CONTENTS

Introduction
Review of literature
Materials and Methods
Result and discussion
Summary and Conclusions
Literature cited
 INTRODUCTION
Water places a robust play on earth, and it is says that no
water and no life on earth.
But some times an overflow of water from water bodies, such
as a river, lake, or ocean called as flood.
Floods cause a number of severe causes as economic loss,
loss of human life etc.
Hence for controlling this problem it is necessary to
estimates the flood, design and economic appraisal of a
variety of engineering works, including hydraulic structures,
economic evaluation of flood protection projects etc.
(Contd..)

Method for estimation and specified a flood event

occurrence called flood frequency analysis.
Flood frequency estimates is an important parameter in
water resources engineering, urban planning and storm
water management.
Estimation of magnitude and estimation of frequency of
occurrence of flood are essential for Proper design of
hydraulic structures like dam, spillway, culverts, irrigation
ditches etc.
 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
About 4000acres area comes around Banbasa and Nepal
border which will be affected by the flood, so it is necessary
to preventing and controlling this problem. Hence on the basis
of this problem, the main objective of this study considered as:
Analyzing the annual maximum discharge of the Sarda

River at Banbasa barrage in the vicinity of Tanakpur in

Champawat district using L-moments.
To estimates the statistical parameters such as weighted

probability moments, L-moments, L-moments ratio for the

annual maximum discharge of Sarda River.
 (Contd.)
To find out the distribution parameters and select the most
suitable distribution method.
To study the performance of different methods of distributions.
To check the goodness of fit using Z dist- statistic test applied for
all distributions used for the study.
Selected distribution is used to estimate the quantile function
for a range of return periods as 2years upto1000years.
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
 REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Some reviews given by many authors related to L-moments
application on different regions for flood frequency analysis:
J.R.M Hosking (1989), L-moments provide simple and more
efficient estimators of characteristics of the hydrological data of a
distributions parameters.
Hosking (1990), L-moments is the linear function of the available
data and less effective from variability of sampling of the data.
 (Contd)
Richard M. Vogel et al.(1993), studied the 23 sites of
Massachusetts based on L-moments methods. Generalized
Pareto distribution selected as the best fit for available data.
A Sankera Subramanian (1999), the study area in this
paper is considered the Central part of India (as Mahi,
Sabarmati, Narmada, Tapi, Godavari and Mahanadi).
(Contd)

Jeong soon park et al.(2001), study the maximum rainfall

of 61 gauging station over the South Korea. They have
achieved 90% of confidence design value of discharge by
wakeby distribution.
Rakesh Kumar et al. (2003), L-moments method used to
screening data of 11bridge sites of the middle Ganga
subzone of India.
(Contd)
Osadolor C. Izinyon (2015), 20 years maximum peak flood (1989-2008) used

for this study at Owan river basin in Nigeria.

Nicolas Hernandez (2000), Keshav P. Bhattarai (2002), Robert ware and frank

lad (2003), Rakesh Kumar and C. Chatterjee (2005), S. Saeid Islamya (2006),

Yongqin David Chen et al. (2006), Alper Serdar Anli (2006), Y.H. Lim (2007),

Betl Saf (2008), Leonardo V.Noto Goffredo La Loggia (2008), Sattar

Chavoshi Borujeni (2009), T. S. Gubareva and B. I. Gartsman (2010), Pengshi,

Xi Chen (2010), Tao yang, Xi Chen (2010), Ummi Nadiah Ahmad (2011), H.

Malekinzhad et al. (2011), L. Zaharia (2012) etc.

(Contd..)
Conclusion: About forty reviews given by authors on the L-
moments and it is clear that:
Recently many countries used L-moments method for flood
measurement and other environment impact models.
There is a need for analysis the flood by this advanced method,
which is necessary for design of hydraulic structures and many
other hydrological matters.
Hence in the present study application of L-moments methods are
chosen and applied for the site selected.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
 Study area
The Sarda River originates from the Greater Himalayas at
Kalapaani, at an altitude of 3600 m, in the Champawat
District of Uttarakhand.
It spreads from longitude 78 07 to 80 29 E and its
latitude is 29 16 to 30 05 N.
It flows 223 km along the Nepal and 323.5 km along to India
up to its confluence with Ghaghara River.
( Contd)
Sarda, a major tributary of Ghaghara River pierces through the
Shivalik Hills and emerges into the Ganga Plain in the vicinity
of Tanakpur in the Champawat district of Uttarakhand.
Maximum (85%) precipitation generally occurs during June
and August.
Location map of the study
Banbasa or Sarda barrage
 Data Availability
The Sarda river of Kumaon region of Uttarakhand are taken up
for data availability.
The annual flood discharge data collected from Irrigation
Department, for river Sarda near Banbasa barrage, Champawat
district.
The chosen catchment area is a south east part of Champawat
district.
Average annual rainfall in the basin is 1500 mm.
 (Contd)
The Catchment area of the basin is 15100 Sq.km.
Its minimum discharge is 3284 m3/s and maximum discharge
is 15417m3/sec.
Annual maximum discharge of Sarda river from the year 1930
to 2015 with a record length of 86 years used for the analysis.
Annual Peak discharge data at Sarda barrage from
1930-2015 years
18000

