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2. A secure nation
competitiveness indexes
1. Low productivity
6. Fiscal constraints
The main Workspaces
R. E. Lucas Jr.
Egypt
Tabla A: Egypt, India and Indonesia: Economic Growth
(1975-2007)
Indonesia
Numerous views about driving forces behind India’s Growth experience
not.
incumbents go bankrupt.
1942).
wave.
mechanisms (in our case, firm activity) that impact growth at the
micro-level.
Ownership and Competitive Efficiency
1. What was the industrial composition by ownership before and after the
reforms of 1991?
firms changed?
4. What has happened to average firm size, market share and industry
– Continuing incumbent control shares of assets, sales & profits accounted for
liberalization (with shares higher than 50%), incumbents remain the dominant
1. Rates of return remain remarkably stable over time and show low dispersion
combined with their dominant shares of assets, sales and profits are
• The major exception to the pattern of incumbent firm dominance is seen in the
growth of private firms in the services industries between 2001 and 2007.
– Asset, sales & profit shares of private firms in business and IT services,
• Also consistent with the growth in services documented in the aggregate data.
Findings: Lingering Restrictions
– Topalova (2007) very little exit at the firm level in India’s industry data;
– Goldberg et al. (2008) net product creation following trade liberalization was
of product lines;
banks, fails to pull the plug on firms that ought to have been long shut down.
groups).
may have incentives to oppose the liberalization efforts (Rajan & Zingales,
2004, 2005).
– These results are consistent with findings in Chari and Gupta (2008) focusing on
FDI liberalization.
The Data
• Firm-level data from the Prowess database collected by the Centre for Monitoring the Indian
Economy.
• Coverage:
•
• The companies covered account for more than 70% of industrial output, 75% of corporate taxes,
and more than 95% of excise taxes collected by the Government of India.
Advantages of the data set
• Average of more than 17,000 firms across sample period 109 3-digit
• Inclusion of services
ownership category).
Pattern broadly mimicked within all three sectors with the highest growth in
services.
DYNAMIC GROWTH in PRIVATE & Foreign-OWNED ASSETs (Table 2)
And Profits (Table 4)
LIMIted dispersion in roa across owners
Return on Assets (Table 5)
Continuing incumbent control? (Table 7)
Continuing incumbent control? (Table 7)
• Sectors dominated by SOE & BG firms before 1991 (with fractions higher
liberalization.
• Exceptions are seen in services where private and foreign firms accounted
for substantial fractions of not only numbers of firms but also fractions
• The combined role of private and foreign firms peaked at close to 25% in
recent years.
•
Market dynamics & competitive Efficiency
Full Sample
Market Share
27 16 14 11
Herfindahl Index 0,40 0,38 0,33 0,30
Market dynamics & competitive Efficiency (Table 10)
FDI Deregulation
Before After
Market Share 10,14 3,93
Herfindahl Index 0,22 0,17
Conclusions (1)
• Between 1986 and 2007, Indian growth put to rest the concern that there
was something about the ‘nature of India’ that made rapid growth
difficult.
• Following broad-ranging reforms in the mid 1980s and early 1990s, the
• In this paper we analyze the evolution of India’s industrial composition by focusing on the
• We examine the evolution of India’s industrial structure at the firm-level following the
reforms.
• We also examine whether entry took place and if so, did it happen at the expense of
• Finally, we examine the evolution of firm size, market share and industry concentration
over time and in industries that were liberalized to either domestic or foreign entry or
trade.
Conclusions (3)
• Creation in India seems to have been driven by new entrants in the private sector and
foreign firms.
• Sectoral transformation in India does not, however, seem to have gone through an
industrial shake out phase in which incumbent firms are replaced by new ones.
• Sectors in which state-owned enterprises and private business groups dominated activity
• Interestingly, many of the older firms (pre-independence) have on average withstood the
• Certainly, the welfare implications of our findings are not clear cut especially in light of the
current international financial crisis and the increased role of the government in
• It may, however, be hard to justify the extent of state-owned presence that we continue to
improvements in efficiency.
…and lingering questions
• Recent literature highlights the idea that economic growth may be impeded not simply because of
a lack of resources such as capital, skilled labor, and entrepreneurship but also because
• High levels of state-ownership and ownership by business group affiliated firms in India raise the
question of whether existing resources could be allocated more efficiently and whether the
While rates of return across ownership groups do not display significant dispersion, it is not
clear whether the rates of return for the incumbent groups are being driven by the
monopoly power that comes with high industry concentration or through inherent
efficiency.
• Policy question: will privatization in the context of high industry concentration simply replace
• High accumulation of assets in private and foreign firms in all sectors of the economy, but in
particular in transports, utilities, business & IT services, financial services, and other
services.
• Lower panel shows asset accumulation across sectors, suggesting an increasing role for the
service sectors.
• Growth of assets is far more dramatic in financial services, business and IT services, transport,