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Disruptions

Eruptions
Corruptions
Michael P Totten
Presentation CYA, Jan. 28, 2016

Dedicated to the Inspirations

two granddaughters Adelaide and Brenna, and Goddaughter H

delaide Stout-Greenbaum
2014 -

Brenna Lavelle
2003 -

Hiliary Green
1991-2013

Eruptions

Humans release CO2 emissions every 10 hours


equal to the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption,
Philippines, 1991
BAU = 90,000 eruptions in 21st Century

$3.3 Trillion per year in 2050 global


warming costs to the world due just
US Geological Survey, Volcanoes, https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php
to U.S. emissions.

Eruptions

nalities Defined as Private Gain, Public


Lung of LA Teenage
NONsmoker in 1970s;
Most Big Cities of the
World Today
COST to LIVES JUST IN USA:
62,000 U.S. air pollution
premature mortalities per
year today.
$600 Billion per year (2013
dollars) in 2050, equal to
3.6 % of 2014 U.S. Gross

Corruptions
Political
Power

Corporate
Greed

Media Lies &


Disinformation

Corruptions

Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies 2011-201


IMF $5.5 Trillion/yr Assessment May 2015

Disruptions

Law of Accelerating Returns


Information Technologies (of all kinds)
double their power (price performance,
capacity, bandwidth) every year -L o g a rit h m ic +P l o t

L o g a rit h m ic +P l o t

L o g a r it h m ic +P l o t

L o g a r it h m ic +P l o t

16

D y n a m ic R A M M e m o r y H a lf P it c h F e a t u r e S iz e

5 .4 y e a rs

D y n a m ic R A M M e m o r y (b it s p e r d o lla r )

1 .5 y e a rs

A v e r a g e Tr a n s is t o r P ric e

1 .6 y e a rs

M ic r o p r o c e s s o r C o s t p e r T r a n s is t o r C y c le

1 .1 y e a rs

To t a l B it s S h ip p e d

1 .1 y e a rs

P r o c e s s o r P e r fo r m a n c e in M IP S

1 .8 y e a rs

T r a n s is t o r s in In t e l M ic r o p r o c e s s o r s

2 .0 y e a rs

M ic ro p r o c e s s o r C lo c k S p e e d

2 .7 y e a rs

Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw

Law of Accelerating Returns


Every form of communications technology is
doubling price-performance, bandwidth,
capacity every 12 months
M o o r e s )L a w )is )o n ly )o n e )e x a m p le

L o g a r it h m ic +P lo t

E x p o n e n t ia l)G r o w t h )o f )C o m p u t in g )f o r )1 1 0 )Y e a r s )
M o o r e 's )L a w )w a s )t h e )fi f t h , )n o t )t h e )fi r s t ,)
p a r a d ig m )t o )b r in g )e x p o n e n t ia l)g r o w t h )in )c o m p u t in g
L o g a rit h m ic +P lo t

L o g a r it h m ic +P l o t

L o g a r it h m ic +P l o t

Year
Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw

15

Law of Accelerating Returns


Miniaturization:
another exponential trend

Wireless smart
sensor networks

Trillion$ Valuable
Smartphone

NANO technology
engineering & Mfg

Ray Kurzweil
Exponential Finance
J uly, 2014

http://www.ted.com/talks/
ray_kurzweil_on_how_technology_will_transform_us?language=en

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnyQWr8hk0A

Law of Accelerating Returns


COllaborative
P r o l i f e r a ti o n oIntellig
f O p e nence/Innovation
S o u r c e C O IN s
Networks
C o l l a b o r a ti(COINs)
v e In te l l ianother
g e n c e /In nexponential
o v a ti o n N e tw otrend
rk s
W ik i p e d i a , th e w o r l d s l a r g e s t a n d f a s te s t g r o w i n g
e n c y c lo p e d ia , p r e m ie r e x a m p le o f a n o p e n s o u r c e
C O IN to d a te . It i s o n e o f th e to p 5 to 7 d a i l y
v is i te d In te r n e t s i te s i n th e w o r l d (m o n th l y
r e a d e r s h i p o f ~ 5 0 0 m i l l i o n w o r l d w i d e ).
3 4 m i l l i o n f r e e u s a b l e a r ti c l e s i n 2 8 8 l a n g u a g e s
th a t h a v e b e e n w r i tte n b y o v e r 5 0 m i l li o n
r e g i s te r e d u s e r s a n d n u m e r o u s a n o n y m o u s
c o n tr i b u to r s w o r l d w i d e .
1 5 ,0 0 0 v o l u m e s e q u i v a l e n t to E n c y c l o p e d i a
B r i ta n n i c a .
1 0 0 m i l l io n h o u r s to c r e a te W ik i p e d i a o v e r th e
fi r s t d e c a d e . B y c o m p a r i s o n , A m e r ic a n s s p e n d
1 3 2 m i l l io n h o u r s e a c h d a y o n F a c e b o o k (4 3 0
m i l li o n h o u r s e a c h d a y w o r l d w i d e ); a n d
A m e r i c a n s w a tc h 1 0 0 m i l l io n h o u r s o f T V a d s
e v e ry w e e k e n d .
T h e r e a r e th o u s a n d s o f o p e n s o u r c e C O IN s
c u r r e n tl y o p e r a ti n g

20th Century
Organizations

Ray Kurzweil, Kurzweilai.net, presentation at Google, 2009

21st Century
Organizations

Two Explosive Exponential Trends driving


IP addressable Internet of Everything (IoE)

s ) V is io n s

Machine-to-Machine (M2M)

People Online (billions)


4.5
4
3.5

People Online
Smartphones

2.5

w
t

2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1995

2000

2014

2020

Source: Benedict Evans, Industrial Internet,11-2014, Partner, AndreesenHorowitz; and, B. Evans, Mobile Is Eating the World, May 2013

(Left) Road Map for the Trillion Sensor Universe, 11/2013, Janusz Bryzek,VP,
MEMS and Sensing Solutions, Fairchild Semiconductor

Personal Pocket
SuperComputers

SuperComputer
Networkers

Human & Knowledge


Capital

Social, Civic & Intelligence


Capital

C a ta ly z in g C o lla b o r a tiv e In n o v a tio n N e tw o r k s

b e y o n d z e ro n e t

D a y lig h tin g

F IT s

H VA C

LEDs

M OOCs

A P PC hsilleMr s o to r s

B u ild in g s

S o la r th e r m a l

geot h er m a l

b io

d e c o u p lin g +

in c e n tiv e s g e o s p a t i a l m a p p i n g
P u m p s /C o m p r e s sa ogr sg r e g a t i o nM o b

ility

s o la r g a r d e n s W a te r s m a r t s e n s o r n e tw o r k s
P lu g lo a d s
i n t e g r a t i o n z e r o w a s te b i k e s
c o m p l e t e s t r e e t sL a n d s c a p in g e p e a t E V s
p e ceor -dtoe s- p e e r
S o la r P Vm ic r o g r id s w i n d
A lb ed o s u r f a c es

L E E D ++

csotallan bd oa rradtis o n in n o v a ti o n n e tw o r k s

A r c h ite c tu r e
v is u a liz a t io n

F in a n cc oinn sge rWv aint ido on w1 s0 x E

p ro cu rem ent

COIN Ad hoc selforganized groups of


self-motivated citizens,
geographically
dispersed, focused on
accomplishing a
specific mission

millions

APP Use Growing Exponentially

http://www.statista.com/statistics/266488/forecast-of-mobile-app-downloads/

Making Smarter & Integrated Sectors


Grids+Vehicles+Buildings+Industries

The Next Industrial Revolution

SOLAR & WIND


POWER
90% Global Total
Energy Services

A n n u a l g lo b a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p ti o n b y h u m a n s
O il
G as

1(
Nme(
use(

C oal

SO LA R P H O T O N S
A C C R U E D IN A M O N T H
E X C E E D T H E E A R T H S
FO SSIL FU E L R E SE R V E S

A N N U A L W in d

U r a n iu m

H y d ro

A N N U A L S o la r E n e r g y
P h o to s y n th e s is
S o u r c e : In t e r n a t io n a l E n e r g y A g e n c y , E n e r g y T e c h n o lo g y P e r s p e c tiv e s , 2 0 0 8 , p . 3 6 6 . T h e f ig u r e is b a s e d o n N a t io n a l
P e t r o le u m C o u n c il, 2 0 0 7 a f te r C r a ig , C u n n in g h a m a n d S a ig o .

In th e U SA , citie s a n d re sid e n c e s c o v e r 5 6 m illio n h e c ta re s.


E v e ry k W h o f c u rre n t U .S. e n e rgy re q u ire m e n ts ca n b e m e t sim p ly b y
a p p ly in g p h o to v o lta ics (P V ) to 15%
7 % 'o f e x istin g u rb a n a re a
o n ro o fs, p a rk in g lo ts, a clo n g h igh w a y w a lls, o n sid e s o f b u ild in gs, a n d
in d u a l-u se s. aR e q u ire s 9 3 % le ss w a te r th a n fo ssil fu e ls .
E x p e rts s y w e w o u ld n t ph v e to a p r o p ria te a sin glee a r e o f n w
la n d to m a k e P V o u r p rim a r y e n e rgy so u rc e !

U.S.'Wind'Power'LCOE'PPA'in'2013'2.5/kWh'
th a t th e tu rb in e s c a lin g a n d o th e r im p ro v e m e n ts to tu rb in e e ffic ie n c y d e s c rib e d in C h a p te r 4 h a v e
m o r e t h a n Global'Wind'Power'L
o v e rc o m e th e s e h e a d w in d s to h e lp d riv e C
P P OE'in'2013'6.5/kWh''
A p ric e s lo w e r.

