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1. INTRODUCTION
Measuring and forecasting growth and the factors that contribute to growth are
important in valuation and portfolio management.
Forecasting growth requires understanding the drivers to an economys growth.
The focus of economic growth is on the long-term trend in aggregate output.
Limiting Growth
Favoring
Growth
Low rate
High rate
Financial markets
Poorly developed
Well developed
Legal system
Corrupt or weak
Well developed
Property rights
Lacking
Well defined
Poor
Good
Restrictive
Open
Advanced Economies
Developing Countries
Argentina
Botswana
Brazil
China
Ethiopia
Germany
Hong Kong
India
Japan
Mexico
Singapore
United States
Vietnam
2%
4%
18%
19711980
20012010
- Real earnings growth cannot exceed the growth rate of potential GDP.
- Relationship ( is earnings):
Examining changes over time:
Note: The percentage change in earnings share of GDP is approximately zero over the
long term.
(11-2)
which means that the output (the quantity produced) is a function of the inputs
capital (K) and labor (L) and the marginal product of capital is the ratio of
capital income to output (that is, GDP).
1. Constant returns to scale (increasing input increases output)
2. Diminishing marginal productivity for each input
Increase
in TFP
g
Capital deepenin
GROWTH ACCOUNTING
If is the elasticity of output with respect to capital, the growth accounting
equation is
Y/Y
Growth
rate of
output
A/A
Rate of
technological
change
K/K
Growth
rate of
capital
(1 )
L/L
Growth
rate of
labor
We can use this equation to estimate potential GDP, using trends of labor and
capital and estimating the elasticity, , as 1 minus the labor share of GDP.
An alternative is the labor productivity growth accounting equation:
10
11
12
13
5. THEORIES OF GROWTH
Classical Model
(Mathusian theory)
Adopting new
technology results in a
larger population, but
not a greater standard
of living.
There is no growth per
capita output.
Neoclassical Model
(Solow model)
Endogenous Growth
Theory
14
15
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Argentina
Botswana
Brazil
China
Ethiopia
Germany
Hong Kong
1950
1970
1990
2010
India
Japan
Mexico
Singapore
United States
Vietnam
16
17
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
GROWTH AND INCOME
6%
Average
Annual Growth
Rate in
5%
Real GDP
China
4%
3%
France
2%
1%
0%
$0
US
Kenya
Venezuela
$2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000$12,000$14,000$16,000
Per Capita Income in USD
18
19
Physical stock of
developing countries
grows.
Developing countries
run a trade deficit.
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21
22
23
24
25
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