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EXPERIMENTAL

PSYCHOLOGY

EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY
Psychology is the science of behavior.
As Psychologists, we take a scientific approach to understanding behavior
Anamnesis

Knowledge about Psychological Process is based on Scientific Evidence


accumulated through research.
Specifying the conditions
Observing in a systematic or orderly way
Accepting or rejecting alternative explanations of behaviors on the basis of
what we observe

Research about the Psychological Processes underlying Behavior is


Psychological Science

`
Science is Knowledge
Content (what we know - facts)
Process ( an activity, includes systematic ways in which we go about
gathering data, noting relationships, offering explanations)

The purpose of this course is to explain the process of psychological


research

THE NEED FOR SCIENTIFIC


METHODOLOGY
We randomly and routinely collect and use psychological data to
understand behavior of others and to guide our own behavior.

Bad mood
Conflicts
Rivals
Celebration

Commonsense Psychology
Everyday non-scientific data gathering that shapes our expectations and
beliefs and directs our behavior towards others.
Nonscientific data gathering can leave us up in the air (hanging).

NON-SCIENTIFIC SOURCES OF
DATA
Friends
Relatives
People in Authority
People we admire
Media
Books read
** Often not a good source of obtaining valid information about Behavior.
** Nevertheless, they are typically accepted without question.

NON-SCIENTIFIC SOURCES OF
DATA
These beliefs tend to become stable due to rare testing, people do not
validate.
Once we believe on something, we tend to overlook instances that might
disconfirm our beliefs and we seek instead for confirmatory instances of
behavior.

** Ex. Full moon brings out psychotic behavior. You will recount/remember
instances when people acted abnormally while the moon was full and will ignore
the many instances in which no unusual behavior occurred.
Thus, the term Confirmation Bias

NON-SCIENTIFIC SOURCES OF
DATA
Assimilate some myths, superstitions, pop psychology explanations for
behavior is unlikely to be avoided.
Do you believe in the power of Crystals?
Amethyst

: Increase intuition

Clear Quartz : Build inner strength


Pearls : For single ladies, ward off marriage
Do you read your horoscope, zodiac signs?
Do you knock on wood to avoid bad luck?
Do feel a bit anxious on Friday the 13th?

THE POWER OF NEGATIVE


THINKING
Friday the 13th
Has a mythical reason of being unlucky
A study conducted in Great Britain (West Sussex) found out that Friday
the 13th did appear to be an unlucky day for drivers.
More accident victims were treated on a Friday the 13th (as much as 52%)
even though fewer cars were driven that day.
Probably caused by increased trepidation about the date

NON-SCIENTIFIC SOURCES OF
DATA
Research has shown that we are more likely to believe information if it
comes from certain kinds of individuals:
Popular People (celebrities, artists)
Attractive
High in Status
Seemingly Expert
Highly Confident Individuals (Promos: marketing, sales)

NON-SCIENTIFIC SOURCES OF
DATA
Researchers have discovered that we are not always privy to our own
decision-making processes (Nisbett & Wilson, 1977)
French music and German music played on alternative days in a
supermarket display featuring two French and German wines of similar
price and sweetness.
French wine outsold German wine when French music was played and viceversa
Clearly, the music had an influence on purchases.
When asked, only 1 out of 44 people mentioned the music.

NONSCIENTIFIC INFERENCE
One of the first and most important kinds of data we collect about others
comes in the form of Traits we assign to them.
Classmate with a new gadget
Friend in branded clothing

:
:

Conceited (mayabang)

Vain

We tend to ignore or miss out on important information about the


situation (ex. Gadget was a gift from a rich relative, branded clothing are
privileges of mother from company where she works at)

NONSCIENTIFIC INFERENCE
SITUATIONS Classmate with a new gadget
Friend in branded clothing

: Vain

TRAIT Soft-hearted : Cry-baby, maawain


Millenials : Tech savvy, output-based
STEREOTYPING Batangas Local
Iloilo Local

: Loud

: malambing, soft-toned

Engineer : Math Genius

: Conceited (mayabang)

NONSCIENTIFIC INFERENCE
For decades, Psychologists have debated whether Traits or Situations are
better predictor of behavior.
There is evidence that both sides of the debate is probably correct some
of the time.
Traits might be more useful for predicting how someone will behave
over the long term.
Situations might be better predictors of momentary behaviors.
Gamblers Fallacy People are not good at using data as basis of
prediction
Overconfidence Bias

NONSCIENTIFIC INFERENCE
Psychologists believed it to be our brains own way of coping with too
much volume of information, shortcuts of managing the information
received.
Nonscientific Inference or the conclusions reached on the basis of
evidence and reasoning not following any systematic or objective process
is not enough source of information for an experiment or research.
Unless they are recorded and validated, it shall be considered as
nonscientific

SCIENTIFIC METHOD

Gather information
Verify information
Answer questions
Explain relationships
Communicate this information to others

Thus, characteristics of the scientific method.

EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY
Psychology is the science of behavior.
As Psychologists, we take a scientific approach to understanding behavior
Anamnesis

Knowledge about Psychological Process is based on Scientific Evidence


accumulated through research.
Research about the Psychological Processes underlying Behavior is
Psychological Science
Nonscientific Sources of Data
Confirmation Bias (full moon)
Negative Thinking

EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY
Nonscientific Inference
Trait, Situation, Stereotyping

Overconfidence Bias
The need for Scientific Method

THE SCIENTIFIC MENTALITY


The goal of prediction rests on a simple yet important assumption:
Behavior must follow a natural order, therefore, it can be predicted
Thus, Scientific Mentality by Alfred North Whitehead (1861-1947) was born.
He postulated that faith in an organized universe is essential to science.
If no inherent order existed, there would be no point in looking for one and no
need to develop methods for doing so.
Research psychologists share the belief that there are specifiable causes for the
way people behave and that these causes can be discovered through research.
Thus, determinism.

THE CHARACTERISTICS
OF MODERN SCIENCE

GATHERING EMPIRICAL DATA


Whitehead traced the beginnings of modern science to the works of the
Greek philosopher, Aristotle (384-322 BC)
Aristotle:
Assumed order exists in the universe
He set about describing that order is a systematic way by collecting empirical
data
Advocated systematic observation and careful classification of naturally
occurring events

GATHERING EMPIRICAL DATA


Aristotles Systematic Observation:
Heavy objects fall faster than light objects because their natural place
is down.
Galileos Experiment:
With proper testing conditions (testing objects in a vacuum), light objects
will fall just as fast as heavy ones.
Thus, they can be verified or disproved through investigation.

SEEKING GENERAL PRINCIPLES


Modern scientists go beyond cataloging observation to proposing general
principles (laws or theories) that will explain them.

DATA

SCIENCE

PRINCIPL
ES

generally applicable to all


situations

LAWS

SEEKING GENERAL PRINCIPLES


Tycho Brahe (astronomer, 1546-1601), painstakingly gathered
observations of the stars for nearly a lifetime.
Johannes Kepler (1546-1601) made these observations useful by
explaining them through a system of equations known as Keplers Laws.

GOOD THINKING
Central feature of the scientific method.
Approach to the collection and interpretation of data should be
systematic, objective and rational.
The scientist (should) avoid letting private beliefs or expectations
influence observations or conclusions.
Good thinking includes being open to new ideas rather than being
closed-minded even when they contradict our prior beliefs or attitudes.
It also follows the rules of logic.
Conclusions will follow from the data, whether they are in agreement with
your predictions of not.

GOOD THINKING
Another important aspect, principle of parsimony, sometimes called
Occams razor.
William Occam: Entities should not be multiplied without necessity
Simplicity, precision and clarity of thought
Avoid making unnecessary assumptions to support an argument or
explanation.
When two explanations are equally defensible, the simplest explanation is
preferred until it is ruled out by conflicting data.

**Coin, Paper, Direction: Generally accommodating (Filipino hospitality)

SELF CORRECTION
Modern scientists accept the uncertainty of their own conclusions.
Changes in scientific explanations and theories are an extremely important part of
scientific progress.
Experience favors a weight-of-evidence approach. The more evidence that
accumulates to support a particular explanation or theory, the more confidence we
have that the theory is correct.
**Link between media violence and aggressive behavior (Social Learning Theory)
**This theory asserted that people would perform the same kinds of aggressive
behaviors they had observed in films or on television by learning to imitate through
media models (actors, actress, etc.)

PUBLICIZING RESULTS
Modern science has become a highly public activity.
Scientists meet frequently through professional and special interest
groups and attend professional conferences to exchange information.
Scientific papers, organizational journals

REPLICATION
Another important part of scientific research.
We should repeat the same procedures and get the same results again if
we have gathered data objectively and if we have followed good thinking.
Findings obtained by one researcher have very limited scientific value.

EXPERIMENTAL
PSYCHOLOGY
PROF. MARIA LOURDES J. JAVIER, MIR
JUNE 14, 2016

QUIZ
1) Define Psychology
2) What is Psychological Science
3) What are the 2 components of Science? (2 points)
4) Why do we need scientific methodology or scientific method? (5
points)
5) What is Commonsense Psychology?
6) Sources of Nonscientific Data, give 5 examples. (5 points)
7) What is nonscientific inference, expound on 1 example. (2
points)
8) Define scientific mentality.

ALTERNATIVES TO
EXPERIMENTATION
The Primary purpose of an experiment is to establish a causal
relationship between a specified set of antecedent conditions
(treatments) and the subsequently observed behavior.
Antecedent preceding; prior

Subsequent coming after something in time.

