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Process Development Based

on Model Mining and Experiment


Design Techniques

János Abonyi

University of Pannonia
Department of Process Engineering

SAMI, The 8th International Symposium on Applied Machine Intelligence and Informatics,
Herlany, Slovakia, January, 28-30, 2010
Computational
Intelligence
in Data Mining

CI in
modeling
and
control

Advanced Model Based


Process Engineering
Tools
www.fmt.uni-pannon.hu/softcomp 2/15
Outline

Motivation – applicable and useful


– Machine learing and data mining - requirements of ISO 9001

Quality management systems


- supported by data warehouse and data mining

Applications in the polimrization industry

Summary
3/15
• Total GDP grows with approximately 2%.
• Chemical market growth below average GDP growth.
• Most investments go to
Middle or Far East, in particular China.
• High dependence on external influences (feedstock prices).
• Increasing competition.

The existing plant


capacity
has to be used
optimally!

Source: Bram Jansen and Olaf Abel, BASF Antwerpen N.V., STI – Automation Services,
4/15
2004
Realted R&D problem

• „Optimization of continuous multi-product processes”


– a research project of Cooperative Reseach Centre of Chemical
Engineering Insitute and TVK Plc.
– with realization in a poly-propylene plant of TVK Plc., Hungary
(>10 high value added products, process transitions)

• Main Tasks
– Development of Process
Engineering tools and approches
– Industral application opportunities
(CAPE tools)
– Education (university and plant)

5/15
Business Plan vs. Actual

Business Results Planning

Common Limits & Boundaries


Common Data & Visualisation

Schedule Adherence
Yield Accounting;
Production
Well Allocations; Scheduling
Batch Tracking

Operating Envelope

Operations
Operations Monitoring Operating Instructions

Operator Efficiency

Procedures
Procedure Analysis Procedure Execution

Process Control
Controls

Complexity – Information requirement - historical process data

weeks ago days ago hours ago now hours ahead days ahead ronths ahead

Reviews, Reports Execution Decisions 6/15


Knowledge Discovery in Databases:
Extraction of interesting (non-trivial, implicit, previously unknown and
potentially useful) information or patterns from data in large
databases.

Prior
Knowledge,
goals
Data
Analysis,
Modeling
+ Simulation

Database

Technology 7/15
A good methodology should be based on the requitements of the
EN ISO 9001:2008 – Quality Management Systems
European Standard

5.4.1 Set quality


objects ...
7.5.3 Identification and
traceability
7.6 Control of monitoring
and measirung
equipment
8.4 Analysis of data

8/15
ISO 9001:2008
8. Measurement, analysis and improvement

• 8.1 General
• The organization shall plan and implement the
monitoring, measurement, analysis and
improvement processes needed
– a, to demnostrate conformity of product requirements
– b, to ensure confromity of quality management system, and
– c, to continually improve the efectiveness
of the quality management system.
• This shall include determination of application methods,
including statistical techniques,
and extent of their use

9/15
PDCA cycle
– „performance monitoring” system
Plan: establish objectives and
P
processes necessary to deliver LA
N

T
ANALYSIS
result in accordance with IMPROVEMENT

C
A
STANDARDISATION SETTING GOALS
customers reqirements and POSSIBLE REASONS
FEEDBACK AND
organization’s policies DEVELOPMENT BENCHMARK, BEST PRACTICE

DETERMINATION OF
RESPONSIBILTY
Do: implement the processes
CONTROL AND VALIDATION IMPLEMENTATION
Check: monitor and measure EVALUATION OF DATA EXECUTION OF PROCESSES

processes and products against REPORTS DATA COLLECTION


policies, objectives and C
TRACE

requirements for the product and H


EC

O
report the result K

D
Act: take actions to contiunally
improve process performance

Improving quality
10/15
„Anyone can reach a given setpoint or value by controlling the paramete
in a technology, but to keep it continously near those setpoints wh
production goes in a reproducible way, that is a challenge.”
A. Kiss, senior plant engineer, TVK Plc.

Plant (process)
Graphical User Interface
PV PV
Operator
OP DCS SP SP

PV SP SP Calc. PV
PROCESS LEVEL
Process Computer

ANALYSIS LEVEL
PVszám.
SP,PV. Advanced Process
Control System SP

Graphicalsimulator
Statistical Tools model
PROCESS

interface
DATA SP
Data Mining Tools WAREHOUSE
PV Reactor System PVszám.
model

Process simulator 11/15


Data warehouse for supporting quality management
systems is a subject-oriented, integrated collection of
historical process data, which can provide appropriate
basis for tracing the product and monitoring the production.

