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Forward Contract Valuation
Example: BOB and ANDY (a real estate
related)
Andy has a property X cost = $1,00,000
Bob agreed to Buy X at a future date (one
year from today) @ $1,04,000 from Andy.
Andy and Bob entered into a Forward
Contract, so at the time of expiry/maturity
of the contract, the prevailing market price
would either profit buyer or seller
2
On execution date, the price of the
property was $1,10,000.
If we observe in case the property hiked
from $1,00,000 to $1,04,000, Andy earned
$4000 , but if current price rise up till
$1,10,000 and execution price is $1,04,000
therefore Andy has loss of $6000.
How Forward Price should be
agreed Upon
In a normal circumstance Andy can sell his
house today @$1,00,000.
Why he would go for Forward Contract?
To gain Profit.
What possible gain he could get and that
gain without any risk?
BANK gives INTEREST @ 4% = ?
$4000 would be earning profit on
$1,00,000
2
The minimum set FORWARD PRICE should
be= $1,04,000 so that even if Andy dont
get profit of $4000 from bank, he would
earn from Bob by selling @ same profit.
The determination of FORWARD
PRICES
ASSET= INVESTMENT / CONSUMPTION
Investment: (stocks, shares, bonds)
Consumption: (copper, oil, food grains)
COMPOUNDING:
Normally,
But, if it COMPUNDED (M)A(1+R)n
Terminal value= times per annum then
F = (S - D) x e ^ (r x t)
Here, D equals the sum of each dividend's
present value, given as:
D = PV(d(1)) + PV(d(2)) + ... + PV(d(x)) = d(1) x
e ^ -(r x t(1)) + d(2) x e ^ -(r x t(2)) + ... + d(x)
x e ^ -(r x t(x))
assume that the security pays a 50-cent dividend
every three months.
Notations
T= Time remained up to delivery date in the
contract
S= Price of the underlying asset at present,
also called as spot or cash or current.
K= Delivery price in the contract at time T.
F= Forward or Future price today
f= value of a long forward contract today
r= Risk free rate of interest per annum today.
t= Current or today or present period of
entering the contract.
The Forward Price for INVESTMENT
ASSET (Securities)
Investment Assets providing no INCOME
Investment Assets providing a Known
INCOME
Investment Assets providing no INCOME
Borrow Buy
Go Pay off
Short Loan
Profit
Possible outcome
F= Se^rT
If F>Se^rT then the arbitrageur can BUY
the Asset and will go for SHORT forward
contract on the asset.
If F<Se^rT then he can short the asset and
go for long Forward contract on it
KNOWN INCOME
Usually stocks paying known dividends and
coupon-bearing bonds.
Consider a long forward contract to purchase a
coupon-bearing bond whose current price is
$900. we will suppose that the forward
contract matures in 9 months. We will also
suppose that the coupon payment of $40 is
expected after 4 months and 9-months risk-
free interest rates (continuously compounded)
are respectively, 3% and 4% per annum.
F0= (S0-I)S^rT
Forward Contract- Delivery
A delivery of the underlying asset at the date
agreed upon in a forward contract. At the
forward delivery, one party will supply the
underlying asset and one will buy the asset.
The terms and price of the asset was the one
agreed upon at the onset of the contract or
trade date.
2
The contract must include the security to
be sold
the price at which it is to be sold,
the date the payment is to be received and
include any other terms of the trade.
Forward contracts are normally used to
hedge the party from negative price
fluctuations in the underlying asset.
Forward Cancellation
Forward contract needs to be cancelled if a
customer so desires
This cancellation would involve taking an
opposite position with reference to current
position
This cancellation may be done either on
Due date
Early (before due date)
Steps for cancellation
Cancellation Early
on due date cancellation
Original Original
position position:sell$for
:sell$forward ward
Opposite Opposite
position:buy$spo position:buy$fo
t rward
Importer
Cancellation Early
on due date cancellation
Original Original
position position:buy$fo
:buy$forward rward
Opposite Opposite
position:sell$spo position:sell$for
t ward
FUTURES
A future contract , just like a forward contract is an
agreement between the two parties to buy and sell
an asset, in future at a certain time and at a certain
price. Wherein a future contract is traded on an
organized or regulated exchange and are thus
bought and sold by the open outcry.
In other words, a future contract can also be
explained as a standardized agreement for
exchanging specific type of goods, in a specific
amount and at a specific future delivery or maturity
dates.
I
EXAMPLES
If a farmer plans to grow 500 bushels of wheat next year,
then he can either grow the wheat and then sell it for
whatever the price of wheat is at that point of time, or he
can simply lock a price now by selling a future contracts that
will obligate him to sell the 500 bushels at a fixed price . By
doing so he can eliminate the risk of falling wheat prices.
An oil producer plans to produce 1 million barrels of oil ready
for delivery in exactly 365 days. Assuming that the price is
$50 per barrel. Thus if the oil producer enters into a future
contract priced at $53 per barrel, then the producer is
obligated to deliver 1 million barrels of oil and is guaranteed
to receive $53 million. And this $53 per barrel will be
received by the producer regardless of where the spot
market prices are at that time.
UNDERLYING ASSETS IN FUTURE
CONTRACT
UNDERLYING UNDERLYING
COMMODITIES FINANCIAL ASSETS
Wheat Foreign currency
Sugar Stock
Copper Bonds
Aluminum
Gold
FEATURES
STANDARDIZATION
TRADED OVER EXCHANGE
LIQUIDITY
LOW COUNTER PARTY RISK
USED FOR HEDGING
EXPIRATION
Futures & Forwards Distinguished
FUTURES FORWARDS
They trade on exchanges Trade in OTC markets
Are standardized Are customized
Identity of counterparties is Identity is relevant
irrelevant
Regulated Not regulated
Marked to market No marking to market
Easy to terminate Difficult to terminate
Less costly More costly