The South China Sea, and

perhaps the entire Indo Pacific

region, at the crossroads.
A PRESENTATION FOR THE

by: ROILO GOLEZ

21 September 2016
Three storey Chinese fort on Mischief Reef photographed from a Philippine Air Force
plane on March 20, 1999.
Ministry of Defense Report of Japan dated December 22, 2015
REPORTED PLANNED CONSTRUCTION
AT MISCHIEF REEF
LATEST STATUS
OF CHINA
CONTROLLED
ISLANDS &
ARTIFICIAL
ISLANDS
CHINA GRABBED
SCARBOROUGH
SHOAL IN
APRIL 2012
 On 22 January 2013, the
Republic of the Philippines
instituted arbitral
proceedings against the
Peoples Republic of China
under Annex VII to the
UNCLOS
PERMANENT COURT OF ARBITRATION
 On 12 July 2016, the
Republic of the Philippines
was awarded a favorable
decision by the Permanent
Court of Arbitration
GOLEZ: The ruling of the Arbitral Tribunal has indeed
changed the rules of the game in the South China Sea.
Except that China insists on one medieval rule: Might is
right. I quote from the article:

The arbitrals decision is reconfiguring the game nations

play in the South China Sea in three main ways. First, it
brings a great deal of clarity to the game and legally
clears most of the South China Sea from dispute. At its
core, the verdict includes several key judgments that
help accomplish this. Perhaps most consequentially, it
says that Chinas nine-dash line has no legal basis and
no country can lawfully claim historic rights in the sea.
GOLEZ: (continued..)

Beyond this, it also ruled that none of the features in the

Spratly Islands can generate a continental shelf and an
exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which may extend to 200
nautical miles (nm) from shore. Lastly, it decided that
five features in the Spratlys, including Mischief Reef and
Second Thomas Shoal, are low-tide elevations,
reaffirming an earlier court ruling that low-tide features
cannot be appropriated, by occupation or otherwise, and
should belong to the continental shelf of its
surroundings.

GOLEZ: (continued..)

With these key judgments, a vast swath of the South

China Sea is legally no longer disputed. The ruling has in
fact reduced the disputed area from more than 80
percent of the South China Sea to less than 20 percent of
it. What remains under dispute is now only pockets of
12-nm radius circles from the disputed features, plus the
overlapping areas of the EEZs from the mainland of the
coastal states.
#
 ARTICLE XII
National Economy and Patrimony

SECTION 2. All lands of the public domain, waters, minerals, coal, petroleum, and
other mineral oils, all forces of potential energy, fisheries, forests or timber, wildlife,
flora and fauna, and other natural resources are owned by the State. With the
exception of agricultural lands, all other natural resources shall not be alienated.
The exploration, development, and utilization of natural resources shall be under
the full control and supervision of the State. The State may directly undertake such
activities, or it may enter into co-production, joint venture, or production-sharing
agreements with Filipino citizens, or corporations or associations at least sixty per
centum of whose capital is owned by such citizens. Such agreements may be for a
period not exceeding twenty-five years, renewable for not more than twenty-five
years, and under such terms and conditions as may be provided by law. In cases of
water rights for irrigation, water supply, fisheries, or industrial uses other than the
development of water power, beneficial use may be the measure and limit of the
grant.
The State shall protect the nations marine wealth in its archipelagic
waters, territorial sea, and exclusive economic zone, and reserve its use and
enjoyment exclusively to Filipino citizens.
 CHINA WONT
ACCEPT HAGUE
SOVEREIGNTY
ARBITRATION
MANILA, Philippines Beijing
on Friday refused to honor the
United Nations (UN) arbitral
tribunal's awarding on the
jurisdiction and admissibility of
the case on the disputed South
China Sea.
The tribunal under the United
Nations Convention on the Law
of the Sea earlier issued its
Award on Jurisdiction and
Admissibility, agreeing with the
Philippines's arguments that it
can take the case.
 We will not participate
and we will not accept
the arbitration... The
ruling or the result of
arbitration and will not
affect China's position,
Vice Foreign Minister
Liu Zhenmin said.
 CHINA
BOMBER
BUZZES
SCARBOROUG
H SHOAL
GOLEZ: China is obviously upping the ante in the South
China when it sent a strategic bomber, an H-K6, to buzz the
Scarborough Shoal area, penetrating the air space over our
Exclusive Economic Zone. It is an excessive, overreaction to
the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration and is a
bully tactic aimed at intimidating the Philippines and other
players in the region. The article states: "The effect of the
release on the Weibo social media account belonging to
the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) should be
interpreted as an attempt to signal to the Philippines and
the U.S. that China is serious about its South China Sea
claim, as delineated by the 9-dash line. The claim includes
Scarborough Shoal, far to the north of most of the
occupied islands of the Spratlys and Paracels."
 VARIOUS
COUNTRIES URGE
CHINA TO RESPECT
RULING OF THE
ARBITRAL
TRIBUNAL
PHILIPPINES

Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. called

for "restraint and sobriety" immediately after
the international arbitration court's ruling.

He said the Philippines welcomes the ruling but

said the 501-page award. Meanwhile,
Communications Secretary Martin Andanar said
that Solicitor General Jose Calida would provide
President Rodrigo Duterte with a synopsis of the
ruling on Wednesday morning.
VIETNAM

Vietnam as one of the South China Sea claimant

countries has been watching the Philippines's case
against China with interest. Soon after the ruling was
released, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs Le Hai Binh said Vietnam strongly supports the
settlement of disputes by peaceful means.

It also reaffirmed its sovereignty over Paracel Islands

(also claimed by China) and Spratly Islands (also
claimed by China, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia and the
Philippines), which it said is established in accordance
with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of
the Sea.
UNITED STATES

The United States said it is still studying the

tribunal's decision in the Philippines-China
arbitration and made no comments yet on the merits
of the case.
However, it reiterated its support for efforts to
resolve the dispute through peaceful means,
including through arbitration.
Washington expressed hope that China and the
Philippines would comply with the decision and
urged all claimants to avoid provocative statements
or actions.
UNITED STATES

"We encourage claimants to clarify their maritime

claims in accordance with international law as
reflected in the Law of the Sea Convention and
to work together to manage and resolve their
disputes," a statement from John Kirby, assistant
secretary and department spokesperson of the
Bureau of Public Affairs said.
AUSTRALIA

Minister for Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop, similarly,

called on the Philippines and China to abide by the
ruling, which is final and binding on both parties,
and to refrain from coercive behavior.

Bishop clarified the nature of the tribunal's decision

which ruled on maritime rights under the United
Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
(UNCLOS) and not sovereignty.

She said the decision is an "important test case for

how the region can manage disputes peacefully."
AUSTRALIA

"Australia supports the right of all countries to seek

to resolve disputes peacefully in accordance with
international law, including UNCLOS," she said,
adding that adherence to international law is the
foundation for peace, stability and prosperity in East
Asia.
NEW ZEALAND

Foreign Minister Murray McCully called on parties to

respect the ruling on maritime rights in the South
China Sea.

He said maintaining peace and stability in the South

China Sea is vital to the ongoing prosperity of the
wider Asia-Pacific region.

We hope that the Tribunals ruling can provide a

platform for resolving the longstanding and complex
issues in the South China Sea and we urge all
parties to work towards this end, McCully said.
JAPAN

Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida reiterated

Tokyo's consistent advocacy to the "importance
of the rule of law and the use of peaceful means,
not the use of force or coercion, in seeking
settlement of maritime disputes."

