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Estimation of Population

Means: Point Estimation and


Confidence Interval

Statistics

Descriptive

Inferential

Estimation

Point estimate

Hypothesis testing

Interval estimates
(Confidence
Interval)
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Types of Estimators
Point Estimator
- It gives a single value as an estimate
of the parameter of interest

Interval Estimator
- It specifies a range of values of the
parameter and our confidence that the
parameter value is in that range
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Point Estimation
A point estimate of the population parameter is the
sample statistic computed from a random sample
drawn from the population under study.
Certain sample statistic are good point estimators
for certain parameters

----- Estimates --------- Estimates -----

Sample mean is a statistic that varies from sample

to sample
If the investigator had repeated the experiment, he
would have found a range of sample means, any
one of which would be a point estimate of the
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population mean.

A Point Estimate is a single number,


How much uncertainty is associated with a point estimate
of a population parameter?

The point estimate method fails to indicate how


close the estimate is to population parameter. This
flaw can be remedied by use of a confidence interval
estimate (CI).
An interval estimate provides more information about
a population characteristic than does a point estimate.
It provides a confidence level for the estimate. Such
interval estimates are called Confidence Intervals
Lower
Confidence
Limit

Upper

Point Estimate

Confidence
Limit

Width of
confidence interval
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Interval Estimation
It is the interval of numbers in which we have a
specified degree of assurance that the value of the
parameter can be found.
The level of confidence tells the probability the method
produced an interval that includes the unknown
parameter
Gives information about closeness to unknown
population parameters
Stated in terms of level of confidence. (Can never be
100% confident)
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Confidence interval for


population parameter
A confidence interval is a formula that
tell us how to use sample data to
calculate an interval that estimate a
population parameter e.g. population
mean ().
The confidence level is the confidence
coefficient expressed as a percentage i.e.
(1- )%
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Empirical Rule Definition


For data sets having a normal bell-shaped
distribution, the following properties apply:
About 68% of all values fall within 1
standard deviation of the mean
About 95% of all values fall within 2
standard deviation of the mean
About 99.7% of all values fall within 3
standard deviation of the mean.

Confidence Interval
The general formula for all confidence intervals is
equal to:

Point Estimate (Critical Value) *


(Standard Error)
Now using the Empirical Rule for the normal
distribution we know that the interval X + 2 /n ,
or more precisely, the interval X + 1.96 /n
includes 95% of Xs in the repeated sampling.
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Consider a 95% confidence interval:


1 .95

.05

.475

.025
2

Z= -1.96
Lower
Confidence
Limit

/ 2 .025

.475

0
Point
Point Estimate
Estimate

.025
2

Z= 1.96
Upper
Confidence
Limit

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Confidence Intervals
Formula:

XZ
X Z / 2
/2
n
n

Steps:

1.Calculate the sample statistic to use as an


estimate of the population parameter
2.Calculate the lower (LL) and the upper
limits (UL) of the confidence interval
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Determination of
In order to construct an interval estimate, it is
necessary to obtain some estimate of , the
variability of the population from which the sample is
drawn.
x

This is required to obtain an estimate of the standard


error of the sample mean
Generally, the sample standard deviation s is used as
an estimate of .
For a small sample, where n < 30, the t-distribution
should be used, again using s as an estimate of .
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Level of Confidence
Probability that the unknown population
parameter is in the confidence interval in 100
trials. Denoted (1 - ) % = level of
confidence e.g. 90%, 95%, 99%

Is Probability that the parameter is not


within the interval in 100 trials

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Selecting a confidence level


There is no one confidence level that is
appropriate for all circumstances.
Greater confidence level means greater
certainty that the interval estimate of
actually contains . But for 99% or 99.9%
confidence level, the interval may be very
wide.
Smaller confidence levels (eg. 80% or 90%)
produce smaller margins of error and
seemingly more precise interval estimates,
but they are less likely to contain .
By tradition, the default level is 95%.

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Interpretation
The interpretation of the confidence interval is
very important. Basically it means that upon taking a
sample of size n repeatedly and constructing the
interval
X + 1.96 /n each time, we would expect the
population mean to fall within the interval 95% of
the time .

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Interpretation of a Confidence
Interval for Population Mean ()
We can be 100(1-)confident that lies between
the lower and upper bounds of the confidence
interval.
In other way, it means that upon taking a sample of
size n repeatedly and constructing the interval X +
1.96 /n each time, we would expect the population
mean to fall within the interval 95% of the time

The values are called lower and upper


100(1-)% confidence limits.

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Commonly used values of


Z/2
Confidence
level
100 (1-)

90%

0.10

0.05

1.645

95%

0.05

0.025

1.96

99%

0.01

0.005

2.575

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Example 1
If we wish to estimate the mean VO2 uptake for a
population of joggers based on a random sample of
100 joggers, we could use the 95% confidence
interval for . From our random sample of 30 joggers
we know that X = 47.5 ml/kg and S = 4.8 ml/kg. A
95% Confidence Interval (C.I.) of is
X + 1.96 S /n or 47.5 + 1.96 ( 4.8)/5.477
47.5 + 1.718
or ( 45.78, 49.22)
The values 45.78 and 49.22 are the lower and upper
95% confidence limits.
Interpretation: Upon taking a sample size of 30
repeatedly 100 times, 95 times the mean VO2 intake
will fall between 45.78 and 49.22 ---OR--- We are
95% confident that the population mean VO2 intake
lies between range of 45.78 and 49.22 ml/kg.
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Example 2
If we wish to estimate the mean VO2 uptake for a
population of joggers based on a random sample of
100 joggers, we could use the 95% confidence
interval for . From our random sample of 100
joggers we know that X = 47.5 ml/kg and S = 4.8
ml/kg. A 95% Confidence Interval (C.I.) of is
X + 1.96 S /n or 47.5 + 1.96 ( 4.8)/10
47.5 + 0.94
or ( 46.56, 48.44)
The values 46.56 and 48.44 are the lower and
upper 95% confidence limits.
Interpretation: We are 95% confident that in the
long run the intervals constructed in such a way will
contain the population mean .
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Example 3
If we wish to estimate the mean VO2 uptake for a
population of joggers based on a random sample of
100 joggers, we could use the 99% confidence
interval for . From our random sample of 100
joggers we know that X = 47.5 ml/kg and S = 4.8
ml/kg. A 99% Confidence Interval (C.I.) of is
X + 2.575 S /n or 47.5 + 2.575 ( 4.8)/10
47.5 + 1.24
or ( 46.26, 48.74)
The values 46.26 and 48.74 are the lower and
upper 99% confidence limits.
Interpretation: We are 99% confident that in the
long run the intervals constructed in such a way will
contain the population mean .
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Width of a Confidence Interval


The width of any confidence interval is the
difference between the upper confidence
limit and the lower confidence limit .
The width of a confidence interval
represent the accuracy of estimation .

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Factors Affecting Interval Width


Narrow widths and high confidence levels
are desirable, but these two things affect
each
other
Data
Variation
measured by
Sample Size n
Level of Confidence
(1 - )
Confidence Interval Estimate

X Z / 2

X Z / 2
n

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Why Narrow Confidence Interval


are Important ?
Narrow confidence intervals are of the greatest
value in making estimates ,because they allow us
to estimate an unknown parameter with little
room for error .
A confidence interval can be narrowed by:
Increasing the sample size .
Reducing the confidence level (1-)100%
Reducing the source of variability in the
observations ,thus producing less variance .

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Cautions about interval


estimates
There are many assumptions involved in interval
estimation:
The sample is randomly selected from a population.
The sample size is sufficiently large
The population standard deviation is known or s is
a good estimate of .
The selection of a confidence level is an arbitrary
process.
The population is not too skewed
As a result, interval estimates are not precise, but are estimates
or approximations.

Larger n, repeated sampling, comparisons with other


studies, and careful sampling and survey design and
practice can improve the quality of the estimates.

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95%Confidence Interval
A 95% is the most
frequent reported
confidence interval
reported. Not that
when you see certain
interval estimates
reported on TV (for
example some business
or medical statistics),
the confidence level is
not mentioned but it is
under stood that it is
based on a 95%
confidence level.

68% CI More Error


Narrow CI
95% CI Medium
Error
Narrow CI
99% CI Less Error
Wider CI

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