must understand what determines value and how to measure it.
FAIR MARKET VALUE:
V IRS of the US has defined fair market value as ´the price at which the property change hands between a willing buyer and a willing seller when the former is not under any compulsion to buy and the latter is not any compulsion to sell, both the parties having reasonable knowledge of relevant facts. V Adjusted book value V Stock and debt approach V Direct comparison approach V Discounted cash flow approach r The simplest approach to valuing a firm is to rely on the on formation found on its balance sheet. r The accuracy of the book value approach depends on how well the net book values of the assets reflect their fair market values. r THERE ARE THREE REASONS WHY BOOK VALUES MAY DIVERGE FROM MARKET VALUES: 1. Inflation drives a wedge between the book value of an asset and its current value. 2. Thanks to technological changes some assets become obsolete and worthless even before they are fully depreciated in books. 3. Organizational capital, a very valuable asset, is not shown on the balance sheet. r Kash r Debtors r Inventories r Other current assets r Fixed tangible assets r Non-operating assets Adjusting book value to reflect liquidation values The most direct approach for approximating the fair market value of the asset on the balance sheet of a firm is to find out what they would fetch if the firm were liquidated immediately. r When the securities of a firm are publicly traded its value can be obtained by merely adding the market value of all its outstanding securities. This approach is called the stock and debt approach. r The efficient market hypothesis has two important implications for appraisal practice: 1. Where stock and debt approach can be applied, it will produce the most reliable estimate of value. 2. The securities of the firm should be valued at the market price obtaining on the lien date. Averaging of prices over a period of time is not correct. It reduces the accuracy of appraisal. V Thedirect comparison approach involves valuing a company on the basis of how similar companies are valued in the market place. V . Vc
V appraised value of the target firm (asset) observed variable for the target firm that supposedly drives value Vc observed value of the comparable firm observed variable for the comparable firm 1. Analyze the economy 2. Analyze the industry 3. Analyze the subject company 4. Select comparable companies 5. Analyze subject and comparable companies 6. Analyze multiples 7. Value the subject company V The relationship of the industry to the economy as a whole V The stage in which the industry is in its life- cycle V The profit potential of the industry V The nature of regulation applicable to the industry V The relative competitive advantages of procurement of raw materials, production costs, marketing and distribution arrangements, and technological resources r ÿroduct portfolio and market segments covered by the firm r Availability and cost of inputs r Technological and production capabilities r Market image, distribution reach, and customer loyalty r ÿroduct differentiation and economic cost position r Managerial competence and drive r Quality of human resources r Kompetitive dynamics r Liquidity, leverage and access to funds r Turnover margins and return on investment V Firm value to sales V Firm value to book value of assets V Firm value to EBDIT (also called ÿBDIT) V Firm value to EBIT V Equity value to equity earnings (price- earnings multiple) V Equity value to net worth (market to book ratio) V Valuing a firm using the discounted cash flow approach calls for forecasting cash flows over an indefinite period of time for an entity that is expected to grow. V The value of the firm is separated into two time periods: Value of the firm present value of cash flow during an explicit forecast period + present value of cash flow after that explicit forecast period 1. Forecast the cash flow during the explicit forecast period 2. Establish the cost of capital 3. Determine the continuing value at the end of the explicit forecast period 4. Kalculate the firm value and interpret results V Selecting the explicit forecast period V Defining the free cash flow to the firm V Getting a perspective on the drivers of free cash flow V Developing the free cash flow forecast V The FKFF is the sum of cash flows to all investors of the firm, both creditors and shareholders. It can be broken down into two components : operating free cash flow plus non-operating cash flows. V The operating cash flow is the post-tax cash flow generated from the operations of the firm after providing for investments in fixed assets plus net working capital required for the operations of the firm. V Non-operating cash flow arises from extraordinary or exceptional items like profit from sales of assets, restructuring expenses, and payments for setting legal disputes. Such items, of course, be adjusted for taxes. FKF NOÿLAT ² Net investment FKF (NOÿLAT + Depreciation) ² (Net investment ² Depreciation) FKF Gross cash flow ² Gross investment NOÿLAT stands for net operating profit less adjusted tax. NOÿLAT EBIT ² Taxes on EBIT EBIT profit before tax + interest expense ² interest income ² non-operating income Taxes on EBIT tax provision from income statement + tax shield on income expense ² tax on interest income ² tax on non-operating income Net investment Gross investment ² Depreciation
NON-OÿERATING KASH FLOW
Non-operating income × (1 ² tax rate) Therefore, FKFF NOÿLAT ² NET INVESTMENT + NON-OÿERATING KASH FLOW Thus, the FKFF equals the total funds available to investors, which is also referred to as financing flow. The financing flow comprises the following elements: Financing flow after-tax interest expense + cash dividend on equity and preference capital + redemption of debt - new borrowings + share buybacks - share issues + excess marketable securities - after-tax income on excess market securities V THERE ARE TWO STEÿS IN ESTIMATING KONTINUING VALUE: (i) Khoose an appropriate method (ii) Estimate the valuation parameters and calculate the continuing value V KASH FLOW METHODS (i) Growing free cash flow perpetuity method KV FKF
KV continuing value at the end of year T FKF expected cash flow for the first year after the explicit forecast period k weighted average cost of capital g expected growth rate of free cash flow for ever (ii) Value driver method KV NOÿLAT ( 1 ² )
KV continuing value at the end of year T NOÿLAT expected NOÿLAT for the first year after the explicit forecast period k weighted average cost of capital g constant growth rate of NOÿLAT after the explicit forecast period r expected rate of return on net new investment V NON-KASH FLOW METHODS (i) Replacement cost method - The continuing value is equated with the expected replacement cost of the fixed assets of the compan (ii) ÿrice-earnings method - The expected earnings in the first year after the explicit forecast period is multiplied by a ¶suitable· price-to-earnings ratio (iii) Market-to-book ratio method - The continuing value of the company at the end of the explicit forecast period is assumed to be some multiple of its book value. The following parameters have to be estimated: V Net operating profit less adjusted taxes (NOÿLAT) V Free cash flow (FKF) V Return on investment capital (ROIK) V Growth rate () V Kost of capital () V The value of the firm is equal to the sum of the following three components: 1. ÿresent value of the free cash flow during the explicit forecast period 2. ÿresent value of the continuing value (horizon value) at the end of the explicit forecast period 3. Value of non-operating assets (like excess marketable securities) which were ignored in free cash flow analysis. V Understand how the various approaches compare V Use at lest two different approaches V Work with a value range V Go behind the numbers V Value flexibility V Blend theory with judgment V Avoid reserve financial engineering V Beware of possible pitfalls V Adjust for control ÿremia and non- marketibility factor V Debunk the Myths surrounding valuation