6/kWh(
4/kWh(
2/kWh(

S o u r c e : B e r k e le y L a b

Figu re 4 6 . G e n e ra tio n -w e igh te d a v e ra ge le v e lize d w in d P P A p ric e s b y P P A e x e c u tio n d a te a n d re gio n

LCOE=Levelized(Cost(of(Electricity(

PPA=Power(Purchase(Agreement(

F ig u re 4 6 a ls o s h o w s tre n d s in th e g e n e ra tio n -w e ig h te d a v e ra g e le v e liz e d P P A p ric e o v e r tim e


a m o n g fo u r o f th e fiv e re g io n s b ro k e n o u t in F ig u re 3 0 (th e S o u th e a s t re g io n is o m itte d fro m
Ryan(Wiser(&(Mark(Bollinger,(2013(Wind(Technologies(Market(Report,(Lawrence(Berkeley,(August(2014(
F ig u re 4 6 o w in g to its s m a ll s a m p le s iz e ). F ig u re s 4 5 a n d 4 6 b o th d e m o n s tra te th a t, b a s e d o n o u r
d a ta s a m p le , P P A p r ic e s a r e g e n e r a lly lo w in th e U .S . I n te r io r, h ig h in th e W e s t, a n d in th e

Entire State of Calif


Community College
System BIG BIM
CLOUD COMUTING
!

71 Million ft2

2.75 Million
Students

112 California
locations

5,000 bldgs

Largest System Public Higher Education in World

IEA: World needs $48 TRILLION in


investment
to meet its energy needs to 2035

WHY $23 TRILLION for fossil


fuels ??
$1.7 Trillion for nuclear
But only
$1.7 Trillion for Solar PV
$3.0 Trillion for Wind

https://www.iea.org/publications
/freepublications/publication/we
o-2014-special-report--investment.html

on-Delucchi 100% WWS Energy System b

Jacobson, Mark and Mark Delucchi et al., 100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector
energy roadmaps for the 50 United States, Journal of Energy & Environmental Science, May 17, 2015, Royal
Society of Chemistry, https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html

http://thesolutionsproject.org/
http://100.org
www.go100re.net

Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
WWS World

Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight,
AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,

Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
WWS World

Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight,
AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,

Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
WWS World

Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight,
AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,

The Solutions Project,

JacobsonDelucchi
100%
WWS
California

Mark Jacobson, Powering


Countries, States, and the
World With Wind, Water, and
Sunlight, AAAS Annual
Meeting, February 15, 2014,
http://web.stanford.edu/group/
efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-5

Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
WWS Calif.

Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight,
AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,

Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
WWS

Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight,
AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,

Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
WWS

Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight,
AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,

Jacobson-Delucchi 100%
WWS

Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight,
AAAS Annual Meeting, February 15, 2014,

Rapid, affordable energy transformation


possible, study says
25 January 2016

Nature Climate Change.


Although improvements in wind and solar
generation have continued to ratchet down the cost
of producing renewable energy, these energy
resources are inherently intermittent. As a result,
utilities have invested in surplus generation
capacity to back up renewable energy generation
with natural gas-fired generators and other
reserves.

A high-resolution map based on NOAA weather data


showing one measure of wind energy potential across
the United States in 2012. Credit: Chris Clack/CIRES

"In the future, they may not need to," said co-lead
author Christopher Clack, a physicist and
mathematician with the Cooperative Institute for
Research in Environmental Sciences at the
University of Colorado Boulder.

bal Solar PV Installations grew 35% in 20


& to 321 GW by end of 2016

Global PV Demand 2004-2020E


http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/gtm-research-global-solar-pv-installations-g
rew-34-in-2015?utm_source=Solar&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=

Energy Payback Time (EPBT)


in Years for different
locations and technologies

Solar Potential in kWh/m/yr

Source: Fraunhofer FHI, Energy Payback


Time, presentation slides, and photovolatic
report, p. 3032[11] Table: kWh/m/a kilowatt-hours per square metre per year,

Global Wind Power Cumulative Capacity 1996-2


Globally, wind installations are
expected to reach 963 GW by the
end of 2025*

60-fold
increase

http://cleantechnica.com/2015/09/22/chinas-wind-energy-capacity-triple-2020-globaldata/,
September 22nd, 2015 by Joshua S Hill *

The Progress of Wind Power in the United


States
Key Facts
4.6%of U.S. 2014 power
generation1
42%of all 2012 U.S. power capacity
additions, the highest of any
resource 2
Wind capacity more than doubled
from2008-2012 (average of 8.7
GW/year) 3
59 GWwindcapacity addedfrom
2005 to 2014 4

Revolution Now: The Future Arrives for Four Clean Energy


Technologies. DOE. September 2014 (in press)

11 stateswith>10%wind
generation in 2014: Colorado, Idaho,
Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota,
North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon,
South Dakota, and Texas 5
Two stateswith>25%wind
generation in 2014: Iowa (30%)
and South Dakota (25%)
Average of 73,000 U.S. jobsin
installation, manufacturing and
operations over 2010-2014 6

8 | Wind and Water Power Technologies Office

eere.energy.gov

Wind CAGR: 20.7%


Solar PV CAGR: 42.8%

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

HOW TO SUSTAIN DOUBLE DIGIT


SOLAR PV GLOBAL GROWTH?
Rate dependent upon how fiercely, effectively, and unendingly fossil
fuel advocates are at deterring, delaying, derailing Solar PV
25% year growth
60

70
60
50
40

TW 30
20

15% year growth


20

Current Global Energy Consumption in TW-years

10% yr growth

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839

2012

years

2028

2050

2035

Ray Kurzweil and Larry Page, calculate solar PV growth achieving 8 doublings within the next several decades,
matching
total global energy demand, prepared for National Academy of Engineers Workshop
of Experts, 2008
https://charlieonenergy.wordpress.com/2015/12/07/solar-and-moores-law/,
December
7, 2015 /

Whats the Size of the U.S. Wind Resource?

Authoritative Estimate: Developable wind resource is


13 times total U.S. electricity consumption

(Land
Based)Size (Land Based)
Evolution of Wind
Turbine

Ed DeMeo, Governors Wind & Solar Energy, Coalition Policy Priorities Workshop, June 19,
2015, http://www.governorswindenergycoalition.org/?page_id=13502

Wind power is a function of the cube (3rd power) of


the wind speed. If wind speed is doubled, power in
the wind 8-fold. Small differences in wind speed
lead to large differences in power. Higher towers
intercept more constant, higher speed winds.

HOW TO SUSTAIN DOUBLE DIGIT


GLOBAL GROWTH OF RURAL- &
COASTAL-BASED WIND FARMS?
35

Expanding from 0.28 TW


in 2012 to

~140,000 230 MW
25

1.2 TW by 2020 (20% per


year growth rate
2012-2020)
5 TW by 2030
(15%/year 2011-2030)
33 TW by 2050
(10%/yr from 2031-2050)

400,000 3TW 20 MW
15
10

1 million 55 MW
0
3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739
6.6 1million
52012MW
2050
years

New map shows how taller wind turbines can help unlock wind's
potential in all 50 states, especially in the southeastern U.S.

http://energy.gov/eere/articles/unlocking-our-nation-s-win
d-

Silicon Solar Cells


Solar cell efficiencies of devices using these materials
increased
from 3.8% in 2009 to 21.0% in 2015.

Lab-efficiency >
20 % & 2 %
share overall
PV market in
2013.

Lab-efficiency >
20 % & 2 %
share overall
PV market in
2013.

Lab-efficiency >
20 % & 2 %
share overall
PV market in
2013.

Perovskite Solar Cells


Solar cell efficiencies of devices using these materials
increased
from 3.8% in 2009 to 21.0% in 2015.

Crystal structure of
CH3NH3PbX3 perovskites
(X=I, Br and/or Cl). The
methylammonium cation

Thin Film Solar Cells


Solar cell efficiencies of devices using these materials
increased
from 3.8% in 2009 to 21.0% in 2015.

CIGS

CdTe

Lab-efficiency > 20 % & 2 %


share overall PV market in
2013.
Copper Indium Gallium
Selenide solar cell. Red = Cu,

5 percent of worldwide
PV production, & half
the thin film market.
FirstSolar 14 % efficient
& price below 60 cents

EFFICIENCY/
PRODUCTIVITY
50+% Global
Total
Energy Services

I. M O TIV A TI O N

1 ) P r o v e o r d INTEGRATED
is p r o v e th e e c o n o m ic v ia b ilit
HOW TO ACCELERATE
r e tr o fits .
DESIGN (& DEEP RENOVATION) IN
P r io r to 2 0 0 8 , th e E m p ir e S ta te B u ild in g s
THE GLOBAL BUILDING
SECTOR?
to m o s t U .S . o ffic e b u ild in g s .

208,000 buildings
equivalent to
Empire State
Building are
planned for
construction
through 2030
source: Ed Mazria, Architecture 2030, ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS, June 4, 2014, submission to Durban Platform for Enhanced Action; citing and
Adapted from, Dobbs, Richard. Insights & Publications. 06- 2012. http:/ / www.mckinsey.com/ insights/ urbanization/
urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class

A S S E Ts
Apps for
Spurring
Solar and
Efficiency
Techknowledge
http://www.critigen.com/solution/solar-map-standard-edition

S o l a r S i t e A s s e s s m e n t s o l u t i o n a t m u l t i p l e i n s t a l la t i o n s t o
a n a ly z e t h e o p p o r t u n it y f o r e f f ic ie n t s o la r s y s t e m in s ta lla t io n .
C r it ig e n S o la r S it e A s s e s s m e n t is a r e m o t e s o la r a s s e s s m e n t t o o l
d e v e lo p e d f r o m C r i t i g e n s S o l a r M a p p i n g p r o g r a m t h a t m o d e ls

COIN ASSET EXAMPLES OF APPLIED ACTION!

t h e m o s t im p o r t a n t f a c t o r s in S o la r P V p r o d u c t io n : s o la r a c c e s s ,
s h a d i n g , r o o f t o p a z i m u t h a n d p it c h , a n d o t h e r l o c a l v a r i a b l e s , t o
d e t e r m in e a b u ild in g s s o la r p o t e n t ia l.

C r it ig e n p e r f o r m e d m o r e t h a n 1 0 S o la r S it e A s s e s s m e n t s f o r t h e

Growing ASSETs
G r o w in g A SSETs
TA
C
T
I
C
S
Building by Building, Campus by Campus, City by City
T h e C r it ig e n S o la r M o d e l a s s e s s e s a ll s u r r o u n d in g
t o p o lo g y (e .g . v e g e t a t io n , b u ild in g s ) in t h e d a t a fo r
s h a d in g im p a c t s a n d d e t e r m in e s h o t s p o t s f o r s o la r P V .

