric Distribution?
Suppose we have an experiment in which we repeat binomial trials until we
get our first success, and then we stop. Let n be the number of the trial on
which we get our first success. In this context, n is not a fixed number. In
fact, n could be any of the numbers 1,2,3 so on. What is the probability
that our first success comes on the nth trials? Geometric probability
distribution tells us that.
Geometric Probability distribution
= 1 1
Where n is the number of the trial on which the first success occurs
(n=1,2,3) and p is the probability of success on each trial. Note: p must be
the same for each trial.
1 1
= =
Note:
In many real-life situations, we keep on trying until we achieve success. This
is true in areas as diverse as diplomacy, military science, real estate sales,
general marketing strategies, medical science, engineering, and technology
Example:
Robotics class made a robot designed to look for ultrasonic sensor within a
certain time frame. If it does not locate it, it will try again and find it. From
experience, it is only 80% successful. The robot will keep trying until it finds
the sensor or the time is up and it ends.
A) what is the probability that the robots first success will be on attempts
n=1, 2, or 3?
B) If the robot has a max of 3 tries, what is the probability that the robot will
find the sensor?
Answer
n () =
A)
1 (.80)(.20)^0=.80
2 (.80)(.20)^1=.16
3 (.80)(.20)^2=.032
4.76 4.76 0
B) 0 = 0!
4.76 4.76 1
1 = 1!
4.76 4.76 2
2 = 2!
4.76 4.76 3
3 =
3!
C) 4 = 1 0 1 2 (3) =
Group Work
You went to a frozen lake called I-Get-To-Catch-Fish Lake. It is told that on
average, fishermen can fish up to .76 fishes per hour. Suppose you and your
buddy went to go fishing for 6 hours
A) Find a probability distribution for r, the number of fish you catch in a
period of 6 hours
B) What the probability that in 6 hours you will get 0,1,2,3, or 4 fish?
C) Whats the probability you catch 5 of more fish?
Answer
0.76 0.68 6
A) = , 6 = = 0.045
1 1 6
0.045 0.045
= =
! !
0.045 0.045 0
B) 0 =
0!
0.045 0.045 1
1 =
1!
0.045 0.045 2
2 = 2!
0.045 0.045 3
3 = 3!
C) 5 = 1 0 1 2 3 (4) =
How to Approximate Binomial Probabilities Using
Poisson Probabilities
Poisson distribution can be used as a probability distribution for rare events.
0.045 0.045 0
B) 0 =
0!
0.045 0.045 1
1 =
1!
0.045 0.045 2
2 =
2!
0.045 0.045 3
3 =
3!
0.045 0.045 4
4 =
4!
C) 1 4 =
Select appropriate distribution
Identify the type of probability distribution needed to solve the problem:
binomial, geometric, Poisson, or Poisson approximation to the binomial.
Then solve the problem.
1.2 1.2 2
2 = .2169 21.7%
2!
Select appropriate distribution
Identify the type of probability distribution needed to solve the problem:
binomial, geometric, Poisson, or Poisson approximation to the binomial.
Then solve the problem.
() =
n=1254
p=3.6/100000 = .000036
np=.045
Since n=1254 >100 and np=.045 <10 we can use the poisson approximation
0.045 0.045 0
0 = 0!
.956