Comment une entreprise de gaz naturel arrive-t-elle se procurer

un avantage concurrentiel? Le cas Gazprom

Anthony Tabet

23 Novembre 2017
 GAS SALES BY GAZPROM GROUP
Volume and average price* data of Gazprom Group gas Volume and average price* data of Gazprom Group gas
beyond former Soviet Union (FSU)** in FSU
250 250

200 228.3 200

RUB/1,000 m3
RUB/1,000 m3
174.3 184.4
150 150
156.6 151.0 159.4
bln m3

bln m3
148.3 148.1
100 15,057 100
13,487
11,259 11,970 12,138 11,763
50 9,414 9,167 50 81.7
56.7 70.2 66.1 59.4 11,911 10,263
48.1
6,411 7,039 8,509 9,490 8,500 10,116 40.3 33.2
0 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net revenue* from gas sales beyond FSU Net revenue* from gas sales in FSU
3000 2,777 2,686 3000

2500 2500
2,116 2,150
2000 1,764 1,807 2000

RUB bln
RUB bln

1500
1,396 1,358 1500

1000 1000 695 627 505

363 494 486 480
500 500 340

0 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

* Inclusive of (excise tax and) customs duties

** Gas supplies, including LNG and auctioned gas, to foreign countries, except for FSU, under contracts of Gazprom Export and other Gazprom companies

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 GAZPROM GROUPS GAS SALES BEYOND FSU
(UNDER CONTRACTS OF GAZPROM EXPORT AND GAZPROM SCHWEIZ)

bln m3

Total sales in
2016 amounted Germany, 49.8
to 179.3 bln m3

Increase of
19.9 billion m3
(+12.5%) from
Poland, 11.1
previous year

Major gas
France, 11.5
buyers in 2016
were Germany, Turkey, 24.8
Turkey, and
Italy UK
17.9

Italy, 24.7

3
 GAZPROM GROUPS GAS SALES TO FSU IN 2016

bln m3

Gazproms gas
sales in FSU
totaled 33.2 bln
m3* in 2016
Moldova, 3.0
Belarus, 18.3

Kazakhstan, 4.7

* According to consolidated financial

statements of Gazprom prepared underIFRS

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 PIVOTAL ROLE OF GAZPROM GROUPS GAS IN
EUROPEAN MARKET
Gazprom Groups* share in European gas consumption Gazprom Groups* share in European gas imports**
900 26% 27% 25% 23% 27% 26% 30% 30% 31% 33% 500
800 56% 58% 55% 50% 55% 56% 64% 66% 66% 66%
700 598 400
583 564 602 551 542 540 542
600 485 507 271 273 280 274 273
500 300 257 248 255 240
225
400
300 200
200 100
100
0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gas consumption, bln m3 Gas sales by Gazprom Group*, bln m3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Import needs, bln m3
Gazprom Group's share*
Gas sales by Gazprom Group*, bln m3
Gazprom Group's* share
Gas supplies to Europe by major gas exporters and producers
in 2016, bln m3 Short-term forecasts for gas consumption from worlds
200
leading companies (consumption in 2012 = 100%)
179.3
105
150 124.0 100 100.0
100
51.2 46.4 45.5 %95
50 24.0
9.8 8.0
0 90
UK

Qatar

Nigeria
Algeria

Iran
Norway

Netherlands
Group*
Gazpro
m

85
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
* Gas sales to European countries beyond FSU under contracts of Gazprom Export and GAZPROM Schweiz
** Difference between consumption and indigenous production

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 LOW COMMERCIAL ATTRACTIVENESS OF U.S. LNG
SUPPLIES TO EUROPE
Estimated price range* for U.S. LNG supplies in Europe versus forward prices**
in European gas market

In current
environment,
forward contract
prices at European
trading platforms do
not cover full cost of
future U.S. LNG
supplies linked to
Henry Hub prices

* Based on Henry Hub forward prices, P = HH * 115% + X, where X costs (liquefaction, shipments, regasification)
** NBP forward prices
*** Historical data: Russian gas prices, including delivery, at German border (according to World Bank), projected data: based on current forward prices of
Brent and TTF
Sources: Bloomberg, Cheniere Energy, WoodMackenzie, World Bank

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 FORECASTED GROWTH IN GAS-FIRED
POWER GENERATION
Power industry Baseline scenario* 2030 Energy Strategy scenario**
4000
shows highest 4000
TWh
TWh
growth rates in gas 3500
3500
consumption across

