Seminar Keuangan Publik

Agenda
Peran Pemerintah dalam perekonomian
Barang publik dan eksternalitas (MDGs, Sustainable Growth)
Kebijakan fiskal
Kebijakan moneter
Utang pemerintah dan kesinambungan fiskal
Kebijakan penerimaan pemerintah (amnesti pajak?)
Penilaian kinerja Pemerintah (Penganggaran, Spending
Review?)
Jaminan sosial (social security)
Desentralisasi fiskal
Public Private Partnership
Sektor Internasional (arus modal, arus barang dan jasa)
Krisis ekonomi
Strategi pembangunan/kebijakan industri

2
Dampak Kebijakan Fiskal

Notes:
1. Close economy, perfectly immobile international capital
2. Open economy, perfectly mobile international capital 3
3. Intermediate case
Growth Accounting
Output growth Contribution of
Source Period Physical Human
per worker TFP
capital capital
Bosworth, et al., 1995 1980-1986 2.6 3.2 0.5 -1.1
1986-1992 3.9 2.6 0.5 0.8
Collins and Bosworth, 1996 1973-1984 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.5
1984-1994 3.7 2.3 0.5 0.9
Sarel, 1997 1978-1996 4.7 2.9 0.6 1.2
1991-1996 5.1 2.2 0.7 2.2
World Bank, 2005 1967-1980 5.0 2.0 0.5 2.4
1981-1997 3.8 2.5 0.5 0.8
1998-1999 -8.8 0.9 0.5 -10.0
2000-2003 2.1 0.4 0.4 1.2
1967-2003* 3.4 2.0 0.5 0.9

During development stage, physical capital accumulation is the largest contributor of

economic growth. Investment is crucial for economic growth.
To increase economic growth, government may influence physical capital, human capital,
and productivity.

4
Equilibrium in the IS -LM model
The IS curve represents r
equilibrium in the goods LM
market.
Y C(Y T ) I (r) G
r1
The LM curve represents
money market equilibrium.
IS
M P L(r ,Y )
Y
Y1
The intersection determines
the unique combination of Y and r
that satisfies equilibrium in both markets.
The short-run equilibrium
The short-run equilibrium r
is the combination of r
LM
and Y that simultaneously
satisfies the equilibrium
conditions in the goods &
money markets:
Y C(Y T ) I (r) G IS
Y
M P L(r ,Y ) Equilibrium
Equilibrium
interest
rate level of
income
 An increase in government purchases
1. IS curve shifts r
right 1 LM
by G
1 MPC
causing output & r2
2.
income to rise. r1
2. This raises money
1. IS2
demand, causing the
interest rate to rise IS1
Y
3. which reduces investment, Y1 Y2
so the final increase in Y 3.
1
is smaller than G
1 MPC
 A tax cut
Consumers save r
(1MPC) of the tax cut, LM
so the initial boost in
spending is smaller for T
r
than for an equal G 2.
r21
and the IS curve shifts by
1. IS2
MPC
1. T IS1
1 MPC
Y
Y1 Y2
2. so the effects on r 2.
and Y are smaller for T
than for an equal G.
 Monetary policy: An increase in M
r
1. M > 0 shifts LM1
the LM curve
down LM2
(or to the right) r1
2. causing the
interest rate to fall r2

3. which increases IS
investment, causing Y
Y1 Y2
output & income to
rise.
The Central Banks response to G > 0

Suppose Government increases G.

Possible Central Bank responses:
1. hold M constant
2. hold r constant
3. hold Y constant
In each case, the effects of the G
are different:
 Response 1: Hold M constant
If Government raises G, r
the IS curve shifts right. LM
1

If Central Bank holds M

r2
constant, then LM curve r1
doesnt shift.
IS2
Results:
IS1
Y Y2 Y1 Y
Y1 Y2
r r2 r1
 Response 2: Hold r constant
If Government raises G, r
the IS curve shifts right. LM
1 LM
To keep r constant, 2
r2
Central Bank increases M r
1

to shift LM curve right. IS2

Results: IS1
Y Y3 Y1 Y
Y1 Y2 Y3

r 0
 Response 3: Hold Y constant
If Government raises G, r LM
the IS curve shifts right. 2 LM
1

To keep Y constant, r3
r2
Central Bank reduces M r1

to shift LM curve left. IS2

Results: IS1
Y 0 Y
Y1 Y2
r r3 r1
Monetary Policy Transmission
The Interest Rate
Channel
The most commonly discussed channel, in which an increase in the money supply, lowers
the real interest rate, which in turn stimulates investment and therefore GDP. The effect of
monetary policy on the real interest rate works through an assumption of sticky prices.

