CHAPTER 6: PROBABILITY

CHAPTER 7: PROBABILITY &

SAMPLE
THE DISTRIBUTION OF
SAMPLE MEANS
GROUP 4:
MUHAMMAD KHAIRUNNAS HAMZAH
GS45566
NOOR SUHAILY BIN ALI @ MOHD NOR GS40376
SELVAMANI A/L SUBRAMANIAM
GS44503
MOHAMAD HAFIZ BIN SIADEDH
GS44338
LECTURER: ASSOC. PROF DR. AMINUDDIN
HASSAN

CHAPTER 6:
PROBABILITY
6.1 - Introduction to Probability
6.2 - Probability and the normal distribution
6.3 Probability and Proportions for Scores
from a Normal Distributions
6.4 Looking Ahead to Inferential Statistics

6.1 INTRODUCTION OF
PROBABILITY
Research begins with a question about an
entire population.
Actual research is conducted using a sample.
Inferential statistics use sample data to
answer questions about the population
Relationships between samples and
populations are defined in terms of probability

Definition of Probability
- The probability of any specific
outcome is a fraction or
proportion of all possible
outcomes

Example:
Select a card from complete deck,
there are 52 possible outcomes. The
probability of selecting:
King of hearts, p = 1
52
Aces, p = 4
52

Probability values
The probability values obtain are
expressed as fractions:
p(spade) = 13 = 1
52
4
Fraction also can be expressed as
eithers decimals or percentages:
P =

= 0.25 = 25%
4

 Notationally, the probability of event

A is represented by P(A).
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.

If P(A) = 0, event A will almost definitely

not occur
If P(A) close to 0, small chance event A
will occur
If P(A) = 0.5, there 50-50 chance event A
will occur
If P(A) close to 1, strong chance event A
will occur
If P(A) = 1, event A will almost definitely
occur

Random Sampling
Require that each individual has an
equal chance of being selected and
that the probability of being selected
stays constant from one selection to
the next if more than one individual
is selected.
A sample produced by this technique
is known as random sample

Requirement for random

sampling
1. There is no bias in the selection process
- For population with N individuals, each
individuals must have the same probability,
p = 1 , of being selected.
N
- Eg: You would not get random sample of
college students by selecting individuals
from your psychology class.

- Prohibits from applying the definition of

probability to situations in which the
possible
outcomes are not equally likely:
- Eg: Winning a million dollars in lottery
tomorrow.
1. Will win
2. Will not win

2. Sample with replacement

- To keep the probability from
changing from
one selection to the next, it
necessary to
return each individual to the
population
before you make next selection.
- This process called sampling with
replacement

Probability and Frequency

Distributions
Probability usually involves population
of scores that can be displayed in a
frequency distribution graph
Different portions of the graph
represent portions of the population
Proportions and probabilities are
equivalent
A particular portion of the graph
corresponds to a particular probability
in the population

Example:
N = 10 scores, with value 1,1,2,3,3,4,4,4,5,6
n = 1 scores from population

FIGURE 1

What is probability score greater

than 4?

6.2 PROBABILITY AND NORMAL

DISTRIBUTION
Normal distribution is a common shape
Symmetrical
Highest frequency in the middle
Frequencies taper off towards the
extremes

Defined by an equation
Can be described by the proportions of
area contained in each section.
z-scores are used to identify section

Normal distribution with z-score

FIGURE 2

 The Figure 2 show the percentage of

scores that fall in each of these sections
for a normal distributions.
For example: the section between mean
(z=0) and the point that is 1 standard
deviation above the mean (z=1) contains
34.13% of the scores. 13.59% of scores
located in section between 1 and 2
standard deviation above the mean.
The percentage apply to any normal
distributions regardless of the values for
the mean and the standard deviation.

