Bayes Factor (BF)

A Bayes factor (BF) is a statistical

index that quantifies the evidence for
a hypothesis, compared to an
alternative hypothesis
The Bayes factor is the relative
evidence in the data. The evidence in
the data favors one hypothesis,
relative to another, exactly to the
degree that the hypothesis predicts
the observed data better than the

 The Bayes factor into this broad equation:

p(H1)/p(H0)=BF10
Where p(x) = the probability of x occurring.
Also, the notation for Bayes Factor, BF10, is read
as "The Bayes Factor of H1 against H0". Some may
see BF01, which would compute the inverse of this
Bayes Factor, or the BF of H0 against H1. Some
people report BF10 whereas others report BF01.
So long as you understand the notation (the first
character in the subscript is the numerator) then
you should be fine in interpreting the BF.

 Suppose a diagnostic test has a 97% detection rate and a 5% false alarm
rate. Suppose a person selected at random tests positive. What is the
probability that the person has the disease?
It might seem that the odds of having the disease are 0.97/0.05 (i.e.,
the detection rate over the false alarm rate), which corresponds to a
probability of about 95%. But Bayesians know that such an answer is not
appropriate because it ignores the prior probability of the disease, which
presumably is very rare.
Suppose the prior probability of having the disease is 1%. Then Bayes' rule
implies that the posterior probability of having the disease is only about
16%, even after testing positive! This type of example is presented over
and over again in introductory expositions (e.g., pp. 103-105 of DBDA2E),
emphatically saying not to use only the detection and false alarm rates,
and always to incorporate the prior probabilities of the conditions.

 The ratio of the detection and false-alarm rates

is the Bayes factor. In model-selection settings,
some people compute the Bayes factor and
use it alone as the basis for model selection.
The Bayes factor alone not to use make
decisions, instead always incorporate the prior
probabilities of the options. The assumption is
that the models all have equal prior
probabilities. But this assumption of equal prior
probabilities seems implausible in most
situations, and should be explicitly justified.

Example
The role of the Bayes factor in the usual simple disease-diagnosis or drugscreening situation described below.
A person is randomly selected from a population in which the prior
probability of having a particular disease is 1%. Denote the condition of the
person by the variable M, which can have two values, either M=healthy or
M=disease. The prior probability can be written as p(M=disease)=0.01, and
hence p(M=healthy)=0.99.

 A diagnostic test for the disease can show a

"positive" result, suggesting the disease is
present, or a "negative" result, suggesting the
disease is absent. The result of the test is the
datum, denoted D, which can have two values
D=pos or D=neg. The detection rate of the test is
97%, meaning p(D=pos|M=disease)=0.97. This is
also called the "sensitivity" of the test. The falsealarm rate of the test is 5%, meaning p(D=pos|
M=healthy)=0.05. The complement of the false
alarm rate is called the "specificity" of the test,
which in this example is 95%.

 Applying Bayes' rule yields:

p(M=disease|D=pos)=p(D=pos|
M=disease)p(M=disease)/p(D=pos)
and
p(M=healthy|D=pos)=p(D=pos|
M=healthy)p(M=healthy)/p(D=pos)

 In the above two equations, the

denominator p(D=pos) is the same,
computed as mp(D=pos|M=m)p(M=m).
The ratio of the two equations is
(P((M=disease)(D=pos)))/(P((M=healthy)
(D=pos))) = (P((D=pos)(M=disease)))/
(P((D=pos)(M=healthy))) X
(P(M=disease))/(P(M=healthy))
it is in the form of Posterior odds = Bayes
factor X Prior odds

 Notice from the above equation that the Bayes factor

is the ratio of the detection rate to the false alarm
rate (when the datum is D=pos). The Bayes factor
converts the prior odds (i.e., the ratio of prior
probabilities) to the posterior odds (i.e., the ratio of
posterior probabilities).
Substituting the numerical values
0.164/0.836=0.97/0.05 X 0.01/0.99
0.196 =19.4X0.0102
Thus the Bayes factor is 19.4 in favor of having the
disease

 Summary
Bayes factors represent the weight of evidence in the data for
competing hypotheses. Bayes factors are the degree to which the
data shift the relative odds between two hypotheses. There are
principled reasons why we should interpret the Bayes factor as a
measure of the strength of the relative evidence.
The Bayes factor is intimately linked to the predictions of a
hypothesis. Because the evidence for a hypothesis given by the
degree to which it has predicted the observed data, hypotheses
that do not have predictions for data cannot accumulate evidence.
Hypotheses with no predictions, such as 0 are not allowed.
The Bayes factor can be directly interpreted, without recourse to
labels. The strength of the Bayes factor is reflected by the fact
that it is a multiplicative change in odds. However, some authors
provide labels to help interpret evidence.

 Several labels for paraphrasing the

size of a BF have been suggested.
The most common system seems to
be the suggestion of Harold Jeffreys
(1961)

BAYES FACTOR

> 100

30 100

10 30

LABEL

Extreme evidence for H1

Very strong evidence for H1

Strong evidence for H1

3 10

Moderate evidence for H1

13

Anecdotal evidence for H1

No evidence

1/3 1

Anecdotal evidence for H0

1/3 1/10

Moderate evidence for H0

1/10 1/30

1/30 1/100

< 1/100

Strong evidence for H0

Very strong evidence for H0

Extreme evidence for H0