M A R F O R R E S E n e r g y P r o g r a m , p r o v id in g th e m w it h g r a p h ic a l a n d
t a b u la r r e p o r t s d e t a ilin g b u ild in g , r o o f -p a n e l a n d s u b -m e t e r

r e s o lu t io n s o la r e n e r g y p r o d u c t io n p o t e n t ia l a n d g r a p h ic a lly

d e p ic t s w h e r e o n t h e r o o f t h e h o t s p o t s f o r s o la r a r e . R e p o r t s
i n c l u d e 3 D p e r s p e c t iv e v i e w s , s o l a r h o t s p o t m a p s a n d b u i l d i n g -

S o lu t io n

BIM 7

l e v e l s o la r p o t e n t i a l r o l l - u p s . T h e s i t e a s s e s s m e n t s w e r e

M A R F O R R E S E n e r g y P r o g r a m s e l e c t e d C r i t i g e n t o p cr uo vs it do em i ti zs e d t o r e f le c t M A R F O R R E S - s p e c i f i c c r i t e r i a a n d
S o l a r S i t e A s s e s s m e n t s o l u t i o n a t m u l t i p l e i n s t a l l a t ico on ns st iod e r a t i o n s a n d t o m e e t o t h e r n e e d s d r i v e n b y D O D a n d

DSG AGGREGATION
T h e C r it ig e n S o la r M o d e l a s s e s s e s a ll s u r r o u n d in g
t o p o l o g y ( e . g . v e g e t a t i o n , b u il d i n g s ) i n t h e d a t a f o r
s h a d in g i m p a c t s a n d d e t e r m i n e s h o t s p o t s f o r s o la r P V .

a n a l y z e t h e o p p o r t u n i t y f o r e f f i c i e n t s o l a r s y s t e m i nl es gt ai sl llaa tti iov ne . m a n d a t e s .


C r it ig e n S o la r S it e A s s e s s m e n t is a r e m o t e s o la r a s s e s s m e n t t o o l
d e v e l o p e d f r o m C r i t i g e n s S o l a r M a p p i n g p r o g r a m tRh ea ts mu lo td e l s
t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s i n S o l a r P V p r o d u c t i o n : Cs or iltai gr ea nc c Se os lsa, r S i t e A s s e s s m e n t s h a v e p l a c e d a c t i o n a b l e
s h a d i n g , r o o f t o p a z i m u t h a n d p i t c h , a n d o t h e r l o c a il nv faor ri amb al et ios , nt o i n t h e h a n d s o f f a c i l i t y a n d e n e r g y m a n a g e r s a t
M A R F O R R E S a n d a r e h e lp in g t h e m lo c a t e t h e m o s t e f f ic ie n t s it e s
d e t e r m in e a b u ild in g s s o la r p o t e n t ia l.
f o r s o la r e n e r g y g e n e r a t io n . In a d d it io n t o e n s u r in g o p t im a l s it e
C r i t i g eRoof&Ground
n p e r f o r m e d m o r e t h a n solar
1 0 S o l a r S i t e A s s e s s ms eel en ct st i of onr ft oh re f u t u r e s y s t e m s , o n e a s s e s s m e n t r e v e a l e d
R o Mo f At PV
o Rp FoOb sR capability
t Rr uE c St i oE nns e arng dy pPe rr oi mg er inventory
tae mr s, e pt br ao cvk isd wi ne gr e t h e m w i t h g r a p h i c a l a n d
a p p o r t io n o f a r o o f t o p w it h a p la n n e d s o la r P V s y s t e m t h a t w a s
a p p lie d u s in g t h e M A R F O R R E S 3 D d a t a f o r m o r e
t a b u la r r e p o r t s d e t a ilin g b u ild in g , r o o f - p a n e l a n d s u b - m e t e r
a c c u r a t e s o la r p o t e n t ia l c a l c u la t io n s .
u n s u it a b le f o r s o la r e n e r g y p r o d u c t io n . T h e a s s e s s m e n t
r e s o lu t io n s o la r e n e r g y p r o d u c t io n p o t e n t ia l a n d g r a p h ic a lly
a l l o w e d M A R F O R R E S t o a v o i d m o r e t h a n $ 6 0 ,0 0 0 i n c o s t s t o
d e p ic t s w h e r e o n t h e r o o f t h e h o t s p o t s f o r s o la r a r e . R e p o r t s
c o n s t r u c t t h e p o r t io n o f t h e s y s t e m t h a t h a d b e e n o v e r d e s ig n e d
in c lu d e 3 D p e r s p e c t iv e v ie w s , s o la r h o t s p o t m a p s a n d b u ild in g b y t h e in s t a lle r .
l e vOe l ns oe l aSr op loat er n St iiatl er o Al l -su sp es .s sT m
h e es int et a s s e s s m e n t s w e r e

360 Visual Tour 10x EE

c u s t o m i z e d t o r e f l e c t M A R F O R R E S - s p e c i f i c c r i t e r i a aC nods t i n g l e s s t h a n 1 % o f t h e c o s t o f a t y p i c a l la r g e s o l a r P V
a llo w e d M A R F O R R E S t o a v o id
c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a n d t o m e e t o t h e r n e e d s d r i v e n b y Ds yOs Dt e ma n , dC r i t i g e n S o l a r S i t e A s s e s s m e n t s h a v e p r o v e n t o p r o v i d e
l e gmi s l oa tri vee tmhaan nd a $t e6s 0. ,0 0 0 i n c o s t s
a n e s s e n t ia l a n d c o s t - e f f e c t iv e le v e l o f a s s u r a n c e t h a t s y s t e m s

fo r a s o la r P V s y s t e m t h a t
w ill d e liv e r p la n n e d r e t u r n o n in v e s t m e n t a n d d e liv e r p r o g r e s s
R e s u lt
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C r i t i g e n S o l a r S i t e A s s e s s m e n t s h a v e p l a c e d a c t i o n at ob wl e a r d l e g i s la t i v e m a n d a t e s f a c e d b y F e d e r a l a g e n c ie s .

R o o f t o p o b s t r u c t io n s a n d p e r i m e t e r s e t b a c k s w e r e
a p p lie d u s in g t h e M A R F O R R E S 3 D d a t a f o r m o r e
a c c u r a t e s o la r p o t e n t ia l c a lc u la t io n s .

in f o r m a t io n in t h e h a n d s o f f a c ilit y a n d e n e r g y m a n a g e r s a t
M A R F O R R E S a n d a r e h e lp in g t h e m lo c a t e t h e m o s t e f f ic ie n t s it e s
f o r s o la r e n e r g y g e n e r a t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n t o e n s u r i n g o p t i m a l s i t e
s e le c t io n f o r f u t u r e s y s te m s , o n e a s s e s s m e n t r e v e a le d
a p p o r t io n o f a r o o f t o p w it h a p la n n e d s o la r P V s y s t e m t h a t w a s
u n s u it a b le f o r s o la r e n e r g y p r o d u c t io n . T h e a s s e s s m e n t

A p p s f o r Sp u r r in g So la r & Effi cie n cy Te ch -k n o w le d g e


C oanl ltoawc te d M A R F O R R E S t o a v o i d m o r e t h a n $ 6 0 , 0 0 0 i n c o s t s t o

O n e S o la r S it e A s s e s s m e n t

C o cr op on rsat tr eu Hc te tahd eq up aor rt et iros n o f t h e s y s t e m t h a t h a d b e e n o v e r d e s i g n e d


7 6 b0 4y Tt eh ceh ni no sl ot ga yl l We ra. y , S u i t e 3 0 0
D en ver, C O 8 0 2 3 7

ASSET EXTERIOR BUILDINGS!

S O L A R P O W E R TO O LS
G e o -S p a tia l V is u a l M a p p in g S o la r -c a p a b le S u r f a c e s
in te g r a te d w ith lo n g -te r m n a n c in g o p tio n a p p s

A p p s r a p id ly e v o lv in g a n d s p e c ia tin g

Interactive 360 Visuals


hand-held APPortunities

ASSET INTERIOR BUILDINGS!


A P P s fo r S p u r r in g S o la r & E f fi c ie n c y T e c h - k n o w le d g e

3 6 0 in te r a c tiv e V ie w

EarthVisionZ, location intelligent software, http://earthvisionz.com/ ,

ASSET INTERIOR BUILDINGS AS LEARNING LAB!

R M I D e e p -D iv e 1 0 x E L e a r n in g To o ls & E x p e r ie n c e

U s in g w e b C O I N to S c a le r e a l-w o r ld b ig -g a in r e s u lts

VROOM

M a p p i n g C i ti e s R o o f & R o a d to p s f o r
So l a r R e e cti n g Sa v i n g s
U S$ 2 Tr i l l i o n G l o b a l Sa v i n g s
5 0 + b i l l i o n to n s C O 2 r e d u ce d

Sin ga p o re %E X P O %C o n v e n ; o n %& %E x h ib i; o n %C e n tre

U rb a n %H e a t%Isla n d

E a c h %m 2 %w h ite %ro o f%o ffse ts%1 %to n %C O 2


The long-term effect of increasing the albedo of urban areas, Hashem Akbari, H Damon Matthews and Donny Seto, Environmental Research Letters, 7 (2012) 024004

SO LA R R E FLE C T O R S
O v e r 4 0 0 0 W a lm a rt sto re s w ith
w h ite ro o fs, a n d sta n d a rd
p ra c tic e sin c e 1 9 9 0
R e fle c ts a w a y 8 0 % o f so la r h e a t

ASSET CITYSCAPE SCALE!


