Live Webinar

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French Elections:
Expectations
&
Reactions
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Thanks!

My name is Justin Paolini

- 10 years of experience trading
FX of which 3 were spent first as
a Sales Trader and then as a
Broker.
Welcome to todays webinar. - 6 years of experience as an
educator, with contributions
published on Yahoo! Finanza,
Trend Online, FX Street

- Lecturer for the University of

Ancona on Trading and Market
Dynamics (since 2012)
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French Election: Expectations & Reactions

Exit polls for the first round likely from 8pm CET on 23 April

Le Pen still on course to win, followed by Macron. But the

recent rise in Mlenchons popularity has added a new twist

A high number of voters (36%) are still undecided meaning any

of the top four candidates could conceivably make the run-off

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French Election: timing & what to watch

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French Election: timing & what to watch

French law prohibits the French media from publishing exit

polls before 8pm CET, when the final polls close.

Indications may appear on foreign media websites earlier.

There will also be official estimates of turnout at 12pm and
5pm on the day.

Surveys indicate that turnout could be low, which we think

could favour the far-right nationalist candidate, Marine Le Pen.

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French Election: the Wild Card Melanchon?

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 French Election: the Wild Card Melanchon?
Renegotiate EU treaties and hold Frexit ref
End independence of the ECB
EU-sceptic and anti-globalisation stance (a-
la-LePen)
Rejects free trade agreements and the rules
of the Stability and Growth Pact
Advocates alliance of southern European
countries to fight austerity
Wants Bank of France to buy public debt
and repeal the El Khomri labour market
reforms.

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French Election: the Wild Card Melanchon?

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French Election: who is the best salesman?
Income key issue likely to influence vote with Unemployment second place

Mlenchon may have gained ground by focussing on this in particular

relative to Le Pen whose top priorities (notably terrorism and crime) perceived
as less important.

Dont lose sight of the fact that most polls have indicated that Le Pen will win
the first round, ahead of Macron.

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 French Election: Recap & Main Points
Large undecided vote = potential for lower turnout to affect the outcome.
Lower turnout = greater the uncertainty
Key metric from 2002: turnout was only 21% at midday,58% at 5:00 PM. Less
than this and expect nasty surprize (LePen?)
Four candidates in the running with Macron vs Le Pen most the likely second-
round scenario. Positive surprise would be Macron vs. Fillon; negative would be
Le Pen vs. Melenchon.

JPY to gain the most if Le Pen or Melenchon elected

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Justin Paolini

THANK YOU!

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