Characteristics of Normal
Distribution
Sections on the left side of the
distribution have the same area as
corresponding sections on the right
Because z-scores define the sections,
the proportions of area apply to any
normal distribution
Regardless of the mean
Regardless of the standard deviation

Example
Population of SAT scores is normal with:
= 500 , = 100. What is probability has a
SAT greater than 700? p(X > 700) = ?
1. Identify z-score X = 700
z = X = 700 500 = 200 = 2.00

100
100
SAT score X = 700 is 2 standard deviation
above the mean, z = +2.00

2. Determine p (z > 2.00) = ?

According to Figure 2;
2.28% of the scores in tail beyond z =
+2.00
Thus, population of SAT scores,
p( x> 700) = p( z > 2.00) = 2.28%

The Unit Normal Table

The proportion for only a few zscores can be shown graphically
The complete listing of z-scores and
proportions is provided in the unit
normal table

The Portion Unit Normal

Table
Column A
Z-score

Column B
Proportion in body
(larger part of
distribution

Column C
Proportion in Tail
(smaller part of
distribution

Column D
Proportion between
mean and z-score

Proportions corresponding to z =
0.25

Probability/Proportion &
z-scores
Unit normal table lists relationships
between z-score locations and
proportions in a normal distribution
If you know the z-score, you can look
up
the corresponding proportion
If you know the proportion, you can
use the table to find a specific zscore location
Probability is equivalent to proportion

6.3
Probabilities/Proportions
For Normally Distributed
Scores
The probabilities given in the unit normal

table will be accurate only for normally

distributed scores so the shape of the
distribution should be verified before using it.
For normally distributed scores

Transform the X scores (values) into z-scores

Look up the proportions corresponding to the zscores values.

Percentile Ranks
Percentile rank is the percentage of
individuals in the distributions who
have scores that are less than or
equal to the specific score.
Probability questions can be
rephrased as percentile rank
questions.

6.4 Looking Ahead To

Inferential Statistics
Many research situations begin with a
population
that
forms
a
normal
distribution.
A random sample is selected and receives
a treatment, to evaluate the treatment.
Probability is used to decide whether the
treated sample is noticeably different
from the population.

CHAPTER 7
PROBABILITY AND SAMPLES:
THE DISTRIBUTION OF SAMPLE MEANS

7.1 Sample and Populations

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means
7.3 Probability and The Distribution of
Sample Means
7.4 More About Standard Error
7.5 Looking Ahead to Inferential Statistics

7.1 Samples and Population

Population

Sample

7.1 Samples and Population

Populati
on

Sample

Paramete
r

Variable

Keseluruh
an

Kualiti
yang
berlainan

Objek
penelitian

Nilai yang
berlainan

7.1 Samples and Population

Bagaimana
Sampel
menerangkan @
mewakili
populasi?
Sampel yang
mana
memberikan
penerangan
yang tepat
tentang
populasi?

Apakah
Kebarangkaian
memilih sampel
yang sesuai?

7.1 Samples and Population

Jawapannya:

7.2
Distribution
of Sample
Mean

7.1 Samples and Population

Perlu
memilih
sampel
yang
sesuai,
kalau
tidak

Sampling
Error
Ralat Sampel
Ralat yang ketara antara statistik
sampel dengan parameter populasi
Is the natural discrepancy or
amount of error, between a sample
statistic and its corresponding
population parameter.

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means

Berkeupayaan untuk membuat anggaran ciri-ciri sampel
yang dipilih berdasarkan

Distribution of Sample
Means

Is the collection of sample means for all of the possible

random sample of particular size (n) that can be obtained
from a population.

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means

The
Distributi
on of
Sample
means

Jika jumlah keseluruhan sample adalah

100, maka kebarangkalian memilih
specific sampel adalah 1 daripada 100
( p= 1/100)
Nilai distribution adalah bukan score
tetapi statistik (Sample Mean)

Maka, Distrubution of statistics

dikenali sebagai Sampeling
Distribution.

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means

Is a distribution of statistics obtained by selecting all of the

possible sample of specific size from population.