Exchange Rate
Channels
Lower short-term real interest rates imply that domestic denominated assets
are less attractive than foreign assets leading to a decrease in demand for
dollars (capital outflow). The subsequent depreciation makes domestic goods
cheaper than foreign goods and leads to an increase in Net Exports, and
therefore in GDP as well.

Bank Lending Channel

Expansionary monetary policy, which increases bank reserves and bank
deposits, increases the quality of bank loans available. This increase in loans
will cause investment and consumer spending to rise.

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Monetary Policy Transmission

15
 Bank Indonesia

Interest rate channel (income approach)

Overnight
Overnight Deposit
Deposit Rate
Rate Credit
Credit Rate
Rate of
of Consumptio
Consumptio Private
Private
rate
rate 1 - month
1 - month Consumption
Consumption n
n Credit
Credit Consumption
Consumption

Interest rate channel (cost of capital approach)

Overnight
Overnight Deposit
Deposit Rate
Rate Credit
Credit Rate
Rate of
of Investment
Investment Investment
Investment
rate
rate 3
3 -- month
month Investment
Investment Credit
Credit
GDP
Bank lending channel
SBI Inflation
Banks
Banks Reserve
Reserve Banks
Banks Credit
Credit

Exchange rate channel (indirect approach)

Interest
Interest Real
Real Exchange
Exchange Net
Net Export
Export
Rate
Rate Diff.
Diff. Rate
Rate
Exchange rate channel (direct approach)
Interest
Interest Nominal
Nominal
Rate
Rate Diff.
Diff. Exchange
Exchange Rate
Rate

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 Membangun Model Mundell-Fleming
Perekonomian Terbuka Kecil Di Bawah Kurs Mengambang
Dua persamaan (perhatikan tanda bintang di samping IS dan LM untuk mengingatkan
kita persamaan menganggap tingkat bunga konstan):

IS*: Y = C(Y-T) + I(r*) + G + NX(e) LM*: M/P = L (r*,Y)

Asumsi 1:
Tingkat bunga domestik sama dengan tingkat bunga dunia (r = r*).
Asumsi 2:
Tingkat harga ditentukan secara eksogen karena model digunakan untuk menganalisis
jangka pendek (P). Ini berarti kurs nominal proporsional terhadap kurs riil.
Asumsi 3:
Jumlah uang beredar ditentukan secara eksogen oleh Bank Sentral (M).
Assumption 4:
Kurva LM* kita akan vertikal karena kurs tidak masuk ke dalam persamaan LM* kita.
 Menderivasi Kurva Mundell-Fleming IS*
Perpotongan
(b)
Keynes

Pengeluaran, E
Kenaikan
Kenaikankurs,
kurs,menurunkan
menurunkan Y=E
ekspor
eksporneto,
neto,yang
yangmenggeser
menggeser
pengeluaran
pengeluaranyang
yangdirencanakan
direncanakan Pengeluaran direncanakan,
ke
kebawah
bawahdan
danmenurunkan
menurunkan E = C + I + G + NX
pendapatan.
pendapatan.Kurva
KurvaIS*
IS*meringkas
meringkas
perubahan
perubahanini
inidalam
dalamekuilibrium
ekuilibrium
pasar
pasarbarang.
barang.
Pendapatan, output, Y