A P P -A g g r e g a tin g A s s e m b la g e s o f B u ild in g s
P r io r ity -R a n k in g B ig g e s t O p p o r tu n itie s
I n c o r p o r a tin g F in a n c in g A lg o r ith m s
C O I N s f o r le a r n in g , s k il l s , tr a i n i n g , p r a c ti c e , v e r i c a tio n , a d a p ta ti o n , tim e s a v in g

A r iz o n a S ta te U n iv e r s ity r e s e a r c h e r s h a v e d e v e lo p e d a n e w s o ftw a r e s y s te m c a p a b le o f e s tim a tin g G H G e m is s io n s a c r o s s e n tir e u r b a n


la n d s c a p e s , a ll th e w a y d o w n to r o a d s a n d in d iv id u a l b u ild in g s . U n til n o w , s c ie n tis ts q u a n ti e d C O 2 e m is s io n s a t a m u c h b r o a d e r le v e l. D u b b e d
"H e s tia " a fte r th e G r e e k g o d d e s s o f th e h e a r th a n d h o m e , th e s y s te m c o m b in e s e x te n s iv e p u b lic d a ta b a s e "d a ta - m in in g " w ith tr a f c s im u la tio n
a n d b u ild in g - b y - b u ild in g e n e r g y - c o n s u m p tio n m o d e lin g . I ts h ig h - r e s o lu tio n m a p s c le a r ly id e n tify C O 2 e m is s io n s o u r c e s in a w a y th a t p o lic y m a k e r s c a n u tiliz e a n d th e p u b lic c a n u n d e r s ta n d . H e s tia p r o v id e s a c o m p le te , th r e e - d im e n s io n a l p ic tu r e o f w h e r e , w h e n , a n d h o w c a r b o n
d io x id e e m is s io n s a r e o c c u r r in g . C r e d it: K e v in G u r n e y , B e d r ic h B e n e s , M ic h e l A b d u l- M a s s ih , S u z a n n a R e m e c , J im H u r s t

O n e - C lic k , O n e - S t o p P r o c e s s fo r S o la r P V
A s s e s s m e n t - F in a n c in g - I n s t a lla t io n - O p e r a t io n

U .S . R e s i d e n t i a l S o l a r P V F i n a n c i n g :
T h e V e n d o r, In s t a lle r a n d F in a n c ie r L a n d s c a p e , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 1 6
G T M , U S R e s i d e n t i a l S o la r F i n a n c e L a n d s c a p e M a p , F e b 2 0 1 3 , h t t p : / / w w w .g r e e n t e c h m e d i a . c o m / r e s e a r c h / r e p o r t / u . s .- r e s i d e n t i a l - s o la r - p v - n a n c i n g

E L E C T R IC M O T O R S Y S T E M S

N o w u s e 1 / 2 g lo b a l p o w e r
3 0 - 5 0 % e f f ic ie n c y s a v in g s a c h ie v a b le w / h ig h R O I

3D, 4D, 5D, 6D, 7D BIM


Continuous, smarter performance

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g04-G53mbmc

E le c t r ic - P o w e r e d M o b ilit y I n n o v a t io n G lo b a lly
N e a r ly 1 / 2 b illio n e le c t r ic b ik e s , t r ik e s , s c o o t e r s b y 2 0 1 5

S o la r - c h a r g e d E le c t r ic t r ic y c le s in P h ilip p in e s

WIND SIMs

Computer model wind farm optimization

3D Simulation Collaboration Rooms

Real-world Wind turbine performance metrics

Simulation Wind Turbine Erection w/ Crawler Crane

W o m e n B a re fo o t So la r E n gin e e rs W o rld w id e

E v a n M ills , G R O C C D e m o n s t r a t io n P r o je c t : A f f o r d a b le , H ig h - P e r f o r m a n c e S o la r L E D L ig h t in g P ilo t v ia t h e M ille n n iu m V illa g e s P r o je c t , h t t p : / / e e t d . lb l. g o v / e m ills

BIG BIM, BIG DATA


BIG CONTINUOUS RESULTS

Cradle$to$Cradle'Con6nuous'Commissioning''

BIM7+

(Cradle-to-Cradle)

F r o m In t e g r a te d d e s ig n s to in te g r a te d o p e r a tio n s
I
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R
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H V A C lo w - s id e

W e a th e r

B u ild in g

L ig h t in g
C o m p u tin g
P lu g L o a d s

D e s ig n s ta g e
m o s t e ffic ie n t/p e a k

Loads
O p e r a tin g h o u r s

I
N
T
E
G
R
A
T
E
D
O
P
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R
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I n f o s y s B P O a w aO crcdu pea ndt b e 5h a -v Si o r t a r R a ti n g b


E ffic ie n c y ( B E E )
R e a lis tic s c e n a r io
5 - s t a r r a t in g s ig n i e s b e in g t h e - mv a or isa t b el en se r g y e ffi c ie n t

B a n g a l o r e , In d i a - M a y 1 3 , 2 0 1 0 : I n f o s y s B P O , t h e
s u b s id ia r y o f In fo s y s T e c h n o lo g ie s , t o d a y a n n o u n c e d th a t i
r a tin g fo r e n e r g y e ffic ie n c y b y B u r e a u o f E n e r g y E f f ic ie n c y ( B
P h a s e 2 c a m p u s in H in je w a d i, P u n e , I n d ia . T h e r a tin g is u
b u ild in g s s c h e m e o f B E E t h a t r a t e s o f f ic e b u ild in g s in I n d ia
r e n d e r e d o n a s c a le o f 1 to 5 s ta r s , w h e r e a 5 - s ta r r a tin g s

13

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H V A C (G o a l(
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M a x e n v e lo p e h e a t g a in 1 . 0 W / s q f t

L P D o f 0 .4 5 W /s q ft

T o t a l b u ild in g @ 7 5 0 - 1 0 0 0 s q f t / T R

9 0 % o f b u ild in g t o b e d a y lit > 1 1 0 lu x

25 deg C , 55% R H

N o G la r e th r o u g h o u t th e y e a r

W a t e r (G o a l(
!

L e s s th a n 2 5 L P D fo r
o ff ic e b u ild in g

Z e r o d is c h a r g e

1 0 0 % s e lf s u ffic ie n t

A r c h it e c t s

A r c h ite c ts

P H E E n g in e e r s

F a c a d e S p e c ia lis t s

F a c a d e S p e c ia lis t s

A r c h ite c ts

I T S p e c ia lis t s

L ig h t in g S p e c ia lis t s

L a n d s c a p e A r c h it e c t s

H V A C E n g in e e r s

E le c tr ic a l D e s ig n e r s

L ig h t in g S p e c ia lis ts

Punit(Desai,(Environmental(Sustainability(at(Infosys(Driven(by(values,(Powered(by(innovaNon,(InfoSys,(presentaNon(to(RMI,(Sept(15,(2014(

B u il d in g A n a ly t ic s in a c t io n
A t o n e c lie n t f a c ilit y r u n n in g B u ild in g A n a ly t ic s , t h e p r e h e a t in g
c o il a n d c o o lin g c o il w e r e o p e r a t in g s im u lt a n e o u s ly a n d w a s t in g
m o r e t h a n $ 9 0 0 a n d 8 0 ,0 0 0 k B T U s o n a d a ily b a s is . T h e p r o b le m
w a s p in p o in t e d a t a le a k in g c h ille d w a t e r v a lv e t h a t o n c e r e p a ir e d
p r o d u c e d $ 6 0 ,0 0 0 in a n n u a l s a v in g s w it h R O I in t h e r s t m o n t h .

SMALL'SENSORS'
BIG'DATA'
VISUAL'ANALYTICS'

R e tu rn fa n
statu s

B u ild in g n a m e :
E q u ip m e n t n a m e :
A n a ly s is n a m e :
E s t im a t e d d a ily c o s t s a v in g s :
P ro b le m :

E x c e s s o r s im u lta n e o u s h e a tin g
a n d c o o lin g
e ith e r p r o v id in g e x c e s s h e a tin g o r c o o lin g
o r o p e r a tin g s im u lt a n e o u s ly .

P o s s ib le c a u s e s :
a n d is le a k in g .

> T e m p e ra tu r e s e n s o r e rr o r o r s e n s o r
in s ta lla tio n e r r o r is c a u s in g im p r o p e r
c o n tr o l o f th e v a lv e s .

O utd o o r
a ir t e m p
S im u lt a n e o u s
h e a t i n g a n d c o o l in g

O c c u p a n c y
is a t s e t p o in t

S u p p ly a ir
te m p e ratu re
s e t p o in t
M ix e d a ir
te m p e ra tu re
se n so r

S u p p ly f a n
statu s
H e a t in g
v a lv e
p o s it i o n

P r e h e a t in g
d is c h a r g e
te m p e ratu re

C o o lin g
v a lv e
p o s it io n

11

B e n c h m a r k in g o f In fo s y s b u ild in g s
D e sign %ta rge t%

U n its%

US

E x is: n g%(U S)% B e X e r%

In d ia

B e st%p ra c : c e % In fo sy s%

Decrease'in'project'risk''
with'increase'in'BIM'details'
I ssa , S u er m a n n a n d O lb in a

A/E'Firms'
Contractors'
Owners'

R is k

Cradle'to'Cradle*Facility*Lifespan*Integra6on**

2D

3D

4D

5D

6D

7D

F i g u r e 3 : D e c r e a s e i n p r o j e c t r i s k w i th th e i n c r e a s e i n m o d e l d e ta i l s
V I C O C o n tr o l i s a l o c a ti o n b a s e d v i r tu a l c o n s tr u c ti o n s y s te m th a t a l l o w s th e c r e a ti o n o f c o m p r e s s e d s c h e d u l e s w h i c h a l l o w th e u s e r to d e te r m i n e p r o g r e s s b y c o m p a r i n g a c tu a l p r o d u c ti v i ty to th e p r o j e c t s c h e d u l e . M a n y B I M m o d e l s a r e n o t a b l e
to s to r e i n f o r m a ti o n b e y o n d w h a t th e b u i l d i n g l o o k s l i k e a n d a s s u c h d o n o t a l l o w th e u s e r to s to r e i n f o o n th e c o n s tr u c ti o n
p r o c e s s . V I C O C o n tr o l a l l o w s i n te g r a te d c o n s tr u c ti o n o f th e w h o l e p r o j e c t a n d a l l o w s th e u s e r to l i n k d u r a ti o n a n d c o s t i n -

Calif. Community Colleges FUSION


Facilities Utilization Space Inventory Options Net
The FUSION + CCC GIS
+ Onuma Collaboration
Platform links three
separate web tools to
create a exible and
powerful means for
districts to work on
projects across the
facilities life-cycle, from
campus master planning
to energy monitoring to
maintenance job ticketing.

