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Management
Questions to be answered:
What do we mean by risk aversion and what evidence
indicates that investors are generally risk averse?
What are the basic assumptions behind the Markowitz
portfolio theory?
What is meant by risk and what are some of the alternative
measures of risk used in investments?
How do you compute the expected rate of return for an
individual risky asset or a portfolio of assets?
How do you compute the standard deviation of rates of return
for an individual risky asset?
What is meant by the covariance between rates of return and
how do you compute covariance?
Background Assumptions
As
Risk Aversion
Risk preference may have to do with amount of money involved risking small amounts, but insuring large losses
Quantifies risk
Derives the expected rate of return for a portfolio of
assets and an expected risk measure
Shows that the variance of the rate of return is a
meaningful measure of portfolio risk
Derives the formula for computing the variance of a
portfolio, showing how to effectively diversify a portfolio
2.
3.
4.
5.
Probability
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
Possible Rate of
Return (Percent)
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
Expected Return
(Percent)
0.0200
0.0250
0.0300
0.0350
E(R) = 0.1100
Exhibit 7.2
Weight (Wi )
(Percent of Portfolio)
Expected Security
Return (R i )
0.20
0.30
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.13
Expected Portfolio
Return (Wi X Ri )
0.0200
0.0330
0.0360
0.0260
E(Rpor i) = 0.1150
E(R por i ) Wi R i
i 1
where :
Wi the percent of the portfolio in asset i
E(R i ) the expected rate of return for asset i
Variance ( 2 ) [R i - E(R i )] 2 Pi
i 1
Expected
Return E(Ri )
Ri - E(R i )
[Ri - E(Ri )]
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.0009
0.0001
0.0001
0.0009
Variance ( 2) = .0050
Standard Deviation ( ) = .02236
Pi
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
[Ri - E(Ri )] Pi
0.000225
0.000025
0.000025
0.000225
0.000500
Closing
Price
Dividend
Return (%)
60.938
58.000
-4.82%
53.030
-8.57%
45.160
0.18
-14.50%
46.190
2.28%
47.400
2.62%
45.000
0.18
-4.68%
44.600
-0.89%
48.670
9.13%
46.850
0.18
-3.37%
47.880
2.20%
46.960
0.18
-1.55%
47.150
0.40%
E(RCoca-Cola)= -1.81%
Closing
Price
45.688
48.200
5.50%
42.500
-11.83%
43.100
0.04
1.51%
47.100
9.28%
49.290
4.65%
47.240
0.04
-4.08%
50.370
6.63%
45.950
0.04
-8.70%
38.370
-16.50%
38.230
-0.36%
46.650
0.05
22.16%
51.010
9.35%
E(Rhome
E(RExxon)=
Depot)= 1.47%
Covariance of Returns
rij
Cov ij
where :
rij the correlation coefficient of returns
Correlation Coefficient
w
i 1
2
i
2
i
w i w j Cov ij
i 1 i 1
where :
Asset
E(R i )
Wi
.10
.50
.0049
.07
.20
.50
.0100
.10
Case
a
b
c
d
e
Correlation Coefficient
+1.00
+0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
Covariance
.0070
.0035
.0000
-.0035
-.0070
Asset
1
2
E(R i )
.10
.20
r ij = 0.00
2
Rij = +1.00
1
0.05
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12
f
With uncorrelated
assets it is possible
to create a two asset
portfolio with lower
risk than either single
asset
j
k
Rij = +1.00
1
Rij = 0.00
0.05
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12
f
g
With correlated
h
assets it is possible
i
j
to create a two
Rij = +1.00
asset portfolio
k
Rij = +0.50
between the first
1
two curves
Rij = 0.00
0.05
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12
Rij = -0.50
j
k
f
2
Rij = +1.00
Rij = +0.50
1
Rij = 0.00
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12
Rij = -1.00
Rij = -0.50
0.15
0.10
0.05
-
f
2
Rij = +1.00
Rij = +0.50
1
Rij = 0.00
With perfectly negatively correlated
assets it is possible to create a two asset
portfolio with almost no risk
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12
Estimation Issues
Expected returns
Standard deviation
Correlation coefficient
Estimation Issues
R i a i bi R m i
bi = the slope coefficient that relates the returns for security i to
the returns for the aggregate stock market
Rm = the returns for the aggregate stock market
Estimation Issues
If all the securities are similarly related to the
market and a bi derived for each one, it can be
shown that the correlation coefficient between two
securities i and j is given as:
m2
rij b i b j
i j
where m2 the variance of returns for the
aggregate stock market
Exceptions being the asset with the highest return and the
asset with the lowest risk
E(R)
Efficient
Frontier
An individual investors utility curve specifies the tradeoffs he is willing to make between expected return and
risk
The slope of the efficient frontier curve decreases
steadily as you move upward
These two interactions will determine the particular
portfolio selected by an individual investor
The optimal portfolio has the highest utility for a given
investor
It lies at the point of tangency between the efficient
frontier and the utility curve with the highest possible
utility
E(R port )
U3
U2
U1
Y
U3
U2
X
U1
E( port )