714
698

513
682

511
666

508

26.4%
Europe. Even ECs

650

505
503
634

500
Oil

618

497
33.3%

495
602

492
3000

586

489
570

487
3000

554

484
537

481
478
521

476
505

473
489
most radical 473

438
438
Gas
ecology-oriented 2500 2500
Coal
scenario, with
2000
highest subsidies 2000

40.1%
Wind

33.6%
for RES, envisages 1500 Solar and tidal
1500
increased gas use energy, etc.
Biomass
for power 1000 1000
generation. Hydro
According to 500 500
Nuclear
baseline scenario,
0 0
by 2025 gas-fired

2026
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024

2028
2030
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030

power generation in
EU will grow by * 21% increase in energy efficiency by 2030, 33% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 versus 1990, 24.4% share of
one-third versus RES in primary energy consumption by 2030.
2015. ** 27% increase in energy efficiency by 2030, 40% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 versus 1990, 27% share of
RES in primary energy consumption by 2030.
Source: European Commission, ENTSO-E

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 USE OF NATURAL GAS AS VEHICLE FUEL IN LONG TERM
Between 2013 and 2016:
Number of Gazprom Groups gas filling stations in Europe increased from 23 to 69
In 2016, Gazprom Group entered Serbias NGV market, with retail services offered
at two stations
Gazproms supplies of CNG and LNG to its own and third-party gas filling stations
grew from 4.8 to 14.6 mln m3
In collaboration with local companies, Gazprom NGV Europe (part of Gazprom
Group) implements Europes first projects for introducing LNG as vehicle fuel in
public bus transportation in Poland: 11 buses in Olsztyn and 35 buses in Warsaw

Gazproms sales of gas as vehicle fuel through its

Prospects for gas demand increase in transportation
own and third-party stations, mln m3/year
16 sector:
14
12 Serbia Heavy-duty truck can consume up to 200300 kg of
10 Czech Republic
LNG daily
8 Transportation company with 2040 trucks consumes
Poland several mln m3 of gas per year
6
4 Germany Europes demand for natural gas as vehicle fuel can
2 reach up to 27 billion m3 by 2025*
0
2013 2014 2015 2016
* ACER (Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators) forecast.

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 UNDERGROUND GAS STORAGE: ENSURING STABLE,
RELIABLE AND FLEXIBLE SUPPLIES

2016: development of Europes underground gas storage network

During 2016/2017 withdrawal season, Gazprom

Bergermeer Rehden operated 5 bln m3 of storage capacities in Europe.
Katharina
Damborice Maximum daily deliverability of UGS facilities in
Haidach Western Europe was 83.3 mln m3 during
2016/2017 withdrawal season.
Banatski Dvor

Katharina and Damborice UGS projects are in progress:

Katharina UGS facility has 6 operational caverns with total working capacity of 315 mln m3 and maximum daily
deliverability of 23.2 mln m3. On April 1, 2017, UGS surface facilities were brought onstream.
On July 1, 2016, Damborice UGS facility with design working capacity of 456 million m3 was put into operation in Czech
Republic. At present, Gazprom has access to 156 mln m3 of Damborices storage capacity, with maximum daily
deliverability standing at 3.7 mln m3.

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 NORD STREAM 2
Nord Stream 2 project envisages construction of
gas pipeline across Baltic Sea with entry point in
Kingisepp District of Leningrad Region and exit
point near Greifswald in Germany

Length of gas pipeline: around 1,200 km

Annual capacity: 55 bln m3 of gas

In addition to higher reliability of supplies, Nord

Stream 2 project is consistent with EU objectives
for energy security and harmful emissions
reduction

Nord Stream 2 AG project company was set up to

deliver project

Nord Stream 2 AG signed financing agreements

with ENGIE, OMV, Royal Dutch Shell, Uniper, and
Wintershall for Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project

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 TURKSTREAM
TurkStream is project for transit-free export gas pipeline
stretching across Black Sea from Russia to Turkey and
further to Turkey's border with neighboring countries

First string (15.75 bln m3 in capacity) of gas pipeline is

intended for Turkish consumers, while second string (with
same capacity) will deliver gas to EU countries

On October 10, 2016, Russian and Turkish Governments

signed Agreement on TurkStream project

South Stream Transport B.V., wholly-owned subsidiary

of Gazprom, is responsible for construction of gas pipelines
offshore section

On May 7, 2017, pipe-laying of TurkStream gas pipeline

started near Russian coast (Audacia vessel owned
by Allseas)

Pioneering Spirit, worlds largest pipe-laying vessel, has

arrived in port of Anapa to build TurkStream pipeline in deep-
water area of Black Sea

TurkStream is expected to come onstream before late 2019

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION!