Tropical Cyclones,

Hurricanes and Typhoons

Motivation (Why do we care)
Definition

Where and when do they occur

Formation and intensity
Structure
Hazards

Worlds Deadliest Tropical

Cyclones
Of the 20 deadliest
tropical cyclones, 14
have occurred in
South Asia (India,
Bangladesh).
The deadliest was the
great Bhola Cyclone
which hit Bangladesh
in 1970 resulting in
app. 500,000 deaths.

Worlds Deadliest Tropical

Cyclones
The deadliest storm in
the Atlantic Basin
occurred in 1780.
(22,000 deaths)
Deadliest US storm was
the Galveston Hurricane
in 1900 which killed
app. 8,000 people.
Of the 10 deadliest
storms in the US, only 1
has occurred since 1957
(Katrina - 1900 dead)

What About Canada?

On average, about 4

hurricanes impact
Atlantic Canada in
any given year.
Deadliest hurricane
in Canada occurred in
1775 when 4000
people died along the
Newfoundland coast.
What about the 2nd
deadliest?

Economic Impact
The most obvious impact economically

speaking is the rebuilding of damaged

infrastructure.
However, other costs that are less often

considered include:
The cost of evacuation
The impact on energy production
The cost of severe coastal erosion.

Costliest U.S. Hurricanes

Hurricane Katrina

(2005) est. 81 billion

dollars.
Hurricane Andrew
(1992) est. 40 billion
dollars.
If Andrew had made

landfall 20 miles to
the north, loss of life
and property would
have easily doubled.

Damage (wind)
Wind damage with

Hurricane Andrew
was extreme with
wind speeds on land
measured at 270
kph.

What if Andrew hit

Miami?

Damage (water)
While Katrina was an

extremely strong
hurricane while
offshore, most of the
damage was
associated with
storm surge and
flooding.

Damage (water)
New Orleans is

particularly vulnerable
to flooding because
the city itself is below
sea level.
With the storm center
passing to the east,
most of the flooding
came from Lake
Pontchartrain.

Damage (water)

This is a
picture of
flooding near
Venice,
Louisiana that
resulted from
levee failure.

Damage (water)
This is a picture
of damage from
near Gulfport,
Mississippi
where the
damage was
from storm
surge. Note that
the damage
resembles wind
damage.

Erosion

Definition
A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low

pressure system without any "front" attached,

that develops over the tropical or subtropical
waters, and has an organized circulation with
winds of at least 120 kph (74 mph).
Depending upon location, tropical cyclones
have different names around the world. In the:
Atlantic/Eastern Pacific Oceans - hurricanes
Western Pacific - typhoons
Indian Ocean - cyclones

Definition
What do we mean by

warm core?
Literally that the

warmest air is
located at the center
of the storm.
This warm air is
generated by a
couple of different
mechanisms.
Latent Heat Release

Definition
What do we mean by

warm core?
Another mechanism

is subsidence. As
the air in the eye of
the cyclone sinks, it
warms due to
compression.

Where and When

Note that tropical cyclones do not form near the equator due
to the lack of the coriolis effect. Also, storms tend to curve to
the north and east as they interact with the westerlies.

Where and When

The Coriolis effect is

the apparent deflection

of air due to the
rotation of the earth.
Air, rather than flowing
directly from areas of
high pressure to low
pressure, rotate to the
right of this direction in
the Northern
Hemisphere.

At least 4 degrees from the

equator:
Coriolis force can be large enough to
produce rotation
(deflecting to right in the Northern
Hemisphere)
Before:

After:

Where and When

Worldwide, tropical cyclone activity peaks in late summer when
water temperatures are warmest.

Where and When

In general, sea surface temperatures are warmer along eastern
coasts than western coasts and are warmest near Indonesia
accounting for the strongest and most frequent activity.

Where and When

In general, sea surface temperatures are warmer along eastern
coasts than western coasts and are warmest near Indonesia
accounting for the strongest and most frequent activity.

Formation and intensity

There are at least four main requirements for

tropical cyclogenesis :
enough Coriolis force to develop a low pressure

center,
a preexisting low-level focus or disturbance
sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures
approximately 27 C at least 60 m deep.
low vertical wind shear

These conditions are necessary but NOT

sufficient conditions for the formation of tropical

cyclones.

