Warrantyand

Maintenance
DecisionMaking
SusanY.Chao*,ZuHsuLee,
andAliceM.Agogino

forGasTurbines
UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley

Berkeley,CA94720
*chao@garcia.me.berkeley.edu
leez@ieor.berkeley.edu
aagogino@euler.me.berkeley.edu
Acknowledgments
ManythankstoGeneralElectric
CorporateResearchandDevelopment
andtheUniversityofCalifornia
MICROProgram.
SpecialthankstoLouisSchickand
MaheshMorjariaofGeneralElectric
CorporateResearchandDevelopment
fortheirguidanceandintellectual
input.
GasTurbineBasics
Complexsystem:largenumberof
partssubjecttoperformance
degradation,malfunction,orfailure.
Turbine,combustionsystem,hotgas
pathequipment,controldevices,fuel
metering,etc.
Conditioninformationavailablefrom
operators,sensors,inspections.
GasTurbine
Maintenance
Enormousnumberofcandidatesfor
maintenance,soideallyfocusonmost
costeffectiveitems.
Maintenanceplanning(optimized,
heuristic,adhoc)determines:
Inspectionactivities
Maintenanceactivities
Intervalsbetweeninspectionand
maintenanceactivities.
MaintenancePlanning
On-line Statistical Analysis
Expert Subjective Probabilities
On-line Machine Learning
Knowledge Extraction
Diagnosis
Sensor Fusion
Maintenance
Planning
Sensor Validation

Sensor Readings Repair or Replace Parts

Inspection Results Order Inspections
GasTurbine
Warranty
Warranty/servicecontractforgas
turbinewouldtransferallnecessary
maintenanceandrepairresponsibilities
tothemanufacturerforthelifeofthe
warranty.
Fixedwarrantyperioddeterminedby
manufacturer.
Gasturbinecustomerpaysfixedprice
forwarranty.
4KeyIssues
Typesofmaintenanceandsensing
activities(currentfocus)
Priceofagasturbineandservice
contract
Lengthofservicecontractperiod
Numberofgasturbinesforconsumer
ConsumerProfit
Maximization
Howmanygasturbinesshouldthe
customerpurchase,ifany?

Maximize Rj (nj,w)(p1 + p2) *nj* -

n (w/* shutdown loss
ProducerProfit
Maximization
Howmuchshouldthemanufacturer
chargeforagasturbineengineand
warranty?
Howlongshouldthewarrantyperiodbe?

Maximize (p1 + p2 - m) *nj*

p1,p2,w
SubjectTo m=F0(xt,s,ts).
OptimalMaintenance
Whattypesofmaintenanceandsensing
activitiesshouldthemanufacturer
pursue?Howoften?

Deriveanoptimalmaintenancepolicy
viastochasticdynamicprogrammingto
minimizemaintenancecosts,givena
fixedwarrantyperiod.
SolveforF0(xt,s,ts).
GasTurbineWater
WashMaintenance
Focusonaspecificareaofgasturbine
maintenance:compressorwaterwashing.
Compressordegradationresultsfrom
contaminants(moisture,oil,dirt,etc.),
erosion,andbladedamage.
Maintenanceactivitiesscheduledto
minimizeexpectedmaintenancecost
whileincurringminimumprofitloss
causedbyefficiencydegradation.
Compressor
Efficiency
Motivation:iffuelis3/KWHr, then 1%
loss of efficiency on a 100MW turbine =
$30/hr or $263K/yr.
Onlinewashingwithorwithout
detergents(previouslynutshells)relatively
inexpensive;canimproveefficiency~1%.
Offlinewashingmoreexpensive,time
consuming;canimproveefficiency~2
3%.
DecisionAlternatives
On-line wash

Off-line wash

Major scouring

Major inspection Blade replacement

Do nothing
Do nothing
InfluenceDiagram
Current Total
Engine Maintenance
State, s Cost, v