(a) (c)
Kurva NX Kurva IS*
Kurs, e
Kurs, e,

NX(e) IS*

Ekspor neto, NX Pendapatan output, Y

 Menderivasi Kurva Mundell-Fleming LM*
Kurva LM
LM

Tingkat bunga, r
r = r*
Kurva
KurvaLM
LMdan
dan
tingkat
tingkatbunga
bungadunia
dunia
bersama-sama
bersama-samamenentukan
menentukan
tingkat
tingkatpendapatan.
pendapatan.
Kurva Pendapatan, output, Y
Kurva LM* vertikal
LM* vertikal
karena
karenakurs
kurstidak
masuk
masukke
tidak
kedalam
dalam
Kurva
LM* LM*
Kurs, e

persamaan
persamaanLM*.
LM*.
Ingat
Ingatpersamaan
persamaanLM* LM*: :
M/P
M/P==LL(r*,Y)
(r*,Y)

Pendapatan, output, Y
 Model Mundell-Fleming
Di Bawah KursKebijakan
Mengambang
Moneter Ekspansif

Kebijakan Fiskal Ekspansif e LM* LM*'

e LM*
++G, atauTT
G,atau ++MM
++e,e,bukan
bukanYY -
-e,e,++YY

IS*' IS*
IS*
Pendapatan, output, Y Pendapatan, output, Y

Ketika
Ketikapendapatan
pendapatannaik
naikdidiperekonomian
perekonomianterbuka
terbukakecil,
kecil,Ketika
Ketikapeningkatan
peningkatanjumlah
jumlahuang
uangberedar
beredarmenekan
menekan
karena ekspansi fiskal, tingkat bunga mencoba naik tapitingkat bunga domestik ke bawah, modal mengalirke
arena ekspansi fiskal, tingkat bunga mencoba naik tapitingkat bunga domestik ke bawah, modal mengalir ke
aliran modal dari luar menekan tingkat bunga
aliran modal dari luar menekan tingkat bunga luar karena investor mencari pengembalian lebih
luar karena investor mencari pengembalian lebih tingg tingg
ke bawah. Aliran ini menyebabkan kenaikan
ke bawah. Aliran ini menyebabkan kenaikan diditempat
tempatlain.
lain.Aliran
Aliranmodal
modalke keluar
luarmencegah
mencegahtingkat
tingkat
permintaan
permintaan mata uang mendorong nilainya ke atas Bunga turun. Aliran ke luar juga menyebabkankurs
mata uang mendorong nilainya ke atas Bunga turun. Aliran ke luar juga menyebabkan kurs
dan membuat barang domestik lebih mahal bagi terdepresiasi, membuat barang domestik
dan membuat barang domestik lebih mahal bagi terdepresiasi, membuat barang domestik lebih murah lebih murah
orang
orangasing (menyebabkanaaNX).
asing(menyebabkan NX).NX
NXmengatasi
mengatasirelatif
relatifterhadap
terhadapbarang
barangasing,
asing,dan
danmenstimulasi
menstimulasiNX.NX.
kebijakan
kebijakan fiskal ekspansif dan berdampak pada Y. Jadi, kebijakan moneter mempengaruhi e daripadar.r.
fiskal ekspansif dan berdampak pada Y. Jadi, kebijakan moneter mempengaruhi e daripada
 Model Mundell-Fleming
Di Bawah KursKebijakan
TetapMoneter Ekspansif
Kebijakan Fiskal Ekspansif
++G, orTT
G,or ++YY ++
no YY
no
e LM*
e LM* LM*'

IS*' IS*
IS*
Pendapatan, output, Y
Pendapatan, output, Y

Ekspansi
Ekspansifiskal
fiskalmenggeser
menggeserIS* IS*ke
kekanan.
kanan.Untuk
Untuk Jika
JikaBank
BankSentral
Sentralmencoba
mencobameningkatkan
meningkatkanjumlah
jumlahuau
menjaga kurs tetap, Bank Sentral harus meningkatkan
menjaga kurs tetap, Bank Sentral harus meningkatkan beredar dengan membeli obligasi dari publik, itu
beredar dengan membeli obligasi dari publik, itu akak
jumlah
jumlahuang
uangberedar,
beredar,menambah
menambahLM* LM*kekekanan.
kanan. menekan
menekantingkat
tingkatbunga
bungakekebawah.
bawah.Arbitrase
Arbitrasemeresp
meresp
Tidak seperti pada kurs fleksibel, tidak ada
Tidak seperti pada kurs fleksibel, tidak ada dengan
dengan menjual mata uang domestik ke banksentr
menjual mata uang domestik ke bank sent
dampak
dampakcrowding
crowdingoutoutpada
padaNXNXkarena
karenakurs
kurs menyebabkan
menyebabkan jumlah uang beredar dan kurvaLM
jumlah uang beredar dan kurva LM
lebih tinggi.
lebih tinggi. berkontraksi ke posisi awalnya.
berkontraksi ke posisi awalnya.
 Tetap vs.
Mengambang
Kesimpulan-kesimpulan Kurs
Kurs Tetap Kurs Mengambang
Kebijakan Fiskal Kuat. Kebijakan Fiskal Lemah.
Kebijakan Moneter Lemah. Kebijakan Moneter Kuat.

