By: Pranav Munjal

Class: VIII-D
A civil war is a war between organized groups within
the same state or country, or, less commonly, between
two countries created from a formerly united state.The
aim of one side may be to take control of the country or a
region, to achieve independence for a region or to
change government policies.
A civil war is a high-intensity conflict, often involving
regular armed forces, that is sustained, organized and
large-scale. Civil wars may result in large numbers of
casualties and the consumption of significant resources.
The "independence flag" of Syria, used before the
Ba'athist coup in 1963, has been widely used by
protesters as an opposition flag and has been adopted
officially by the Syrian National Coalition and the Free
Syrian Army.
 The Syrian civil war is an ongoing armed conflict
in Syria between forces loyal to the Syrian Ba'ath
Party government and those seeking to oust it.
The conflict began on 15 March 2011, with popular
demonstrations that grew nationwide by April 2011.
These demonstrations were part of the wider Middle
Eastern protest movement known as the Arab Spring.
Protesters demanded the resignation of
President Bashar al-Assad, whose family has held the
presidency in Syria since 1971, as well as the end of
Ba'ath Party rule.
 The war in Syria, which has been raging for more than
three years, is much more than a local, national issue.
Millions of Syrian refugees have flooded into
neighbouring Jordan to the south, into Lebanon to the
west and into Turkey to the north.
Because of the extremely fluid situation on the
ground, as well as the dangerous conditions for
journalists that exist, accurate up-to-date information
is difficult to obtain. Over three years of fighting and
horrific human rights abuses have led to an
increasingly sectarian patchwork of groups, beset by
shifting alliances and power struggles.
In June 2013, the death toll was updated to 92,900100,000 by the
United Nations. According to various opposition activist groups,
between 72,960 and 96,430 people have been killed, of which
about half were civilians, but also including 58,500 armed
combatants consisting of both the Syrian Army and rebel forces,
up to 1,000 opposition protesters and 1,000 government officials.
 For the foreseeable future, no government will be able to
rule all of what was the modern state of Syria.
A political settlement is unlikely.
Assad's willingness to surrender his chemical weapons will
neither end the conflict nor weaken his regime.
The sectarian undercurrents that divide the country and
the region have become the central pathology of the Syrian
conflict they will impede its resolution.
Syria's national institutions are eroding they are being
replaced by local and foreign loyalties.
Foreign fighters flocking to Syria pose a future
international terrorist threat.
There is no real consensus on how to resolve the Syrian
conflict, but there is one regarding the urgent need to. It has
become an imperative to stop the fanatical jihadis in their
tracks before they become an unstoppable global menace.
The divergence of opinions on how to best go about this
unfortunately has less to do with pragmatism or the political
and military realities of the conflict, and instead reflects the
specific interests of those who hold them. While the world
argues and procrastinates, a terrifying threat is slowly
emerging from the chaos of Syrias civil war: transnational
jihadist terrorism. The premise is very simple. In order to end
that threat, a workable resolution to its cause must be found.
1)Assad victory
Although this is more likely than before due to continued support from
Iran and Russia, the entry of Hezbollah fighters into the fray, and
continued fragmentation among the rebels, it is not very likely because
the regime lacks the manpower and resources to reconquer all the
territory lost.
2) Good rebel victory
At the moment, this likely needs significant outside assistance to happen.
Iranian and Hezbollah aid has to be curtailed. A significant number of
Alawites have to be convinced that they will be safe after they lay down
their arms.
3) Bad rebel victory
In this case, extremist groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra, which has
announced its allegiance to al-Qaida, take advantage of the curtailing of
Iranian aid and foreign assistance to claim victory. This would lead to
massive retribution and a rigid orthodoxy. It would also produce an even
greater refugee crisis, as millions of Alawites and Christians flee into
Lebanon and Turkey.
4) Stalemate
At this point, a stalemate is very likely. The two sides are not strong
enough to control all or even most of the country. If either side
makes significant gains, the other is likely to be reinforced from
abroad.
5) Country breakup
The longer the war goes on, the more likely this will happen. In
some ways, it already has. The existing regime, backed by Alawites,
many Christians, and some of the old Sunni elite, would retain
control over a strip of land that included Damascus and much of
the coast.
6) Regional conflict
The likelihood of this also increases the longer the war goes on.
Lebanon and Iraq have already suffered from spillover: bombs have
gone off in South Beirut and Tripoli in the past week and Sunni
extremists have been strengthened in Iraq in recent months.
7) Chaos
This is the Somalia scenario. An extended period of statelessness
and persistent conflict would institutionalize a war economy, and
give emerging warlords, militia leaders, and criminal networks a
vested interest in continuing the conflict.