Formation

A low-level disturbance is necessary to start and concentrate

convection locally.
Most commonly in the Atlantic basin, the disturbances are
either fronts, easterly waves or the intertropical convergence
zone. Storms that develop near the coast of Africa from easterly
waves are referred to as Cape Verde storms.

Formation
Since easterly waves account for about 60% of all

Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, there is a relationship

between West African rain and cyclone frequency.

Formation
Why is it that most easterly waves do not

develop into hurricanes?

Strong descending air associated with Azores

high produces an inversion inhibiting

convection.
Vertical wind shear is usually too strong over
the tropical Atlantic for the cloud systems to
stay together.
The middle layers of the atmosphere are
usually too dry.

Formation
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), also known as the
Intertropical Front, Monsoon trough, Doldrums or the Equatorial
Convergence Zone, is a belt of low pressure girdling Earth at the equator. Air,
convergences at the surface towards this low pressure and then rises forming a
band of clouds and convection which can sometimes form tropical cyclones.

Formation
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), migrates
with the Sun towards the summer hemisphere. Note that
the ITCZ is slightly displaced towards the Northern
Hemisphere since there is more land mass.

Intensity
So why do we need

warm sea surface

temperatures?
Consider the same
schematic that we
saw earlier:

Intensity
There is a direct relationship between

the intensity (central pressure) of the

most intense hurricanes and the
temperature of the sea-surface over
which the storms are moving.
Note from the attached chart that the
six strongest hurricanes all occurred in
the western Pacific where the seasurface temperatures are warmest.

Intensity
Note that the
5 lowest
pressures
ever recorded
in tropical
cyclones all
have occurred
in the Pacific
basin.

Intensity
Predictedmaximumintensityofahurricanebaseduponaverageocean

surfacetemperatures.Theagreementbetweentheoryandobservationsis
excellent,showingtheimportanceofawarmoceanforhurricaneformation.

Intensity
However, we not only

need to know how

warm the ocean
surface is, but how
deep is the warm
water. That is
because the storm
itself can cool the sea
surface by bringing
up cooler water
through upwelling.

Intensity
Weak wind shear:
Energy is derived from release of

latent heat in the eyewall.

A concentration of energy is
necessary for development
If the clouds are carried away by the
high winds aloft, then the energy is
no longer concentrated sufficiently
for the hurricane to develop.

Intensity
Vertical wind

shear of less than

10 m/s (20kts,
22 mph) between
the surface and
the tropopause is
required for
tropical cyclone
development.

Intensity
Strong wind shear

can "blow" the

tropical cyclone
apart, as it displaces
the mid-level warm
core from the surface
circulation and dries
out the mid-levels of
the troposphere,
halting development.

In what sense is the wind

blowing
in the vicinity of the
1. Counterclockwise
2. Clockwise
Azores
High?
3. Directly towards

the center
4. Directly away from
the center

What is the cause of the relative

warmth in the center (eye) of a
1. Strong winds
hurricane?

2. Warm oceans
3. Condensation

heating
4. Convergence

Where would you expect

the
most significant wind
1. A
2. B
damage?
3. C

4. D
5. E

B
C
D
E

Life Cycle
A tropical depression is

designated when the

first appearance of a
lowered pressure and
organized circulation in
the center of the
thunderstorm complex
occurs.
Winds near the center
are constantly between
20 (37 kph) and 34
knots (23 - 39 mph).

Life Cycle
Once a tropical

depression has
intensified to the point
where its maximum
sustained winds are
between 35 (63 kph)-64
knots (39-73 mph), it
becomes a tropical
storm. It is at this time
that it is assigned a
name.
Tropical Storm Fay (2008)
Note that you can see
some banding and
symmetry

Life Cycle
As surface pressures

continue to drop, a
tropical storm becomes
a hurricane when
sustained wind speeds
reach 64 knots (74 mph
or 120 kph). A
pronounced rotation
develops around the
central core.
Large bands of clouds
and precipitation spiral
from the eye wall and
are thusly called spiral
rain bands.