INTERNAL VALIDITY
Is the degree to which a research design allows us to make causal
statements.
Research is high on internal validity if it can demonstrate with
certainty that the changes in behavior observed across treatment
conditions were actually caused by differences in treatments.
Researchers like to use laboratory experiments because they are
potentially high in internal validity.
Potentially due to varied critics:
Artificial
Unrealistic

EXTERNAL VALIDITY
Generalizability or applicability to people and situations outside the
research setting.
When observations can be generalized to other settings and other people,
they are high in external validity.
Nonexperimental designs are often preferred because they may have
greater external validity

RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
The degree of manipulation of antecedent conditions
Low to high
Letting things happen as they will to setting up carefully
controlled conditions

The degree of imposition of units (imposed units)

A STUDY ON EAC COMMUNITYS


CUSTOMER SERVICE (RELATION)

COIN

PAPER

DIRECTION

LOW ANTECEDENT

HIGH ANTECEDENT

Tracking behavior along


with subjects normal
schedule. It includes
students and admin.

Place subjects on specific


area of the campus (hallway,
lobby, classroom)
Place higher value (coin)
Identify lower level students
(paper)
Limit location to registrar,
accounting (direction)

The degree of imposition of units is an equally important


dimension.
This term refers to the extent to which the researcher constraints,
or limits, the responses a subject may contribute to the data.
Antecedent conditions and imposed units change independently
depending on the research approaches, experiments used.

TABLE OF RESEARCH ACTIVITIES

Deg High
ree

of
Medium
Imp
ositi Low
on
of
Unit
s

Low - High

Low Low

Medium - High
High - High

Medium - Medium

Medium Low
High - Low

Low
Medium
High
Degree of Manipulation of Antecedent
Conditions

5 COMMON NONEXPERIMENTAL
APPROACHES USED BY PSYCHOLOGISTS
1. Phenomenology
2. Case Studies
3. Field Studies
4. Archival Studies
5. Qualitative Studies

5 COMMON NONEXPERIMENTAL
APPROACHES USED BY PSYCHOLOGISTS
These approaches form an important source of data on human and
animal behavior.
They permit us to gather information and gain understanding when
experimentation is not desirable or possible.

PHENOMENOLOGY
Is the description of an individuals immediate experience.
Rather than looking at behaviors and events that are external to
us, we begin with personal experience as a source of data.
Focus is directed towards the subjects personal experience.
As a research approach, this falls near the low-low end of our
table of research activities.
Antecedents are not manipulated, and data may consist of any
immediate experience; no constraints are imposed.

PHENOMENOLOGY
Johannes Purkinje, 1787-1869 (Jan Evangelista Purkyne)

Interested in the physiology of vision.


He noticed that colors seemed to change as twilight
deepened:
Reds appeared black
Blues retained their hue

This observation lead to our understanding of spectral


sensitivity to colors of different wavelengths (Purkinje
effect).
Most automobile instruments are illuminated by red lights at

Simulated appearance of a red geranium and


foliage in:
normal bright-light (photopic) vision,
dusk (mesopic) vision, and
night (scotopic) vision

PHENOMENOLOGY
William James
Dealt with basic psychological issues, including habits, emotions,
consciousness, and the stream of thoughts.
He approached most ideas from the phenomenological perspective of
his own experiences.
One of his most appealing passages: difficulty in getting up in the morning
He pointed out that our resistance to getting up inhibits our movement.
While we concentrate on the pleasure of warm sheets and the dread of the cold
floor, we are paralyzed.
if we dont resist, we ought to be able to get out of bed without very much
effort

The phenomenological approach precludes experimental

PHENOMENOLOGY
Since Phenomenology deals with immediate experience, its conclusions
are instantaneous.
They emerge at once and need not wait upon the results of calculations
derived from measurements.
They do not use statistics, since a frequency does not occur at an instant
and cannot be immediately observed.
There is no assurance that observing your own behavior is free of any
alteration in some way by your attention to it.

CASE STUDIES
This method also involves no manipulation of antecedent conditions.
This is a descriptive record of a single individuals experiences, or
behaviors, or both, kept by an outside observer.
Involves systematically recording experiences and behaviors as they have
occurred over time.
Used by the following disciplines:
Clinical Psychology
Forensic Psychology
Organizational Psychology

CASE STUDY
GROUP 1

OBSERV
ER
GROUP 2

CASE STUDY
Kazdin (2003) argued that case studies serve five major purpose:
1. They are a source of inferences, hypothesis, and theories
2. They are a source for developing therapy techniques
3. They allow the study of rare phenomena
4. They provide exceptions, or counterinstances, to accepted ideas,
theories, or practices
5. They have persuasive and motivational value

CASE STUDY
1. They are a source of inferences, hypothesis, and theories
A case study may be used to make inferences about the impact of life events,
the origin of disorders, or developmental process.
This approach provided the first systematic data on the development of
childrens motor, cognitive and linguistic abilities.
Extensive records of the behaviors of individual children, arrived at descriptions
of normal developmental sequences.
Freuds case study on Little Hans (Freud, 1933): Hans was afraid of horses
Freuds analysis of Hans conversation with his Father and dreams he
reported suggests that it was a symbol for Hanss fear of his father and
anxiety about castration.
Such theory led to Oedipus Complex

CASE STUDY
2. They are a source for developing therapy techniques
As you understand the impact of such events more fully, you may be
able to devise more appropriate treatment techniques, as well as
preventive measures.
The talking cure in psychotherapy, began as a result of treatment of
hysterical symptoms in one of Freuds early cases.
Behavioral therapy techniques was formed from Mary Cover Joness
case study of a 3-yr old boy who was afraid of rabbits.

CASE STUDY
3. They allow the study of rare phenomena
Case studies are perfect forum for investigating unique cases or rare
problems.
Some variants of paraphilia (cross-dressing and sexual masochism)
Influences of testosterone therapy on a female-to-male transgendered
individual (2-yr period):
Diary entries were much more likely to mention social interactions
and the individuals connections with others at times when
testosterone was low.
Mentions of social connections were much less frequent at times
when testosterone was high
**increased testosterone can produce more anger, dominance, or
aggression which is not present in these transgendered subjects

CASE STUDY
4. They provide exceptions, or counterinstances, to accepted ideas,
theories, or practices
Case studies can provide evidence that casts doubt on theories or
generally accepted practices.
The psychoanalysis notion that it could be harmful to treat overt
symptoms of dysfunction without treating their base causes was
negated as counterinstances accumulated.
Simply treating outward symptoms with behavioral therapy
techniques is often very effective.

CASE STUDY
5. They have persuasive and motivational value
Case studies are sometimes a dramatic way to illustrate abstract
concepts.
to see is to believe
Advertisers frequently use case studies to sell products.

Case studies are so compelling, they excite interest and bring


about new research.

CASE STUDY:
LIMITATIONS
1. Working with only one or perhaps a few subjects.
Does not guarantee that they represent the general population.
2. Inability to observe the subject directly all the time.
Actual and available observation may not guarantee that it covers all
the relevant aspects of the subject.

3. Subjects may neglect to mention important information due to


personal bias (they believe it is irrelevant, embarrassing)

CASE STUDY:
LIMITATIONS
4. Frequently rely on retrospective data.
Retrospective data are data collected in the present that are based on
recollections of past events.
Individuals may not accurately remember all that had happened
Memories become altered or reconstructed over time by the cognitive
system
Retrospective data has an element of bias due to the situation or
venue, mood of data provider.

5. Aspects of the situation can trigger particular kinds of recollection


Painting, images, pictures
Unintended hints, clues from the therapist

FIELD STUDY
Nonexperimental approach used in the field or in real-life settings.
Often combined with various types of data gathering to capitalize on the
richness and range of behavior found outside the laboratory.
Antecedent conditions are not manipulated but the degree of constraint
on responses varies considerably from study to study.
Includes observational studies, studies on child development, market
research and studies of organizations.

FIELD STUDY:
DIFFERENT TYPES
1. Naturalistic Observation Studies
Is the technique of observing behaviors as they occur spontaneously
in natural settings.
Descriptive method, like phenomenology and the case study method,
no manipulation of antecedent conditions.
Subjects responses are free to vary.
This approach as been extensively used in animal behavior research
called ethology to study behavior in the wild as well as in captivity.
Researchers attempt to remain inconspicuous (stay out of sight).
Requires flexibility and adaptability to vast array of responses,
unanticipated and unconventional responses.
Requires decisiveness on who and when to observe and what to

FIELD STUDY:
DIFFERENT TYPES
Requires a lot of expertise not only in ethnography, but also in the
field that is being studied.
Dealing with specific samples of time may or may not contain the
behaviors we want to observe.
Multiple forms of data may need to be collected and this can be
difficult to compile and interpret.
Difficult to translate the findings of qualitative field studies into
design.

FIELD STUDY:
DIFFERENT TYPES
2. Participant-Observer Studies
The researcher becomes part of the group being studied.
Sometimes, this is the only method that can be used to study a group
especially when voluntary cooperation in not possible in a research
investigation (e.g. social experiments)
Group members are not told they part of the study to ensure objective
observations.
Does not usually include systematic observation or measurement
techniques.
Data gathered tend to be qualitative, impressions by researcher are
merely described.

