ESSENTIAL STATISTICS 2E

William Navidi and Barry Monk

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 Basic Concepts in Probability

Section 4.1

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 Objectives
1. Construct sample spaces
2. Compute and interpret probabilities
3. Approximate probabilities using the Empirical Method

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 Objective 1
Construct sample spaces

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 Probability
A probability experiment is one in which we do not know what any
individual outcome will be, but we do know how a long series of
repetitions will come out.

For example, if we toss a fair coin, we do not know what the

outcome of a single toss will be, but we do know what the outcome
of a long series of tosses will be about half heads and half
tails.

The probability of an event is the proportion of times that the event

occurs in the long run. So, for a fair coin, that is, one that is
equally likely to come up heads as tails, the probability of heads is
1/2 and the probability of tails is 1/2.

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 Law of Large Numbers
The Law of Large Numbers says that as a probability
experiment is repeated again and again, the proportion of
times that a given event occurs will approach its
probability.

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 Sample Space
The collection of all the possible outcomes of a probability
experiment is called a sample space.
Example:
Describe the sample space for each of the following:
a) The toss of a coin
The sample space is {Heads, Tails}.
b) The roll of a die
The sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
c) Selecting a student at random from a list of 10,000 at a
large university
The sample space consists of the 10,000 students

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 Probability Model
We are often concerned with occurrences that consist of several
outcomes. For example, when rolling a die, we might be interested
in the probability of rolling an odd number. Rolling an odd number
corresponds to the collection of outcomes {1, 3, 5} from the sample
space {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. In general, a collection of outcomes of a
sample space is called an event.

Once we have a sample space, we need to specify a probability of

each event. This is done with a probability model. We use the letter
to denote probabilities. For example, we denote the probability
that a tossed coin lands heads by (Heads).

In general, if A denotes an event, the probability of event A is

denoted by (A).
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 Objective 2
Compute and interpret probabilities

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 Probability Rules
The probability of an event is always between 0 and 1. In
other words, for any event A, 0 (A) 1.

If A cannot occur, then (A) = 0.

If A is certain to occur, then (A) = 1.

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 Probabilities with Equally Likely Outcomes
If a sample space has equally likely outcomes and an event A has
Number of outcomes in A
outcomes, then (A) = =
Number of outcomes in the sample space

Example:
In the Georgia Cash-4 Lottery, a winning number between 0000 and
9999 is chosen at random, with all the possible numbers being equally
likely. What is the probability that all four digits are the same?

The outcomes in the sample space are the numbers from 0000 to
9999, so there are 10,000 equally likely outcomes in the sample space.
There are 10 outcomes for which all the digits are the same: 0000,
1111, 2222, and so on up to 9999.
10
(All four digits the same) = = 0.001
10,000
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 Sampling is a Probability Experiment
Sampling an individual from a population is a probability
experiment. The population is the sample space and
members of the population are equally likely outcomes.

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 Example: Sampling as a Probability Experiment
There 10,000 families in a certain town categorized as follows:
Own a house Own a condo Rent a house Rent an apartment
4753 1478 912 2857

A pollster samples a single family from this population.

a) What is the probability that the sampled family owns a house?
b) What is the probability that the sampled family rents?
Solution:
a) The sample space consists of 10,000 households. Of these, 4753
4753
own a house. Therefore, (Own a house) = = 0.4753.
10,000
b) The number of families who rent is 912 + 2857 = 3769. Therefore,
3769
(Rents) = = 0.3769.
10,000

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 Unusual Events
An unusual event is one that is not likely to happen. In other words, an
event whose probability is small. There are no hard-and-fast rules as to
just how small a probability needs to be before an event is considered
unusual, but we will use the following rule of thumb.
Any event whose probability is less than 0.05 is considered to be
unusual.

Example:
In a college of 5000 students, 150 are math majors. A student is
selected at random and turns out to be a math major. Is this unusual?
Solution:
The event of choosing a math major consists of 150 students out of a
150
total of 5000. The probability of choosing a math major is = 0.03.
5000
This would be considered an unusual event.
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 Objective 3
Approximate probabilities using the Empirical
Method

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Approximating Probabilities Empirical Method
The Law of Large Numbers says that if we repeat a
probability experiment a large number of times, then the
proportion of times that a particular outcome occurs is likely
to be close to the true probability of the outcome.

The Empirical Method consists of repeating an experiment a

large number of times, and using the proportion of times an
outcome occurs to approximate the probability of the
outcome.

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 Example: Empirical Method
In a recent year, there were 2,046,935 boys and 1,952,451 girls
born in the U.S. Approximate the probability that a newborn baby
is a boy.

Solution:
We compute the number of times the experiment has been
repeated:
2,046,935 + 1,952,451 = 3,999,386 births.
2,046,935
The proportion of births that are boys is = 0.5118. We
3,999,386
approximate (Boy) 0.5118.

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 You Should Know . . .
The Law of Large Numbers
The definition of:
Probability
Sample space
Event
How to compute probabilities with equally likely
outcomes
The rule-of-thumb for determining when an event A is
unusual (if (A) < 0.05)
How to approximate probabilities using the Empirical
Method

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