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Global Model: Q2
Retailer maximizes SC Manufacturer Retailer
profit
Q2> Q1
Manufacturer
Sells quantity ordered by retailer
No beginning inventory
Variable and fixed costs
Cannot influence quantity ordered by retailer
Notation
Description Value
D Consumer Demand T.B.D.
Q Retailer Order Quantity T.B.D.
S Retail Price to Consumers 125
C Mfg Price to Retailer 80
P Mfg Variable Cost of Production 35
F Mfg Fixed Cost 100,000
V Salvage Value for Excess Stock 20
QE Excess Inventory T.B.D.
B Buyback Price for Excess Stock T.B.D.
Basic Sequential Model
Q8,000 units in increments of 2,000 units.
Demand has a probability distribution .
Retailer wants to order the amount that will maximize its expected
profit.
Expected profit for each quantity level in sequence is calculated until
profit begins to decline. the quantity at which expected profit is
maximum, is the optimal order quantity
D Probability
8000 .11
10000 .11
12000 .28
14000 .22
16000 .18
18000 .10
Retailers Profit
Manufacturer
sells quantity (Q) to retailer at a wholesale price of $ 80
per unit (C)
Fixed costs (F) of $ 100,000
Variable production cost (P) of $ 35 per unit
P=$35
V=$20
F= $100000
QE = max(Q-D, 0) D Probability
8000 .11
10000 .11
Manufacturers Profit 12000 .28
=Q(C P) F 14000 .22
Retailers Profit 16000 .18
=QS*S Q*C + QE*V
18000 .10
QS=min(Q , D)
Long Form Process
In class assignment:
Submit the completed table as a single slide Power Point file to the in-class
assignment drop box. File name: your ID#-assignment1
Long Form Process contd
Profit
500000
400000
300000
200000 Profit
100000
0
8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
But we also know that if the retailer overestimates demand then he will
incur a cost (CO) of $ 80 - $20 = $ 60 per unit
(cost less salvage value)
Set the quantity (Q) such that the probability of demand satisfies:
= 45/(60+45) = .429
Cumulative Probabilities
The objective is to find a cumulative probability that is equal to or greater than the
critical ratio of .429
In this case, we select the order quantity of 12,000 units at the cumulative
probability distribution of .50
S=$125
D=?
Manufacturer Retailer
V=$20
QE = max(Q-D, 0)
Global Optimization contd
When we maintain the same price schedule and retailer expected profits on an order
quantity of 16,000, we see their net expected profits fall from 470,700 to 394,500 for a
difference 76,200
Manufacturers on the other hand saw their profits increase from 440,000 to 620,000 for a
difference of 180,000 when they moved from an order quantity of 12,000 to 16,000
Retailers will not increase their order size simply to satisfy the needs of the manufacturer if
in doing so they reduce their own net profits
There may be a way to extract more profit out the market in such a manner that both the
retailer and the manufacturer could simultaneously benefit
Buyback Contracts
B=$55
V=$20
QE = max(Q-D, 0)
Manufacturers Profit
=Q(C P) F - QE*(B-V)
Retailers Profit
= QS *S + QE*B Q*C
Buyback Contracts contd
(Retailers Expected Profit)
Order Quantity = 14,000, S=$125, B=$55, C=$80
Quantity Probability QS= QE= Total Revenue Expected Revenue
Demanded Min(Q,D) Max(Q-D,0) QS*S + QE*B
In this case the retailer pays a price of $ 60 (rather than $ 80) but agrees
to give the manufacturer 15% of retail sales revenues
Revenue Sharing Contracts contd
15% * Qs*S
V=$20
QE = max(Q-D, 0)
Qs=min(D, Q)
Manufacturers Profit
=Q(C P) F+ 15% Qs*S
Retailers Profit
=85% Qs*S+ QE*V Q*C
Revenue Sharing Contracts contd
(Retailers Expected Profit)
Order Quantity = ?
Quantity Probability QS= QE= Total Revenue Expected
Demanded Min(Q, D) Max (Q D, 0) .85*Qs *S + QE*V Revenue
8000 .11
10000 .11
12000 .28
14000 .22
16000 .18
18000 .1
Order Quantity = ?
Quantity Probability QS= QE= RM = .15*Qs*S Expected RM
Demanded Min(Q, D) Max (Q D, 0)
8000 .11
10000 .11
12000 .28
14000 .22
16000 .18
18000 .1
Total Expected RM ?
Total Expected=Q*(C P) +Total Expected RM F=?
Win-Win Contract Process