Kishida also called on the parties to comply with

the award.
INDIA
India's Ministry of External Affairs said that as a
state party to the UNCLOS, it urges all signatory
countries to respect the international treaty which is
also referred to as the "constitution of the sea."
It said states should resolve disputes peacefully and
"exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities
that could complicate or escalate disputes affecting
peace and stability."
"Sea lanes of communication passing through the
South China Sea are critical for peace, stability,
prosperity and development," the ministry said in a
statement.
 CHINA CANNOT
IGNORE ARBITRAL
TRIBUNAL RULING
DUE TO
INTERNATIONAL
PRESSURE
The United States noted
that the final decision by
the international tribunal in
The Hague not expected
until next year would be
legally binding on both the
Philippines and China,
which have both ratified
the UN Convention on the
Law of the Sea.
South Korea's defense minister called for freedom of the
seas and the skies in the South China Sea, in the
strongest public remarks by a South Korean official over a
recent spat between the US and China over the contested
waters.

The remarks by South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-

koo, made at a press briefing with visiting US Defense
Secretary Ash Carter, came at the end of a flurry of
meetings in Seoul involving leaders of Japan, China and
South Korea.
IN SYMBOLIC GESTURE, US DEFENSE CHIEF
VISITING AIRCRAFT CARRIER IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

US Secretary of Defense visiting US aircraft carrier Theodore

Roosevelt while carrier sailing in the South China Sea.
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia In a symbolic swipe at China's
muscular moves in the South China Sea, U.S. Defense
Secretary Ash Carter was flying Thursday onto an American
aircraft carrier in the disputed waterway.
 PHILIPPINES
SENDS FVR TO
TALK WITH
COUNTERPARTS
IN CHINA
FROM THE ARTICLE: President Rodrigo Duterte on
Thursday said the interests of the Philippines allies
would be taken into consideration as the government
eyed bilateral talks with China after winning the
arbitration case.
We do not also want to offend the United States.
Why? Because we have identified ourselves allied
with the Western powers, Duterte said in a speech
on Thursday night.
So theres an interest which we should not forget:
Our interest and the interest of our allies, he added.
GOLEZ: I welcome this statement of
President Duterte:

"We value the award given by the

(tribunal), and the Philippines will not
concede any of the awards given to us.
 CHINAS
OPTIONS ON
POST
TRIBUNAL
RULING
China is set to declare an
air defence identification
zone (ADIZ) over the
disputed South China Sea
to counter US military's
provocative moves in the "If the US military keeps making provocative
moves to challenge China's sovereignty in
strategic waterways,
the region, it will give Beijing a good
according to a Hong Kong-
opportunity to declare an ADIZ in the South
based media, South China China Sea," the report quoted sources in the
Morning Post report. People's Liberation Army (PLA) as saying.
GOLEZ: If China declares a South China
Sea Air Defense Identification Zone
(ADIZ), which for sure will overlap the
Philippine exclusive economic zone,
how will the US and other powers
respond? How should the Philippines
respond? I hope China does not do this
as it would extremely complicate the
situation in the South China Sea and
our West Philippine Sea.
GOLEZ: Two possible scenarios after Arbitral Tribunal
ruling, per this study:

"Let's look at two scenarios. In one, China does

nothing more in response to the court's judgment
than issue a strongly worded rejection. It does not
back off from anything it has been doing, but takes
no immediate, overt additional steps to expand its
presence or strengthen its position in the contested
areas. In this case, without any provocative Chinese
actions to respond to, it is hard to see what America
could do with all the military force it has assembled.
GOLEZ: (continued..)

"In the other scenario, China decides it has to make a

more forceful response to an adverse judgment in The
Hague. For example, it might announce the imposition of
an Air Defence Identification Zone over the South China
Sea, the way it did in the East China Sea in 2013.

"Or it might start to build an artificial island and create a

new base on Scarborough Shoals, as it has done on other
features in recent years. China seized Scarborough
Shoals, which lie quite close to Manila, from the
Philippines in 2012.
GOLEZ: (continued..)

"The United States has plainly warned China against

taking either of these steps, and its big military
deployments are obviously designed to back these
warnings up. They appear to send the message that
America would be willing to meet with armed force any
move by China to further extend its hold in the South
China Sea.
#
STATEMENT OF
U.S.
GOLEZ: High tension in the South China Sea as the US
Navy and PLA Navy face off. I quote from the article what
transpired in the meeting in Beijing between the US
Navy Chief and the PLA Navy:

Meeting Yuan Yubai, commander of the Chinese North

Sea Fleet, (US Navy Chief) Richardson "underscored the
importance of lawful and safe operations in the South
China and elsewhere professional navies operate", the
U.S. Navy said.

