PERT NETWORK

PERT & CPM

Terms related to PERT

Event Events are considered as Milestone of the
project such as the starting date and the
completion date of an activity.
Activity It is a task that is to be accomplished
to complete the project. It consumes time and
money.
Network It is the graphical representation of
project operations composed of events and
activities to complete the project within the
scheduled time.
Slack or Float Float or Slack is the time by
which an activity can be delayed without
affecting the duration of the project. It gives an
indication of criticalness of the activity.
 PERT & CPM

Slack time refers to event controlled network

Float time refers to activity controlled network
Critical Path : This is the longest path on which
all the events will have zero or minimum slack.
Total duration of a project = Latest Finish Time
- Earliest Start Time
AOA : Activity on arrow
A2 B
1 4
3 C D
 PERT & CPM

AON : Activity on Node

A D
C

PERT :
This method uses three time estimates : Optimistic
time, Most likely time and Pessimistic time.
Optimistic time (a): This is the shortest time for
completing an activity.
Most likely time (m): This refers to the time that
is expected to occur, if the activities are repeated
under exactly the same condition.
 PERT & CPM

Pessimistic time(b) : This is the longest time the

activity would take to finish.
Depending on the values of a, m and b the
resulting distribution of activity duration can take a
variety of forms. Typically, completion of a given
activity is assumed to follow Beta distribution, as
shown below :

Beta curve

Probability

a m tei b
Time duration of activity
 PERT & CPM

The
three time estimates are reduced into a
single expected time (tei ) which can be computed
using following formula :
tei = where
tei = Expected time of the ith activity
a = Optimistic time
m = Most likely time
b = Pessimistic time
The standard deviation, i of the completion time
of an activity is calculated as follows :
i =
The variance = = ()2
 PERT & CPM

Having found the critical path, the PERT methodology

assumes that the aggregation of the mean times
and the summation of variances of critical jobs
would yield the expected project duration(Te) and
its variance(VT).
For a given project, if the critical activities are 1,2,3,
..,k, we have
Te = te1 + te2 + te3 +..+ tek and
VT or T2 = 12 + 22 + 32 + + k2
The distribution of the project completion times is
normally distributed with = Te and = T . This can be
used to determine the probability of completing the
project by a given date.
If there are two (or more) critical paths in a given
network, then the one with largest variance value
should be used for determining Te and VT .
 PERT & CPM
Earliest Start Time - It is the earliest occurrence
time for the event from which the Activity arrow
originates.
Earliest Finish Time It is the earliest occurrence
time for the event from which the Activity arrow
originates plus the duration of the activity (t).
EF = ES + t
Latest Start Time This is the latest occurrence
time for the Node at which Activity arrow
terminates minus the duration of the Activity (t).
LS = LF t
Latest Finish Time This is the latest occurrence
time for the node at which Activity arrow
terminates.
Slack = (LS ES) or (LF EF)
 PERT & CPM

Rules for computing Earliest Finish Time

(EF) and Latest Finish Time (LF) :
1. Moving forward, find EF time (choosing the
maximum at activity intersection)
2. At last node, maximum EF = LF
3. Use return path to find LF time (choosing
minimum at every activity intersection)
 PERT & CPM

Problem 1. Project with following data are to be

completed. Draw the network and critical path.
(a) What is the minimum duration of the project?
(b)Determine the peak requirement of money and
the day on which it occurs in above schedule.

ACTIVI PREDECESSO DURATION COST

TY RS (DAYS) (Rs./DAY)
A - 2 50
B - 4 50
C A 1 40
D B 2 100
E A,B 3 100
F E 2 60
 PERT & CPM

EF LF
4 4

EF LF 3
9
C=1 9
EF LF A=2 7 EF LF
0
7 E=3 5
0
t=0 F=2
4
1
B=4 D=2
2
EF LF
4 4

EF = ES + t Slack = LS - ES
LF = LS + t Slack = LF EF
 PERT & CPM

Activi Duratio EF ES = EF LF LS = LF Event Activi

ty n -t -t Slack ty
(t) = on
LS Critic
ES al
Or path
LF -
EF
A(1-3) 2 2 0 4 2 2 No
B(1-2) 4 4 0 4 0 0 Yes
C(3-5) 1 5 4 9 8 4 No
D(2-5) 2 6 4 9 7 3 No
E(3-4) 3 7 4 7 4 0 Yes
Critical
F(4-5)Path
2 : 1 2
9 37 4 5 9= 4 +
7 3 +2 =0 9 days
Yes
(a) Therefore, minimum duration of the project = 9 days
 PERT & CPM

(b) Gantt chart is drawn below :

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
A C
B D
E
F
DAY ACTIVITY REQUIREMENT OF MONEY
1 A +B 50 + 50 = 100
2 A+B 50 + 50 = 100
3 B +C 50 + 40 = 90
4 B 50
5 D+E 100 + 100 = 200
6 D+E 100 + 100 = 200
7 E 100
8 F 60
9 F 60
 PERT & CPM