16000
discharge in m3/sec

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
year
 METHODOLOGY
The aspects for methodology used for development of L-
moment based flood frequency relationship for Sarda river
annual maximum discharge as well as estimate the quantile
function for different return period using most suitable
distribution method for Sarda river maximum annual
discharge data are discussed as follows:
PWMs (Probability weighted moments) and L-moments
Frequency distributions used
Goodness of fit measures
(Contd..)
L-moments
L-moments of a random variable were first introduced by Hosking
(1979).L-moments method is one of the best and simple method for flood
estimates. These give the simple and proper estimation of distribution
parameters and characteristics of the data which are used in hydrologic
application.
Definition:
linear combinations of weighted probability moments called L-

moments(Hosking 1979).
Also an alternative technique which gives information about the
shapes of probability distributions.
Probability weighted moments
The primary use of probability weighted moments (and the related L-
moments) is in the estimation of parameters for a probability
distribution(Greenwood et al. 1979).
Estimates based on probability weighted moments are often
considered to be superior to standard moment-based estimates.
L-moments are easily calculated by using Probability weighted
moments.
(Contd)
Hosking (1990) and Hosking and Wallis (1995) show the
relationship between probability-weighted moments and L-
moments.
Hosking and Wallis (1995) recommend using the unbiased
estimators of probability-weighted moments for almost all
applications.
Expressions for PWMs are given as:
 (Contd.)
Where i represents first four PWMs that can be used as
unbiased sample estimators for any distribution.
Where (Xj) rank of annual maximum series.
Where n shown the record length of the data.
First four L- moments are given as (Hosking and Wallis,
1979)
 (Contd..)
where 1, the mean, is a measure of location and

2 is a measure of scale or dispersion of random variable.

 L-moments ratios
L-CV or () = 2 / 1

(3) = 3 / 2

(4 ) = 4 / 2

Where
L-CV or () L-coefficient of variation
(3) represents L-coefficient of Skewness

(4 ) represents L-coefficient of kurtosis

(Contd.)
L-skewness defines shape or symmetry of the sample.
Symmetric distributions have 3 = 0 and its values lie between
-1 and +1.
4 is a measure of peakedness and defined as L-kurtosis.
Types of distributions used for the analysis
Generalized extreme value distribution (GEV)
Generalized Pareto distribution (GPA)
Pearson type III distribution (PE3)
Generalized logistic distribution(GLO)
Wakeby five parameters distribution (WAK)
Distribution Expressions
s
General extreme
x (F) = u + {1- (-ln F) k}/ k ; k0
Where, u, and k
value distribution location, scale and
x (F) = u - ln (- ln F) k=0
(GEV) shape parameters
Where, u, and k
x (F) = u + [ [ 1 - {(1-F) / F}k ] / k; k0
Generalized logistic are location, scale
distribution (GLO) x (F) = u - ln {(1-F) / F}; k=0 and shape
parameters.
x(F) = u+{1-(1-F)k}/k; where, u, and k
Generalized Pareto
distribution (GPA) k 0 are location, scale
x (F) = u-ln(1-F) and shape
k=0 parameters
respectively
where, , and k
Generalized normal are its location,
distribution (GNO) scale and shape
parameters
respectively
(Contd..)

x
F ( x) G , ( )
Pearson Type-III distribution (PT-III)

F ( x)




1 1 F 1 1 F

Wakeby distribution (WAK)
where, , , , , and are the parameters
of the Wakeby distribution.
 Zdist - Statistic as a goodness-of-fit measure

Main objective to identify the most suitable distribution for the

Sarda river annual maximum discharge. The goodness-of-fit

measure for a distribution is given by statistic .

Z idist
i
R
idist
idist
 (Contd..)
Where iisR weighted average of L-Moment statistic
and,

The distribution giving the minimum value of Z dist - Statistic considered as the
best fit distribution.
 (Contd..)
A distribution is considered as goodness of fit if its value is
sufficiently close to a reasonable criteria being 1.64(Hosking,
1993).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Probability weighted moments and L-moments statistics for Sarda River annual maximum flow
given as:

Parameters Value
7903.669
4763.152
PWMs 3466.395
2741.712
7903.669
L-Moments 1622.635
123.127
96.545
(Contd)
L-Moment ratios

L-CV() 0.206
L-skew (3) 0.075
L-kurtosis (4) 0.052
Identification of most suitable distribution
In this study Zdist statistic method used for goodness of fit for
the data analysis.
Aim of goodness of fit test is identify the most suitable
distribution which fits observed the data acceptably closely.
(Contd)
Zdiststatistic for different types of distributions
S.NO. Different type of Distribution Zdist statistic
value
1 Generalized pareto (GPA) 1.81
2 Generalized extreme value (GEV) 1.82
3 Pearson type III (PE3) 1.92
4 Generalized normal (GNO) 2.05
5 Generalized logistic (GLO) 3.68
( Contd)
According to the Zdist statistic test the acceptable value of the most
suitable distribution should not be more than 1.64.
So for further data analysis the five parameters distribution as
wakeby distribution considered the most suitable distribution.
The Wakeby distribution has been used for modeling flood flows.
The Wakeby distribution is a five-parameter probability
distribution defined by the transformation as given in previous
slide.
 WAKEBY DISTRIBUTION