U.S. forces would keep sailing, flying and operating

wherever international law allows, Richardson added.
GOLEZ: Here come more of the US Navy and other
navies. I quote from the article:

At the time of the highly anticipated ruling, the U.S. had

a heavy presence in the South China Sea, which included
the carrier Ronald Reagan, the cruisers Shiloh and
Chancellorsville, and the destroyers Benfold, Curtis
Wilbur and Stethem.

U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Ash Carter

and U.S. Pacific Command head Adm. Harry Harris, have
regularly stated that the U.S. would fly, sail or operate
wherever international law allows.
 IS WAR IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA
PROBABLE?
Jul 20 at 7:14 AM
COMBINED CARRIERS OPERATIONS,
TWO (2) U.S. CARRIERS
GOLEZ: A clear statement from the US Navy:
WASHINGTON (CNN) -
The Obama administration made it "absolutely clear" to
China that the US will continue freedom of navigation
operations in the South China Sea, Chief of Naval
Operations Adm. Mark Richardson said Tuesday.
Richardson, who just returned from a visit to China, said
that he also made clear to his Chinese counterpart that
any attempt by China to declare an air identification
zone, or ADIZ, over the South China Sea, or efforts to
build artificial islands in the Scarborough Shoal in
disputed waters closer to the Philippines, were "clearly
identified as concerns" for the US.
MALABAR
EXERCISE
GOLEZ: The US, Japan and India delivers a strong message
with the Malabar naval exercise:
"The "real action" for the "sea phase" of the Malabar exercise
will then shift towards the Okinawa Island in the western
Pacific from June 14 to 17. Interestingly, the exercise setting
will be close to the group of uninhabited isles in East China
Sea called Senkaku by Japan, which controls them, but are
aggressively claimed by China as its Diaoyu islands.
"The implicit message for China will be clear: it should
peacefully resolve its territorial disputes in East China Sea
with Japan as well South China Sea with countries like
Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia without the
belligerence and strong-arm tactics it is currently indulging in.
GOLEZ: (continued..)

"The Malabar indeed will be a show of strength, with the

combat manoeuvres ranging from anti-submarine
warfare to maritime interdiction operations. India has
deployed two of its new multi-role stealth frigates, INS
Sahyadri and INS Satpura, which are packed with
weapons and sensors, missile corvette Kirch and fleet
tanker INS Shakti.
GOLEZ: India should aim to be a power in the South
China Sea, following its Look East policy, in order to
counterbalance the over aggressive China which has
excessive claims over the South China Sea to the
detriment of other coastal states like the Philippines. I
quote from the article:
"Taking note of this evolving geostrategic landscape,
India has been engaging more closely through joint
strategic and military cooperation with pivotal powers
such as Japan, the United States, Australia, South Korea,
Seychelles, Vietnam, Myanmar, and the Philippines.
Several of these engagements go beyond the norm of
bilateral equations, featuring trilateral or even
quadrilateral relationships."
NAVAL EXERCISE
OF CHINA
Chinese warships, fighter jets and submarines held live-fire war games in
the South China Sea, state media reported, just days ahead of an
international tribunal's ruling on a challenge to Beijing's expansive claims
in the waters.
The high-profile display of naval hardware is China's latest salvo in a
propaganda offensive aimed at demonstrating its military might and
asserting its sovereignty over the disputed region.
 Chinese warships,
fighter jets and
submarines displayed
might in the South China
Sea
China boosting
propaganda exercises in
the region ahead of
tribunal's verdict
The hearing over South
China Sea between
China and Philippines in
The Hague will be held
on July 12
From the article:

A military confrontation could ensue between the United States

and China if the latter starts reclamation activities in the
disputed Scarborough Shoal off the coast of the Philippines, a
retired US Admiral said on Thursday.