The Saffir-Simpson
Intensity Scale

Life Cycle (North Atlantic)

Cape-Verde type

hurricanes usually
travel slowly westward
(10-20 km per hr) and
may take a week to
cross the Atlantic.
Once hurricanes have
reached the Caribbean
or the Gulf of Mexico,
they recurve to the
north and generally
speed up.

Life Cycle
Hurricane winds usually diminish

very quickly once landfall occurs

The hurricane has lost its energy source

(warm water is the fuel for the latent

heating).
The increased surface roughness weakens
the system with surface pressures rising,
with winds decreasing.
Storms rarely remain hurricanes for more
than 12-24 h after landfall.

Storm Structure

The main parts of a tropical cyclone are the rainbands, the

eye, and the eyewall. Air spirals in toward the center in a

counter-clockwise pattern in the norther hemisphere
(clockwise in the southern hemisphere), and out the top in
the opposite direction. In the very center of the storm, air
sinks, forming an "eye" that is mostly cloud-free.

Storm Structure
The Eye
The hurricane's center is a
relatively calm, generally
clear area of sinking air
and light winds that
usually doesn't exceed 15
mph (24 kph) and is
typically 20-40 miles (3264 km) across. An eye will
usually develop when the
maximum sustained wind
speeds go above 74 mph
(119 kph) and is the
calmest part of the storm.

Storm Structure
The eyewall
consists of a ring of tall
thunderstorms that
produce heavy rains and
usually the strongest
winds. Changes in the
structure of the eye and
eyewall can cause
changes in the wind
speed, which is an
indicator of the storm's
intensity. The eye can
grow or shrink in size,
and double (concentric)
eyewalls can form.

Storm Structure
Rainbands
Curved bands of clouds
and thunderstorms that
trail away from the eye
wall in a spiral fashion.
These bands are
capable of producing
heavy bursts of rain
and wind, as well as
tornadoes. There are
sometimes gaps in
between spiral rain
bands where no rain or
wind is found.

Storm Structure
Tropical Cyclone Size
Typical hurricane
strength tropical
cyclones are about 300
miles (483 km) wide
although they can vary
considerably.
The relative sizes of
the largest and
smallest tropical
cyclones on record as
compared to the
United States.

Hurricane Hazards
A)Storm Surge
B)Wind Damage
C)Heavy rains (flooding)
D)Associated tornados
About 90% of fatalities are caused by coastal

and inland storm surge

Hurricane Hazards
What is a storm surge?

It is an 8-160 km wide dome of water that

sweeps over the coastline during landfall.

Hurricane Hazards
Strong onshore winds and relatively low

air pressure are responsible for a storm

surge
A sea-level rise of about .5 m for every

50 mb of pressure loss.
A surge is superimposed on the normal
tidal oscillation, so that the danger is
greatest at high tide
Plus wind-driven waves up to 3 m

Hurricane Hazards
The level of surge in a

particular area is also

determined by the slope
of the continental shelf. A
shallow slope off the coast
(right, top picture) will
allow a greater surge to
inundate coastal
communities.
Communities with a
steeper continental shelf
(right, bottom picture) will
not see as much surge
inundation, although large
breaking waves can still
present major problems.

Hurricane Hazards
SLOSH (Sea, Lake and

Overland Surges from

Hurricanes) is a
computerized model run by
the National Hurricane
Center (NHC) to estimate
storm surge heights and
winds resulting from
historical, hypothetical, or
predicted hurricanes by
taking into account
Pressure
Size
Forward speed
Track
Winds

Hurricane Hazards
One of the areas most

vulnerable to storm
surge is Tampa Bay,
FL. This is of major
concern, because over
3 million people live
the region, and it is
highly vulnerable to
storm surge-particularly for a storm
moving northeast or
north-northeast at
landfall,

Hurricane Hazards
Even a Category 1

hurricane can create

significant surges--up
to 7' in Hillsborough
County, 6' in Manatee
County, 7' in Pinellas
County, and 9' in
Pasco County. An
extreme Category 5
hurricane can create a
storm surge of 28' in
Hillsborough County.

