Counting Techniques and

Simple Probabilities
 A set is a well-defined group of
objects or elements. Counting,
means determining all the possible
ways the elements of a set can be
arranged. One way to do this is to
list all the possible arrangements
and then count how many we have.
 Example: List and count the ways
the elements in the set A,B,C can
be arranged.
ABC, ACB
BAC, BCA
CAB, CBA
There are 6 ways A,B, and C can be
arranged
If there are more than 3 elements in
the set, the procedure by listing
becomes more challenging.
 Count the ways W, X, Y, Z can be
arranged.
WXYZ, WXZY, WYZX, WYXZ, WZXY, WZYX
XWYZ, XWZY, XYWZ, XYZW, XZWY, XZYW
YWXZ, YWZX, YXWZ, YXZW,YZXW, YZWX
ZWXY, ZWYX, ZXWY, ZXYW, ZYWX, ZYXW
24 ways
 To determine the number of ways
for arranging a specific number of
items without repetition:
Determine the number of slots to be filled.
Determine the number of choices for each
slot.
Multiply the numbers from step 2.
 Count the ways W, X, Y, Z can be
arranged.
Step 1: There are 4 4
_____, 3
_____, 2
_____, 1
_____
slots.
Step 2: 4 choices for
slot 1, 3 choices for
slot 2, 2 choices for
slot 3 and 1 choice for
slot 1.
Step 3: 4x3x2x1 = 24
 How many ways are possible for
arranging containers of cotton balls,
gauze pads, swabs, tongue
depressors, and adhesive tape in a
row on a shelf in a doctors office?

_____,
5 _____,
4 _____,
3 _____,
2 _____
1

5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120 ways
 Probability is a number that
describes the chance of an event
occurring if an activity is repeated
over and over. A probability of zero
means the event cannot occur
while a probability of one means
the event must occur. Otherwise
the probability can be expressed as
a fraction, decimal or percent.
 The Vocabulary of Probability
An experiment or event is the act of doing something to create a
result.
The possible outcomes of an experiment are all of the different
results that can occur, although usually only one outcome occurs for
each experiment.
A success is the outcome were most interested in occurring.

The probability of an event is a ratio, abbreviated as P(event), and

is calculated
The number of successes in the event
P(event) =
The total number of possible outcomes
A random selection is the act of choosing something so that each
possible outcome has an equal chance of being selected and is
equally likely to be selected.
 What is an event?
An event is an experiment or collection of
experiments.
Examples: The following are examples of
events.
1) A coin toss.(2) Rolling a die.
(3) Rolling 5 dice.
4) Drawing a card from a deck of cards.
5) Drawing 3 cards from a deck.
6) Drawing a marble from a bag of different
colored marbles.
7) Spinning a spinner in a board game.
The following are possible outcomes
of events.
1) A coin toss has two possible outcomes. The outcomes
(sample space) are "heads" and "tails".
2) Rolling a regular six-sided die has six possible
outcomes. You may get a side with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
dots.
3) Drawing a card from a regular deck of 52 playing
cards has 52 possible outcomes. Each of the 52 playing
cards is different, so there are 52 possible outcomes for
drawing a card.
 The Vocabulary of Probability
Example:
The following spinner is divided equally into 4 pieces. There are 4
possible outcomes the spinner can land on 1, 2, 3, or 4. What is
the probability the spinner will land on 2?
Procedure: 1 2
1. Identify the experiment or event.
2. Identify the total number of possible outcomes. 4 3

3. Identify the number of successes described in the event.

The experiment is spinning the spinner; there is a total of 4
possible outcomes; this event has only one success (landing on a
2). 1
P(land on 2) =
4
 Bar Graphs and Probability
Example:
The following bar graph represents the 50 final grades in Mr.
Millers Statistics class last semester. Number of Grades
25
If one student is randomly 20

Number of Grades
selected, find the probability 15
that the student received a final
10
grade of an A on the final.
5 6
Procedure: 10 23 8 3
0
Use the bar graph to find the A B C D F