Retired US Navy Admiral Dennis Blair warned China that it would

be at the losing end should a clash take place between Beijing
and the United States and its allies in the Philippines over
ownership of the disputed shoal.
Continued.. :
If the Chinese push there, I think theres going to be trouble,
said Blair, the former head of the Pacific Command who once
oversaw US forces in the South China Sea region.
Maritime clash
Blair said China would have no chance of winning in the event of
a maritime clash considering the setup of the US and Philippine
military forces in the disputed waters.
And its the kind of trouble that the United States and the
Philippines are going to win because the military situation is set
up that way, he emphasized.
GOLEZ: As a student of military history and conflicts, I fully agree that the tension in
the South China, in fact the entire Indo Pacific area, is rising, with strong statements
matched by a convergence of powerful military assets and operations in the area:
(1) The artificial islands of China expected to be militarized soon;
(2) The freedom of navigation operations of the US Navy;
(3) The entry of India announcing its operational deployment of naval assets in the
Pacific;
(4) Japans intention to conduct patrols in the South China Sea (no one knows if
their advanced submarines are already there);
(5) The recently concluded combined operations exercise of two US carriers in the
Philippine Sea, announced as a deterrence by the US Chief of Naval Operations, the
highest ranking US Navy Officer, and with the participation of B-52 bombers and
electronic attack planes (the Growlers);
(6) And very strong statements from Admiral Harris, the Commander of the US
Pacific Command, to the consternation of China.
FROM THE ARTICLE:

Chinas Maritime Safety Administration

announced that Chinese naval and air forces will
carry out seven days of exercises in an area
extending from Hainan to the Paracel Islands off
the Vietnamese coast. The exercises will end on
Tuesday, one day before the tribunals ruling is
released, so they will still be around if things get
more exciting after that.

FROM THE ARTICLE: (continued..)

They might well get more exciting, because the U.S.

navys Task Force 70, including the aircraft carrier USS
Ronald Reagan, has now moved into the South China Sea.
Its task, according to its commander, Rear-Admiral John
D. Alexander, is "to maintain the seas open for all to use."
The Chinese Defence Ministrys spokesman, Col. Wu
Qian, warned last Thursday that this is "an act of
militarization in the South China Sea and it endangers
regional peace and stability. But Id like to say that the
U.S. side is making the wrong calculation. The Chinese
armed forces never give in to outside forces.

FROM THE ARTICLE: (continued..)

And on Friday, President Xi Jinping declared that China

will never compromise on sovereignty and is "not afraid
of trouble.

In a worst-case analysis, therefore, we could be only a

week away from a major military clash between the
United States and China in the South China Sea. But it
really shouldnt go that far, because the Hague tribunals
ruling will have no practical effect.

#
 SOUTH
CHINA SEA:
A VIRTUAL
POWDER
KEG
SITUATION
HEATING UP
IN EAST
CHINA SEA
GOLEZ: The East China Sea (Senkakus area) is another
power keg in the making because of Chinas
aggressiveness. I quote from the article:
Chinese activity is escalating at sea and in the air,
Japans top military commander, Admiral Katsutoshi
Kawano, warned last month. From April to June, Japan
scrambled fighter jets against Chinese planes
approaching its airspace a record 199 times, double last
years pace. These encounters increasingly occur around
Japans small and uninhabited Senkaku Islands, which
China calls the Diaoyu and claims for itself.
"On June 17 a pair of Japanese F-15s nearly got into a
dogfight with two approaching Chinese Su-30 fighters.
GOLEZ: The situation is heating near the Japan-
China border, East China Sea.

Air Self-Defense Force fighter jets scrambled a record

199 times against Chinese aircraft approaching
Japanese airspace in the April-June period, the
Defense Ministrys Joint Staff said.
The previous record of 198 was set over the
preceding three months, and shows, according to
Japanese authorities, Chinese military activity,
including naval operations, is intensifying in areas
near the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.
RECORD OF JSDF SCRAMBLES AGAINST CHINA
RECORD OF JSDF SCRAMBLES AGAINST CHINA
GOLEZ: the tension level in the East China Sea is much hotter
than in the South China Sea. The two powers confronting
each other are almost evenly matched in air and sea power.