Hurricane Hazards
Discussion

of
vulnerability
of
Orleans
from
a
Weather calendar:

the
New
2004

The conservative estimates

of loss of life from a direct

hit from a category 5
hurricane is 25,000 deaths
(recall that the case of
Katrina was a category 3
tracking to the east of
downtown New Orleans).

Photograph (courtesy of

NASA)

Hurricane Hazards
Examples of hurricanes with noteworthy

storm surge
Galveston, Texas (Sept. 8, 1900)

6,000 perished
Camille (Aug. 17, 1969)
Cat. 5 system with 186 mile per hour winds; 7.3

metre surge

Bangladesh (Bay of Bengal); November 13,

197o; 7 metre surge; 500,000 perished

Hurricane Hazards

Hurricane Hazards

Coastal effects of Camille

When Warnings are

Ignored

The same apt. building

destroyed with 22 lives lost

36 Years Later
Katrinas landfall was at

a category 4, but with a

comparable storm surge
to that of Camille;
Katrina had weakened to a

Category 4 hurricane with

maximum sustained winds
estimated at 145 mph as it
made landfall early Monday.

However, the storm surge of

8.4 m, generally found in

category 5 storms, was
maintained during Katrinas
weakening to a category 4.

Galveston Hurricane
(1900)

Hurricane Hazards
6,000 to 12,000 killed

of the total population

of 37,000
75% of the city was
destroyed
Most of the fatalities
were drownings in a 7
m storm surge

The Wall Street of the

Southwest
High ground was only
2.5 m
Top winds were
probably 125 mph
though the islands
only anemometer was
swept away after
recording 102 mph

Hurricane Hazards
Warnings existed even in 1900:
sailors arrived in port talking of

stormy seas
Though the residents knew there
was a storm in the Gulf of Mexico,
there was no hint of where landfall
would occur

Saturday, Sept 8, 1900

Atmospheric

pressures plunged
in the morning
Winds increased
A steamship was
torn from its
moorings and
promptly smashed
through the three
bridges to the
mainland

Saturday, Sept 8, 1900

By evening, the winds

had shifted to easterly,

bringing in the waters
of the Gulf of Mexico
The island was
flooded, and residents
flocked to higher
ground (8 ft.) as rats
clinging to the sinking
mast of a ship

Sunday Morning
Nearly everyone

in the city lost

some family and
friends
Flood waters had
drained back to
seas exposing
bodies and ruins
of the city

Isaac Cline
Contributed to the citys complacency by dismissing

the notion that a hurricane could destroy Galveston

This attitude contributed to the lack of any seawall
construction

Isaac Cline
Sent observations and warnings

throughout the hurricanes fury

Endured personal tragedy (wife
died) during the storm

Lessons learned
The existence of

the new sea wall

prevented major
loss of life during
a 1915 hurricane
in which eight
people were killed

Wind Damage
The two storms

causing the most

widespread wind
damage in the US
were Hurricanes
Camille (1969) and
Andrew (1992)
An entire neighborhood leveled
by Andrew (1992)

Flooding-Floyd (199)
The hurricane produced

torrential rainfall in eastern

North Carolina, adding
more rain to an area hit by
Hurricane Dennis just
weeks earlier. The rains
caused widespread flooding
over a period of several
weeks; nearly every river
basin in the eastern part of
the state exceeded 500year flood levels. In total,
Floyd was responsible for
57 fatalities and $4.5billion
($5.7billion in 2006 U.S.
dollars) in damage, mostly
in North Carolina

Flooding-Floyd (1999)
Floyd dropped nearly

17inches (430mm) of rain

during the hours of its
passage and many residents
werent aware of the flooding
until the water came into their
homes. The National Guard
and the Coast Guard
performed nearly 1700 fresh
water rescues of people
trapped on the roofs of their
homes due to the rapid rise of
the water. By contrast, many
of the worst affected areas did
not reach peak flood levels for
several weeks after the storm,
as the water accumulated in
rivers and moved
downstream.