Digital Control System • Technology


– Polymerization, granulation units and
PHD quality control laboratory
(Honeywell)
– Honeywell DCS, PHD module – 15 sec
– Lab qualification – 2 hours
– ~2 years of operation, 2.5 GB
• Data warehouse
– MySQL SQL-server,
mySQL
DataWarehouse – MSAccess, EXCEL
(user interface)
Laboratory

– MATLAB - Database Toolbox, in-house


(models, engineering cal.)
• Process Simulator
– MATLAB Simulink (dynamic models)
ACESS
(MS)
Post-processing

12/15
ProductionR
ate
1

ProdRate (t/h)
• Time horizons, delays
• First principle and semi- O
T
rig.Data
echn.M dl.output

mechanistic models
APC .Mdl.output

0.5
04-March 06-March

• Quality estimation 1st loopreactor


1

Res.Time(h)
0

2nd loopreactor

Res.Time(h)
1

04-M
arch 06-M
arch

MFI

13/15
The model integrates the organization
14/15
ISO 9001:2008
8.4. Analysis of data

• The organization shall determine, collect and analyse


appropriate data
– to demonstrate the suitability and effectiveness of quality management
system
– and to evaluate where continual improvement of quality
management system can be made
• The analysis of data shall provide information related to:
– Customer satisfaction
– Conformity of product requirements
– Chracteristics and trends of processes and products, inlcuding
opportunities for preventive actions
– Suppliers

– PMS: What are the purposes of indicators? What kind of


conformation, preventive and improvement processes are applled?

15/15
Key performance indicators
might be the basis of technology development

App. Advantages by application

Visualization Requirement for graphs and figures

Distribution Appropriate information for appropriate locations

Analysis Aggregation, engineering computations

Context Product, machinery, organize by plants

Data collection, integration of information


Data collection sources

16/15
TVK LDPE-2 Performance Monitoring /1. phase/

Parameters of production
(comparing trends of certain products,
production periods)

NORM - Costs
PHD Specific raw material demand
/C2, O2, PA, Comonomer, Additive/
PERFORMANCE
MONITORING EFFECTS OF FACTORS ON
SYSTEM PRODUCTION
EXAMINATION OF CONTINOUS
PRODUCTION
Polymer /Analysis of states of he plant/
quality control
(MySQL Database) ENERGY
specific demands, efficiency
(electronic devices, gross energy demand)

Távlati tervek: - preparing for service Quality


Production – Product qualit connection analysis
- maximal productbility
/trends, feedbacks/
- reducing quantity of off-grade
- assure constant quality
- predicition of MI and density
Tiszaújváros, 17
CRISP methodology (2000) –
ISO 9001:2008 compatible?
Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining

Define and Get to know data


understand the
business goals

Application of
result for
Handling the data
business
purposes

DATA
Creating data
mining models

Evaluation of
result fot
business goals

18/15
Business Data Data
Modeling Evaluation Deployment
Understanding understanding preparation

7.1 Planning of
Select modeling
technique Modeling Model product realization
techniques assumption
. 7.3.2 Design and
development inputs

7.2 Customer related


Generate Test
Design Test design processes

7.5 Production and


Build model
Parameter Model service provision
settings Models description

Assess model
7.6 Monitoring and
Revision of
Model parameter
measuring
assessment setting equipments
19/15
Application examples ...

• Costing based on Exploratory Data


Analysis :
– Box-plots: analyzing evaluation 1 1 1 1 1

– Quantile-quantile plots:
0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

cost – process variable 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

• Correlation hunting 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

– Classification, clustering 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

– Regression
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

– Frequent itemsets 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

0 0 0 0 0

Possible to determine the most economic


operating parameters of a plant!! 20/15
0.9933

0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 5 10

0.9736

5
75 5
75 5
75
0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 5 10

0.9708
5
70 5
70 5
70

0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 5 10


5
65 5
65 5
65
0.9623

5
60 5
60 5
60
0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 5 10
kg/m3

0.9618
5
55 5
55 5
55
0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 5 10

5
50 5
50 5
50 0.9437

0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 5 10


5
45 5
45 5
45
0.9347

5
40 5
40 5
40 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 5 10
2
006
-0
3-2
413
:3
5:0
0.0 2
006
-0
5-0
210
:5
0:0
0.0 2
006
-0
5-1
200
:0
0:0
0.0
2
006
-0
3-2
710
:0
7:0
0.0 2
006
-0
5-0
302
:0
5:0
0.0 2
006
-0
5-1
206
:0
0:0
0.0
0.9259

