Hydroinformatics in Transition, UNESCO-IHE, May 2008

Whole System Modelling

- the Future of Hydroinformatics
Professor Ian Cluckie

Water and Environmental Management Research Centre (WEMRC)

University of Bristol

A General Scenario
Water Resources
Applications

Coupled
Ocean-Atmosphere
Models

Mesoscale
Models
E
P
Qs

Ss
Ig

Sg

SVATs

Sorooshian, HEPEX,
2004

Qg

Hydrologic/Routing
Models

- Sunday Times magazine

11.3.2007

The other
type of
flooding
If the Greenland
ice sheet were to
melt it would
raise global sea
levels by around
7m. Met Office
(2006)

Climate Change Impact

BOSCASTLE FLASH FLOOD

BOSCASTLE FLASH FLOOD

Configuration for NWP

MM5 V3 comes with
mature code to deal with
mesoscale dynamics

Configured to run on
PC/LINUX
cluster
to
produce
5Km
weather
prediction over the UK
domain. (higher resolution
possible)

Potential to conduct
ensemble
run
with
powerful HPC facility

Domain 1

Domai n 2
Domain 3

Domain 4

Why Gridmatching?
Projection

mismatch for two

systems
Areas covered
are not the same

MM5 Forecast

Nimrod Forecast

Nimrod Actuals

Changes in Height of 50 year

Storm Surge
Sea levels set to rise
by 10 cm this century

Changes in storm
surges also important,
very
dependent
on
change in circulation
pattern

Changes
in
circulation
are
very
uncertain
More detailed work
required
to
provide
reliable information

Climate Change Impact

Surge Ensemble Mean

(contours) and Spread

Crown

Thames Tidal Barrier

The Storm from Hell! > 1000yr

54x54km

6x6k
m

18x18km

2x2km

Enhanced Ensemble
Water Levels at
Sheerness

Mike 11 simulation close to high tide at the barrier

Inundation Map for Extreme

Event

Source: FRMRC Co-location Workshop 2006

Inundation for Extreme Event

Source: FRMRC Co-location Workshop 2006

Weather Radar Animation 20 July

Photo by David Hughes http://news.bbc.co.uk 23.7.07

Floods in Lower Severn

July 20, 2007

Tewkesbury
Sunday 22 July 2007
http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire

Picture source: http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk

Walham Switching
Station, near
Gloucester, serving
500,000 people.

Picture source: http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk

Ensemble Prediction
of Inundation Risk
and Uncertainty Arising
from Scour
(EPIRUS)
NERC FREE PROGRAM

Tide, Surge & Wave

Modelling Framework
Meteorological
Models

Tide, Surge
and Wave
Models

Surf Zone
Models

Continental Model
WAM
[Grid size ~ 12km]

Regional Model
POLCOMS
[Grid size ~1.8km]

Coastal Zone Model

COAST2D
[Grid size ~250m]

Extreme Surges in the Southern

North Sea: The Events of 1953
Could a larger
surge occur at
high water?
Port

HW

HAT 2015
wrt ODN

1953 surge
at local HW

Total
ODN

Sheerness

13.0
0

3.41

1.86

5.27

Woolwich

14.0
0

3.91

1.86

5.77

Height of Thames Barrier is 6.9 m aODN

Defra/EA, TE2100 Phase 2

The Great
Storm
1987 MM5

Rainfall
and

20 July 2007 Storm 10 MM5 ensembles + control

Local POL models for the Bristol

Channel and Severn Estuary

Tidal Current Modelling

Without Barrage

With Barrage

Mean Flood - Spring Tide

Source: Falconer, HRC, Cardiff

Coastal Zone Model

COAST2D

Regional
Models

WPA option

COAST2D

Hydrodynamic
Module

Waves
IWP option

Currents

Morphological
Module

wave diffraction
wave refraction
bottom diffusion
wave breaking

wave reflection

Transport
Module

Surf Zone
Models

Source: Reeve, Plymouth

QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.

Source: Reeve, Plymouth

SW Floods
October 2000

I Hope
You
Enjoyed
the Talk