Flooding-Floyd (1999)
The extensive flooding

resulted in significant
crop damage.
Around 31,000 jobs
were lost from over
60,000 businesses
through the storm,
causing nearly
$4billion (1999USD,
$4.7billion 2006USD)
in lost business
revenue.

Flooding-Floyd (1999)
Runoff from the

hurricane created
significant problems
for the ecology of
North Carolina's rivers
and sounds.
Freshwater runoff,
sediment, and
decomposing organic
matter caused salinity
and oxygen levels in
Pamlico Sound and its
tributary rivers to drop
to nearly zero.

Forecasting
There are several

elements to tropical
cyclone forecasting:
track forecasting,
intensity forecasting,
rainfall forecasting,
storm surge, and
tornado forecasting.

The large-scale

synoptic flow
determines 70 to 90
percent of a tropical
cyclone's motion.
The deep-layer mean
flow is considered to
be the best tool in
determining track
direction and speed.

Forecasting
The 1-2-3 rule

(mariners' 1-2-3 rule

or danger area) is a
guideline commonly
taught to mariners for
hurricane and tropical
storm tracking and
prediction. It refers to
the rounded long-term
NHC/TPC forecast
errors of 100-200-300
nautical miles at 24-4872hours, respectively.

Forecasting
Because of the

inherit uncertainty in
the exact track
forecast, the national
Hurricane Center
issues forecasts that
include an ever
expanding envelope
of threat area.

Forecasting
Some forecasts

however, have less

confidence than
others.
Consider the spread
in the various track
forecasts from
different models for
Hurricane Katrina
when Katrina was
crossing Florida.

Forecasting
However, once the

storm moved into

the Gulf of Mexico
and intensified,
forecast models
came into better
agreement
concerning the track
of Katrina.

Forecasting
Forecasters are less

skillful at predicting the

intensity of tropical
cyclones than cyclone
track.
The lack of improvement
in intensity forecasting is
due to the complexity of
tropical systems and an
incomplete
understanding of their
internal dynamics.

Forecasting
Hurricane Hunters

are aircraft that fly

into tropical cyclones
in the North Atlantic
Ocean and
Northeastern Pacific
Ocean for the
specific purpose of
directly measuring
weather data in and
around those storms.

1) Need to know how

intense the storm is.

2) Need adequate
data to determine
where the storm will
track.
3) Need to know the
details of the
hurricane to verify
computer models of
hurricanes.

Forecasting
Naming
Storms reaching tropical storm strength were initially given

names to eliminate confusion when there are multiple

systems in any individual basin at the same time, which
assists in warning people of the coming storm.

Naming of Atlantic tropical storms has occurred

since 1953

Lists included only womens names until 1979

Since 1979, mens and womens names have

been alternated

Six lists are used

The 2005 list will be used again in 2011 (minus

Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma)

Forecasting
Naming
Storms reaching tropical storm strength were initially given

names to eliminate confusion when there are multiple

systems in any individual basin at the same time, which
assists in warning people of the coming storm.

Naming of Atlantic tropical storms has occurred

since 1953

Lists included only womens names until 1979

Since 1979, mens and womens names have

been alternated

Six lists are used

The 2005 list will be used again in 2011 (minus

Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma)

Long Term Trends

While the number of

storms in the Atlantic

has increased since
1995, there is no
obvious global trend;
the annual number of
tropical cyclones
worldwide remains
about 8710.
In spite of that, there is
some evidence that the
intensity of hurricanes
is increasing.

References
Gray, W. M., C. W. Landsea, P. W. Mielke, Jr., and K. J. Berry, 1994: Predicting

Atlantic Basin seasonal tropical storm activity by June 1. Weather Forecasting,

9, 103-115.

Larson, E., 2000: Isaacs storm: A man, a time, and the deadliest hurricane in

history. Vintage.

Organization of American States: Primer on Natural Hazard Management in

Integrated
Regional
Development
Planning.
Available
http://www.oas.org/osde/publications/Unit/oea66e/begin.htm#Contents

Toomey, D., 2002:

at

Storm chasers: The hurricane hunters and their fateful

flight into Hurricane Janet. W. W. Norton and Co.

Web Sites
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream//tropics/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Andrew
www.nhc.noaa.gov
www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd