The Effect of ENSO on

Precipitation in Atlanta
Steven DiNapoli
EAS 4803 YW
April 22, 2008

Introduction
Current Atlanta Drought
Projected to continue due to La Nia conditions
Many previous droughts were exacerbated by
La Nia (e.g. 1950s, 2000)
Objective of Analysis Analyze relationship
between ENSO and precipitation in Atlanta

Performed correlations on historical ENSO

data and monthly precipitation in Atlanta
Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport

ENSO Data
ONI Oceanic Nio Index
Measure of 3-month running mean SST
anomalies in the Eastern Pacific
Positive Values correspond to El Nio conditions
ONI Data

ONI Value (deg. C)

4
2
0
-2
1950

1960

1970

1980
1990
Year
Atlanta Precipitation

2000

2010

Atlanta Precipitation
ONI Data

4
ONI Value (deg. C)

Hartsfield-Jackson
International
Airport
2
Monthly totals from NCDC
0
Much more variability than ONI data
-2
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Numerous
outlier
points
Year
Atlanta Precipitation

20
Precipitation (in.)

2010

15
10
5
0
1950

1960

1970

1980
Year

1990

2000

2010

Correlating the Data (Attempt #1)

Atlanta Precip vs. ONI value

18
16

Precipitation (in.)

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0
0.5
ONI value

1.5

[r1, p1] = corrcoef(oni, precip);

2.5

Problems with Attempt #1

Too much noise in precipitation data
Affected by outside influences (e.g. hurricanes)
Outlier data points

Correlation Coefficient = 0.0690

Explains less than 0.5% of precipitation variance

p-Value = 0.0687
Correlation is statistically insignificant
p-value should be less than 0.05

Need to filter noise out of precipitation data

3-month running mean precipitation
ONI values are derived from a 3-month running mean

Correlating the Data (Attempt #2)

Filtered Atlanta Precip vs. ONI value

10
9
8

Precipitation (in.)

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0
0.5
ONI value

1.5

2.5

Problems with Attempt #2

Precipitation data still very noisy
Correlation Coefficient = 0.1069
Still very weak; explains ~1% of the variance

p-value = 0.0048
Correlation is significant

More filtering still needed

Next attempt correlates average ONI index for
each year with total yearly precipitation

Average ONI Value (deg. C)

Visual Analysis of Filtered Data

ONI Data

2
1
0
-1
-2
1950

1960

1970

1960

1970

Precipitation (in.)

70

1980
1990
Year
Yearly Precipitation

2000

2010

2000

2010

60
50
40
30
1950

1980
Year

1990

Correlating the Data (Attempt #3)

70

Atlanta Yearly Precip vs. Yearly Average ONI value

65

Precipitation (in.)

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
-1.5

-1

-0.5

0
ONI value

0.5

1.5

Analysis of Attempt #3
Much less noise in the data
Outlier points removed

Correlation coefficient = 0.2462

Still weak, but much stronger than before

p-value = 0.0625
Significance lost due to lack of data points (58 vs. 696)

* Would regional precipitation totals provide a better

dataset to correlate with ENSO?

Conclusion
All major droughts occurred during La Nia
Not all La Nia events lead to drought
The opposite is not always true for El Nio

Correlations were very weak

Data was very noisy
Long-wave synoptic patterns
Hurricanes & convective thunderstorms

La Nina conditions More hurricanes

Numerous other forcings ignored (e.g. NAO)
Only one station considered

Questions?