FIELD STUDY:
DIFFERENT TYPES
Possibility of altering subjects behavior by mere presence of observer
in unknown ways.
Observers at times find difficulty to remain objective and unbiased.
At times, special relations are formed like friendship which makes it
more difficult to remain an objective scientist.
May contribute to some ethical concerns in the group, community.
**Behaviors are observed and recorded as they occur in the natural
setting, and subjects interviewed in the wild where the contaminating
effects of a laboratory setting are absent.

ARCHIVAL STUDY
Descriptive research method in which already existing records are
reexamined for a new purpose.
Vast amount of data collected by the government, private agencies,
hospitals, businesses, schools, institutes.
Information about crime, death rates, education levels, salaries, housing
patterns, disease rates are accessible to any researcher.
** Job mismatch: Product of Education vs. Available Industry Work

QUALITATIVE RESEARCH
Relies on words rather than numbers.
Focus on self-reports, personal narratives, and expression of ideas,
memories, feelings and thoughts.
Without understanding qualitative methods, one cannot fully appreciate
the breadth or research methodology.
Used to study phenomena that are contextual.

SURVEYS AND INTERVIEWS


Survey Research is a useful way of obtaining information about peoples
opinions, attitudes, preferences, and behaviors simply by asking.
Surveys allow us to gather data about experiences, feelings, thoughts and
motives that are hard to observe directly.
Surveys can be particularly useful for collecting data on sensitive topics because
they can be given anonymously, making it more likely that subjects will answer
truthfully.
Survey data can be useful for making inferences about behavior, although they
do no allow to test hypotheses about causal relationship directly.
Surveys allow us to gather large amounts of data efficiently.
Written questionnaires and face-to-face interviews are the two most common
survey techniques.

SURVEYS AND INTERVIEWS


Questionnaires can be handed out, sent through mail.
Surveys may be conducted through a computer, via internet.
Interviews cab be conducted face-to-face, over the phone.
The generalizability of survey and interview results is determined largely
by the procedures we use to select our subjects.

CONSTRUCTING SURVEYS
1. Map out your research objectives (as specific as possible)
Attitudes of psych. students toward group activities
Which group activity?
Activities done outside? or inside the classroom?
Sit-down activities? or Mobile activities?

2. Write one or more questions to evaluate each aspects .


3. Look up research done by others on your topic.
4. Put your objectives in writing so you can refer to them as you
construct your questionnaire .

DESIGN THE SURVEY ITEMS


1. Imposition of units
Long and free responses?
Restrict responses to a limited number of alternatives?
2. Closed question (structured questions)
Answered by limited number of alternatives
Simpler to quantify (by percentage, etc.)
3. Open-ended questions (open questions)
Solicit information about opinions and feelings

DESIGN THE SURVEY ITEMS


4. Content Analysis
Similar to coding behaviors using systematic observational
techniques.
Responses are assigned to categories that are created from the data
according to objective rules or guidelines.
Tips:
Keep items simple, and keep people involved
Ambiguous or incomprehensible questions cannot generate useful data.
Use language that is easy to comprehend.
Double-barreled (or compound) meaning responses with two or more
different ideas in the same questions should be avoided
Response choices need to be exhaustible meaning they need to contain all

SOME FIELDS WHICH USE


SURVEY RESEARCH
FIELD

EXAMPLES

Demographics

Census

Epidemiology

Health surveys

Marketing

Customer satisfation

Politics

Polls

Psychology

Attitudes, Emotions

Sociology

Social trends
68

PSYCHOLOGICAL TOPICS
IN SURVEY RESEARCH
Attitudes and opinions : e.g., older people's feelings about
extending
retirement age
Behaviours
Motivations
Emotions
Satisfaction

: e.g., extent to which households recycle


: e.g., reasons for attending university
: e.g., levels of stress and anxiety
: e.g., custom experiences

EXAMPLE SURVEY RESEARCH STUDIES


Environmental attitudes across cultures
Effect of working hours on family life, depression & stress related
health problems
Optimism & pessimism as predictors of change in health after
major life events
The effect of age on positive and negative affect
Are males satisfied with their body?
Ethnicity, social deprivation and psychological distress in
adolescents
Perceptions and attitudes towards people with mental health
problems
Attitudes toward farm animal welfare

MEASURING RESPONSES
Because statistics deals with data and data are the result of
measurement, thus, the need to discuss measurement of responses.
Open-ended questions illicit answers in narrative form, rather than
selecting from a choice of responses.
Closed questions, on the other hand, use a number of different formats to
illicit a response from a choice of responses.
The type of format will largely determine the kinds of statistical analyses
we can conduct on the data.
Different types of formats comprise different levels of measurement.

MEASURING RESPONSES:
LEVEL OF MEASUREMENT
Is the kind of scale used to measure a response.
Different statistical tests are required for different levels of measurement
or measuring scale.
Theoretically, a measuring scale can have one or more of the following
mathematical attributes: magnitude, an equal interval between adjacent
units, and an absolute zero point:
Magnitude - the magnitude of a mathematical term tells you how big that
term is. In math, this means how far away the math term is from zero.
Equal Interval Between Adjacent Units - means that there are equal amounts
of the variable being measured between adjacent units on the scale.
Absolute Zero Point may refer to absence, no value or lowest point
increase
in age from 21 to 22 would be
(depending on the variable)

An
the same as an increase in age from 60 to

MEASURING RESPONSES:
4 LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT
1. NOMINAL SCALE
A nominal scale is the lowest level of measurement and is most often
used with variables that are qualitative (categorical) in nature rather
than quantitative (continuous).
When a nominal scale is used, the variable is divided into its several
categories.
These categories comprise the units of the scale, and objects are
measured by determining the category to which they belong.
Measurement with a nominal scale really amounts to classifying the
objects and giving them the name (hence, nominal scale) of the
category to which they belong.

MEASURING RESPONSES:
4 LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT
It is important to note that because the units of a nominal scale are
categories, there is no magnitude relationship between the units of a
nominal scale. LES
That is, there is no quantitative relationship between the categories.
A fundamental property of nominal scales is that of equivalence.
All members of a given class are the same from the standpoint of the
classification variable.
An operation often performed in conjunction with nominal
measurement is that of counting the instances within each class.

MEASURING RESPONSES:
4 LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT
The frequency allows us to compare the number of items within each
category.
A nominal scale does not posses any of the mathematical attributes of
magnitude, equal interval, or absolute zero point. It merely allows
categorization of objects into mutually exclusive categories.

MEASURING RESPONSES:
4 LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT
2. ORDINAL SCALES
An ordinal scale represents the next higher level of measurement.
It possesses a relatively low level of the property of magnitude.
We rank-order the objects being measured according to whether they
posses more, less, or
Allows determination of whether A > B, A = B, or A < B.
Although this scale allows better than, equal to, or less than
comparisons, it says nothing about the magnitude of the difference
between adjacent units on the scale.

MEASURING RESPONSES:
4 LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT
The ordinal scale does not have the property of equal intervals
between adjacent units.
The scale does not tell the absolute level of the variable (e.g., they all
could be high or they all could be low). the same amount of the
variable being measured.

MEASURING RESPONSES:
4 LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT
3. INTERVAL SCALES
The interval scale represents a higher level of measurement than the
ordinal scale.
It possesses the properties of magnitude and equal intervals between
adjacent units but does not have an absolute zero point.
The interval scale possesses the properties of the ordinal scale and
has equal intervals between adjacent units.
The phrase equal intervals between adjacent units means that there
are equal amounts of the variable being measured between adjacent
units on the scale.

MEASURING RESPONSES:
4 LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT
Since with an interval scale there are equal amounts of the variable
between adjacent units on the scale, equal differences between the
numbers on the scale represent equal differences in the magnitude of the
variable.
It also follows logically that greater differences between the numbers on
the scale represent greater differences in the magnitude of the variable
being measured, and smaller differences between the numbers on the
scale represent smaller differences in the magnitude of the variable being
measured.
In addition to being able to determine whether A > B, A = B, or A < B, and
interval scale allows us to determine whether A B = C D, A B > C D,
or A B < C D.

MEASURING RESPONSES:
4 LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT
4. RATIO SCALES
The next, and highest, level of measurement is called a ratio scale.
It has all the properties of an interval scale and, in addition, has an
absolute zero point.
Without an absolute zero point it is not legitimate to compute ratios
with the scale readings.
A zero on the ratio scale represents the complete absence of
We cannot compute ratios with the interval scale. That is, we cannot say
for example that 20o Celsius is twice as hot as 10o Celsius.
However, on the ratio scale we can indicate ratios. For example, on the
Kelvin scale 20o is twice as hot as 10o.

Please indicate your views on Balkan Olives by scoring them on


Which of the following food items do you
a scale of 5 down to 1 (i.e. 5 = Excellent; = Poor) on each of the
tend to buy at least once per month?
criteria listed.
(Please tick)
Circle the appropriate score on each line.
Okra
Palm Oil
Milled Rice
Balkan Olives are:
Peppers Succulence
Prawns
Fresh tasting

5
4
3
Pasteurized
Milk
5
4
3

Free of skin
5
4
3
2
1
Order of
Brand
blemish
Preference
Good value
5
4
3
2
1
Please indicate
1
Rambo your views on Balkan Olives by ticking the appropriate
2

R.I.P.

Killalot

4 Succulent

D.O.A.

5 Freshness Bugdeath
Freedom from skin blemish
Value for money
Attractiveness of packaging

responses below:

Excellent

Very Good

Good

Fair

Poor

IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS
FOR SURVEY ITEMS
1. According to Czaja and Blair (1996), the first question should have these
characteristics:
a. Relevant to the Central Topic
b. Easy to Answer
c. Interesting
d. Answerable by most respondents
e. Close format

IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS
FOR SURVEY ITEMS
2. The first few questions should be ones that:
a. Subjects do not have to think about a great deal (no open-ended
questions)
b. Subjects are able to answer without saying I dont know
c. What subjects will think of are relevant to the topic of survey
3. Consider placing demographic information (e.g. age, vital statistics,
income, race, etc.) at the end of the questionnaire. People tend to be lazy,
sensitive.
a. Create questions with care and sensitivity if and when it is vital to
the study.

IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS
FOR SURVEY ITEMS
What is your age?
18 24
25 44
45 64
65 years and over

What is your income


level?
15,000 20,000
21,000 25,000
26,000 30,000
31,000 35,000
36,000 40,000
41,000 45,000
46,000 and over

IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS
FOR SURVEY ITEMS
4. Make sure your questions are not value laden. Do not word your
questions in ways that would make a positive (or negative) response
seem embarrassing or undesirable:
Version 1:
Do you believe doctors should be allowed to kill unborn
babies during the first trimester of pregnancy?
Version 2:
Do you believe doctors should be allowed to terminate a
pregnancy during the first trimester?

IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS
FOR SURVEY ITEMS
RESPONSE STYLES
Are tendencies to respond to questions or test items in specific ways,
regardless of the content (Cronbach, 1950; Rorer, 1965).
People differ in response styles, such as Willingness to Answer, position
preferences, across countries, nationalities, languages.
Unwillingness to answer is often a problem in survey research (e.g.
unsure, blank answers, take a guess, omit items, etc.).
Position Preference is another concern (safe answer: c, maybe, uncertain).
Manifest Content is the plain meaning of the words that actually appear
on the page (answerable by true false yes no).

IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS
FOR SURVEY ITEMS
RESPONSE STYLES
Questions needs to be pretested before actual data collection.
Before pretesting, read each question out loud to ensure correctness, clarity and easy to
understand.
Solicit any problems or difficulties that made a question hard to answer.
Modify any question/s that seemed difficult for the volunteers and pretest the new
questions until you are satisfied that they are reasonably easy to most people to
answer.
Pretesting can identify Context Effects. Sometimes the position of a question can
influence how the question is interpreted. This is likely to happen when two questions
are related.
Sometimes it helps to separate related items by Buffer Items. These are questions
unrelated to either of the related questions.

COLLECTING SURVEY DATA


Can take many forms:
Written questionnaires
Mail survey
Telephone surveys
Computer and Internet surveys
Interviews
Focus group

There are pros and cons for each method.

COLLECTING SURVEY DATA


1. Self-Administered Questionnaires
If you are using a written questionnaire, be sure the instructions are
simple and clear. If you are handing out your questionnaire in person,
consider the possibility of reactivity.
2. Mail Survey
If you are sending a questionnaire in mail, be sure to include a polite
and professional cover letter. Make sure your questionnaire and return
procedures subjects anonymity.

COLLECTING SURVEY DATA


3. Computer and Internet Surveys
If you have programming knowledge, consider building a computerbased survey. Scoring is faster and efficient as well as collecting
information.
4. Telephone Surveys
At the present time, telephone surveys are the most widely used
method for conducting survey research. This meant that people with
unlisted numbers were not called. The problem that was created was
similar to the problem of nonrespondents in a mail survey-people who
listed their phone numbers might be different in some ways than
people whose numbers were unlisted.

COLLECTING SURVEY DATA


5. Interview
One of the best way to gather high-quality survey data is to conduct
face to face interviews, but in terms of timed and money, this is the
most expensive method for collecting survey data. Interviewers must be
thoroughly trained in interviewing skills and techniques.
6. Focus Groups
Is another face-to-face technique used less often for collecting data.
Usually small groups of people with similar characteristics who are
brought together by an interviewer, called facilitator who guides group
discussion of specific issues.

EVALUATING SURVEYS AND


SURVEY DATA
Reliability
Is the extent to which the survey is consistent and repeatable. There are
different kinds of reliability, and a survey that is reliable will have the
following three qualities:
Responses to similar questions in the survey should be consistent;
The survey should generate very similar responses across different surveygivers;
The survey should generate very similar responses if it is given to the same
person more than once.

EVALUATING SURVEYS AND


SURVEY DATA
Validity
Refers to the extent to which a survey actually measures the intended topic.
Does the survey measure what you want it to measure?
Does performance on the survey predict actual behavior?
Does it give the same results as other surveys designed to measure
similar topics?
Do the individual survey items fairly capture all the important aspects of
the topic?
Pretesting the questionnaire helps ensure that survey-takers are answering
the questions in the way you intended, increasing its validity.

EVALUATING SURVEYS AND


SURVEY DATA
SAMPLING
Regardless of how you conduct your survey, one of the most critical
issues is sampling, deciding who the subjects will be and then selecting
them.
The Population consists of all people, animals, or objects that have at
least one characteristic in common (e.g. undergraduates, nursing home
residents, jelly beans, college students, middle child, etc.)
A Sample of Subjects is a group that is a subset of the population of
interest. Data collected from samples can be used to draw inferences
about a population without examining all its members.

EVALUATING SURVEYS AND


SURVEY DATA
1. PROBABILITY SAMPLING
a. Simple Random Sampling
The most basic form of probability sampling is the simple random
sample, in which a portion of the whole population is selected in
unbiased way.
b. Systematic Random Sampling
An elegant variation of random sampling occurs in systematic
random sampling. In cases, all members of a population are known
and can be listed in an unbiased way, a researcher may select every
nth person from the population.

EVALUATING SURVEYS AND


SURVEY DATA
1. PROBABILITY SAMPLING
c. Stratified Random Sampling

A stratified random sample is obtained by randomly sampling from


people in such subgroup in the same proportions as they exist in
the population..
d. Cluster Sampling

When the population of interest is very large, it is often too costly


or impractical to randomly select subjects one by one. In such
cases, researchers may use another form of probability sampling
called cluster sampling.

EVALUATING SURVEYS AND


SURVEY DATA
2. NONPROBABILITY SAMPLING
Even though random selection of subjects is accepted as a
cornerstone of good survey research, in reality many surveys are
based on nonprobability samples.
As the name implies, in nonprobability sampling, the subjects are not
chosen at random.

EVALUATING SURVEYS AND


SURVEY DATA
2. NONPROBABILITY SAMPLING
a. Quota Sampling
In quota sampling, researchers select samples through
predetermined quotas that are intended to reflect the make up
population. Samples can reflect the proportions of important
subgroups, but the individuals are not selected at random.
b. Convenience Sampling
Convenience Sampling is obtained by using any groups who
happen to be available.

EVALUATING SURVEYS AND


SURVEY DATA
2. NONPROBABILITY SAMPLING
c. Purposive Sampling
When nonrandom samples are selected because the individuals
reflect a specific purpose of the study.
d. Snowball Sampling
Another form of nonprobability sampling, a researcher locates one
or a few people who fit the sample criterion and asks these people
to locate or lead them to additional individuals.

EVALUATING SURVEYS AND


SURVEY DATA
Reporting Samples
The way a sample is chosen influences what can be concluded
from the results. A research report must explain the type of
sample used and how subjects were recruited so that the
results can be interpreted properly.

DIMENSIONS OF RESEARCH
Antecedent Manipulation
Treatments
Independent variable (IV)

Imposition of Units
Behavioral measures
Dependent variable (DV)

CORRELATIONAL AND
QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS

CORRELATIONAL DESIGNS
The investigator focuses attention on two or more variables to
determine whether they are related
When two things are correlated, changes in one are associated
with changes in another.
Antecedents are preexisting
Degree of imposition of units high
Tend to be higher in external validity
Values is between -1.00 and + 1.00. The sign (-,+) tells us the
positive or negative direction of the relationship.

CORRELATIONAL DESIGNS
STEPS:
1. Selected traits or behaviors of interest are measured (first).
2. Numbers (e.g. scores, ratings, etc.) are recorded that represent the
measured variables.
3. The degree of relationship or correlation, between the numbers is
determined through statistical procedures.

EXAMPLE:
CORRELATIONAL DESIGN
Study / Experiment:
To determine whether obesity and high blood pressure are related in adults
older than 30 years,
The researcher might measure the fat level and blood pressure of
individuals in a sample of adults older than 30.
The researcher would then analyze the results to see whether a relationship
exists between these variables; that is,
Do individuals with low fat levels also have low blood pressure?
Do individuals with moderate fat levels have moderate blood pressure?
Do individuals with high fat levels have high blood pressure?

CORRELATIONAL DESIGNS

Imposition of Units

High

Low/
High

Medium

Low

Low

Medium

High

Antecedent Manipulation

QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS
Can seem like an experiment, but subjects are not
randomly
assigned to treatment conditions.
Antecedent control varies
Degree of imposition of units - high
Tend to be higher in external validity

QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS

Imposition of Units

High

Low /
High

Meduim /
High

Low

Medium

Medium

Low

High

Antecedent Manipulation

EXAMPLE OF A QUASIEXPERIMENT
Lighting condition

: Fluorescent vs Incandescent

Subjects
: From company A (fluorescent lights) or B
(incandescent)
Performance measure : productivity
Can cause-effect be established with confidence?

