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Probability
The study of the occurrence of random events or phenomena.
It does not deal with guarantees, but with the likelihood of an
occurrence of an event.
Experiment:
- Any observation or measurement of a random phenomenon.
Outcomes:
- The possible results of an experiment.
Sample Space:
- The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
Event:
- A particular collection of possible outcomes from a sample space.
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Theoretical Probability:
P(E) =
n(E)
n(S)
10
100
1
10
0.0000139
=
P(female) =
835
1655
167
331
0.505
P(3) = 1/6
P(not 3) = 5/6
P(9) = 0
P(king or diamond) =
=
=
4/6 = 2/3
Probability Summary
The probability of union of two events (points
belonging to A or B or Both) is given by:
P(AB) = P(A)+P(B) P(AB)
Here, P (A) is the probability of event A,
P (B) is the probability of event B.
Also, P(AB) is the probability of the intersection of
eventsA and B.( Intersection - Points belonging to both A
and B)
P(AB) = P(A)+P(B)
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Independent events
one event has no influence on the
outcome of another event
if events A & B are independent
then P(A&B) = P(A)*P(B)
if P(A&B) = P(A)*P(B)
then events A & B are independent
coin flipping
if P(H) = P(T) = .5 then
P(HTHTH) = P(HHHHH) =
.5*.5*.5*.5*.5 = .55 = .03
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Probability Essentials
Each individual
outcome of an
experiment is
called
a. the sample
space
b. a sample point
c. an experiment
d. an individual
Sids CQs
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Probability Essentials
Any process that
generates welldefined outcomes
is
a. an event
b. an experiment
c. a sample point
d. a sample space
Sids CQs
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Probability Essentials
The sample space
refers to
a. any particular
experimental outcome
b. the sample size
minus one
c. the set of all
possible experimental
outcomes
d. an event
Sids CQs
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Sids AQs
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Sids AQs
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Assigning Probability
When the assumption of
equally likely outcomes
is used to assign
probability values, the
method used to assign
probabilities is referred
to as the
a. relative frequency
method
b. subjective method
c. probability method
d. classical method
Sids CQs
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Probability Essentials
Which of the
following
statements is
always true?
a. -1=<P(Ei)<= 1
b. P(A) = 1 - P(Ac)
c. P(A) + P(B) = 1
d. P>= 1
Sids CQs
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Probability Essentials
The addition law is
potentially helpful
when we are
interested in
computing the
probability of
Sids CQs
a. independent events
b. the intersection of
two events
c. the union of two
events
d. conditional events
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Probability Essentials
If P(A) = 0.68, P(A U B)
= 0.91, and P(A
(Intersection) B) =
0.35, then P(B) =
a.
b.
c.
d.
0.22
0.09
0.65
0.58
Sids AQs
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Probability Essentials
Given that event E has a
probability of 0.31, the
probability of the
complement of event E
a. cannot be determined
with the above
information
b. can have any value
between zero and one
c. 0.69
d. is 0.31
Sids AQs
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Sids CQs
a.
b.
c.
d.
0.00
0.06
0.7
0.8
Sids AQs
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Sids AQs
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Sids AQs
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Sids AQs
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Sids AQs
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Female (F)
Promoted (P)
288
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Not Promoted
(NP)
672
204
Total
Total
1200
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Solve This!!!
Educational Qualifications
Gender
Under
Graduate (U)
Graduate (G)
Male (M)
150
450
Female (F)
150
250
Total
Total
1.
2.
3.
https://www.ted.com/talks/hannah_fry_the_mathematics_of_love
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Probability Summary
Joint Probability Multiplication Rule
Mutually Exclusive Events:
P(AandB) = 0
Independent Events
P(AandB) = P(A)P(B)
Dependent Events
P(AandB) = P(A)P(B | A)
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Symbol
Statistical
Independenc
e
Statistical
Dependence
Marginal (or )
Unconditional
P(A)
P(A)
Sum of
probabilities of
the joint
events in
which A occurs
Joint
P(AB) (or)
P (A and B)
(or) P(A
P(A) x P (B)
P(A|B) x P (B)
P(BA) (or)
P (B and A)
(or) P(B
P(B) x P (A)
P(B|A) x P(A)
P(B|A)
P(B)
P(AB)/ P(A)
P(A|B)
P(A)
P(AB)/ P(B)
Conditional
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