Is War the Goal?

When the goal is war, warmongers always seem to find a way.

If war is the goal, another incident with China over the
disputed Senkaku Islands could rally support.

Near Dogfight

I recently noted Japan Locked Military Radar on Chinese

Fighters in Dispute Over Senkaku Islands in what was billed as
a near dogfight.
GOLEZ: (continued..)

Should a dogfight occur, all it would take to stir up war

sentiment is a claim by Japan that China fired first (regardless
of who fired first).
Could the US be Drawn In?
On April 28, 2015 Breitbart reported US Reaffirms Defense of
Japans Senkaku Islands.
A day before Japans prime minister Shinzo Abe visits
president Barack Obama in the White House, Secretary of
State John Kerry reaffirmed that a treaty that the United
States and Japan signed in 1960 requires the United States to
defend the Senkaku Islands from an attack by China.
GOLEZ: (continued..)

According to Kerry, Commitment to Japans security

remains ironclad and covers all territories under Japans
administration, including the Senkaku islands.

#
GOLEZ: Japan is rearming at an accelerated pace. Japan
is reportedly ordering $40 Billion worth of fighter planes.
Now, Japan is ordering more missiles and helicopters:

Japan will continue buying weapons from the U.S. as

tensions with China over the South China Sea reach a
boiling point.

The U.S. approved Japans request to buy hundreds of

anti-aircraft missiles Tuesday, a sale that could be worth
as much as $821 million. The U.S. Navy announced
earlier this week that four more Bell V-22 Osprey
helicopters will be delivered to Japan in the next four
years.
 INDIA
ANNOUNCING
THEY WILL
DEPLOY FORCES
IN PACIFIC AREA
GOLEZ: India is entering the South China Sea, via Vietnam. in a
big way. I have long supported the idea of India becoming a
counterpoint to China's aggressive rise. India is a also a victim
and continuing target of China's territorial aggressiveness. I
quote from this article:

"In a move of great symbolic significance, Indias Prime Minister

Narendra Modi will make a stop in Vietnam on Saturday on his
way to the G-20 summit in Hangzhou, China. This will be the first
visit to Vietnam by an Indian leader in 15 years, ostensibly to
celebrate the 10th anniversary of the two nations strategic
partnership. But at this tense moment in China-India relations,
Mr. Modis visit will also remind Beijing that New Delhi is no
longer hesitant to expand its presence in Chinas periphery.

GOLEZ: (continued..)
"India under the Modi government has made no secret of its
desire to play a more assertive role in the larger Indo-Pacific. As
Mr. Modi himself underlined to the joint session of the U.S.
Congress in June, A strong India-U.S. partnership can anchor
peace, prosperity and stability from Asia to Africa and from
Indian Ocean to the Pacific. It can also help ensure security of
the sea lanes of commerce and freedom of navigation on seas.
"A more ambitious outreach to Vietnam therefore shouldnt be
surprising. A large part of New Delhis abiding interest in the
region concerns defense. It wants to build relations with
countries such as Vietnam, which can act as a pressure point
against China. This comes at a time when the U.S. has also lifted
its longstanding ban on the sale of lethal military equipment to
Vietnam. With this in mind, New Delhi has been helping Hanoi
bolster its naval and air capabilities."
STATEMENT OF PRRD
ON SOUTH CHINA SEA
IN SONA
 With regard to the West Philippine
Sea otherwise known as [South] China
Sea, we strongly affirm and respect the
outcome of the case before the
Permanent Court of Arbitration as an
important contribution to the ongoing
efforts to pursue the peaceful resolution
and management of our disputes.
GOLEZ: I quote Secretary Yasay:

"China will be the 'loser' if it does not recognize an

international court ruling against its territorial claims in
the South China Sea, Philippine Foreign Minister Perfecto
Yasay said on Tuesday.

"An arbitration court in The Hague infuriated China in July

when it ruled that China had no historical title over the
South China Sea and it had breached the Philippines'
sovereign rights.

