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Emphasis Role
Accounting: Develop & report Collecting & presenting
financial performa- financial data
ance of the firm on
accounting basis
Finance: Maintaining cash Decision making based on
flows to satisfy financial data
requirements
Role of the Financial Manager (FM)
FM
Flow of funds
( Savings)
Seekers of funds
(mainly business Suppliers of funds
firms, financial (mainly households)
Flow of financial
Institutions & govt)
assets & services
1 0.25 36
2 0.50 26
3 0.25 12
2 0.50 26
r =25
3 0.25 12
Going back to our example of shares P and Q,
std. deviation of P is and std. deviation of
Q is .Hence we can say that share is
times riskier than share .
Portfolios & Risk
Investing the entire money in one asset can be highly
risky as if something happens to the company, all your
investment will be reduced to nought. So it is
advisable to divide your investible funds into two or
more assets.
“Don’t put all your eggs into one basket” is the oft
heard advice. A portfolio is a set of assets that is
owned by an investor. The purpose of creating a
portfolio is to achieve a reduction of risk through a
process known as diversification. Diversification can
be achieved within an asset class or across asset
classes.
Let’s see how it works:
Let’s look at a simple scenario of a portfolio of two
securities, our ABC Corp & XYZ Ltd.
Investors’ assessment of returns on shares of the
companies are as follows:
1 0.25 36 22
2 0.50 26 16
3 0.25 12 14
Chance *
Scen- Chance Return Return Deviation Deviation Product of
Product of
ario p ABC XYZ RABC-EABC RXYZ-EXYZ deviations Deviations
1 0.25 36 22 11 5 55 13.75
2 0.5 26 16 1 -1 -1 -0.50
S sifiable Risk
NO. OF STOCKS
Risk of a portfolio
In a well diversified portfolio, all the unsystematic
(diversifiable) risk must have been eliminated and only
that risk which can’t be diversified away is applicable.
How do we measure the non-diversifiable risk? For
this one has to know by how much the returns on the
portfolio varies for a 1% change in the returns of the
market portfolio. This relative risk can be used as an
effective proxy for the non-diversifiable risk as market
portfolio represents the most diversified portfolio of
risky assets an investor could buy. It gives us an idea
of the vulnerability of a portfolio’s return to market
risk. This vulnerability is measured by the sensitivity of
the return of the portfolio vis-à-vis the market return
and is indicated by (Greek letter Beta)
A beta of 2 means when the market return
increases by 10%, security (portfolio) return
increases by 20%.A beta of 0.5 means that if
the market return increases by 10%, security
(portfolio) return increases by 5%.A beta of 1
means that the security (portfolio) return moves
in tandem with the market return. By default,
the market portfolio has a beta of____ ?
Estimating Beta
We can use regression method using periodic (daily,
weekly, monthly etc) returns from the security
(portfolio) and returns from the market.
The methodology
Plot the returns from the market along the X-axis and
those from a share/portfolio corresponding to those
market returns on the Y-axis. You may get a scattered
diagram. Using the method of regression, we can find
the best-fitting line and can be expressed as
k j = α j+ β j k m + e j
There may be a return from the share/portfolio when
the market return is zero. This is represented by the Y-
intercept and is referred to as α (Alpha); ej is error
The β j in the equation represents the slope of the
fitted line and measures the responsiveness of the
security/portfolio to the general market .It is defined as
the ratio of the security’s covariance of return with
the market to the variance of the market.
Or β j = Cov ( k j, km)
Var (km)
∑ p (k j - k j )( km – k m )
=
∑p (km – km)2
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Investors always have access and option to invest in
certain types of instruments which offer risk free
returns. For example, when one puts his money in a
fixed deposit of a bank or in a treasury bill, he is
assured of the contracted interest returns, or we say
that these instruments represent the risk-free
category. The returns from them can be considered to
be risk-free. So, whenever he invests in a risky
security or portfolio, he expects to get a premium on
returns to compensate for the risk. Or he demands a
risk premium.
Or, he needs
Return from the risky security/portfolio = Risk-free
return + Risk premium corresponding to the risk.
Or
Risk premium = Return from the security - Risk Free
return.
In a competitive market, the diversifiable risks can be
eliminated and hence only market risk has to be
considered, represented by the Beta of the
security/portfolio.
In the 1960s, Sharpe, Lintner and Mossin evolved this
into a model, which came to be called the Capital
Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). According to this,
Expected Risk premium on stock/portfolio
=
Beta Expected risk premium on market
or R – R f = β ( R m – Rf)
Assumptions underlying CAPM
While investing in a portfolio, investors are concerned only
about risk & return.
Purchase or sale of a security can be undertaken in
infinitely divisible units.
Short selling without limit can be resorted to.
Market is efficient. All information that could possibly
affect the prices becomes available to all investors quickly
and more or less simultaneously.
There are no transaction costs or taxes.
Investors can borrow and lend any amount at the risk free
rate.
Investors have homogenous expectations w r t the
decision period.