COLLABORATE

BIG BIMBang-- EnterpriseBIMandBIG Data-- SharingData, AIA Technology in Architectural Practice, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dajUgdz_rls

BIG BIMBang-- EnterpriseBIMandBIG Data-- SharingData, AIA Technology in Architectural Practice, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dajUgdz_rls

Exponential Organization Methods

BIG BIMBang-- EnterpriseBIMandBIG Data-- SharingData, AIA Technology in Architectural Practice, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dajUgdz_rls

CITIZEN CHANGE AGENTS


CHANGING PUBLIC POLICIES
&
MARKET PRACTICES

Leadership Change
Capacity

100

0
0

CHANGE READINESS
MATRIX

Ready for
Learning

Ready for
Change

Ready for
Resistanc
e

Ready for
Frustratio
n

Organization Change 100


Capacity
http://www.ascd.org/publications/books/109019/chapters/The-Organizational-Change-Readiness-

David Roberts, Vox, Jan. 27, 2016, http://www.vox.com/2016/1/27/10849564/renewable-energy-tax-credits-big-

Average Retail Residential Electricity Rates


ared to Values of Solar in 11 Cost-Benefit An

(U)Studies written
by, or commissioned
by, utilities

(PUC)Studies
written by, or
commissioned by,
public utilities
commissions

O PUC O

O PUC

(O)Studies written
by, or commissioned
by, non-utility

https://ilsr.org/solar-net-metering-a-subsidy-to-utilities/ John Farrell, Juneorganizations

Categories of Benefits & Costs


Included in Each Value of Solar
Energy Cost-Benefit Analysis*

*Colored cells represent categories included in the solar energy


cost-benefit calculation

SHINING REWARDS, The Value of Rooftop Solar Power for Consumers and Society, Lindsey
Hallock, Frontier Group

A Comparison of Cost-Benefit
Analyses of Solar Energy by Study
and Category

SHINING REWARDS, The Value of Rooftop Solar Power for Consumers and Society, Lindsey
Hallock, Frontier Group

Clean energy investments in 2015


hit new record of $329bn

Luke Mills, Joseph Byrne, Clean Energy Investment: Q4 2015 Factpack, January 2016, Bloomberg

Current PACE-enabled states include AR, CA, CO,


CT, DC, FL, IL, GA, KY, LA, MD, MI, MN, MO, NH,
NJ,NY, OH, OR, TX, UT, VA, WI.
PACE program representatives in most of these
states operate in an isolated few municipalities
and do not yet have statewide reach. California,

PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy)


1)There is no cost or investment up-front. PACE
providers nance up to 100%, helping businesses
with internal funding shortages.
2)Property owners see a positive cash flow due to
energy savings that lower monthly operating
expenses.
3)PACE assessments stay with the property if the
building is sold. This allows building owners to make
deep energy efficiency improvements without having
to pay off the nancing upon sale. Instead, the
payments can transfer to a new owner.
4)There is the ability to pass payments through to
tenants. PACE projects are nanced using a property
tax assessment. If the owner of a building has
http://www.pv-tech.org/guest-blog/upping-the-pace-for-solar

PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy)


4) At the same time, tenants will see cost savings
on electricity bills while leasing space in that
building. This allows tenant and landlord
interests to align as the landlord gets the
tenants to pay the bill, but the tenants get to
see the cost savings.
5) PACE offers low interest rates; which tend to be
in the 6-7% range, sometimes even lower if
incentives are provided.
6) PACE-nanced improvements can increase longterm property value. PACE adds a lien item to
the property taxes, allowing sellers to price in
the value of energy efficiency projects when a
property is sold.
http://www.pv-tech.org/guest-blog/upping-the-pace-for-solar

As Solar & Wind


energy costs
have fallen, the
cost of reducing
emissions has
also dropped

Professor Jessika Trancik,


Energineering Systems, MIT,
Nov 29, 2015,
http://mitei.mit.edu/publications/reports-studie
s/12-key-charts-demonstrating-positive-feedbackloop

Cost of avoiding CO2-eq emissions


[$ / ton CO2-eq]

600
Solar (PV)

500
400
300
200
100
Wind

0
-100

2000 2014

Chinas growth is set to triple by 2025,


reaching an estimated 347 GW by 2025

rlds Most Efficient Rooftop Solar Pa

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Worlds-Most-Efficient-Rooftop-Solar-PanelRevisited , Eric Wesoff

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/pv-cost-decreases-to-ensure-strong-demand-in-2016-and-beyond-

Newest Wind Turbines stand 110 to 140 meters


tall in hub height,
up to 1 times the height of the Statue of Liberty

http://energy.gov/eere/articles/unlocking-our-nation-s-win
d-

Wind Vision 2030


projected growth of the wind industry by 2030

http://energy.gov/articles/new-interactive-map-shows-big-potential-america-s-wind-ener

Wind Vision 2050


projected growth of the wind industry over the
next 35 years

Wind energy could support by 2050:


600,000+ jobs in manufacturing, installation, maintenance &
supporting services.
Save $508 billion from reduced pollutants and $280 billion in
natural gas costs.
http://energy.gov/articles/new-interactive-map-shows-big-potential-america-s-wind-ener
Save 260 billion gallons of water otherwise used by the electric

Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015,


http://mitei.mit.edu/publications/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstrating-positive-feedback-loop

Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015,

Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015,

Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015,

Solar and wind energy costs have fallen


as their markets have grown
Solar (PV) deployment

150
100

Solar (PV) module price


[$/Wp]

100

12600% growth
since 2000

1980 1990 2000 2010


Year

2300% growth
since 2000

1980 1990 2000 2010


Year

300
Solar (PV) price

60
40

200
100

80

20

Wind deployment

300

50
0

Global power capacity


[GWp]

400

86% decline
since 2000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Year

Cost of electricity
[$/MWh]

Global power capacity


[GWp]

200

250

Wind cost

200
150
100
50
0

35% decline
since 2000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Year

Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015,


Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 2015
http://mitei.mit.edu/publications/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstrating-positive-feedback-loop

Opportunity for further


decline
Opportunitycost
for further
cost decline un
Opportunity for further cost decline
countries
climate pledges
(INDCs)
under
countries
pledges
(INDCs)
under
countries
climate pledgesclimate
(INDCs)
250
Wind

200
150
100 + Health impacts
Direct cost
50
0

Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015, Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 2015
http://mitei.mit.edu/publications/reports-studies/12-key-ch
arts-demonstrating-positive-feedback-

Cost of electricity [$/MWh]

Cost of electricity [$/MWh]

250

Solar (PV)

200
+ Health impacts
Direct cost

150
100
50
0

2015 best sites

https://ilsr.org/congress-gets-renewable-tax-credit-extension-right/ John Farrell, Jan 25, 2016

http://repowering.org

REPOWERmap

http://repowering.org

CHINA SOLAR
Between 2000 and
2012, Chinas solar
energy output
increased from 3 MW
to 21,000 MW. And its
solar output increased
by 67 % between 2013
and 2014 alone.
CHINA WIND
between 1997 and
2014 China's wind
energy became the
nation's 3rd-largest
power source: in less
than 15 years, wind
http://www.power-technology.com/features/featurechinas-energy-revolution-4643231/
production
grew from

11 August

US electricity sector CO2 emissions (left


axis, bars) and LCOE (levelized cost of
electricity) (right axis, diamonds)

Blue bars are for historical data and an International Energy Agency projection to 2030 (ref. 6). The green bars represent results from our
optimization model (the values are the average of the three years of simulations). The coal scenario is identical to the HRLG scenario,
but with the inclusion of coal plants. The red diamonds represent the levelized cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to consumers in
2013US$. The percentages show the change of CO2 emissions relative to 1990 levels.

Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO 2 emissions, Alexander E.


MacDonald, Christopher T. M. Clack, et al., Nature Climate Change, Jan. 25, 2016

Energy Storage

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/01/energy-storage-set-for-record-yearin-2016.html?cmpid=renewablesolar01232016&eid=289707094&bid=

Getting to 100, A Status Report on Rising Commitments Among Corporations


and Governments to Reach 100% Renewables , November 2015, CleanTech,
prepared for SolarCity

Clean energy investments in 2015


hit new record of $329bn

China accounting for $111bn, USA $59 billion,


and solar attracted the largest chunk of
Luke Mills, Joseph Byrne, Clean Energy Investment:
Q4 2015 Factpack, January 2016, Bloomberg
funding.

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Apple-Tackles-Supply-Chain-Emissions-with-2GW-Clean-Energy-Initiati
ve-inCh , Julia Pyper, October 22, 2015;

ar-on-Year Growth of Global Solar PV 2001-20


Solar has been doubling every 2 years since 2000

74
%

26
%

Doubling time = 72 divided by percentage


https://charlieonenergy.wordpress.com/2015/12/07/solar-and-moores-law/, December 7, 2015 /

umulative installed Solar PV Globally 2000-201

The CAGR of global solar PV


installations
from 2000-2015 has been 42%

In 2000, global installed solar PV capacity paled in


comparison to todays gures. Estimates put the total
installed PV capacity in 2000 at around 1.4GW. To put
this gure in perspective, China alone installed ten
times this amount of solar PV in just 2014.
https://charlieonenergy.wordpress.com/2015/12/07/solar-and-moores-law/, December 7, 2015 /

Fortunately, Solar is Cheaper to Install Than Ever

Solar is Cheaper to Install Than Ever


Best-in-Class

Q3 2014 Bottom-Up Average System Price ($/W)

$4.00
$3.60
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50

$2.27

$2.00

$1.68

$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00

Residential
Modules
DC Electrical BOS
Direct Labor

Commercial

Utility
Inverters and AC Subsystem
Structural BOS
Engineering and PII
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

Next Wave of U.S. Solar, Shayle Kann, Sr VP, Research, Greentech Media, U.S. Solar Market

$200

Utility Solar PPA Prices Now


Consistently
Below $70/MWh (<7 cents/kWh)

$175
$150
$125($/MWh)
PPA Price
$100
$75
$50
$25
$0
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Contract Execution Date

GTM, Shayle Kann, The Evolution of the U.S. Solar Market, April 2015

2014

2015

CHINA

Chinas solar PV capacity is


expected to hit 150 GW by
2020

INDIA
India has announced plans to set up 100 GW of
solar power over 5 years and 175 GW by 2020; a
target double the target set by China between
http://cleantechnica.com/2014/11/14/trina-solar-open-solar-pv-module-manufacturing-hub-i
2011 and 2015.
ndia

