Chapter10 Section2

Chapter 10
Section 2
Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean
Assuming the Population Standard
Deviation is Known
Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 1 of 55
Chapter 10 Section 2
Learning objectives
1
Understand the logic of hypothesis testing

Test hypotheses about a population mean with
known using the classical approach
known using P-values
known using confidence intervals
Understand the difference between statistical
significance and practical significance
Learning objectives
1

We have the outline of a hypothesis test, just not
the detailed implementation
How do we quantify unlikely?
How do we calculate Type I and Type II errors?
What is the exact procedure to get to a do not
reject / reject conclusion?
There are three equivalent ways to perform a
hypothesis test
They will reach the same conclusion
The methods
The classical approach
The P-value approach
The confidence interval approach
If the sample value is too many standard deviations
away, then it must be too unlikely

If the probability of the sample value being that far
away is small, then it must be too unlikely

If we are not sufficiently confident that the parameter
is likely enough, then it must be too unlikely
Dont worry well be explaining more

The three methods all begin the same way
We have a null hypothesis, that the actual mean is
equal to a value 0
We have an alternative hypothesis
The three methods all set up a criterion

A criterion that quantifies unlikely
That the actual mean is unlikely to be equal to 0
A criterion that determines what would be a do not
reject and what would be a reject
The three methods all need information
We run an experiment
We collect the data
We calculate the sample mean
The three methods all make the same

assumptions to be able to make the statistical
calculations
That the sample is a simple random sample
That the sample mean has a normal distribution
In this section we assume that the population
mean is known (as in section 9.1)
We can apply our techniques if either
The population has a normal distribution
Our sample size n is large (n 30)
In those cases, the distribution of the sample

mean x is normal with mean and standard
deviation / n
The three methods all compare the observed
results with the previous criterion
Classical how many standard deviations
P-value the size of the probability
Confidence interval inside or outside the interval
If the results are unlikely based on these

criterion, then we say that the result is
statistically significant
The three methods all conclude similarly
We do not reject the null hypothesis, or
We reject the null hypothesis
We reject the null hypothesis when the result is

statistically significant
We now will cover how each of the
Classical
P-value, and
Confidence interval
approaches will show us how to conclude

whether the result is statistically significant or not
Learning objectives
1

We compare the sample mean x to the
hypothesized population mean 0
Measure the difference in units of standard deviations
A lot of standard deviations is far few standard
deviations is not far
Just like using a general normal distribution
How far is too far?
For example, we can use = 0.05 as the level of
significance
Unlikely means that this difference occurs with
probability = 0.05 of the time, or less
This concept applies to two-tailed tests, lefttailed tests, and right-tailed tests
For two-tailed tests
The least likely 5% is the lowest 2.5% and highest
2.5%
2.5% (below
(below 1.96
1.96 and
and above
above +1.96
+1.96 standard
standard
deviations)
deviations)
1.96
1.96 and
and +1.96
+1.96 are
are the
the critical
critical values
values
The region outside this is the rejection region
For left-tailed tests
The least likely 5% is the lowest 5% (below 1.645
standard
standard deviations)
deviations)
1.645
1.645 is
is the
the critical
critical value
value
The region less than this is the rejection region
For right-tailed tests
The least likely 5% is the highest 5% (above 1.645
standard
standard deviations)
deviations)
+1.645
+1.645 is
is the
the critical
critical value
value
The region greater than this is the rejection region
An example of a two-tailed test
A bolt manufacturer claims that the diameter of
the bolts average 10.0 mm
H0: Diameter = 10.0
H1: Diameter 10.0
We take a sample of size 40

(Somehow) We know that the standard deviation of
the population is 0.3 mm
The sample mean is 10.12 mm
Well use a level of significance = 0.05
Do we reject the null hypothesis?
10.12 is 0.12 higher than 10.0

The standard error is (0.3 / 40) = 0.047
The test statistic is 2.53
The critical normal value, for /2 = 0.025, is 1.96
2.53 is more than 1.96
Our conclusion
We have sufficient evidence that the population mean
diameter is not 10.0
An example of a left-tailed test
A car manufacturer claims that the mpg of a
certain model car is at least 29.0
H0: MPG = 29.0
H1: MPG < 29.0

the population is 0.5
The sample mean mpg is 28.89
28.89 is 0.11 lower than 29.0

The test statistic is -1.39
-1.39 is greater than -1.645, the left-tailed critical
value for = 0.05
Our conclusion
We do not reject the null hypothesis
We have insufficient evidence that the population
mean mpg is less than 29.0
An example of a right-tailed test
A bolt manufacturer claims that the defective
rate of their product is at most 1.70 per 1,000
H0: Defect Rate = 1.70
H1: Defect Rate > 1.70

the population is .06
The sample defect rate is 1.78

8.43 is more than 1.645, the right-tailed critical value
for = 0.05
Our conclusion
rate is more than 1.70
Two-tailed test
The critical values are z/2 and z/2
The rejection region is {less than z/2} and {greater
than z1-/2}
Left-tailed test
The critical value is z
The rejection region is {less than z}
Right-tailed test
The critical value is z
The rejection region is {greater than z}
The difference is
x 0
In units of standard deviations, this is

z0
x 0
/ n
This is called the test statistic

If the test statistic is in the rejection region we
reject
The general picture for a level of significance
Learning objectives
1

