Peak Oil

imminent decline of Oil Age

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 Presentation
Flow
What is Peak Oil

Impact of Peak Oil

Alternative Energy Sources

Coping with Peak Oil

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 What is Peak Oil?
Concept of Peak Oil developed in
the 1950s by U.S. geologist M. K.
Hubbert

Hubbert discovered that oil

production from each oil-well
follows a bell-shaped curve

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 Peak Oil

World-wide Hubbert curve can be worked out

by integration of regional curves
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 Hubberts Model for US Oil
Inwells
1956, Hubbert predicted that oil production in the
US lower 48 states would peak in the early 1970s

Hubbert was proved right: US oil production peaked

in 1971, and has been steadily declining ever since
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 Peak Oil

As per ASPO , total rate of world-wide oil / oil

equiv. of natural gas production reached a
peak in 2008 and subsequently started a
terminal decline 7
Once Peak Oil is crossed, crude oil and natural
 Impact of Peak Oil
95% of energy used in transportation is from
oil, no ready substitute at present

Global Trade and Modern Agriculture critically

dependent on oil

Oil provides feedstock for petrochemicals,

lubricants, plastics

Estimates for occurrence of Peak Oil vary :

pessimistic : we are already past the
peak
very optimistic : Year 2032
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Even if pessimistic predictions are discounted ,

 Why estimates of Peak Oil
vary
Authentic data is not easily available

OPEC countries
- Inflate their Reserves data to earn
higher quota
- Production rate is manipulated from
time-to-time
to avoid fall in prices

Combined effect : precise prediction of

peak oil is difficult 9
 Various Predictions of World Oil
Production Peaking
Simmons: 2007-2009
Goodstein: 2007-2009
Skrebowski: After 2007
Bakhtiari: Before 2010
Douglas - Westwood: early 2016
EIA : 2016
Shell: After 2020
Campbell: Around 2010
USGS 95% probability : 2032
USGS 5% probability : 2012
(source : Community solutions.org)
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 Impact of Peak Oil
Peak Oil means weve used up about half of
natures bounty of oil and gas

The half that is used was the easy part to

extract

From the peak onward, every barrel will be harder

and more expensive to produce

Eventually, itll take more energy to extract the

remaining oil than the energy value of extracted
oil (economic non-viability

Oil Shortages and price rise will cause

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economic
disruption and reverse globalization to
EROEI measures the ratio :
Energy Return On Energy
Resultant oil extracted
Investedto
Equivalent oil barrels used in the process of
oil extraction

Before 1950 it was about 100 to 1

In the 1970s it was down to 30 to 1

Now its about 10 to 1

The Tar Sands have an EROEI of about 4 to 1

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 Alternative Energy Sources
Non-renewable alternatives:
Coal
Nuclear
Methane hydrates (Ice-like crystals that trap
natural gas, mainly on the ocean floor)
Renewable alternatives:
Wind
Hydro
Solar
Future alternatives :
Hydrogen (energy carrier)
Fusion

All of the above can not readily replace Oil

which presently contributes 40% to
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all our
Energy needs
 Coping with Peak Oil
Conscious efforts to reduce primary
oil consumption
- Improving public transport
- use of bicycles
- reducing non-essential travel

Sustainable, self-reliant community

lifestyle in place of consumerist,
unsustainable one
- home gardens and urban
community farms
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- local recycling (zero wastage)

Few quotes :
Former US President Bush: We have a
serious problem: America is addicted to
oil.

Chevron Will You Join Us Ad: Oil

production is in decline in 33 of the 48
largest oil producing countries, yet energy
demand is increasing around the globe as
economies grow and nations develop.

Victor Khristenko, Russias Industry

Minister: One can say with certainty that
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the era of cheap hydrocarbons is over.

 better to be cautious than
be sorry

The barrel is half

empty

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Thank You !

Q & A
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