GOLEZ: (continued..)

"China has ignored the ruling that none of its claims in

the disputed Spratly Islands entitled it to a 200-mile (320
km) exclusive economic zone. Its construction work on
reefs there has alarmed other claimants, as well the
United States and Japan.

"We are trying to make China understand especially when

the dust settles that unless they respect and recognize
the arbitral tribunal, they will be the losers at the end of
that day on this matter," Yasay told a congressional
hearing. #
GOLEZ: It is good that some people who
wanted to set aside the ruling of the Arbitral
Tribunal did not prevail.

President Duterte on Wednesday told

visiting US Secretary of State John Kerry the
Philippines would negotiate its territorial
dispute with China using as basis the recent
international arbitral decision upholding the
legitimacy of the Philippine position.

GOLEZ: (continued..)

The President did mention that whatever

talks we will engage in will begin with the
ruling, that will be the foundation
 JAPAN
ANNOUNCED TO
JOIN JOINT
CRUISES WITH US
GOLEZ: Japan, a dependable friend, is prepared to join patrols
to keep the South China Sea free. It will also give military aid to
the Philippines and Vietnam. The Philippines should do its share
since it is Philippine interest that is protected:

"(CNN)Japan is planning on upping its activities in the South

China Sea through joint training patrols with the United States
and exercises with regional navies, Japanese Defense Minister
Tomomi Inada said.

"Japan would also be giving military aid to countries such as the

Philippines and Vietnam as it increases its role in the contested
waters of the South China Sea, Inada said Thursday at the Center
for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in
Washington, DC"
GOLEZ:
This is the view from Global Times, a known mouthpiece
of the Chinese government. Global Times is espousing a
collision course between China and Japan. I quote from
this article:

"The joint patrol, once it begins, is the "gunboat policy" of

the 21st Century against China. China should resolutely
begin military deployment on its expanded Nansha Islands
to balance the situation, and should notify ASEAN
countries beforehand to allow the international society to
know the cause of the increased tension.

GOLEZ: (continued..)

"If the joint patrol intensifies or involves more countries

and severely disturbs regional order, China should then
declare a South China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone.
By then, China will have a system of a cluster of militarized
islands and air defense identification zones to counter US
and Japanese warships, which could become China's
strategic progress.

"Japanese naval ships should be the major target of China.

Chinese warplanes may take sophisticated actions like low
altitude flyby against the ships to pressure Japan.

GOLEZ: (continued..)

"China should also increase pressure on Japan at the

Diaoyu Islands and significantly increase frequency of
patrols by coast guard ships. Tokyo is currently the most
enthusiastic side in hyping up tension in the South China
Sea. It intends to curb China in the South China Sea,
hoping to create space for itself in the East China Sea."

#
BEIJING, Sept. 20 (Xinhua) -- A Chinese
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tuesday
urged Japan to take its neighbors' security
concerns seriously and act prudently in
military and security fields.
GOLEZ: Here's China lecturing Japan to "take
neighbors' security concerns seriously." How
absurd! China should first take the security
concerns of its distant neighbor the
Philippines which China has surrounded with
artificial islands ready to be militarized,
backed up by frigates and coast guard ships
plus hundreds, maybe thousands, of invading
fishing vessels.
TWO RED LINES
ANNOUNCED
GOLEZ: China is trying to bully Japan with this red line
announcement for Japan to keep out of the South China
Sea most of which the arbitral tribunal in effect declared
as outside China's EEZ. I quote from the article:
"Japan and the United States held their first bilateral
naval drill in the South China Sea in October 2015, the
same week that the U.S. Navy held its first FONOP by
sailing the USS Lassen, a guided-missile destroyer, within
12 nautical miles of Subi Reef and other nearby features
in the Spratly Islands. Since then, the United States has
conducted two other FONOPs: One in January 2016 in the
Paracel Islands and another in early May 2016 in the
Spratlys. Keeping with the pace of previous FONOPs, the
U.S. Navy should be due to stage another operation soon
in the South China Sea.
GOLEZ: (continued..)