CHILE

10 MW in 2013, to 850 MW in 2015, w/


2,200 MW under construction, 10,000 MW
in pipeline of approved projects, and 4,000
http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/19/2015-solar-installation-gures-continue-rolling-algeria-chil

AFRICA

Agahozo Shalom Youth Village in the hills east of


Kigali, Rwanda

A 20-fold increase in off-grid power connections is among the aims of a


plan to achieve universal energy access in Africa by 2025. The plan,
announced by the African Development Bank (AFB), envisages 160 GW
of new grid-connected generation capacity and 75 million new off-grid
power connections. There is 10,000 GW of solar potential on the African
continent according to the AFB.
US$60-90 billion a year is needed, compared with the US$22 billion
invested in the sector in 2014. According to the AFB President, "If Africa
were to increase its annual spending on energy from 0.4% of GDP to
3.4%, this would solve the problem completely. This could also be done
http://www.pv-tech.org/news/davos-2016-energy-new-deal-for-africa-targets-universal-

The Wind Vision Report


The Benefits of Wind Energy Today

Key Fact

The avoided CO2 emissions from wind energy today help offset the equivalent of more
than 24 million passenger vehicles

9 | Wind and Water Power Technologies Office

eere.energy.gov

The Wind Vision Report


The Study Scenario
The Potential of 35%of the Countrys Electricity Coming from Wind Energy by 2050

The Wind Vision Study Scenario results in modest increases in electricity cost in the near- and midterm(<1%price increase), but in the longtermelectricity costs savings of 2%are achieved by 2050
13 | Wind and Water Power Technologies Office

eere.energy.gov

http://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/images/
efficiency_chart.jpg
Bottom line: unless a PV system is at least 15% efficient, it will not survive in the marketplace.
The cost pressure is high, because PV competes with fossil fuels which are subsidized directly and
indirectly, and because the residential market deals with additional soft costs for permitting,
electricians, inspectors and installers. In the U.S. this typically doubles the cost of the panels.
Bringing down these soft costs would do much more than any potential efficiency gains on the
innovation side of the equation. the industry has been booming for years and still is: prices are

Solar PV module Roadmaps 2005 and 2010

ovoltaics International, fourth quarter, 30 th edition, December 2015, http://www.pv-tech.org

The Top 10 PV module manufacturers


ranking list for 2015

1. Trina Solar
6. First Solar
2. Canadian
7. Yingli Green
Solar
8. SFCE
3. JinkoSolar
9. ReneSola
4. JA Solar
10. SunPower
ovoltaics International,
quarter, 13 Q
edition, December
2015, http://www.pv-tech.org
5. fourth
Hanwha
Corp
th

Relative market shares of casted and mono c-Si. Source:


http://www.itrpv.net.

od has been the steady increase in the size of installed systems, from an
0 to over 6Average
kW in 2013. installed prices of U.S. PV
$16
In s t a lle d P r ic e (2 0 13 $ / W )

$14

systems
in 2000 and 2013, in real $/W
$ 1 3 .3 7

$12
$10

42%

$8
$6

$ 4 .7 7
51%

$4
$2
$0
2 0 0 0 p ric e

M o d u le

In v e r t e r

O t h e r c o s t s 2 0 1 3 p r ic e

ureCharacteristics
1. Averageof
installed
of U.S. PV
system
sin
2000
andGregory
2013,F.in
real $/
Low-Pricedprices
Solar Photovoltaic
Systems
in the
United
States,
Nemet,
Eric OShaughnessy, Ryan Wiser et al, LBNL-1004062, Jan. 2016

Distribution of installed prices


forSolar PV systems installed in 2013

Figure 2. Distribution of installed prices for systemsinstalled in 2013.


Characteristics of Low-Priced Solar Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, Gregory F. Nemet,
Ericraphic
OShaughnessy,
Ryanof
Wiser
et
al, LBNL-1004062,
Jan. 2016
Geog
Distribution
LPS
ystem
s

Share of systems in each state that is P10


Gray states have price data but are missing data on other
characteristics,
so they are dropped from all other analyses

Figure 3. Share of systemsin each state that is P10. Gray states have price data but are missingdata

Characteristics of Low-Priced Solar Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, Gregory F. Nemet,
on other characteristics, so they are dropped fromall other analyses.
Eric OShaughnessy, Ryan Wiser et al, LBNL-1004062, Jan. 2016

Clean Energy Collective, Mid Valley, CO,


http://cleaneasyenergy.com/cecblog/

Clean Energy Collective, Colorado Springs CO,


http://cleaneasyenergy.com/cecblog/

GTM predicts community solar will grow at 60%


between 2014 and 2020, resulting in 1.8 GW of new
solar capacity by 2020.
NREL forecasts even greater growth, estimating
community solar will achieve 5.5 to 11 GW of new
distributed solar systems, and US$8 to US$16 billion
http://www.pv-tech.org/guest-blog/community_solar_hype_or_hope
in cumulative investment.
, Nov 03, 2015,Amit Ronen

New Yorks Public Service


Commission noted in
their

Solar PV

Reforming the Energy Vision Regu


latory Policy Framework and Impl
ementation plan
order:
Utilities, and this Commission,
could respond [to the challenges
facing the industry] by clinging to
the traditional business model for
as long as possible, relying on
protective tariffs, regulatory
delay, and other defenses against
innovation.
Alternatively, we can identify and
build regulatory, utility, and
market models that create new
value for consumers and support
market entrants and this new
form of intermodal competition

Wind

2050 Motors IBIS EV, all-carbon


body, 800 lbs lighter than Tesla.

Renault Twizy EV urban


runabout: legal for teenagers

Europeans bought 100,000 EVs in


2015, 47% more than in 2014.
Renault's Zoe (above) was the top
seller.

Malaysia Lauches First


EV Carshare Program

Adomani Electric Bus


in San Jose, CA

eQuestXL electric school bus has range up to


85 miles

55% of all U.S. school buses are diesel-powered,


averaging 7 mpg. Americas 480,000 school buses
burn 823 million gallons of fuel annually, both diesel
and gasoline traveling, 5.5 billion miles while
transporting 26 million students per day. And everyday
those millions of students, as well as the commuters

Worlds biggest EV and storage


maker
BYD
predicts annual doubling in
market
Chinas BYD CEO
expects the size of the
worlds EV market to
treble in the coming
year.
BYD does not see itself
as a competitor to Tesla.
Tesla is concentrating
at the high end, while
BYD is looking at massmarket
models.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/worlds-biggest-ev-and-storage-maker-predicts-3-foldincrease-in-market-21610

Efficiency/Productivity Gains

Energy efficiency in Brazil, China, the E.U., Mexico, and


the U.S. can reduce the cost of decarbonization by up to
$250 billion per year and reduce annual emissions by 11
billion metric tons (Gt) of CO2e in 2030 roughly twothirds of the GHG reductions needed in these regions to
How
Energy
Efficiency
Costs for a 2C Future, Faunhofer Institute, Nov 24, 2015,
limit
warming
toCuts
2C.
http://www.climateworks.org/report/how-energy-efficiency-cuts-costs-for-a-2c-future/

GEs Current
GEs start-up
company, Current,
which is backed by
GEs balance sheet,
brings together GEs
LED, Solar, Energy
Storage, and EV
businesses as a onestop shop for early
customers like
Walgreens,

TeraWatt
Initiative
French energy giant Engie has launched a major publicprivate initiative that aims to ensure that 1,000GW of
solar capacity is installed around the world by 2030.
Incoming president and CEO, Isabelle Kocher (pictured
above), isnailing her colors to the mast. Engie is a giant
of a company, with operations in 70 countries and
150,000 employees
The 1,000GW target might be below some of the more
optimistic forecasts for 2030, particularly those by
Greenpeace and others (and it should be noted that

Off-Grid Solar Company


Connecting
12,000 homes a month

We think of it as an energy services business


model that removes risk for customers. It uses
financing measures effectively a solar lease to
offer the latest in solar technology for less than
or equal to a customers average energy spend
on kerosene and diesel.

We are offering
lighting, phone
charging, and
increasing
access to a
modern
lifestyle.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/the-off-grid-solar-company-connecting-12000-homes-a-month-

STORAGE

ISO / RTO SERVICES

Fitzgerald, Garrett, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Herve Touati. The Economics of Battery Energy Storage: How
multi-use, customer-sited batteries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid. Rocky Mountain
Institute, September 2015. <<http://www.rmi.org/electricity_battery_value>>

UTILITY SERVICES

Fitzgerald, Garrett, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Herve Touati. The Economics of Battery Energy Storage: How
multi-use, customer-sited batteries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid. Rocky Mountain
Institute, September 2015. <<http://www.rmi.org/electricity_battery_value>>

CUSTOMER SERVICES

Fitzgerald, Garrett, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Herve Touati. The Economics of Battery Energy Storage: How
multi-use, customer-sited batteries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid. Rocky Mountain
Institute, September 2015. <<http://www.rmi.org/electricity_battery_value>>

Kendall Cotton Bronk, a developmental psychologist at Claremont


Graduate University, truly nding ones purpose requires four key
components:
dedicated commitment,
personal meaningfulness,
goal directedness, and a
vision larger than ones self.
William Damon, the director of the Stanford Center on Adolescence,
denes purpose as
a stable and generalized intention to accomplish something that is
at the same time meaningful to the self and consequential for the
world beyond the self.
four categories on their path to purpose: the dreamers, the dabblers,
the disengaged, and the purposeful (each of the categories
representing roughly a quarter of the adolescent population).
Extremely purposeful students exhibit high degrees of persistence,
resourcefulness, resilience, and capacity for healthy risk taking.

Institute of Design at Stanford created the below graphic that identies


three interrelated factors essential to fostering purpose among
students: 1) A students skills and strengths; 2) what the world needs;
and 3) what the student loves to do.