Dividend Capitalization Model
This is another model investors use when they
investing in stocks. It works on the premise that the
price of any share is based on the benefits the holders
of the share expect to receive in future in the form of
dividends or the present value of future dividends,
computed at an appropriate discount rate. The return
from holding the share is received in the form of
dividends or capital appreciation at the time of selling.
The risk part is reflected in the discount rate selected.
The methodology used is known as fundamental
analysis of investments and form the basis of Value
Based Investing. Decisions regarding purchase or sale
will be made based on the difference between the
fundamental value and the market value.
Example:
We expect to receive dividends of Rs.20, Rs.30
and Rs.40 respectively at the end of 1st, 2nd and
3rd year respectively. If you desire to earn a
return of 25% p.a. on your investment, how
much shall I pay for the share now?
n
∑ C + Pn Conversion Ratio
t=1 (1+r)t (1+r)n
Where C=coupon amount
r= reqd rate of return
Pn = exp. Price of equity share on
conversion
n = no of years to maturity
Equity Evaluation
Dividend Model/Dividend Capitalization Model
We have already seen that the price we are prepared
to pay for a share is nothing but the present value of
the dividends we expect to receive on the share and
the price at which we expect to sell it in the future.
Abstracting from our example, if the investment
horizon is one year, the present value or the
fundamental value of the share today will be
P(0)= D(1)+P(1) (Eq 1)
(1+k)
where D(1) is the expected dividend at the end of the
year
P(1) is the expected price at the end of the year, and
k is the appropriate rate of return for the share.
What is the diff between P(1) and P(0)?
Applying the same procedure to find the price at the
end of the first year P(1) w r t to price at the end of the
second year,P(2),
P(1) = D(2)+ P(2) where (Eq. 2)
(1+k)
D(2) is the expected dividend at the end of the second
year,
P(2) is the expected price of the share at the end of
the second year.
Substitute the value of P(1) from Eq 2 in Eq 1.
The process can be repeated to any number of
years. If we do the process indefinitely (without
an intention of selling), the P(0) would be
nothing but the discounted value of the
expected future dividends.
Or,P(0)= D(1) + D(2) + D(3) + -----
(1+k) (1+k)2 (1+k)3
If the company is expected to pay a uniform
dividend of D, or D(1)=D(2)=D(3)=……=D,
then P(0) will be D + D + D + ……
(1+k) (1+k)2 (1+k)3
Or P(0)= D/k (ref Annuity formula)
Valuation under dividend growth
Assume that the dividend grows at a
compounded rate of g per annum. If dividend at
the end of first period is D(1), then dividend at
the end of second year is D(1)(1+g) and that at
the end of third year is D(1)(1+g)2 and so on.
Then
P(0) = D(1) + D(1)(1+g) + D(1)(1+g)2 +……..
(1+k) (1+k)2 (1+k)3
This expression gets simplified into
P(0) = D(1) when g is less than k
(k –g)
Cost of Capital
Is the rate of return a firm must earn on its
investments for the market value of the firm to
remain unaffected. Thus, COC can be regarded
as the rate of return required by investors on
capital provided by them.
Why needed?
1.For analyzing cap. inv. decision COC is required.
2.Other decisions like leasing, long-term financing, and
working capital policy requires estimate of COC
3.For maximizing the value of the firm, the costs of all
inputs, including the capital input, must be minimized
and hence the need to measure the COC.
Capital components
Only LT capital considered
1. Long-term debt capital (Debenture, Term-
Loan)
2.Preference capital
3. Equity (PUC + Retained Earnings)
1.Cost of Debt capital
a. Cost of Debenture: is defined as the discount rate
which equates the net proceeds from issue of
debentures to the expected cash outflows in the form
of interest payments and principal repayment
n
Or P = C(1-T) + F
K d = C (1-T) + (F-P)/n
(P+F)
2
If interest is payable half yearly, the COC will
k d in 2n
P= C(1-T)/2 + F
t= 1 (1+kd)t (1+Kd)2n
b. Cost of Term Loans from FIs.
COC= Interest rate(1-T)
c. Cost of preference capital
Fixed dividend, payable at the discretion of the BOD
but Cos intend to pay and shareholders
expect to receive dividends regularly
Thus cost of Pref. Cap. Is K p in
n
P= D + F where
t=1 (1+kp)t (1+Kp)n
P = net amount realized per pref. share
D=Pref. Div. per share payable annually
F=Redemption price
n= maturity period
An approximation
K p = D+ (F-P)/n
(P+F)
2
∞
Cost of Perpetual pref. cap: P= D
t=1 (1+kp)t
Cost of Equity Capital
The rate of return reqd by the suppliers of debt capital
and preference capital can be ascertained easily
because the benefits expected by them can be
defined with near certainty. The estimation of the rate
of return required by the equity shareholders is difficult
as benefits expected by them can’t be ascertained
easily. To overcome this problem, different
approaches have been proposed: dividend
capitalization, CAPM, realized yield, bond-yield plus
premium, and earnings –price approaches.
Dividend capitalization approach:
We know that
P0 = D1 + D2 +----------+ D∞
(1+ks) (1+Ks)2 (1+Ks)∞