Box-plots 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 0 5 10

Fuzzy and Associative Classification

Quantile-quantile plots 21/15


Process Monitoring based
on Multivariate Statistical Analysis
U-matrix Melt index H2conc(R201) H2conc(R202)
• Problem: 7.28 4.01 4.58 4.61

How to simultaneously monitor 3.65 1.52 1.92 1.91

10 - 100 process variables? 0.0289 -0.962 -0.742 -0.783


n n n
• Solution: H2inlet(R201) H2inlet(R202) CATinlet Temp.(R200)
Reduce the dimensionality of the 4.21 3.98 2 0.856

correlated process data by projecting 1.62 1.46 -0.244 -0.296

them down onto a lower dimensional -0.962 -1.06 -2.49 -1.45


latent variable space n n n n

• Tools: Temp.(R201)
5.13
Temp.(R202) SlurryDens.(R201)
5.04
SlurryDens.(R202)
1.27 1.21
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) 0.129 0.0809 -0.619 -0.701
and/or
-4.88 -4.88 -2.5 -2.61
Self-organizing Maps (SOM). n n n n

• Beside process performance SOM10-Sep-2007


monitoring, these tools can be used for
system identification, estimate the
product quality, and for product design.

22/15
Product Quality Estimation
• Problem U-matrix
4.72
Melt index
4.01
H2 conc(R201)
4.58

We need accurate models 2.37 1.53 1.92

• Solution 0.0137
n
-0.955
n
-0.742

Semi-mechanistic models: Discrete estimation


Neural networks or SOM models H2 conc(R202)
4.61
H2 inlet(R201)
4.21
H2 inlet(R202)
3.98

describe the unknown phenomena of the 1.91 1.63 1.46

system that cannot be formulated by -0.783 -0.955 -1.05

prior knowledge based differential n n n

equations. SOM 12-Sep-2007

BB1
[C2]
u1 x̂1
u2 x̂2 y1 TR MIcur

y2 [C6pol ]
ui FP1 x̂ j
h yk

BB1 FP2
FP2
dMI ξ 1  ξ − L MI ξ − MI ξ dP 
= ∑ ki [i ]L[cat ]P ⋅MI cur
dt P  i out cur cur dt 

23/15
ProductionR
ate
1

ProdRate (t/h)
• Time horizons, delays
• First principle and semi- O
T
rig.Data
echn.M dl.output

mechanistic models
APC .Mdl.output

0.5
04-March 06-March

• Quality estimation 1st loopreactor


1

Res.Time(h)
0

2nd loopreactor

Res.Time(h)
1

04-M
arch 06-M
arch

MFI

24/15
The model integrates the organization
Further goals – in item 7.3.2 of ISO 9001:2008
Input for design shall include information from previous
(similar designs)

25/15
26/15
The missing link – Experiment
design
Condition of experiments Measurement Model structure,
Param.
Measuring Creating an invers
Experiment
Experiment equipments problem, solution
design

Initial states.,
Operating
Input param. Numerical Calculated outputs, states regimes
Initial conditions simulation And measurements

Matthematical
models
Iterativ model tuning

Initial knowledge and


intuition Extended knowledge

Iterative experiment development

Experiments and design of experiment connect


the modeling/simulation and measurements!!!

(Marquardt) 27/15
Conclusions

• Optimization of operating processes, extensive use of process knowledge


• The model integrates the organization
– How to manage the plant?
– How to develop the research and engineering activities?
– How to decide about the products?
– How to make strategic decisions?

• To answer these questions we need to know


– modelling- & simulation techniques
– data-exploration techniques,
– process optimization techniques.

• Data-driven OSS for flexible multi-product processes


– Human-computer interaction: front-end tools
– Extract most informative features: multivariate statistical analysis
– Integrated modeling and simulation

28/15
Summary

Processes of technology development and data


mining have similar constructions
(methodically)
Quality
ISO 9001 defines the processes of data development
analysis and technology development Hibaelemzés
Explore correspondences, Váltási stratégiák
Legjobb üzemeltetési változó
CRISP – DM (1.0) is almost analogous modeling, data mining Termelési program

to ISO 9001 Comperableness


Documentation
(productions, transitions,
(automatic reports)
Creating data mining technology parameters)
which inserted to integrated
business control and technology Monitoring the operation of technology
(long timehorizon, even more years in the past)
development system is
strongly suggested, Handling different kind of data in an unified framework
in other words (labour and operational, more plants)
refining the CRIPS-DM
29/15
Thank you ...
30/15