Wakeby distribution has five parameters, more than most of the

distributions, and so can attain a wider range of distributional
shapes than the common distributions.
This makes the wakeby particularly useful for simulating artificial
data for in studying the robustness, under changes in distributional
form, of method of data analysis.
This distribution has advantages over other probability distributions
because its parameters are found using the probability weighted
moments that represent in lineal trend the characteristics of the
sample.
(Contd..)

The estimated parameters of wakeby distribution are given

as:
Distribut Parameters of the distribution
ion

WAK = 0.41 = 1.110 = 1.307 = 0.081 = 0.243

Where parameters , and are shape parameters and

Parameters and are location parameters.
(Contd)
Expression for wakeby distribution using the parameters given
as in previous slide.
WAK = 0.41+0.849{1-(1-F) 1.307}-0.333{1-(1-F)-0.243}
Where F denoted probability of non-excedeence and
expressed as:
F = (1- 1/T)
Where T is return period.
 ( Contd)
Growth factors (QT/Qm) for wake by distribution:

Distribu Return period (Years)

tion
2 10 25 50 100 200 500 1000

WAK 0.979 1.469 1.644 1.785 1.947 2.135 2.437 2.714

For estimating the quantile function using most suitable

distribution (wakeby) multiplying the each growth factor with
mean value of annual maximum discharge.
Design Values of Maximum Discharge Using Growth Factors
Return Growth Maxi. Dis. = Growth
period factors factor*mean(7906.3) (m3/s)
2
0.979 7740.26
10
1.469 11614.35
25
1.644 12997.96
50
1.785 14112.75
100
1.947 15393.57
200
2.135 16879.95
500
2.437 19267.65
1000
2.714 21457.70
Design Values of Maximum Discharge Using Wakby
Distribution
S. No. Return period (years) Flood in (m3/s)
1 2 7740.26
2 10 11614.35
3 25 12997.96
4 50 14112.75
5 100 15393.57
6 200 16879.95
7 500 19267.65
8 1000 21457.7
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)
Used for measuring the accuracy of a statistical data.
Expression for RMSE =
Where (Xi) are the observed values of discharge and (Yi)
are the predicted values computed from the assumed
probability distributions.
Record length of the data denoted by n and m is the
number of parameters estimated for the distribution.
 (Contd)
It represents a Standard Deviation between observed and the
estimated value of the sample data.
Minimum value of RMSE for a distribution is selected as the
most suitable distribution in accuracy for flood frequency
analysis.
 Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for Different Distributions

Different type of Root mean square

S. No
distribution Error (RMSE)
1 Generalized pareto (GPA) 395.555
2 Generalized extreme value 349.524
(GEV)
3 Pearson type III (PE3) 4255.861
4 Generalized normal (GNO) 3123.048
5 Generalized logistic (GLO) 460.676
6 Wakeby 303.393
(Contd)
Minimum value of RMSE is 303.393 for Wakeby
distribution.
Hence Wakeby distribution is selected as the most
suitable distribution method in accuracy for flood
frequency analysis of Sarda River.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Summary: The following summary is drawn after the
application of Methodology
In this study flood frequency analysis has been carried
out based on L-moments approach (86 years annual
maximum flow).
The parameters estimation for these distributions has
been carried out by L-moments method.
(Contd)
According to Zdist statistic test criteria the Wakeby
distribution has been identified as the most suitable
distribution.
For a range of return periods from 2 to 1000 years
design value of discharge calculated for available data
using best suitable distribution as Wakeby distribution
or.
The mean value of observed (annual maximum
discharge) data multiplied with the corresponding
values of the growth factors.
(Contd...)

Design values for quantile function vary as for 2 years

7740.268 m3/sec and for 1000 years 21457.7m3/sec.
Root mean square the minimum (RMSE) value 303.3 for
Wakeby distribution.
 SCOPE FOR FURTHER STUDY
The present study has taken up only one site of Sarda river
Catchment area hence for regionalization more gauging
sites data need to be studied.
The study has a good application in flood hazard mapping
of any region.
Measuring the density of gauging network for a river basin
which provides the possibility of planning and
development water resources for a country.
 CONCLUSIONS
After analyzing the annual maximum flow of Sarda River on the
basis of L-moment method, it is concluded that :
Wakeby is the most suitable distribution for Sarda flood
frequency analysis.
The estimated quantile function for a range of return period by
L-moments method can be used for design hydraulic structures
.
(Contd..)

More number of distributions needs to be applied so that proper

recommendations may be given for use of distributions.
Controlling and preventing the future flood condition for Sarda
River.
L-moments are more accurate and best suitable for design purpose
of a hydraulic structures and flood frequency analysis.
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thank you