"The possibility of Japan, or other countries, including

Australia, participating in U.S.-led FONOPs has increased
in the aftermath of a July 12 award in a case filed by the
Philippines against China on maritime entitlements in the
South China Sea. In that decision, a five-judge tribunal at
the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration
unanimously ruled that Chinas nine-dashed line claim in
the South China Sea held no meaning under international
law, among other findings."
FROM THE ARTICLE: A GROUP of retired ambassadors,
military officials, businessmen and academics have begun
Track 2 diplomacy with Beijing, with their Chinese
counterparts lauding the Duterte administrations decision to
set aside in the meantime an international arbitration ruling
favoring the Philippines in the dispute over the West Philippine
Sea (South China Sea).
In a statement, the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations
said it sent a mission to China for a series of dialogues with
their contacts and counterparts on September 13 to 15.
Track 2 diplomacy involves nongovernment, informal and
unofficial talks, which the council said was separate from the
Track 1 initiative by the government such as the
appointment of former President Fidel Ramos as special envoy
to China.
FROM THE ARTICLE: (continued..)

A GROUP of retired ambassadors, military officials,

businessmen and academics have begun Track 2 diplomacy
with Beijing, with their Chinese counterparts lauding the
Duterte administrations decision to set aside in the meantime
an international arbitration ruling favoring the Philippines in
the dispute over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).
In a statement, the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations
said it sent a mission to China for a series of dialogues with
their contacts and counterparts on September 13 to 15.

#
 PHILIPPINE
BENEFICIARY OF
MILITARY AID
FROM JAPAN
GOLEZ: Here's good news from dependable friend
Japan (a welcome friend in spite of the brutal
Japanese occupation years during the Second World
War to which we have moved on already as shown by
numerous Japanese investments and projects here).
This wish list is now being considered:

xxx equipment the Philippines need urgently to boost

its maritime security in the South China Sea. The list
included P-3C Orion maritime surveillance aircraft,
Shirane class destroyers, Hayabusa class missile patrol
boats, and Oyashio-class submarines.

GOLEZ: (continued..)

Normally we dont even have reservations of

transferring technologies, Jimbo pointed out.

However, the recipient, in this case the Philippines,

needs to have a better kind of training and operating
infrastructure before any military hardware is
transferred.
IS THE PHIL-US
ALLIANCE IN
DANGER?
GOLEZ: From the Wall Street Journal's viewpoint:
"Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte signaled an
abrupt departure from his nations longstanding
military reliance on the U.S., ordering his defense
secretary to seek gear from suppliers in China and
Russia to fight drug traffickers and insurgents.

"In another shift, he also said Tuesday that the

Philippines would stop patrolling the South China
Sea alongside the U.S. Navy, to avoid upsetting
Beijing. Instead, he said the nations military
would focus on combating drugs and terrorism."
GOLEZ: (continued..)
"The Philippines is looking at getting military
equipment from China and Russia, President Rodrigo
Duterte said Tuesday evening.
"Speaking in front of members of the Philippine Air
Force at Villamor Air Base in Pasay City, Duterte said
possible deals with Russia and China are "in the
pipeline" and that "offers are coming in." However, he
did not discuss the details of the proposals.
"Duterte also said China offered airplanes to the
Philippines because Beijing is "worried" about him.
#
And here's the latest message from the President, loud and clear.
MANILA - The Philippines needs the United States in the South China
Sea, where it is embroiled in a dispute with China, President Rodrigo
Duterte said Tuesday.
Duterte said he never told US troops to get out of the country, but they
might be asked to leave Mindanao at some time in the future.
I never said get out of the Philippines. After all, kailangan natin sila
dyan sa China Sea. Wala naman tayong armament [After all, we need
them in the China Sea. We dont have armaments], Duterte said in a
speech at an army camp in Compostela Valley province.
 The South China Sea, and
perhaps the entire Indo Pacific
region, at the crossroads.
A PRESENTATION FOR THE

by: ROILO GOLEZ

21 September 2016