Problem 2. (a) Draw the network using activity on

node (AON) system and find the critical path for the
project.
ACTIVITY DESIGNATIO PREDECESSO TIME IN
N R WEEKS
DESIGN A - 21
BUILT B A 5
PROTOTYPE
EVALUATE C A 7
TEST D B 2
PROTOTYPE
WRITE EQPT. E C,D 5
REPORT
WRITE F C,D 8
METHOD
REPORT
WRITE FINAL G E,F 2
REPORT
 PERT & CPM

(b) Using 3 time estimates of activities, find

probability of completing project in 35 weeks.

ACTIVITY TIME ESTIMATION

a = Most b= m = Most
optimistic Pessimistic likely time
time time
A 10 12 28
B 4 4 10
C 4 6 14
D 1 2 3
E 1 5 9
F 7 8 9
G 2 2 2
 PERT & CPM

EF LF EF LF
28 36
28 36
EF LF
C,7 F,8
EF LF
21 38
21 38
G,
A,21 2

E,
5
33
D, 36
B,5 EF
2
LF 26 28
26 28
EF LF EF LF
 PERT & CPM

Activi Durati EF ES = EF LF LS=LF Slack = On

ty on -t -t LS - ES critical
(t) Path
A 21 21 O 21 0 0 Yes
B 5 26 21 26 21 0 Yes
C 7 28 21 28 21 0 Yes
D 2 28 26 28 26 0 Yes
E 5 33 28 36 31 3 No
F 8 36 28 36 28 0 Yes
G 2 38 36 38 36 0 Yes

There are two critical paths :

(1)A C F G
(2)A B D F - G
 PERT & CPM

Activity a b m Expected
Activity
Completion
Time
Te =(a + 4m +
b)/6
A 10 12 28 22.33
B 4 4 10 8
C 4 6 14 11
D 1 2 3 2.5
E 1 5 9 7
F 7 8 9 8.16
G
Completion2time of 2Critical path
2 A C 2 F G =
22.33+11+8.16+2 Expected project
completion time =

= 43.49
 PERT & CPM

Completion time of Critical path A C F G =

22.33+11+8.16+2

= 43.49 weeks
Completion of critical path A B D F G =
22.33+8+2.5+8.16

+2 = 42.99 weeks
So, the total project completion time = 43.49 weeks
Q. The owner of a restaurant is considering a
new computer project for inventory control. A
computer company sent the following
information about the system installation :
Activity Immediate Most Most Most
predecessor Optimist Likely Pessimis
ic Time Time tic Time
A - 4 6 8
B A 5 7 15
C A 4 8 12
D B 15 20 25
E B 10 18 26
F C 8 9 16
G E 4 8 12
H D,F 1 2 3
I G,H 6 7 8
(a) Determine critical path and expected project
completion time.
(b)Determine the probability that the project will be
completed in 55 days.

3 E
5

B D G

A 2
H
1 6 7 8
I
C
F
4
Calculation of expected time and variances
Activit a m b Tei i = (b- i2
y =(a+4m+b)/ a)/6
6
A (1-2) 4 6 8 6 4/6 4/9
B (2-3) 5 7 15 8 10/6 25/9
C (2-4) 4 8 12 8 8/6 16/9
D (3-6) 15 20 25 20 10/6 25/9
E (3-5) 10 18 26 18 16/6 64/9
F (4-6) 8 9 16 10 8/6 16/9
G (5-7) 4 8 12 8 8/6 16/9
H (6-7) 1 2 3 2 2/6 1/9
I (7-8) 6 7 8 7 2/6 1/9
Length of different project paths from the project network :
Path : 1-2-3-5-7-8 = 6+8+18+8+7 = 47 days
Path : 1-2-3-6-7-8 = 6+8+20+2+7 = 43 days
Path : 1-2-4-6-7-8 = 6 + 8 + 10 + 2 + 7 = 33 days
(a) Using the expected time of activity duration, we obtain the critical
path as
1 2 3 5 7 8 since the duration of this path is longest.
Thus we have the expected project length, Te = 6+8+18+8+7
= 47 days
The variance of the project length, VT = 4/9 + 25/9 + 64/9 + 16/9 + 1/9
= 110/9
(b) The project duration is
normally distributed with
Mean(TE ) = 47 days
Standard deviation =(V T )=(110/9)
=3.496
The probability of project being
Completed in 55 days is equal to =47
55
The area under the normal curve lying to the left of X=55 as
shown in Figure above. We have, Z = (55-47)/3.496 = 2.29. From
the Normal Table, the area between Mean and Z = 2.29 under the
Normal curve = 0.4890.
Thus the required probability = 0.5 + 0.4890 = 0.9890