probability a student received an A. Grades

6 3
P(A) = =
50 25
 Suppose there are 10 balls in a bucket
numbered as follows: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6,
and 6. A single ball is randomly chosen from
the bucket. What is the probability of
drawing a ball numbered 1?
There are 2 ways to draw a 1, since there
are two balls numbered 1. The total possible
number of outcomes is 10, since there are
10 balls.
The probability of drawing a 1 is the ratio
2/10 = 1/5.
 Suppose there are 10 balls in a bucket
numbered as follows: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6,
and 6. A single ball is randomly chosen from
the bucket. What is the probability of drawing
a ball with a number greater than 4?
There are 3 ways this may happen, since 3 of
the balls are numbered greater than 4. The
total possible number of outcomes is 10, since
there are 10 balls. The probability of drawing a
number greater than 4 is the ratio 3/10. Since
this ratio is larger than the one in the previous
example, we say that this event has a greater
chance of occurring than drawing a 1.
 Suppose there are 10 balls in a bucket
numbered as follows: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6,
and 6. A single ball is randomly chosen from
the bucket. What is the probability of
drawing a ball with a number greater than
6? Since none of the balls are numbered
greater than 6, this can occur in 0 ways. The
total possible number of outcomes is 10,
since there are 10 balls. The probability of
drawing a number greater than 6 is the ratio
0/10 = 0.
 Suppose there are 10 balls in a bucket
numbered as follows: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6,
and 6. A single ball is randomly chosen from
the bucket. What is the probability of drawing a
ball with a number less than 7?
Since all of the balls are numbered less than 7,
this can occur in 10 ways. The total possible
number of outcomes is 10, since there are 10
balls. The probability of drawing a number less
than 7 is the ratio 10/10 = 1.
Note in the last two examples that a probability
of 0 meant that the event would not occur, and
a probability of 1 meant the event definitely
 Suppose a card is drawn at random
from a regular deck of 52 cards.
What is the probability that the card
is an ace?
There are 4 different ways that the
card can be an ace, since 4 of the 52
cards are aces. There are 52
different total outcomes, one for
each card in the deck. The
probability of drawing an ace is the
ratio 4/52 = 1/13.
Suppose a card is drawn at random
from a regular deck of 52 cards.
What is the probability that the card
is a face card?
Suppose a card is drawn at random
from a regular deck of 52 cards.
What is the probability that the card
is a one-eyed jack?
Suppose a card is drawn at random
from a regular deck of 52 cards.
What is the probability that the card
is red?
 Suppose a regular die is rolled.
What is the probability of getting a
3 or a 6?
There are a total of 6 possible
outcomes. Rolling a 3 or a 6 are
two of them, so the probability is
the ratio of 2/6 = 1/3.
A class has 13 male and 15 female
students. If a student is randomly
selected, what is the probability the
student is a male?
 Imagine tossing two coins and
observing whether 0, 1, or 2 heads
are obtained.
A sample space is the set of all
possible outcomes of a random
process or experiment.
An event is a subset of a sample
space.
Random means that when it takes
place, one outcome from some set
of outcomes is sure to occur, but it
is impossible to predict with
certainty which outcome that will
be.
For any finite set A, N(A) denotes the
number of elements in A.

P(E) = N(E)/S(E)
Probabilities for a Deck of Cards
An ordinary deck of cards contains 52 cards
divided into four suits. The red suits are
diamonds and hearts and the black suits are
clubs () and pades (). Each suit contains 13
cards of the following denominations: 2, 3, 4, 5,
6,7, 8, 9, 10, J (jack), Q (queen), K (king), and
A (ace). The cards J, Q, and K are called face
cards.
a. What is the sample space of outcomes?
b. What is the event that the chosen card is a
black face card?
c. What is the probability that the chosen card
is a black face card?
Rolling a Pair of Dice
A die is one of a pair of dice. It is a cube with
six sides, each containing from one to six
dots, called pips. Suppose a blue die and a
gray die are rolled together, and the
numbers of dots that occur face up on each
are recorded. The possible outcomes can
be listed as follows, where in each case the
die on the left is blue and the one on the
right is gray.
 a. Use the compact notation to
write the sample space S of
possible outcomes.
b. Use set notation to write the
event E that the numbers showing
face up have a sum of
6 and find the probability of this
event.
The Monty Hall Problem
There are three doors on the set for a game show.
Lets call them A, B, and C. If you pick the right
door you win the prize. You pick door A. The host
of the show, Monty Hall, then opens one of the
other doors and reveals that there is no prize
behind it. Keeping the remaining two doors closed,
he asks you whether you want to switch your
choice to the other closed door or stay with your
original choice of door A. What should you do if
you want to maximize your chance of winning the
prize: stay with door A or switchor would the
likelihood of winning be the same either way?
Counting the Elements of a List
Example: how many integers are
there from 5 through 12?

Theorem 9.1.1 The Number of

Elements in a List
If m and n are integers and m n,
then there are n m + 1 integers
from m to n inclusive.
 a. How many three-digit integers
(integers from 100 to 999 inclusive)
are divisible by 5?
b. What is the probability that a
randomly chosen three-digit integer
is divisible by 5?
 Exercise:
1. Toss two coins 30 times and
make a table showing the relative
frequencies of 0, 1, and 2 heads.
How do your values compare with
those shown in Table?
2. Write each event as a set, and
compute its probability.
The event that the chosen card is
red and is not a face card.
 3. Write each of the following events as a
set and compute its probability.
a. The event that the sum of the numbers
showing face up is 8.
b. The event that the numbers showing face
up are the same.
c. The event that the sum of the numbers
showing face up is
at least 9.