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 Chapter Two
Forecasting

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Fig. 2-1
Forecast Horizons
in Operation Planning

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Fig. 2-2
Time Series Patterns

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Fig. 2-3
Forecast Errors Over Time

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Fig. 2-4
Moving-Average Forecasts
Lag Behind a Trend

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Fig. 2-5
Weights in Exponential
Smoothing

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Fig. 2-6
Exponential Smoothing for
Different Values of Alpha

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Fig. 2-7
An Example
of a Regression Line

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Fig. 2-8
A Seasonal Demand Series

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Fig. 2-9
Demand History
for Example 2.7

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Fig. 2-10
Seasonal Series
with Increasing Trend

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Fig. 2-11
Initialization
for Winterss Method

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Fig. 2-12
The Difficulty with
Long-Term Forecasts

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Fig. 2-13
Tracking the Mean When
Lost Sales are Present

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Fig. 2-14
Tracking the Standard Deviation
When Lost Sales are Present

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Fig. 2-15
Logistic Curve
(for Problem 45)

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