The P-value is the probability of observing a
sample mean that is as or more extreme than
the observed
The probability is calculated assuming that the
null hypothesis is true
We use the P-value to quantify how unlikely the
sample mean is
Just like in the classical approach, we calculate
the test statistic
x 0
z0
/ n
We then calculate the P-value, the probability

that the sample mean would be this, or more
extreme, if the null hypothesis was true
The two-tailed, left-tailed, and right-tailed
calculations are slightly different
For the two-tailed test, the unlikely region are
values that are too high and too low
Small P-values corresponds to situations where
it is unlikely to be this far away
For the left-tailed test, the unlikely region are
values that are too low
it is unlikely to be this low
For the right-tailed test, the unlikely region are
values that are too high
it is unlikely to be this high
For all three models (two-tailed, left-tailed, righttailed)
The larger P-values mean that the difference is not
relatively large that its not an unlikely event
The smaller P-values mean that the difference is
relatively large that its an unlikely event
Larger P-values
A P-value of 0.30, for example, means that this value,
or more extreme, could happen 30% of the time
30% of the time is not unusual
Smaller P-values
A P-value of 0.01, for example, means that this value,
or more extreme, could happen only 1% of the time
1% of the time is unusual
The decision rule is
For a significance level
Do not reject the null hypothesis if the P-value is
greater than
Reject the null hypothesis if the P-value is less than
For example, if = 0.05

A P-value of 0.30 is likely enough, compared to a
criterion of 0.05
A P-value of 0.01 is unlikely, compared to a criterion
of 0.05
H0: Diameter = 10.0
H1: Diameter 10.0

the population is 0.3 mm

The 2-sided P-value of 2.53 is 0.01 < 0.05 =
Our conclusion
H0: MPG = 29.0
H1: MPG < 29.0

28.89 is 0.11 lower than 29.0

The test statistic is -1.39
The 1-sided P-value of -1.39 is 0.08 > 0.05 =
Our conclusion


The 1-sided P-value of 8.43 is extremely small
Our conclusion
Compare the rejection regions for the classical
approach and the P-value approach
They are the same
Classical
P-Value
Learning objectives
1

The confidence interval approach yields the
same result as the classical approach and as
the
P-value approach
We compare
A hypothesis test with a level of significance
to
A confidence interval with confidence (1 ) 100%
These are the same s
The relationship is
Not rejecting the
hypothesis
0 is inside the
Confidence interval
Rejecting the
hypothesis
0 is outside the
Confidence interval
The hypothesis test calculation and the

confidence interval calculation are very similar
H0: Diameter = 10.0
H1: Diameter 10.0

this measurement is 0.3 mm
The confidence interval is 10.12 1.96 0.047, or
10.03 to 10.21
10.0 is outside (10.03, 10.21)
Our conclusion
H0: MPG = 29.0
H1: MPG < 29.0

28.89 is 0.11 lower than 29.0
The confidence interval limit is 28.89 + 1.645 0.079,
or 29.02
29.0 is inside (, 29.02)
Our conclusion

The confidence interval limit is 1.78 1.645 0.009,
or 1.76
1.70 is outside (1.76, )
Our conclusion
Learning objectives
1

A significant statistical difference is one where
the hypothesis test, for equality, is rejected
A statistical significance does not necessarily
mean that it is practically significant
If we have a large sample size, we will be able to
pinpoint the rejectable values of the population
mean
Our analysis may be unnecessarily precise
Summary: Chapter 10 Section 2

A hypothesis test of means compares whether
the true mean is either
Equal to, or not equal to, 0
Equal to, or less than, 0
Equal to, or more than, 0
There are three equivalent methods of

performing the hypothesis test

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Chapter 10

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 1 of 55

Understand the logic of hypothesis testing

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 2 of 55

Understand the logic of hypothesis testing

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 3 of 55

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 4 of 55

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 5 of 55

The P-value approach

The confidence interval approach

Dont worry well be explaining more

The three methods all set up a criterion

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 7 of 55

The three methods all make the same

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 8 of 55

In those cases, the distribution of the sample

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 9 of 55

If the results are unlikely based on these

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 10 of 55

We reject the null hypothesis when the result is

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 11 of 55

approaches will show us how to conclude

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 12 of 55

Understand the logic of hypothesis testing

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 13 of 55

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 14 of 55

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 15 of 55

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Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 18 of 55

We take a sample of size 40

10.12 is 0.12 higher than 10.0

We take a sample of size 40

28.89 is 0.11 lower than 29.0

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 22 of 55

We take a sample of size 40

1.78 is 0.08 higher than 1.70

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 24 of 55

In units of standard deviations, this is

This is called the test statistic

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 26 of 55

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 27 of 55

Understand the logic of hypothesis testing

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 28 of 55

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 29 of 55

We then calculate the P-value, the probability

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 30 of 55

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Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 35 of 55

For example, if = 0.05

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 36 of 55

We take a sample of size 40

10.12 is 0.12 higher than 10.0

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 38 of 55

We take a sample of size 40

28.89 is 0.11 lower than 29.0

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 40 of 55

We take a sample of size 40

1.78 is 0.08 higher than 1.70

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 2 Slide 42 of 55