PEARSON PRODUCT MOMENT


CORRELATION COEFFICIENT (R )
Most common procedure for calculating simple correlationsrelationship between pairs of scores for each subject.
Three outcomes are possible:
Positive relationship
Negative relationship
No relationship

HYPOTHETICAL RELATIONSHIPS
B.

Negative r = -.72

Positive r = +.69

Variable Y

Size of Vocabulary and Length of


Daily TV Viewing.
a) Negative (inverse) relationship
b) Positive (direct) relationship
correlation r = -.02
C. No
c) No
relationship
Variable
X strong
Variable X
Variable Y

Variable Y

A.

Variable X

SCATTERPLOTS
Visual representations of the scores belonging to each subject in a
study.
Each dot = two scores (x,y) from one subject.
One score places the dot along the horizontal axis (x) and the other
score places it along the vertical (y) axis.
Regression Lines (of best fit) represent the mathematical equation
that best represents the relationship between the two measured
scores.
Positive Correlation - when the computed value of r is positive.
Negative Correlation - when computed value of r is negative.

FOUR POSSIBLE CAUSAL


DIRECTIONS OF A CORRELATION
Given a strong positive relationship between childhood aggressiveness and
watching violent TV (r = +.70).
1) Watching violent TV aggressiveness
2) Aggressiveness watching violent TV
3) Aggressiveness watching violent TV
4) Both are caused by a third variable (unknown or not measured, e.g.,
parental supervision)
1) Watching more violent television causes a child to have higher levels of
aggression
2) Higher levels of aggressiveness cause a child to watch more violent television
3) Higher levels of aggressiveness cause a child to watch more violent television,
and, at the same time, watching more violent television causes a child to have
higher levels of aggression.

A social psychologist seeks to determine the relationship between a


paper-and-pencil measure of prejudice and peoples attitudes toward
racial profiling as a crime deterrent.
At the beginning of the semester, students in a general psychology
class are asked to complete six different questionnaires.
Among the questionnaires is a measure of prejudice. Later in the
semester, students are invited to take part in an experiment
examining attitudes about criminal behavior and law enforcement
tactics.
As part of the experiment, students complete a questionnaire asking
about attitudes toward racial profiling as a crime deterrent.
The researcher wishes to find out if scores on the prejudice measure
obtained earlier will predict peoples attitudes about racial profiling.
Higher scores on the prejudice measure indicate greater prejudice,
and higher scores on the profiling scale indicate greater support for
racial profiling.

Scores on both measures are obtained for 22 students as follows:

1. Draw a scatterplot showing the relationship between these two


measures.
2. Inspect the scatterplot and comment on the presence or absence of a
linear trend in the data.
3. Calculate a correlation coefficient for these data and comment on the
direction and strength of the relationship.
4. On the basis of the correlational analysis, the researcher concludes that
prejudicial thinking causes people to support racial profiling by law
enforcement agencies.
***Comment on this conclusion based on what you know about the
nature of correlational evidence

PREJUDICE PROFILING
19
7
15
6
22
9
12
6
9
4
19
7
16
8
21
9
24
5
13
5
10
7
12
4
17
8
23
9
19
10
23
10
18
5
11
6
10
4
19
8
24
8
22
7

r=
0.640658

LINEAR CORRELATIONS
Correlations that follow a line

CHARACTERISTICS OF A
RELATIONSHIP
A correlation is a numerical value that describes and measures three
characteristics of the relationship between X and Y. These three
characteristics are as follows:
1. The Direction of the Relationship. The sign of the correlation, positive or
negative, describes the direction of the relationship.
a. In a Positive Correlation, the two variables tend to change in the
same direction: As the value of the X variable increases from one
individual to another, the Y variable also tends to increase; when the
X variable decreases, the Y variable also decreases.
b. In a Negative Correlation, the two variables tend to go in opposite
directions. As the X variable increases, the Y variable decreases.
That is, it is an inverse relationship.

CHARACTERISTICS OF A
RELATIONSHIP
2. The Form of the Relationship. In the preceding coffee and beer
examples, the relationships tend to have a linear form; that is, the
points in the scatter plot tend to cluster around a straight line. We have
drawn a line through the middle of the data points in each figure to help
show the relationship. The most common use of correlation is to
measure straight-line relationships. However, other forms of
relationships do exist and there are special correlations used to measure
them.

CHARACTERISTICS OF A
RELATIONSHIP
3. The Strength or Consistency of the Relationship. For a linear
relationship, for example, the data points could fit perfectly on a
straight line. Every time X increases by one point, the value of Y also
changes by a consistent and predictable amount.

TEMPERATU
RE
SALES
14.2
$215
16.4
$325
11.9
$185
15.2
$332
18.5
$406
22.1
$522
19.4
$412
25.1
$614
23.4
$544
18.1
$421
22.6
$445
17.2
$408

ICE CREAM SALES VS.


TEMPERATURE
r = 0.9575

We can easily see


that warmer
weather leads to
more sales, the
relationship is good
but not perfect.

CORRELATION IS NOT GOOD


AT CURVES
Our Ice Cream Example:
There has been a heat wave!
It gets so hot that people aren't going
near the shop, and sales start
dropping.
1. The correlation value is now 0:
"No Correlation
2. But we can see the data does
have a correlation: it follows a
nice curve that reaches a peak
around 25 C.
3. The linear correlation calculation
is not "smart" enough to see this

HOW TO CALCULATE
(PEARSON'S CORRELATION)
Let us recall the two sets of data "x" and "y" (in our case Temperature is x
and Ice Cream Sales is y):
Step 1: Find the mean of x, and the mean of y
Step 2: Subtract the mean of x from every x value (call them "a"), do the
same
for y (call them "b")
Step 3: Calculate: a b, a2 and b2 for every value
Step 4: Sum up a b, sum up a2 and sum up b2
Step 5: Divide the sum of a b by the square root of [(sum of a2) (sum of
b2)]

AS A FORMULA:

Where:
is Sigma, the symbol for "sum up"

is each x-value minus the mean of x (called "a" above)

is each y-value minus the mean of y (called "b" above)

STUDE
NT

AGE

STUDE
NT

AGE

17

14

16

17

15

16

16

16

19

ITE
M

16

17

19

HANKY

15

18

17

CP

19

19

17

NECKLACE

17

20

17

RING

19

21

18

ID LACE

19

22

18

WATCH

10

15

23

17

11

15

24

17

12

18

25

17

13

19

26

17

CORRELATION
Correlation coefficients can be strongly affected by several
features of the data:
1. No Linear Trend (nonlinear trend)
Relationships between some psychological variables,
such as the relationship between test anxiety and
test performance, do not fit a linear model; instead,
their relationship appears curvilinear like an inverted
U

CORRELATION

2. Range Truncation
An artificial restriction of the range of values of X or Y.
In statistics, truncation results in values that are limited
above or below, resulting in a truncated sample
** Correlation between childrens age and shoe size (4-16):
. As children get older, their shoe size increases. (r = +.67)
. What if focus was limited to 8 and 9 yrs. Old children.
. There will be no strong positive trend. Area on the box looks more like

CORRELATION
3. Outliers
Extreme scores
an outlier is an observation point that is distant from other
observations
An outlier may be due to variability in the measurement or it
may indicate experimental error; the latter are sometimes
excluded from the data set
Presence may dramatically reduce the size of the correlation
coefficient because it disturbs the general linear trend of the
data.

Causes of Outliers:
Outliers can have many anomalous causes.
A physical apparatus for taking measurements may have
suffered a transient malfunction.
There may have been an error in data transmission or
transcription.
Due to changes in system behaviour, fraudulent behaviour,
human error, instrument error or simply through natural
deviations in populations.
A sample may have been contaminated with elements from
outside the population being examined.
Alternatively, an outlier could be the result of a flaw in the
assumed theory, calling for further investigation by the
researcher.
Additionally, the pathological appearance of outliers of a certain

Correlation does not imply causation


Even though a relationship exists between two measures, we cannot say that
one causes the other, even when such a statement appears reasonable
Ex. Link between smoking and many serious health problems.
Why? : because the causal direction between two variables cannot be
determined by simple correlation.

Bidirectional Causation
The behaviors could affect each other (TV violence and Aggressive Behavior)

CORRELATION
Coefficient Determination (r)
Estimates the amount of variability in scores on one variable
that can be explained by the other variable.
An estimate of the strength of the relationship between them.
E.g., if r = .56, then r 2 = .31.
31% of the variability in scores on variable X can be accounted
for by variable Y.
An r 2 .25 (Cohen, 1988) can be considered a strong
association.

LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS


Given the score on one variable you can predict the score
on the other if you know:
The value of r
Average scores of X and Y (the means)
Standard deviation (S) of X and Y
Y = Y + r [Sy / Sx] (X
X)

MULTIPLE REGRESSION

Used to predict the score on one behavior from the


scores on others included in the analysis.

The regression equation provides beta weights for each


predictor (indicating their importance)

Beta weights can simply be reported or used in an


advanced correlational analysis to construct causal
sequences for the behaviors

Determine the weights of each predictor (x)

MULTIPLE CORRELATION

Intercorrelations among 3 or more behaviors (R)

Can not explain why the 3 measures are related


but it may suggest that a third variable is
important.

