In collaboration with …

Universities
Industry
Research centres
What is zerocarbonbritain2030

• zerocarbonbritain2030 is the first fully integrated

solution to climate change.

• It offers a positive, realistic vision grounded in the

latest climate science.

• It provides political, economic and technological

solutions to the urgent challenges raised in
tackling climate change
Exploring synergy
Scope: Greenhouse gasses
Our wellbeing depends on:
• Climate stability
• Energy security
• Economic stability
• International cooperation
Climate Security
• Global emissions must cut by 72% from
1990 levels by 2050 for an 84% chance
of avoiding two degrees warming.
(Meinshausen - 2009)
Climate Security
• Britain, as a long industrialised country
need to make deeper, faster cuts to
account for our ecological debt.
• The cuts we propose are possible
Energy Security
Economic Security
Economic Security
• Estimates indicate replacing North Sea
extraction with imports would add
£53 billion to the UK annual trade deficit
• In addition the Exchequer raised nearly
£13 billion from offshore oil & gas in 2008
Equity - taking a global lead
• Sector by Sector:
– Built environment
– Transport
– Land-use
– Industry
– Behaviour
• A 56% reduction in energy use by 2030
 Built-environment
• Natural materials - low emboidied energy &
sequestration
• Insulating - retro-fit.
• Thermal mass - heat storage
Transport
• Change of energy source from fossil fuels
– Electrification of cars, trains & LGV’s
• Modal shift - private car to public transport,
walking and cycling
• Reduction in passenger km
Transport: modes (km)

NOW 2030
Powering up
• All our energy needs, at all times, can be
met with 100% renewables.
• We can meet the challenges of variability
• We’ve only used proven technologies
Estimate the Tomorrow
money UK £196,000
renewable
energy reserves
would inject into
the economy!
• Exports of up to 17%, earning
£7bn annually
• Decrease in overall energy use, but doubling
of electricity production.
Delivered Electricity

Offshore
wind
Delivered Heat and Electricity

Offshore
wind
Electricity, Heat & Transport
2030

Heat
pumps
Offshore
wind
Variability managed by:
• Smart grids
• Limited use of biogas
• EU Super-grid
• Thermal-mass of building stock
LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE APPROACH
It makes sense

Rationalisation of demand

Emissions
envelope

Low/Zero Carbon supply systems

Net-negative processes
 I.Mech.E. Model
• Similar to ZCB in principle, to 80%
• Uses nukes, CCS, renewables to power up
• Purely technical measures to power down
• Mechanical air capture for net-negative
A land-intensive
example
See
www.withouthotair.com

Energy Density
Source MWavg/km2

Biomass ~0.5

Wind ~3-4
CSP ~15
Area functions in the Scenario
Urban land
Biodiversity
Amenity
Recreation
Protected
areas etc
53Mt food
Food
Energy
Sequestration
Other
-68MtCO2e

176TWh
primary
energy
 GHG EMISSIONS, PRODUCTIVITY AND AREAS FOR AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCT GROUPS IN BRITAIN
20000

15000

10000
Nutrionally-
adjusted output
GHG emissions
5000
Area used

OUTPUT, KT/Y. OATS

LAND-EQUIVALENT
SOILS BEET
FRUIT
AREA, 0.25KHA RAPE EGGSPIGS
SHEEP BEEFMILK
EMISSIONS, KTCO2E/Y. NUTRIONALLY-EQUIVALENT
BARLEY WHEAT
POTATOES POULTRY
ARTIFACTS HORSES etc
OTHER CROPS VEGETABLES
IN-SITU BIOMASS
-5000 PEAS AND BEANS PROTECTED CROPS
PRODUCT GROUPS IN TWO CLASSES, AND SEQUESTRATION PROCESSES,
RANKED BY GHG EMISSIONS
20000

15000

10000

5000

Nutritionally-
0
adjusted
SILO BEET PIGS
BEEF MILK product
IN USE SOILS
IN-SITU OATS FRUIT RAPE SHEEP EGGS
-5000 BIOCHAR BARLEY WHEAT
PEATLAND POTATOES FARM FISH etc POULTRY GHG
HORSES
VEGETABLES
OTHER CROPS emissions
PEASPROTECTED
AND BEANS CROPS
-10000
Area used

-15000

-20000

-25000
Some surprising benefits

• Food security
• Food quality
• Biodiversity
• Rural life and livelihoods
Food Security
• A smaller area than present is used for food
production
• Yet there is more food, not less
• Britain provides an abundant and balanced diet from
within its own borders
• Imports are reduced to less than 20%, nearly all
‘luxury’ products
• Likely to be an enhanced role for the food processing
industries
Food Quality
• There would be a lower
level of livestock
products, particularly
red meat and dairy
• Yet the mix of foods
available closely matches
the recommendations
for a healthy diet
• Can the UK food industry
develop a new and
better UK cuisine?
Meat ‘n ten veg?
Biodiversity
• There would be large and rapid changes in land use
• Yet there would be increased abundance of favourable habitats in
forests and biomass crops
• Use of agricultural chemicals would also be reduced
• An increase in overall biodiversity is expected
• Scenery remains varied and attractive
Rural livelihoods
• The land use sector would have a much greater
significance in the UK economy
• High carbon prices would favour labour over equipment
and materials
• ‘Carbon Farming’ would be an opportunity to re-invent
UK agriculture
• There would be a very large number of associated rural
jobs
• This is essentially a NEW PARADIGM for food, agriculture
• ‘and land use in the UK
 ORGANIC?
• Follows calls from Soil Association report for
– A larger organic sector
– Improved practice in the non-organic sector
• Switch to biomass crops requires less fertiliser
and pesticides
• Large inputs of organic matter to soils
• Livestock sector shifts from quantity to quality
• Still provision for about 10% mineral nitrogen
Balance of GHG emissions from
land use processes – at present
 Summary of our results
ZCB LAND-USE SCENARIO: BALANCE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE
EMISSIONS

90

80

70

60 Livestock products"
Crop products
50
Imports
40
Negative emissions
30

20

10

0
POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE EMISSIONS, MTCO2E/Y
NEGATIVE POSITIVE
 Integrated Policy
International security

Economic security

Energy security Climate security

A mix of policy options
• Internationally binding deal involving cap on emissions

• A mix of national policy options that allow equitable

access to energy for all

• Deliberate reconstruction of the UK economy to one that

is stable, resilient and exists within the world’s ecological
limits.
A Green New Deal
• Hundreds of thousands of new jobs
• Re-skilling for the long-term
• More predictable energy price
• Setting a global lead….
Essential elements to rapid decarbonisation
• A transition to zero emissions in the UK is possible,
and will create an aspirational and vibrant society.

• Britain is a long industrialised country and has been

burning fossil fuels for 150 years. We have a
responsibility to set a global lead, and we have the
means to deliver it.
Essential elements to rapid decarbonisation
Power Down:
• A massive retrofit and the insulation of buildings to reduce
heat demand.
• A shift from private to public transport.
• The electrification of the transport system.
• An end to domestic and large cuts to international aviation.

Power up:
• Meet 100% of energy needs from renewable sources, eliminating the
need for new nuclear or fossil fuels.
Essential elements to rapid decarbonisation
Land Use:
• A shift towards a healthier diet through a dramatic reduction in meat
and dairy products, particularly ruminant livestock, that will free up
land for food, sequestration and fuel.

Behavioural Change:
• Cultural and educational interventions that raise awareness of the
issues and solutions to bring about a zero carbon Britain.
The solutions to the climate, energy and the economic crisis already
exist. We need a confident popular movement to inform, inspire and
enable a zero carbon future. This is a call to join us in working towards
a zero carbon Britain.
 Download or buy from

www.zerocarbonbritain.com