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Managing Risks in
Projects
Project Management for
Engineering, Business, and
Technology
Prepared by
John Nicholas, Ph.D.
Loyola University Chicago
Project Risk
Project Risk
Project Risk
Risk of involves two concepts:
Project
Internal
Technical Risk
High complexity
Low maturity
Project
Market conditions
Government mandate
Physical environment (weather, geography, etc.)
Labor and other resource availability
Project priorities
Customer/supplier relationships
Exchange rates
1. Identify Risks
Analogy
Checklists
Risk Checklist
Likelihood
(H, M or L)
Element
Ref.
Project
Management
/authority
11
The project team is inexperienced or lacking appropriate skills for the project.
12
16
17
Project
Nature
Project
Staff
The
Customer
Risk
18
The customer requirements will not be well documented.
(e.g. poor documentation increases risk of delivered product being unsatisfactory)
Third Parties
/External bodies
22
Impact
(H, M
or L)
1. Identify Risks
Analogy
Checklists
1. Identify Risks
Analogy
Checklists
SCALED,
SORT BY
POSTAGE
METERED,
PUT INTO
FOREIGN AIR
MAIL BAG
BROWN
MACHINE
STAMPS
POSTAGE
BUNDLE
QC FOR
SEAL,
ADDRESS
POSTAGE
PUT
INTO
BAGS
1 OZ OR
LESS
ALL OVER
1 OZ
SORT TO SIZE
MACHINE
STAMPS
POSTAGE
BUNDLE
QC FOR
SEAL,
ADDRESS
POSTAGE
PUT
INTO
TRAYS
HEAVY
BLDG. 231
WHITE
BROWN
HEAVY
SEALED
BY HAND
SORT
>
LB
LB
WEIGHED
SORTED INTO
1,2,4, 8 OZ.
GROUPS BY
MACHINE
PUT
INTO
TRAYS
SORT
INTO 1ST
CLASS &
AIR MAIL
METERED,
QC
CHECK
METERED,
QC CHECK
PUT INTO
BAGS
SORT INTO
POST
OFFICE
BAGS
AIR
MAIL
AIR MAIL
AFTER
6:30 PM ?
NO
OHARE
FIRST CLASS
CHECK
WEIGHT
BLDG. 200
SORT TO SIZE
AIR MAIL 1
OZ OR
LESS
AIR MAIL
U.S. POST
YES
OFFICE
US MESSENGER PICK
UP
1. Identify risks
Brainstorming
Delphi Technique
Cause-Effect analysis
Causes
Risk sources
and hazards
Example, next slide
Effect
Outcomes,
Consequences
PEOPLE
Key staff may be
out of action
Material may be
off-spec
Manufacture may not
correspond with
design
Staff productivity
may be lower
than planned
External agencies
may delay
Procurement procedures
may be ineffective
Design may have to
be re-engineered
Design specs may be
changed
Design may not meet
standards
FUNCTIONS
Import taxes
may be raised
Fabricator may
go bankrupt
Cash flow may not
be sufficient to pay
bills
MONEY
PRODUCT
DELIVERED
LATE
Probability, expressed as
Impact, expressed as
Example
RC = 0.75 x 5 = 3.75
Likelihood
(H, M or L)
Element
Ref.
Project
Management
/authority
Project
Nature
Project
Staff
The
Customer
Third Parties
/External bodies
Risk
11
The project team is inexperienced or lacking appropriate skills for the project.
12
The project team will be expected to support end-users after project completion.
( ongoing support = low risk, no support project beyond closure = high risk)
16
17
18
22
Impact
(H, M or
L)
Probability
VH
H
M
L
VL
Impact
VL
M
L
L
L
L
L
M
M
L
L
L
M
H
M
M
L
L
H
H
H
M
M
L
VH
H
H
H
M
M
RC = L x H = M (according to table)
Insurance
Response
Create a risk log or risk register; risks are
rank ordered, greatest risk consequence first.
11
Application
Development
75%
375
Technical
Infrastructure
90%
360
28
Technical
Infrastructure
70%
350
22
Application
Development
75%
300
Application
Development
75%
300
Difficulty in establishing
remaining first site clients.
Would force a change in
migration strategy.
27
Application
Development
70%
280
Schedule delays.
10
Application
Development
70%
280
Difficulty in establishing
remaining clients, on first site
chosen, on the ClearPath.
Application
Development
65%
260
Exposur
e
Preventive
action to reduce
risk
Probabilit
y
Effect:
Consequences if
risk occurs
Impact
Functional
area
impacted
Item
No.
Risk Profile
Risk Officer
http://nodis3.gsfc.nasa.gov/displayDir.cfm?Internal_ID=N_P
R_8000_0004_&page_name=main
Criticality Index =
f{P(tiles lost from debris or weak bonding),
P(adjacent tiles lost),
P(burn-through given tiles lost),
P(failure of subsystems given burn-through),
P(LOV/C given failure of subsystem)}
NASAs
Management of
Contracts
Technical Pay
Scale
Hiring, Training and
Retention of Tile
Technicians
High
Visibility
Illusion of Routine
and Low Risk
NASA funding
Mechanism
Schedule
Pressures
Degree of
Cooperation
among
Contractors
NASAs Fragmentation
and Competition among
Centers
In Flight Tile
Fixing Capability
Management of
Launch Operations
Nondestructive Bond
Testing
Management of ET
and SRBs
Priorities in Tile
Maintenance
Inspection of
Technicians Work
Quality of
Tile Bonding
Deciding Clearing
Of Launch
Pads
Design and
Application of
ET/SRBs
Insulate
Reentry
Maneuver
Fixing of
Tiles in
Orbit
Quality of Step
and Gap
Measurements
Modification
Of Current
Designs
RISK ANALYSIS
MODEL
Debonding Caused
By Factors Other than
Debris
Debris Damage
Loss of tile
Reentry Heating
Loss of Additional Titles
Subsystem
Malfunction
Loss of Shuttle