Influence of one variable is held constant while


measuring the correlation between the other
two partial correlation

Multiple Correlation

=>

Multiple Regression Analysis

(to predict score on one behavior


from scores on the others)

REGRESSION AND CORRELATION


Both involve the relationship between 2 variables.
Both utilize the same set of basic data: paired scores from the same
subjects.
Correlation is concerned with the magnitude and direction of the
relationship.
Regression focuses on using the relationship for prediction.
Prediction is quite easy when the relationship is perfect.
Regression is a topic that considers using the relationship between two
or
more variables for prediction.
A regression line is a best fitting line used for prediction.

LINEAR REGRESSION
Y = Y + r [Sy / Sx] (X
X)

Assume that in adult subjects, TV viewing


time and vocabulary scores are strongly
Y = predicted value for Y
correlated, and the correlation is negative
(r = -.64). The mean for TV viewing time
Y = mean score of Y
is 20 hours, and the standard deviation is
r
= correlation
4. The mean score for the vocabulary test
Sy
= standard deviation of y is 70, and the standard deviation is 5.

Sx = standard deviation of x
X = value of X
X = mean score of X

Calculate the estimated score on the


vocabulary test for an adult who watches
24 hours of TV.

MULTIPLE CORRELATION AND


MULTIPLE REGRESSION
Approach : Factor Analysis

I WATCH TELEVISION.
Factor 1 : Pass Time
Factor 2 : Entertainment
Factor 3 : Information
Factor 4 : Escape
Factor 5 : Relaxation
Factor 6 : Status Enhancement
** 2 5 questions per category

FACTOR ANALYSIS
Common correlational procedure used when individuals are measured on a large number
of items.
FA allows to see the degree of relationship among many traits or behaviors at the same
time. (*computers, for statistical data analysis)
Commonly used in personality research.
Warm/cold, shy/sociable, dominant/submissive
Sociability, agreeableness, conscientiousness, emotionality, culture

Can identify important dimensions underlying a large number of responses.


27 motivational statements has been synthesized from results of past research on why people
like to watch TV.
Numbers reported in the FA represent factor loadings
Factor loadings are statistical estimates of how well an item correlates with each of the factors
(-1.00 to +1.00).

FACTOR ANALYSIS
FA determines the factors and sorts items according to their groupings in
the different factors, allowing the researcher to identify items belonging in
each factor.
Items with high factor loadings are grouped together, showing that
subjects scores on these items are all strongly interrelated.
FA also sorts the factors in order of importance: Factor 1 is the most
important because it accounted for more variation in all of the subjects
scores.
Another important use, data reduction. When a researcher create a new
questionnaire or scale, they often begin by testing man more items than
what will be used (actual). FA helps determine which items seem to be
measuring similar qualities, thus, eliminating redundant items.

MULTIPLE CORRELATION
Combined correlation (R) between Years of Education and Motivation with a
Salespersons Annual Sales
Predict/explain a persons current compensation based on a number of
employee characteristics
Predict/explain how much money a salesperson will bring in based on
education and score on motivation assessment scale
Serve as guide in hiring people
Serve as guide in promoting people

MULTIPLE REGRESSION
When more than 2 related behaviors are correlated.
Can be used to predict the score on one behavior from scores on the
others.
Y = b1 X1 + b2 X2 + a
ORY = a + b1 X1 + b2 X2
There were 4 applicants with information below. What would be the best
prediction of how much sales (money) can a person bring in on an annual
basis.
EDUCATION
MOTIVATION
(YRS)

SCORE

10

30

13

49

11

55

15

25

BACKGROUND OF THE PROBLEM


The company wants to develop a new hiring process that will help them identify job
applicants who will be the most productive salesperson.
1. 5 Currently employed salesperson
2. Information collected:
Highest year of school completed
Motivation as measured by Motivation Scale
Dollars in Sales last year

3. Calculated correlations:
Highest year of school completed with Motivation
Highest Year of School Completed with Dollars in Sales
Motivation with Dollars in Sales

CORRELATIONS
1. Correlation between Highest Year of School and Motivation
(r X1, X2) = 0.968
2. Correlation between Highest Year of School and Annual Sales
(r Y, X1) = 0.880
3. Correlation between Motivation and Annual Sales
(r Y, X2) = 0.772

R = .9360

MULTIPLE REGRESSION
FORMULA
Y

= b 1 X1 + b 2 X2 + a

ORY

= a + b1 X1 + b2 X2

Y = predicted value of Y (dependent variable)


b1 = coefficient of the first predictor variable
X1 = first predictor variable
b2 = coefficient of the second predictor variable
X2 = second predictor variable
a

= prediction constant

Correlation between Highest Year of School


and Motivation :
(r X1, X2) = 0.968
Correlation between Highest Year of School
and Annual Sales :
(r Y, X1) = 0.880
Correlation between Motivation and Annual
Sales : (r Y, X2) = 0.772

Note that X1 and X2 has no assigned values. These are the places
where you indicate the values you are going to use to make a
prediction. In this case, X1 = 13 and X2 = 49.

PREDICTION
Job Applicant:
13 years of education
With 49 motivation
score (motivation scale)

Best Prediction of
Earning:
$ 685,881.74

CAUSAL MODELING

Advanced correlational techniques

Provides information about the direction of


and effect sequences among variables.

Tools for Causal Modeling:

1. Path Analysis

2. Cross-Lagged Panel Designs

the cause
XY
YX
X Y
X2 X Y

FOUR POSSIBLE CAUSAL


DIRECTIONS OF A CORRELATION
more violent
television causes a
Given a strong positive relationship between Watching
childhood
aggressiveness
child to have higher levels of aggression
and watching violent TV (r = +.70).
levels of aggressiveness cause a child
1) Watching violent TV aggressivenessHigher
to watch more violent television
2) Aggressiveness watching violent TVHigher levels of aggressiveness cause a child
watch more violent television, and, at the
3) Aggressiveness watching violentto
TV
same time, watching more violent television
4) Both are caused by a third variable causes a child to have higher levels of
aggression.
(unknown or not measured, e.g., parental supervision)

XY
YX
X Y

X1 : Years of
PATH ANALYSIS
Education
X2 : Motivation
Path Analysis is one sophisticated statistical technique that
Score
can be used with correlational data (Baron & Kenny, 1986;
Holmbeck, 1997).

Creates models of possible causal sequences when several


related behaviors are measured (path A, path B, path C)
Beta weights from multiple regression analysis are used to
evaluate the direction of cause and effect from correlated
variables, thus, Path Models.
Internal validity is low (correlational data), consequently
causal statements can not be made.

PATH ANALYSIS
Path analysis involves the identification of mediator variables and
moderator variables.
A mediator variable is a variable that is used to explain the correlation
between two variables.
A moderator variable is a variable that affects the direction or strength of
the correlation between two variables.

EXAMPLE: PATH ANALYSIS


Study of the Effects of Poverty on Childrens Psychological Adjustment
(Evans, Gonnella, Marcynyszyn, Gentile, & Salpekar, 2005)
Investigators observed a correlation between their measures of poverty and
psychological distress: the greater the poverty, the greater the distress among
children (Path A)
They also proposed a mediating variable, chaos, to account for this relationship.
They theorized that chaotic living conditions characterized by unpredictability,
confusion, lack of structure, noise, overcrowding, and poor-quality housing can
explain the relationship between poverty and childrens psychological distress
(Path B & C)

EXAMPLE: PATH ANALYSIS


CHAOS

TH
A
P

POVERTY

PA
TH

PATH A

PSYCHOLOGIC
AL DISTRESS

EXAMPLE: PATH ANALYSIS


Consistent with their predictions, the results of their study indicated that
greater poverty was associated with greater chaos in the home (Path B).
Greater chaos was associated with greater psychological distress (Path C).

** The final step in path analysis is to show that when the correlations between
Paths B and C are taken into account using a statistical procedure, the
correlation observed initially for path a (between poverty and distress) becomes
zero.
This is exactly what Evans and his colleagues found. Their path analysis
allowed them to say that the relationship between poverty and childrens
distress can be explained by, or is mediated by, the degree of chaos in the
home.

EXAMPLE: PATH ANALYSIS


Potential Moderating Variables
Gender (boys and girls)
Population density (urban vs. rural)
Strength of resilience in childrens personality (high vs. low
resilience)
Clearly, Path Analysis is another Descriptive Method, and it
generates important information for prediction and can generate
experimental hypothesis.

CROSS-LAGGED PANEL DESIGN

Two variables measured at two times (time lag)

Multiple regression analyses, in which the time two measures are


regressed on the time one measures, have become the standard
method of analyzing the design.

There is minimal focus on methods to rule out third-variable causation


(bidirectional)

Several analysts have argued that two waves are insufficient to obtain
much information about how processes unfold over time.

CROSS-LAGGED PANEL DESIGN


Age 3

Age 8

Time watching
TV

r = .20

r = .07

Size of
Vocabulary

r = .14

Time watching
TV

r = -.59

r = .41

r = .05

Size of
Vocabulary

Hypothetical Cross-Lagged Panel design

SUMMARY OF CORRELATION AND


CORRELATION-BASED RESEARCH DESIGN
TYPE

PURPOSE

Correlation

Determines degree of relationship between two variables (X &


Y)

Multiple Correlation

Determines degree of relationship between three or more


variables (X1, X2 & Y)

Linear Regression Analysis

Uses regression equation to predict scores on one variable


from scores on a second correlated variable

Multiple Regression Analysis

Uses regression equation to predict scores on one variable


from scores on sets of other variable

Factor Analysis

Determines subsets of correlated variables within a larger set


of variables

Path Analysis

Uses beta weights from multiple regression analysis to


generate possible direction of cause and effect from correlated
variables

Cross-Lagged Panel Design

Measures the same pair of variables at two different


points in time; looks at patterns of correlations across time

QUASI EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS


Can seem like a real experiment, but they lack one or more of its
essential elements, such as manipulation of antecedents or
random assignment to treatment conditions.
Can be used to explore the effects of different treatments on
preexisting groups of subjects or to investigate the same kinds of
naturally occurring events, characteristics, and behaviors that we
measure in correlational studies. Yet, they have different goals:
In correlational studies, we are looking for relationships or
associations between variables.
In quasi-experiments, we are comparing different groups of
subjects looking for differences between them, or we are
looking for changes over time in the same group of subjects.

QUASI EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS


Researchers who want to compare people (group A) exposed to a
naturally occurring event (e.g. enrollment, exams, graduation,
rush hour) with a comparison group (group B usually
unexposed) often use quasi-experiment, also called natural
experiment.

QUASI EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS:


EXAMPLE
Ganzel and colleagues investigated on emotional reactivity after
the traumatic World Trade Center bombing in New York City on Sept.
11, 2001. They found that:
Even after 3 years had
passed, people who had
been within 1.5 miles from
the buildings when they
collapsed
were
more
reactive when exposed to
pictures of fearful faces

THAN

Were people who were at


least 200 miles away at the
time of the terrorist attacks.

QUASI EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS


In the simplest quasi-experiments, Quasi-Treatment Group are
formed based on the particular event, characteristic or behavior
whose influence we want to investigate.
Low in internal validity
One may never know for certain what causes the effects one
observes, unlike true experiments
Gender differences in school-age childrens sleep patterns:
Boys vs Girls
Can you really be sure that sleep patterns are caused by their gender?
Other influences: daytime activity, stress level, hormones, puberty, etc.

EX POST FACTO STUDIES


Is the systematic examination of the effects of subject variables
(characteristics) without manipulation.
The researcher forms treatment groups by selecting subjects on
the basis of differences that already exist.
Ex post facto means, after the fact.
The researcher capitalizes on changes in the antecedent
conditions that occurred before the study, thus, a study that looks
a great deal like an experiment
antecedent conditions are not manipulated)
No direct control over who belongs to each of the treatment
groups of study

EX POST FACTO STUDIES


A students father died last year, she is then placed in a group of subjects
who have experienced the loss of a parent.
The condition is pre-existing (no manipulation from researcher)
Subjects come into an ex post facto Study with attributes that already
differ from one subject to another.
The differences are used as the basis for separating them into groups
(e.g. introverts extroverts) then the researcher looks for differences in
behavior that are related to group membership.
Age and gender are commonly researched subject variables.

EX POST FACTO STUDIES


Like the correlational study, it deals with things as they occur.
There is no manipulation of the conditions that interest the researcher.
Allows the researcher to zero in on those occurrences in a more
systematic way.
Instead of studying the whole range of people along a particular dimension
(e.g. from extremely introverted to extremely extrovert), the focus can be
on a carefully chosen subset.
Often, the researcher studies the extremes, the subject who ranked
highest and lowest on the dimension of interest.
Systematically forming groups based on differences in pre-existing
characteristics is a critical feature of this study.

EX POST FACTO STUDIES


Experimenters (True Experiment) typically use random assignment of
subjects to create treatment groups in which any pre-existing
differences in people are distributed evenly across all the treatment
groups.
In an ex post facto study, those pre-existing differences become the
manipulation and measuring the effects they produce is the objective of
the research.

NONEQUIVALENT GROUPS
A manipulation is carried out but subjects are not randomly assigned
to groups
Internal validity can be increased by controlling extraneous variables
after careful consideration of potential confounds.
Ex.
Comparing 8-year-old children and 10-year-old children
People with an eating disorder and those with no disorder
Comparing children from a single-parent home and those from a
two-parent home.

NONEQUIVALENT GROUPS
Because this type of
research compares
preexisting
groups, the researcher
cannot control the
assignment of
participants to groups and
cannot
ensure equivalent groups.

LONGITUDINAL DESIGNS
Measure the behavior of the same group of subjects across time.
A form of within-subject design
the same sample of respondents is surveyed more than once
Important for studying growth and development and aging
Because of the correlational nature of survey data, it is difficult to identify
the causes of individuals changes over time.
As people drop out of the study over time (attrition), the final sample may
no longer be comparable to the original sample or represent the
population.
Time consuming and hard to conduct

LONGITUDINAL DESIGNS
1. Changes in life satisfaction before and after divorce in an 18-year
longitudinal study of German households that began in 1984
(Lucas, 2005)
2. Changes in attitudes and behaviors related to eating during the
transitions from college to early adulthood and from early
adulthood to middle years (Heatherton, Mahamedi, Striepe, Field,
& Keel, 1997; Keel, Baxter, Heatherton, & Joiner, 2007).
3. Behavioral changes in firstborn children after the birth of a
second child (Stewart, Mobley, Van Tuyl, Salvador, 1987).
1 month before birth; 1,4,8,12 months after the birth.

CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES
Investigates changes across time by comparing groups of subjects
already at different stages at a single point in time.
Typically requires more subjects than the longitudinal study.
Subjects may differ in ways other than those being studied (similar
to Ex post facto).

CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES
1. Life satisfaction after divorce.
Comparison could have been based between divorced and undivorced
subjects
Comparison could have been based between those planning to divorce and
divorced subjects

2. Attitude and behavior related to eating.


Comparison with college, adulthood and early adulthood, middle years
students

3. Behavioral changes in firstborn children.


Comparison with a family expecting a 2nd child in a month, family 1/ 2nd child
who is a month old, another whose child is 4 months, 8 months, 12 months

PRETEST/POSTTEST DESIGN
Investigates the effects of a
treatment by comparing
behavior before and after the
treatment.
Practice effects (pretest
sensitization)
Outside influences cannot be
ruled out
Low internal validity

FORMULATING HYPOTHESIS
Is the thesis, or main idea of an experiment.
It is a statement about a predicted relationship between at least two
variables (speculation, guess, hunch).
Some nonexperimental designs are used to demonstrate relationships
between sets of behaviors, but they may not be used to infer a causeand-effect relationship between them (true experiments).
Nonexperimental hypothesis is a statement of predictions of how events,
traits, or behaviors might be related, not a statement on cause-andeffect.
Each experimental hypothesis is a tentative explanation of an event or
behavior

RESEARCH ETHICS
1. The APA Guidelines
8. Research and Publication
8.01 Institutional Approval
8.02 Informed Consent to
Research
8.03 Informed Consent for
Recording Voices and Images in
Research
8.04 Client/Patient, Student, and
Subordinate Research Participants
8.05 Dispensing With Informed
Consent for Research
8.06 Offering Inducements for

8.07 Deception in Research


8.08 Debriefing
8.09 Humane Care and Use of
Animals in Research
8.10 Reporting Research Results
8.11 Plagiarism
8.12 Publication Credit
8.13 Duplicate Publication of
Data
8.14 Sharing Research Data for
Verification
8.15 Reviewers

RESEARCH ETHICS
2. Fraud in Science
Researchers publishing false data.
Peer review is an important part of the reporting process. It
ensures merit of submission, identifies problems and suggests
recommendations for improvements.
The reviewers and the editor are the first line of defense against
data falsification.
Replication is the second line of defense. Being able to replicate
a research or study is an indication that it is truthful.

RESEARCH ETHICS
3. Plagiarism
Is a common kind of fraud committed unintentionally,
intentionally and carelessly.
We must be careful in the way we draw on the work of others in
our presentations.
To plagiarize means to represent some elses ideas, words or
written work as your own.
It is not merely borrowing facts and figures, it includes using it
without proper credit.

RESEARCH ETHICS
4. Ethical Reports
Ethical Principles of Psychologists and Code of Conduct provides
further guidance concerning ethics and research reports.
Section 8.12:
Psychologists take responsibility and credit, including authorship
credit, only for work they have actually performed or to which
they have substantially contributed.

EXPERIMENTAL METHOD
The Basics of Experimentation
1. Independent Variable (IV)
Is the dimension that experimenter intentionally manipulates.
It is the antecedent the experimenter chooses to vary.
This variable is independent in the sense that its values are
created by the experimenter and are not affected by anything else
that happens in the experiment.
E.g. Lightning (bright or dim), noise levels (loud or soft); difficulty
(easy, hard), meaningfulness (nonsense syllables vs real words);
anxious vs unanxous, happy vs sad, succeeding vs failing.

EXPERIMENTAL METHOD
2. Dependent Variable
Is the particular behavior we expect to change because of our
experimental treatment.
It is the outcome we are trying to explain.
In an experiment, we are testing effects of IV on the DV. Because we
manipulate the IV and measure its effects on the DV, dependent
variables are sometimes called dependent measures.

EXPERIMENTAL METHOD
Independent Variable
Treatments
Manipulations
Interventions
Conditions

Dependent Variable
Measures
Effects
Outcomes
Results

EXPERIMENTAL METHOD
The Problem
1. Solvable Problem
Is one that posses a question that can be answered with the use
of our normal capacities.
2. Unsolvable Problem
Raises a question that is unanswerable.
Often concern supernatural phenomena or questions about ultimate
causes (e.g. what caused the universe to exist studies in religion and
classical philosophy)

SOLVABLE PROBLEM
1. The Proposed Solution is Testable.
Not all questions can be answered by science.
A problem can qualify for scientific study only if it is solvable.
A problem is solvable if it can be empirically answered in a yes
or no fashion.
A problem is solvable if , and only if, one can empirically test its
tentative solution (hypothesis).

SOLVABLE PROBLEM
2. The Proposed Solution is Relevant to the Problem.
A hypothesis that is relevant to a problem is one that can solve the
problem if it is true.
What is a testable hypothesis?
A hypothesis is testable if, and only if, it is possible to determine that
it is either true or false.

Knowledge is expressed in the form of propositions.


e.g. external phenomena such as location of stars, bird soaring,
painting are not knowledge. Feeling pain in your stomach is not
knowledge.
Statements about events and objects are candidates for knowledge.

SOLVABLE PROBLEM
2. The Proposed Solution is Relevant to the Problem.

Knowledge is expressed in the form of propositions.


I have stomach pain and he has stomach pain may be
statements of knowledge.

THE HYPOTHESIS

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN
EXPERIMENTAL HYPOTHESIS
1. Synthetic Statements
Are those that can be either true or false.
Terminology was borrowed from the filed of Logic, neither true of false, yet to
be proven.
Each experiment should be a synthetic statement so that there can be some
chance it is true and some chance it is false.
An analytic statement is one that is always true (e.g. I am pregnant, weight of
dieters will fluctuate)
Contradictory statements are statements with elements that oppose each other
(false statements).
I have a brother and I do not have a brother;

If. then form/statements (if 1st born children will be followed by another
birth, then there will changes in behavior)

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN
EXPERIMENTAL HYPOTHESIS
2. Testable Statements
The means for manipulating antecedent conditions and measuring the
resulting behavior must exist.
If dogs display muscle twitches and vocalizations during sleep, then they
must be dreaming
manipulation of a number of antecedents to encourage sleep (warm vs.
room temperature food, milk vs. water, active play vs. relaxed activity
during the day, etc.)
Some might sleep more than others
Some might bark and twitch more that others while asleep
How do we know they are dreaming? Ask them?

Interesting subject of study and yet untestable hypothesis.

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN
EXPERIMENTAL HYPOTHESIS
3. Falsifiable Statements
Disprovable by the research findings.
Hypothesis need to be worded so that failures to find the
predicted effect must be considered evidence that the
hypothesis is indeed false.
If you read this book carefully enough, then you will be able
to designs a good experiment
Subjects did not read the book carefully enough.

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN
EXPERIMENTAL HYPOTHESIS
4. Parsimonious Statements
Parsimony simplest explanation is preferred.
A simple hypothesis is preferred over one that requires many
supporting assumptions.
(+) If you look at an appealing photograph, then your pupils will
dilate
() If you look at an appealing photograph, then your pupils will
dilate if it is a warm Saturday in June.

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN
EXPERIMENTAL HYPOTHESIS
5. Fruitful Statements
It leads to new studies.
It is often difficult to know in advance which hypotheses will be the
most fruitful.
Classical Conditioning (fear of otherwise neutral objects could be
acquired through learning):
If a child is repeatedly exposed to a loud, cry-inducing noise in the
presence of a harmless furry animal, then the child will begin to cry at
the sight of the animal alone.
Confirmation of this study lead to the multitude of studies on classical
conditioning in human subjects until today.

INDUCTIVE MODEL
(OF FORMULATING A
HYPOTHESIS)

The process of reasoning from specific cases to more general principles.


Often used in science and mathematics.
Research hypothesis often come from the use of inductive reasoning.
Basic tool of theory building.
You must be a Libra. I can
tell by your beautiful clothes,
your meticulous grooming,
and the birthstone ring
youre wearing.

Athletes, varsity players.


All are advertising their sports by the
way they dress up OR, literally
wearing their jerseys or jackets.
Being identified as an athlete or
varsity allows a person privileges not
available to nonathletes

INDUCTIVE MODEL
(OF FORMULATING A
HYPOTHESIS)

B. F. Skinner was an advocate of inductive research in psychology.


He studied operant conditioning in rats and pigeons where they are
reinforced or rewarded when they produce a particular response such as
bar pressing as selected by the experimenter for reinforcement.
He studied many variations of the basic operant procedures keeping
careful record of what happened to behavior under various conditions.
Reinforcement was not consistent
Varied reinforcement based on responses elicited
Withholding reinforcement

B. F. Skinner developed concepts of:

INDUCTIVE MODEL
(OF FORMULATING A
HYPOTHESIS)

partial reinforcement and extinction


along with reliable descriptions of the way intermittent reinforcement alters
behavior

Concepts essential to understanding the learning process grew out of


Skinners inductive approach.
12
astrological
signs represent
theory of
Through
induction,
researchers
constructa theories
bybehavior.
taking bits of
Exposure
empirical
data and Effect
forming(Zajonc,
general 1966)
explanatory schemes to
Consolidated
past published experiments w/ same
accommodate
those facts.

conclusions
The more we are exposed to something, the more we
like it.
(advertising and political campaigns)

DEDUCTIVE MODEL
(OF FORMULATING A
HYPOTHESIS)

The reverse of the inductive model.


Deduction is the process of reasoning from general principles to make
predictions about specific instances.
It is most useful when we have a well-developed theory with clearly
stated basic premises. Then it is possible to deduce predictions about
what should happen in new situations in which the theory would apply.
Testing such predictions provides a test of the value of the theory.

Equity Theory (Walster, Walster, Berscheid, 1978)


These psychologists were not the first to consider equity
or perceived fairness an important determinant of behavior
in human relationships. Aristotle (philosopher) also believed
it was important.
Walster, Walster and Berscheid provided a comprehensive
and useful theory of equity in interpersonal situations.

DEDUCTIVE MODEL
(OF FORMULATING A
HYPOTHESIS)

Walster, Walster and Berscheid proposed that the behavior of


individuals could be predicted by three simple propositions:

1. Individuals will try to optimize their outcomes (outcomes = rewards minus


costs)
2. When individuals believe they are in an inequitable relationships, they will
fell distress in direct proportion to the perceived degree of inequity.
3. The more distress they feel, the harder they will work to restore equity.

Equity theory has been used to predict behavior.


It has successfully predicted outcomes in a great number of interpersonal
circumstances, victimization, helping, employment, and love.
Apparently, whether we feel overbenefited or underbenefited in a
relationship, we will do what we can to restore a sense of fairness.

DEDUCTIVE VS. INDUCTIVE


MODEL

COMBINING INDUCTION AND DEDUCTION


Walster, Walster and Berscheid did not formulate equity theory without some
reference to specific cases.
They formulation the theory on the basis of their own and others observations.
The list of references used for the book describing their theory included more than
500 such observations, which were used as evidence for the theory.
Thus, their propositions were formed initially through induction from specific cases.
Later tests of the propositions were based on the predictions derived through
deduction.
Through Induction, we devise general principles and theories that can be used to
organize, explain, and predict behavior until more satisfactory principles are found.
Through deduction we rigorously test the implication of those theories.

BUILDING ON PRIOR RESEARCH


The most useful way of finding hypotheses is by working from
research that has already been done.
Sometimes, nonexperimental studies can suggest cause-and-effect
explanations that can be translated into experimental hypotheses.
Ex Post Facto Studies: Cigarette smoking and Cancer
Smokers has higher rates of lung cancer than nonsmokers
This study suggested the hypotheses smoking causes
cancer (if people smoke, then they will get cancer)

SERENDIPITY AND THE WINDFALL


HYPOTHESIS
At times, a discovery has been made where none was intended, thus,
serendipity
Serendipity is the knack of finding things that are not being sought.
Ivan Pavlov (1972), studied the digestive glands of dogs and observed the
changes that occurred in their stomach secretions.
Pavlov became interested in salivation. If I feed the dog, how long will
it be before the dog begins to salivate?
As the dogs became familiar with the food (bread), they began to salivate
even before they were actually fed.
Seeing the food seemed to produce salivation.
In a short while, the dogs began to salivate as soon as he (Pavlov) enters the
room.

INTUITION
Using intuition is not necessarily unscientific; rather, the inferences drawn
from intuition can sometimes violate scientific criteria
Intuition may be defined as knowing without reasoning. As such, it is
probably closest to phenomenology.
We acquire phenomenological knowledge simply by attending to our own
experience.
We have a hunch, a guess, a feeling about what will happen in a
particular situation, so we set up an experiment to test it.
Intuition guides what we choose to study.

WHEN IS INTUITION LIKELY TO


BE MOST HELPFUL?
According to Herbert Simon (1967), a psychologist and computer
scientist, intuition is most accurate if it comes from experts.
He believes that good hunches are really an unconscious result of our
own expertise in an area.
The more we know about a topic, the better our intuitive hypotheses are
likely to be (Halpern, 1989).

WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS


There are no rules that can be used to generate a hypotheses (Russell)
Review a psychology journal and just read through the issue.
Chances are good that you will find a topic or article that interests you.
Begin by focusing on one or two broad areas that interests you.
Narrow down your topic to a number of possible topics to choose from.
Try observation. Some good hypotheses come from observing how people
behave in public places.
Lastly, real-world problem. Try to figure out what causes it.

GOOD LUCK!

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