Decision,
d
Last Average
Measured
Efficiency,
Engine
State, s xt
StochasticDynamic
Programming
Computesminimumexpectedcosts
backwards,periodbyperiod.
Finalsolutiongivesexpected
minimummaintenancecost,whichcan
beusedtodetermineappropriate
warrantyprice.
Givenenginestatusinformationfor
anyperiod,modelchoosesoptimal
decisionforthatperiod.
StochasticDynamic
Programming
Assumptions
Problemdividedintoperiods,eachending
withadecision.
Finitenumberofpossiblestatesassociated
witheachperiod.
Decisionandenginestateforanyperiod
determinelikelihoodoftransitiontonext
state.
Givencurrentstate,optimaldecisionfor
subsequentstatesdoesnotdependon
previousdecisionsorstates.
OtherAssumptions
Compressorworkingperformanceismain
determinantofengineefficiencylevel.
Workingefficiencyandenginestatecanbe
representedasdiscretevariables.
Currentefficiencycanbederivedfrom
temperatureandpressurestatistics.
Intraperiodefficiencytransition
probabilitydependsonmaintenance
decisionandenginestate.
DynamicProgram
Constraints

c1 c(d 1 ) P x t 1 x t , s , d 1 )
s x t 1


P s s, t t s loss( x t 1 ) Ft 1 ( x t 1 , s, t s )

c 2 c ( d 2 ) P x t 1 x t , s , d 2 )
s x t 1


P s s, t t s loss( x t 1 ) Ft 1 ( x t 1 , s, t s )
DynamicProgram
Constraints
c 3 c ( d 3 ) P s s, t t s
s

min c( d )

P x t 1 x t , s , d )
d d 4 ,d 5 ,d 6
x t 1 loss( x t 1 ) Ft 1 ( x t 1 , s , t s )

c7

P x t 1 x t , s , d 7 ) P s s, t t s
s xt 1 loss( x t 1 ) Ft 1 ( x t 1 , s, t s )
DynamicProgram
Constraints
c 3 c ( d 3 ) P s s, t t s
s

min c( d )

P x t 1 x t , s , d )
d d 4 ,d 5 ,d 6
x t 1 loss( x t 1 ) Ft 1 ( x t 1 , s , t s )

c7

P x t 1 x t , s , d 7 ) P s s, t t s
s xt 1 loss( x t 1 ) Ft 1 ( x t 1 , s, t s )

Ft(xt,s,ts)=min[c1,c2,c3,c7]
DynamicProgram
Simulation
User/OtherInputs ProgramOutputs

ServiceContractperiod Expectedminimum
Costofeachdecision maintenancecost
Lossesincurredateach Optimalactionforany
efficiencylevel period
Transitionprobabilities
forstateandefficiency
changes
TurbinePerformance
DegradationCurves*

*Source: GE
TurbinePerformance
DegradationCurves*

*Source: GE
OnlineWaterWash
Effects* indep1 etac l4ww shown

90

89.5

89

88.5

88
y = -0.0132x + 562.92

87.5

87

86.5

86
8/31/98 0:00 9/5/98 0:00 9/10/98 0:00 9/15/98 0:00 9/20/98 0:00

*Source: GE
OnlineWaterWash
Effects* indep1 flow l4ww shown

940

920

900

880

860

840

820

800 0.1
8/31/98 0:00 9/5/98 0:00 9/10/98 0:00 9/15/98 0:00 9/20/98 0:00 9/25/98 0:00

*Source: GE
EfficiencyTransition
Probabilities
1 2 3 4
X(t+1)
=
X(t)=
1 >0; >0; 0 0
1,2,4, 6,7
5,6,7
2 >0; >0; >0; 0
1,2,4,5 1,2,4, 6,7
6,7
3 >0; >0; >0; >0;
4,5 1,2,4 1,2,4, 6,7
6,7
4 >0; >0; >0; >0;
4,5 4 1,2,4 1,2,4,
6,7
Conclusions
Analyzedmaintenanceandwarranty
decisionmakingforgasturbinesusedin
powerplants.
Describedandmodeledeconomicissues
relatedtowarranty.
Developedadynamicprogramming
approachtooptimizemaintenance
activitiesandwarrantyperiodlengthsuited
inparticulartocompressormaintenance.
FutureResearch
Sensitivityanalysisofalluserinput
costs.
Sensitivityanalysisoftheefficiency
andstatetransitionprobabilities.