Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
1
Forecastingistheprocessofmakingstatements
abouteventswhoseactualoutcomes(typically)
havenotyetbeenobserved.
Predictionisasimilar,butmoregeneralterm.
Riskanduncertaintyarecentraltoforecastingand
prediction;itisgenerallyconsideredgood
practicetoindicatethedegreeofuncertainty
attachingtoforecasts.
2
Forecasting
Marketing:Forecastssalesfornewand
existingproducts.
Production:usessalesforecaststoplan
productionandoperations;sometimes
involvesingeneratingsalesforecasts
3
Time Horizon for Forecasting
Thekeyfactorinchoosingaproperforecasting
approachisthetimehorizonforthedecision
requiringforecasting.Forecastscanbemade
forvarioustimeframes:
1. Short-term
2. Mid-term
3. Long-term
4
Short- term Forecasting
Short-term(1dayto3months),managersare
interestedinforecastsfordisaggregateddemand
(forspecificproduct,forspecificgeography,etc)
Littletimetoreacttoerrorsindemandforecast,
sotheforecastsneedtobeasaccurateas
possible.
Timeseriesanalysisisoftenused.
Inabsenceofhistoricaldatamanagersuse
judgementmethods.
5
Medium- term Forecasting
Timehorizonformediumterm(3monthsto
24months).
Relatestoaggregateplanning(sales&
operationsplanning).
Mediumtermforecastsisusedtobuildup
seasonalinventory
Bothtime-seriesandcausalmethodsare
used.
6
Long-term-Forecasting
Timehorizonexceedstwoyears
Longtermforecastsareusedforprocess
selection,capacityplanning&location
decisions.
Judgementmodels&causalmodelsareused.
7
Forecasting (Objective & Subjective)
Thevariouscategoriesofforecastingmethods
thatareavailabletobusinesses:
Forecastingmethodscanbeeitherobjective
(usingquantitative approaches)or;
Subjective (usingmoreintuitiveorqualitative
approaches),dependingonwhatdatais
availableandthedistanceintothefuturefor
whichaforecastisdesired.
8
Types of Forecasting Methods
1. SubjectiveMethods
Salesforcecomposites
CustomerSurvey
Juryofexecutiveopinion
DelphiMethods
2.ObjectiveMethods
CasualMethods
Time-SeriesMethods
9
Qualitative Forecasting
Qualitativeforecastingtechniquesare
subjective,basedontheopinionand
judgmentofconsumers,experts
Theyareappropriatewhenpastdataarenot
available.
Theyareusuallyappliedtointermediate-or
long-rangedecisions.
10
Quantitative Forecasting
Quantitativeforecastingmodelsareusedto
forecastfuturedataasafunctionofpast
data;theyareappropriatewhenpastdataare
available.
Thesemethodsareusuallyappliedtoshort-
orintermediate-rangedecisions.
11
Subjective Methods
12
2. Customer Survey: Marketersaskbuyersabout
howmanyunitsthattheywouldliketopurchase
fromABCcompanysproductsforcomingperiod
oftime.
13
3. Jury of Executive Opinion Method:
IntheJuryofexecutiveopinionmethodofSales
Forecasting,appropriatemanagerswithinthe
organizationassembletodiscusstheiropinions
onwhatwillhappentosalesinthefuture.
Sincethesediscussionsessionsusuallyresolve
aroundexperiencedguesses,theresulting
forecastisablendofinformedopinions.
14
4. Delphi Method alsogathers,evaluates,andsummarizesexpert
opinionsasthebasisforaforecast,buttheprocedureismore
formalthanthatforthejuryofexecutiveopinionmethod.
TheDelphi Methodhasthefollowingsteps:
STEP1VariousExpertsareaskedtoanswer,independentlyand
inwriting,aseriesofquestionsaboutthefutureofsalesor
whateverotherareaisbeingforecasted.
STEP2Asummaryofalltheanswersisthenprepared.Noexpert
knows,howanyotherexpertansweredthequestions.
STEP3Copiesofsummaryaregiventotheindividualexperts
withtherequestthattheymodifytheiroriginalanswersifthey
thinkitnecessary.
15
STEP4Anothersummaryismadeofthese
modifications,andcopiesagainaredistributed
totheexperts.Thistime,however,expert
opinionsthatdeviatesignificantlyfromthe
normmustbejustifiedinwriting.
STEP5Athirdsummaryismadeoftheopinions
andjustifications,andcopiesareonceagain
distributedtotheexperts.Justificationinwriting
forallanswersisnowrequired.
STEP6Theforecastisgeneratedfromallofthe
opinionsandjustificationsthatarisefromstep5.
16
Objective Methods
1. CasualMethods:
Someforecastingmethodsusetheassumption
thatitispossibletoidentifytheunderlying
factorsthatmightinfluencethevariablethatis
beingforecast.(CauseandEffect)
Forexample,includinginformationabout
climatepatternsmightimprovetheabilityofa
modeltopredictumbrellasales.
Thisisamodelofseasonalitywhichshowsa
regularpatternofupanddownfluctuations.
17
2. Time SERIES ANALYSIS METHOD:
Thetimeseriesanalysismethodpredictsthe
futuresalesbyanalyzingthehistorical
relationshipbetweensalesandtime.
Althoughtheactualnumberofyearsincludedin
atimeseriesanalysiswillvaryfromcompanyto
company,asageneralrule,managersshould
includeasmanyyearsaspossibletoensurethat
importantsalestrendsdonotgetundetected.
18
Thethreemostcommonhistoricaldatausedare:
Seasonality:Aseasonalpattern(eg.,quarteroftheyear,
monthoftheyear,weekofthemonth,dayoftheweek)
existswhenthedemandisinfluencedbyseasonalfactors.
Trend:Duringthegrowthanddeclinestagesofthe
product-lifecycle,aconsistenttrendpatternintermsof
demandgrowthordemanddeclinecanbeobserved.
Level:Itisdifficulttocaptureshorttermpatternsthatare
notrepetitiveinnature.Inshortrun,sometimesthereisa
swing,whichcouldbeineitherdirection,upwardor
downward,andisusuallyhasmomentumthatlastsfora
fewperiods.
19
Importance of sale forecasting
1.Overstockingandunderstockingofmaterialscanbemaintained
byagoodinventorycontrol.
2.Withthehelpofsalesforecasting,salesopportunitiescanbe
foundoutonthebasisoftheforecast.
3.Alltheactivitiesinanorganizationarecontrolledonthebasisof
forecasting.
4.Advertisingandsalespromotionexpensesarebasedonsales
forecasting.
5.Salesforecastingisalsoimportantinthefieldofpersonnel
department.6.SalesforecastingisthebasisforfinancialPlanning.
7.Inthefieldofproduction,withthehelpofsalesforecastingthe
producerisabletoadjusthisproductionschedulesandavoididle
timewhichleadstoefficiency.
8.Supplyanddemandoftheproductscanbeeasilyadjusted.
9.Ithelpsinknowingwhenandhowmuchtobuy.
10.Ithelpsinproductmixdecisions.
20