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Venue
Date
RESIDUAL INCOME
Economic
Profit
Abnormal Residual
Earnings
Income
Economic
Value
Added
RESIDUAL INCOME
Capital Residual
NOPAT
Charge Income
EXAMPLE: RESIDUAL INCOME
EBIT $400,000
Economic
Value
NOPAT C% TC
Added
(EVA)
Valuation
RIt Et re Bt 1
Beginning
Residual Earnings Required book
income per share return on value per
per share (EPS) equity (Re) share
(BVPS)
EXAMPLE: FORECASTING RESIDUAL INCOME
0 1 2
RIt
V0 B0
t 1 (1 r )
t
Et rBt 1
V0 B0
t 1 (1 r )
t
EXAMPLE: VALUATION USING RESIDUAL
INCOME
From the Previous Example:
Beginning book value at time 0 = $20.00
Residual income in Year 1 = $0.50
Residual income in Year 2 = $0.85
Required return on equity = 10%
Additionally, Assume:
Residual income in Year 3 = $1.00
The firm ceases operations in three years
EXAMPLE:
VALUATION USING RESIDUAL INCOME
RIt ROEt r Bt 1
ROE r
V0 B0 B0
rg
V0 ROE r
1
B0 rg
EXAMPLE:
USING A SINGLE-STAGE RESIDUAL INCOME MODEL
ROE r
V0 B0 B0
rg
0.18 0.12
V0 $30 $30
0.12 0.08
$1.80
V0 $30 $75.00
0.12 0.08
EXAMPLE:
USING A SINGLE-STAGE RESIDUAL INCOME MODEL
Suppose that the current stock price is $80 in the
previous example. What is the implied growth rate?
0.18 0.12
$80 $30 $30
0.12 g
$1.80
$50
0.12 g
g 8.4%
CONTINUING RESIDUAL INCOME
Potential Scenarios:
RI is constant forever
RI is zero at the terminal period
RI gradually declines to zero, where ROE = r
RI gradually declines to a constant level,
where ROE > r
CONTINUING RESIDUAL INCOME
AND PERSISTENCE FACTORS
Et rE Bt 1
T 1
Et rE BT 1
V0 B0 T 1
t 1 (1 rE ) (1 rE )(1 rE )
t
Persistence Factor ()
01
= 1 Residual income will not fade
= 0 Residual income will not persist after the initial forecast to rise
= 0.62 It has been observed, on average, empirically
EXAMPLE: MULTISTAGE
RESIDUAL INCOME MODEL
Now Assume:
The firm continues operations after three years
EXAMPLE: MULTISTAGE MODEL
CASE 1: = 0
Et rE Bt 1
T 1
ET rE BT 1
V0 B0 T 1
t 1 (1 rE ) t
(1 rE )(1 rE )
$0.50 $0.85 $1.00
V0 $20
1.10 1.10 (1 0.10 0)(1.10 )
1 2 2
Et rE Bt 1
T 1
ET rE BT 1
V0 B0 T 1
t 1 (1 rE ) t
(1 rE )(1 rE )
$0.50 $0.85 $1.00
V0 $20
1
1.10 1.10 2
(1 0.10 1.0)(1.102 )
$0.50 $0.85 $1.00
V0 $20 1
2
1.10 1.10 (0.10)(1.102 )
V0 $29.42
EXAMPLE: MULTISTAGE MODEL
CASE 3: = 0.60
Et rE Bt 1
T 1
ET rE BT 1
V0 B0 T 1
t 1 (1 rE ) (1 rE )(1 rE )
t
T
Et rE Bt 1 PT BT
V0 B0
t 1 (1 rE ) (1 rE )
t T
Dividend and
Residual Income
FCFE Model
Model Valuation
Valuations
Required return
on equity Required return
on equity
Book value + PV
(residual income) PV (equity cash
flows)
EXAMPLE: RESIDUAL INCOME AND
DIVIDEND MODELS
Example Assumptions
Value =
Value =
PV (Early cash
Book value + PV
flows + Terminal
(residual income)
value)
Strengths Weaknesses
Most Appropriate
At non-dividend-paying firms
At firms without free cash flows
When terminal values are highly uncertain
Least Appropriate
When the clean surplus relationship does not hold
When the determinants of residual income are not
predictable
CLEAN SURPLUS ACCOUNTING
Beginning Ending
book Net book
Dividends
value of income value of
equity equity
ACCOUNTING ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE
RESIDUAL INCOME MODEL
Example Adjustment to Financial Statement
Over several years, Firm A has Adjust net income downward
consistently recorded losses in its
available-for-sale securities
Firm B consistently capitalizes Adjust net income and book value
expenditures that should have been downward
expensed
Firm C has recorded foreign currency Adjust net income downward
translation losses on its balance sheet
over several years; the losses are
expected to continue
Firm D accelerates revenues to the Adjust net income and book value
current period and defers expenses to downward
later periods
SUMMARY