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Decision Theory
Operations Management
William J. Stevenson
6th
edition
5s-2
Decision Theory
CHAPTER
2s
Decision Making
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
5s-3
Decision Theory
Decision Theory
Decision Theory represents a general
approach to decision making which is suitable for a
wide range of operations management decisions,
including:
Capacity
planning
location
planning
product
product and
and
service
service design
design
equipment
selection
5s-4
Decision Theory
5s-5
Decision Theory
5s-6
Decision Theory
5s-7
Decision Theory
5s-8
Decision Theory
5s-9
Decision Theory
Decision Environments
Certainty - Environment in which
relevant parameters have known
values
Risk - Environment in which certain
future events have probable
outcomes
Uncertainty - Environment in which
it is impossible to assess the
likelihood of various future events
Payoff Table
Possible future demand*
Alternatives Low Moderate High
Small facility
$10
$10
$10
Medium facility
12
12
Large facility
(4)
16
State
re 1
u
t
a
of n
State
of
natur 2
e2
C
ho
os
State
1
e
r
u
t
2
of na
e
A 2
State
of n a
ture 2
Payoff 1
A1
e
s
o
o
Ch
Payoff 2
C h o o se
A2
Payoff 3
A3
e
s
o
o
Ch
Payoff 4
C h o o se
Payoff 5
A4
Payoff 6
Expected value of
Expected payoff
perfect information = under certainty
Expected payoff
under risk
Sensitivity Analysis
Example S-8
#1 Payoff
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
#2 Payoff
B best
C best
A best
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0