Model Mundell-Fleming menunjukkan kebijakan fiskal tidak

mempengaruhi pendapatan agregat di bawah kurs mengambang. Ekspansi
fiskal menyebabkan mata uang apresiasi, mengurangi ekspor neto dan
mengatasi dampak ekspansif yang biasa pada permintaan agregat.

Model Mundell-Fleming menunjukkan kebijakan moneter mempengaruhi

pendapatan agregat di bawah kurs tetap. Tiap usaha ekspansi jumlah uang
beredar sia-sia, karean jumlah uang beredar harus menyesuaikan untuk
memastikan kurs bertahan pada tingkat yang diumumkannya.
Macroeconomic Trilemma

Based on Mundell-Fleming Model, a country can only pursue two out of the
three policy objectives: exchange rate stability, free capital mobility and
monetary policy independence.
23
free capital mobility and monetary policy independence

24
exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence

25
exchange rate stability and free capital mobility

26
Saving and Investment
GDP C G I d X M

GDP C G I d X M
(GDP T C ) (T G ) I d X M
S p S g I d NX S p S g Sd
S d I d NX

YF TRF S d I d YF TRF NX YF TRF NX CA NFI

YF TRF S d I d CA NFI
YF TRF S d I d NFI YF TRF S d S n
S n I d NFI I d NFI I n
Sn I n

C : private consumption T : tax

X : export M : import
Id : domestic investment NFI : net foreign investment
Sd : domestic saving Sn : national saving
CA : current account balance YF : net factor income from abroad
G : government consumption TRF : net transfer from abroad
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Reliance to Domestic
Economy
Composition of GDP Export and Import Ratio to GDP

Source: IFS Source: IFS

External sector only contributed less than 10 percent of GDP. Export was below 30 percent
of GDP before the Asian crisis.
Reliance on domestic economy caused limited impact of contagion through international
trade channel. Therefore, contagion was mostly through financial channel.

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 Capital Inflows and Investment
(Yearly)
Current Acc. and Financial Acc. Ratio to GDP Saving and Investment Ratio to GDP
0.06 0.40
0.04 0.35
0.02 0.30
0.00 0.25
-0.02 0.20
-0.04 0.15
-0.06 0.10
-0.08 0.05
-0.10 0.00
-0.12 -0.05

current accounts financial accounts saving investment net export

Significant amount of government revenue comes from non-tax revenue.

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 Balance of Payment
20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

-5,000

-10,000

-15,000

Current Account Financial Account excl. Res.

30
 Current Account
10000.00

8000.00

6000.00

4000.00

2000.00

0.00

-2000.00

-4000.00

-6000.00

-8000.00

Goods and Services Compensation of Employee (Primary Income)

Investment Income (Primary Income) Current Transfer (Secondary Income)

31
 Exchange Rate and Current Account
6000.00 16000.00

4000.00 14000.00

2000.00
12000.00

0.00
10000.00

-2000.00
8000.00
-4000.00

6000.00
-6000.00

4000.00
-8000.00

-10000.00 2000.00

-12000.00 0.00

Current Account Exchange Rate

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 Financial and Current Account
20000.00

15000.00

10000.00

5000.00

0.00

-5000.00

-10000.00

-15000.00

Financial Account excl. Res. Investment Income (Primary Income) Goods and Services

33
 Financial Account
10000.00

8000.00

6000.00

4000.00

2000.00

0.00

-2000.00

-4000.00

-6000.00

-8000.00

Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Financial Derivatives Other Investment

34