Sample Distribution
Maksudnya Distribution of sample mean adalah contoh
kepada sampling distribution yang dikenali sebagai
sampling distribution of M

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means

Pilih sampel secara

rawak (n) dari populasi
Kirakan purata
sampel (Sample
Mean)
Letakkan purata sampel
dalam frequency
distribution
Pilih sampel yang lain
secara rawak yang skornya
yang sama
Kirakan lagi purata
sampel

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means

Contohn
ya
Suatu populasi terdiri dari empat hasil pengukuran :

3 6 7 10
dari populasi ini hendak digunakan 2 hasil pengukuran sebagai
sampel, distribusi mean-mean sampling (sampling distribution of the
means).
Kemungkinan sampel :
[3; 6] [3; 7] [3; 10] [6; 7] [6; 10] [7; 10]
Maka, mean sampel yang terbentuk :
4.5 5 6.5 6.5 8 8.5
Sehingga distribusi mean sampling dari sampel-sampel yang
terbentuk :
Mean
4,5
5
6,5
8
8,5
sampel
Frekuensi

Probabilita
s

1/6

1/6

2/6

1/6

1/6

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means

Samp
le
mean
s

Sampel mewakili populasi, maka

sample mean mesti padan dengan
population mean
The pile of sample means mesti
menunjukkan dalam bentuk normal
shaped distribution
Lagi besar sampel saiz, lagi tepat
sample mean yang mewakili
population mean.

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means

For any population with mean

and standarddeviation
, the distribution of sample means for sample size n, will have

mean of
and a standard deviation of
and will
approach a normal ndistribution as n approaches infinity.

The Central Limit Theorem

Maksudnya populasi nilai yang sangat besar , memerlukan nilai
sampel yang sangat banyak. (tidak sesuai kira satu persatu)
Maka formula Central Limit Theoram memudahkan pengiraan
sample mean dengan tepat.

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means

Distributio
n of
sample
mean yang
mementing
kan
normal
distributio
n

The
Central
Limit
Theorm

Distribution
of sample
mean untuk
mana-mana
populasi tidak
kira bentuk,
purata dan
piawaian

Shape

Central Variabilit
Tendency
y

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means

Sha
pe

Purata sampel
padan dengan
purata populasi
Dikenali sebagai
Expected Value
of M

Pemilihan sampel
berdasarkan Normal
Distribution
Nilai skor setiap sampel
melebihi 30

Cent
ral
Tend
anc
y

Vari
abili
ty

Standard Error of M
Law of Large
Numbers

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means

Distribusi X jika n >
30
Distribusi Populasi
(Bukan Normal
Distribution)

Distribusi X jika n <

30

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means

Standard Error

Semakin banyak saiz sampel

semakin rendah standard
error

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means

Tahap Ralat (Standard Error)

Ukuran Sampel (Number of score in Sample)

7.2 The Distribution of Sample Means

Three Different
Distribution
Selected from
population (few
people
represent the
entire
population

Original
population
have own
shape, mean
and standard
deviation
(Large Group)

Theoretical
Distribution
from possible
random
samples of
specific size

7.3 Probability and the Distribution of

Sample Means

Primary use of the distribution of

sample means is to find the
probability associated with any
particular sample (sample mean)
Proportions of the normal curve are
used to represent probabilities
A z-score for the sample mean is
computed

Distribution of Sample Means for n = 25

A z-Score for Sample

Means
Sign tells whether the location is
above (+) or below (-) the mean
Number tells the distance between
the location and the mean in
standard deviation (standard error)
M
units
z-formula:

Middle 80% of the Distribution of Sample Means

7.4 More about

Standard Error
There will usually be discrepancy
between a sample mean and the true
population mean
This discrepancy is called sampling
error
The amount of sampling error varies
across samples
The variability of sampling error is
measured by the standard error of

Example of typical distribution of sample means

Distribution of Sample Means when n = 1, 4,

and 100

In the Literature
Journals vary in how they refer to the
standard error but frequently use:
SE
SEM

Often reported in a table along with n

and M for the different groups in the
experiment
May also be added to a graph

Mean (1 SE) in Bar Chart

Mean (1 SE) in Line Graph

7.5 Looking Ahead to Inferential

Statistics

Inferential statistics use sample data

to draw general conclusions about
populations
Sample information is not a perfectly
accurate reflection of its population
(sampling error)
Differences between sample and
population introduce uncertainty into
inferential processes

Statistical techniques use

Conceptualization of research study

Untreated Sample Means

Sketches of Distribution