DOEs Energy Information Administration (EIA)forecasts


that 255 to 482 Gigawatts (GW) of gas generation will be added by 2040
an additional investment of $233 to $442 billion. The combined price tag
for these infrastructure & generation investments starts at $546 billion and
ranges up to $755 billion.

ower levels of industrial production that adversely affect natural gas consumption for power generation
nd in the petrochemical sector. As a result, total gas use in the low-growth case is about 15 Bcfd, or
Natural
Gas
Association
America
that
bout 15 Interstate
percent lower than
the base
case.
Gas use rises toof
roughly
91 Bcfdasserts
by 2035, versus
more
than
billion
mid-stream
gas
pproximately
106
Bcfd in$313
the base
case.10 in
Although
not shown in
theinfrastructure
figure below, liquids(e.g.
market
, gas
pipelines)
be
neededcase,
byand
2035
rowth also
is significantly
lowerwill
in this
low-growth
U.S. refinery runs are down modestly
.
ompared with the base case levels.
U.S. and Canadian GasConsumption (Average Annual Bcfd)

Interstate Natural Gas Association of America asserts that


more than $313 billion in mid-stream gas infrastructure (e.g.
, gas pipelines) will be needed by 2035
.
U.S. and Canadian Natural GasProduction (Average Annual Bcfd)

http://movingforward.discoursemedia.org/cost-of-commute-calculator-data

Biomimicry Inspired antireflective glass

Deloitte highest BREEM score Amsterdam

EEI Utility Death Spirl

Gartner Hypercycle 2014 emerging technology

Gartner Hypercycle 2015 emerging technology

Gerrard Hassan wind turbine size increases

AWEA

WIND AND WATER POWER TECHNOLOGIES OFFICE

2014 Wind Technologies


Market Report: Summary
August 2015
1

Ryan Wiser & Mark Bolinger


Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The U.S. Placed 3rd in Annual Wind Power


Capacity Additions in 2014
A n n u a l C a p a c ity
(2 0 1 4 , M W )
C h in a
G e rm an y
U n ite d Sta te s
B r a z il
In d ia
Canada
U n it e d K in g d o m
Sw e d e n
Fran ce
Tu rkey
R e s t o f W o r ld
TO TA L

2 3 ,3 0 0
5 ,1 1 9
4 ,8 5 4
2 ,7 8 3
2 ,3 1 5
1 ,8 7 1
1 ,4 6 7
1 ,0 5 0
1 ,0 4 2
804
6 ,6 2 5
5 1 ,2 3 0

C u m u la tiv e C a p a c ity
(e n d o f 2 0 1 4 , M W )
C h in a
1 1 4 ,7 6 0
U n ite d Sta te s
6 5 ,8 7 7
G erm an y
3 9 ,2 2 3
In d ia
2 2 ,9 0 4
S p a in
2 2 ,6 6 5
U n it e d K in g d o m
1 2 ,4 1 3
Canada
9 ,6 8 4
Fran ce
9 ,1 7 0
It a ly
8 ,5 5 6
B r a z il
6 ,6 5 2
R e s t o f W o r ld
6 0 ,2 0 8
TO TA L
3 7 2 ,1 1 2

S o u r c e : N a v ig a n t ; A W E A p r o je c t d a t a b a s e f o r U .S . c a p a c it y

Global wind additions reached a new high in 2014


U.S. remains a distant second to China in cumulative capacity
U.S. led the world in wind energy production in 2014
8

U.S. Lagging Other Countries in Wind As a


Percentage of Electricity Consumption

Note: Figure only includes the countries with the most installed wind
power capacity at the end of 2014
9

Geographic Spread of Wind Projects in the


United States Is Reasonably Broad

Note: Numbers within states represent cumulative installed wind capacity and, in brackets, annual additions in 2014
10

Texas Installed the Most Capacity in 2014;


9 States Exceed 12% Wind Energy
P e rc e n ta g e o f
In -St a t e G e n e r a t io n

In st a lle d C a p a c it y (M W )
A n n u a l (2 0 1 4 )
T e xa s
1 ,8 1 1
O k la h o m a
648
Io w a
511
M ic h ig a n
368
N e b r a sk a
277
W a s h in g t o n
267
C o lo r a d o
261
N o rth D ako ta
205
In d ia n a
201
C a lif o r n ia
107
M in n e s o t a
48
M a r y la n d
40
N e w M e x ic o
35
N ew Yo rk
26
M o n tan a
20
So u th D a k o ta
20
M a in e
9
O h io
0 .9
M a ssa c h u se tt s
0 .6
R e s t o f U .S .

TO TA L

4 ,8 5 4

C u m u la tiv e (e n d o f 2 0 1 4 )
Te xas
1 4 ,0 9 8
C a lif o r n ia
5 ,9 1 7
Io w a
5 ,6 8 8
O k la h o m a
3 ,7 8 2
I llin o is
3 ,5 6 8
O rego n
3 ,1 5 3
W a s h in g t o n
3 ,0 7 5
M in n e s o t a
3 ,0 3 5
K a n sa s
2 ,9 6 7
C o lo r a d o
2 ,5 9 3
N o rth D a ko ta
1 ,8 8 6
N ew Yo rk
1 ,7 4 8
I n d ia n a
1 ,7 4 5
M ic h ig a n
1 ,5 3 1
W y o m in g
1 ,4 1 0
P e n n s y lv a n ia
1 ,3 4 0
Id a h o
973
N e w M e x ic o
812
N e b rask a
812
So u th D a ko ta
803
R e s t o f U .S .
4 ,9 4 1

A ctu a l (2 0 1 4 )*
Io w a
2 8 .5 %
So u th D a ko ta
2 5 .3 %
K a n sa s
2 1 .7 %
Id a h o
1 8 .3 %
N o rth D ako ta
1 7 .6 %
O k la h o m a
1 6 .9 %
M in n e s o t a
1 5 .9 %
C o lo r a d o
1 3 .6 %
O re go n
1 2 .7 %
T e xa s
9 .0 %
W y o m in g
8 .9 %
M a in e
8 .3 %
N e w M e x ic o
7 .0 %
C a lif o r n ia
7 .0 %
N e b ra sk a
6 .9 %
M o n tan a
6 .5 %
W a s h in g t o n
6 .3 %
H a w a ii
5 .9 %
I llin o is
5 .0 %
V e rm o n t
4 .4 %
R e s t o f U .S .
0 .9 %

TO TA L

TO TA L

6 5 ,8 7 7

* B a s e d o n 2 0 1 4 w i n d a n d t o t a l g e n e r a t i o n b y s t a t e f r o m E I A s E l e c t r ic P o w e r M o n t h l y .

11

4 .4 %

Texas has more than twice


as much wind capacity as
any other state
23 states had >500 MW of
capacity at end of 2014
(16 > 1 GW, 10 > 2 GW)
2 states have >25% of
total in-state generation
from wind (9 states > 12%)

Interconnection Queues Demonstrate that


a Substantial Amount of Wind Is Under
Consideration
Wind represented 30% of capacity in sampled 35 queues
But absolute amount of wind (and coal & nuclear) in
sampled queues has declined in recent years whereas
natural gas and solar capacity has increased

Not all of this


capacity will
be built .

AWEA reports 13.6 GW of capacity under construction after 1Q2015


13

Larger Amounts of Wind Planned for


Texas, Midwest, Southwest Power Pool,
PJ M, and Northwest

14

Not all of this capacity will be built .

Imports of Wind Equipment Are Sizable;


Exports Continue to Grow Slowly
7

E x p o r ts o f W in d - P o w e r e d
G e n e r a tin g S e ts

O t h e r w i n d - r e l a t e d e q u i p m e n t ( e s t .)
W in d g e n e ra to rs (2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 4 )
T o w e rs (e s tim a te d th ro u g h 2 0 1 0 )
W in d -p o w e re d g e n e ra tin g s e ts

4
3
2
1
0

U.S. is a net importer


of wind equipment

W in d b la d e s a n d h u b s (2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 4 )

B illio n 2 0 1 4 $ U S

U S Im p o r ts :

2006
2457 M W

2007
5253 M W

2008
8362 M W

2009
10005 M W

2010
5216 M W

2011
6820 M W

2012
13131 M W

2013
1087 M W

2014
4854 M W

Exports of windpowered generating


sets increased
modestly in 2014 to
$488 billion; no ability
to track other windspecific exports, but
total tower exports
equalled $116 million

Figure only includes tracked trade categories; misses other wind-related imports
See full report for the assumptions used to generate this gure
20

The Project Finance Environment


Remained Strong in 2014
12%
10%

T a x E q u ity Y ie ld (a fte r-ta x )

8%
1 5 -Y e a r D e b t In te re st R a te (p re -ta x )
6%
4%
1 5 -Y e a r D e b t In te re st R a te (a fte r-ta x )

2%
0%
J a n -0 5

J a n -0 6

J a n -0 7

J a n -0 8

J a n -0 9

J a n -1 0

J a n -1 1

J a n -1 2

J a n -1 3

J a n -1 4

J a n -1 5

Project sponsors raised $5.8 billion of tax equity (largest single-year


amount on record) and $2.7 billion of debt in 2014
Tax equity yields held steady, while debt interest rates trended lower
24

100%

100%

90%

90%

80%

80%

70%

70%

60%

60%

50%

50%

40%

O n -S ite

40%

30%

P o w e r M a r k e te r

30%

M e r c h a n t/Q u a s i- M e r c h a n t

20%

10%

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

IO U
1999

0%

2 0 1 4 C a p a c ity b y
O ff-T a k e C a te g o r y

M e r c h a n t:
1 ,6 1 3 M W
(3 3 % )

0%

IO U :
2 ,4 9 7 M W
(5 1 % )

POU:
720 M W
(1 5 % )

20%

POU

10%

1998

% o f C u m u l a t i v e In s t a l l e d C a p a c i t y

Long-Term Contracted Sales to Utilities


Remained the Most Common Off-Take
Arrangement, but Merchant Projects
Continued to Expand, at Least in Texas

O n -S ite :
23 M W
(0 .5 % )

Recently announced wind purchases of ~2 GW from technology companies


and business giants to hospitals, universities, and government agencies
26

Turbine Nameplate Capacity, Hub Height,


and Rotor Diameter Have All Increased
Significantly Over the Long Term

28

2 0 1 4 C a p a city Fa cto r (b y p ro je ct v in ta ge )

Even Controlling for These Factors,


Average Capacity Factors for Projects
Built After 2005 Have Been Stagnant,
Averaging 32% to 35% Nationwide
60%

W e ig h te d A v e ra g e (b y p r o je c t v in ta g e )
In d iv id u a l P ro je c t (b y p r o je c t v in t a ge )

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Sa m p le in c lu d e s 5 9 1 p r o je c ts t o t a lin g 5 8 .5 G W

0%
V in ta g e : 1 9 9 8 -9 9 2 0 0 0 -0 1 2 0 0 2 -0 3 2 0 0 4 -0 5
27
38
28
# p r o je c t s: 2 5
1 ,7 6 0
1 ,9 8 8
3 ,6 5 2
# M W : 921
35

2006
20
1 ,7 0 8

2007
37
5 ,2 8 2

2008
79
8 ,4 9 8

2009
96
9 ,5 7 8

2010
48
4 ,7 3 3

2011
68
5 ,9 1 7

2012
117
1 3 ,5 3 3

2013
8
969

W e igh te d -A v g. R e a lize d C a p a c ity Fa c to r in 2 0 1 4

Controlling for Wind Resource Quality and


Commercial Operation Date Demonstrates
Impact of Turbine Evolution
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

H igh e st W in d R e so u rce Q u a lity


H igh e r W in d R e so u rc e Q u a lity
M e d iu m W in d R e so u rc e Q u a lity
Lo w e r W in d R e so u rc e Q u a lity
1 9 9 8 -9 9 2 0 0 0 -0 1 2 0 0 2 -0 3 2 0 0 4 -0 5 2 0 0 6

2007 2008
P r o je c t V in ta ge

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Notwithstanding build-out of lower-quality wind resource sites, turbine design changes


are driving capacity factors higher for projects located in given wind resource regimes
38

Regional Variations in Capacity Factors


Reect the Strength of the Wind Resource
and Adoption of New Turbine Technology
2 0 1 4 C a p a c it y Fa c t o r

60%
50%

W e igh te d A v e ra ge (b y re gio n )
W e igh te d A v e ra ge (to ta l U .S.)
In d iv id u a l P ro je ct (b y re gio n )

40%
30%
20%
10%
Sa m p le in clu d e s 1 2 4 p ro je cts b u ilt in 2 0 1 2 -1 3 a n d to ta lin g 1 4 .4 G W
0%

39

W e st
3 2 p ro je cts
3 ,9 3 8 M W

N o rth e a st
1 5 p ro je cts
1 ,1 4 7 M W

G re a t La k e s
1 8 p ro je cts
2 ,1 0 9 M W

In te rio r
5 9 p ro je cts
7 ,2 5 3 M W

Wind PPA Prices Have Reached All-Time


Lows, Dominated by Interior Region
In te rio r (2 0 ,6 1 1 M W , 2 1 2 c o n tra c ts)
W e st (7 ,1 2 4 M W , 7 2 c o n tra c ts)
G r e a t La k e s (3 ,6 2 0 M W , 4 8 co n tra cts)
N o rth e a st (1 ,0 1 8 M W , 2 5 c o n tr a c ts)
So u th e a st (2 6 8 M W , 6 c o n tr a c ts)

$100
$80

150 M W

$40
$20

75 M W

J a n -1 5

J a n -1 4

J a n -1 3

J a n -1 2

J a n -1 1

J a n -1 0

J a n -0 9

J a n -0 8

J a n -0 7

J a n -0 6

J a n -0 5

J a n -0 4

J a n -0 3

J a n -0 2

J a n -0 1

J a n -0 0

J a n -9 9

J a n -9 8

J a n -9 7

$0

P P A E x e c u tio n D a te
49

50 M W

$60

J a n -9 6

Le v e lize d P P A P r ic e (2 0 1 4 $ / M W h )

$120

A v e ra ge Le v e lize d P P A P rice (R e a l 2 0 1 4 $ / M W h )

A Smoother Look at the Time Trend Shows


Steep Decline in Pricing Since 2009;
Especially Low Pricing in Interior Region
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10

$0
P P A Y e a r: 1 9 9 6 -9 9 2 0 0 0 -0 1 2 0 0 2 -0 3 2 0 0 4 -0 5
10
17
24
30
C o n tr a c ts:
1 ,2 4 9
1 ,3 8 2
2 ,1 9 0
M W : 553
50

N a tio n w id e

In t e r io r

G re a t La k e s

W e st

N o rth e a st
2006
30
2 ,3 1 1

2007
26
1 ,7 8 1

2008
39
3 ,4 6 5

2009
49
4 ,0 4 8

2010
48
4 ,6 4 2

2011
42
4 ,5 7 2

2012
14
985

2013
26
3 ,6 7 4

2014
13
1 ,7 6 8

Relative Competitiveness of Wind Power


Improved in 2014: Comparison to
Wholesale Electricity Prices
100

W in d p ro je c t sa m p le in c lu d e s p ro je c ts
w ith P P A s sign e d fro m 2 0 0 3 -2 0 1 4

90
80
2014 $/ M W h

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

N a tio n w id e W h o le sa le P o w e r P ric e R a n ge (b y ca le n d a r y e a r)
G e n e ra tio n -W e igh te d A v e ra ge Le v e lize d W in d P P A P rice (b y y e a r o f P P A e x e cu tio n )

P P A y e a r: 2 0 0 3
C o n tra cts: 9
M W : 570
51

2004
13
547

2005
17
1 ,6 4 3

2006
30
2 ,3 1 1

2007
26
1 ,7 8 1

2008
39
3 ,4 6 5

2009
49
4 ,0 4 8

2010
48
4 ,6 4 2

2011
42
4 ,5 7 2

2012
14
985

2013
26
3 ,6 7 4

2014
13
1 ,7 6 8

Wholesale price range reflects flat block of power across 23 pricing nodes across the U.S.
Price comparison shown here is far from perfect see full report for caveats

2014 $/ M W h

Comparison Between Wholesale Prices


and Wind PPA Prices Varies by Region
100

A v e ra g e 2 0 1 4 W h o le sa le P o w e r P ric e R a n g e

90

In d iv id u a l P ro je c t Le v e lize d W in d P P A P ric e

80

G e n e ra tio n -W e igh te d A v e r a ge Le v e lize d W in d P P A P rice

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

W in d p ro je c t sa m p le in clu d e s p ro je c ts w ith P P A s sign e d in 2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 4


In te rio r
3 7 p ro je cts
5 ,2 7 5 M W

G re a t La k e s
1 0 p ro je cts
755 M W

N o rth e a st
1 p ro je c t
69 M W

W e st
5 p ro je c ts
329 M W

T o ta l U S
5 3 p r o je cts
6 ,4 2 7 M W

Wind PPA prices most competitive with wholesale


prices in the Interior region
52

Notes: Wind PPAs


included are those
signed from 20122014. Within a
region there are a
range of wholesale
prices because
multiple price hubs
exist in each area;
price comparison
shown here is far
from perfect see
full report for
caveats

Recent Wind Prices Are Hard to Beat:


Competitive with Expected Future Cost of
Burning Fuel in Natural Gas Plants
100

R a n ge o f A E O 1 5 ga s p ric e p ro je c tio n s
A E O 1 5 re fe re n c e ca se ga s p ric e p ro je ctio n
W in d 2 0 1 2 P P A e x e c u tio n (9 8 5 M W , 1 4 c o n tra cts)
W in d 2 0 1 3 P P A e x e c u tio n (3 ,6 7 4 M W , 2 6 c o n tra c ts)
W in d 2 0 1 4 P P A e x e c u tio n (1 ,7 6 8 M W , 1 3 c o n tra c ts)

90

2014 $/ M W h

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10

2040

2039

2038

2037

2036

2035

2034

2033

2032

2031

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Price comparison shown here is far from perfect see full report for caveats
53

State Policies Help Direct the Location


and Amount of Wind Development, but
Current Policies Cannot Support
Continued Growth at Recent Levels
WA: 15% by 2020
OR: 25% by 2025
( la r g e u t ilitie s )
5 -1 0 % b y 2 0 2 5
( s m a lle r u t ilit ie s )

CA: 33% by 2020

M T: 1 5 % b y 2 0 1 5

NV: 25% by 2025

M N : 2 6 .5 % b y 2 0 2 5
X c e l: 3 1 . 5 % b y 2 0 2 0
W I: 1 0 % b y 2 0 1 5

NY: 30% by 2015


P A : 8 .5 % b y 2 0 2 0
M I: 1 0 % b y 2 0 1 5
O H : 1 2 .5 % b y 2 0 2 6

IA : 1 0 5 M W b y 1 9 9 9
IL : 2 5 % b y 2 0 2 5
MO: 15% by 2021
C O : 3 0 % b y 2 0 2 0 ( IO U s )
2 0 % b y 2 0 2 0 (c o -o p s )
1 0 % b y 2 0 2 0 ( m u n is )

AZ: 15% by 2025


N M : 2 0 % b y 2 0 2 0 (IO U s )
1 0 % b y 2 0 2 0 (c o -o p s )
T X : 5 ,8 8 0 M W b y 2 0 1 5
H I: 1 0 0 % b y 2 0 4 5
S o u r c e: B e r k eley L a b

57

ME: 40% by 2017


N H : 2 4 .8 % b y 2 0 2 5
V T: 7 5 % b y 2 0 3 2
M A : 1 1 .1 % b y 2 0 0 9
+ 1 % /y r
R I: 1 6 % b y 2 0 1 9
C T: 2 3 % b y 2 0 2 0
DE: 25% by 2025
N J : 2 2 .5 % b y 2 0 2 0
DC: 20% by 2020
MD: 20% by 2022
N C : 1 2 .5 % b y 2 0 2 1
(IO U s ), 1 0 % b y 2 0 1 8
( c o - o p s a n d m u n is )

29 states and D.C.


have mandatory
RPS programs
State RPS can
support ~4-5 GW/yr
of renewable energy
additions on average
through 2025 (less
for wind specifically)

Solid Progress on Overcoming


Transmission Barriers Continued
Over 2,000 circuit miles of new transmission built in 2014; lower than 2013
but consistent with 2009-2012
22,000 additional circuit miles proposed by March 2017, with half having a
high probability of completion
AWEA has identified 18 near-term transmission projects that if all were
completed could carry 55-60 GW of additional wind power capacity
FERC continued to
implement Order 1000,
requiring public utility
transmission providers to
improve planning
processes and determine a
cost allocation
methodology for new
transmission investments
58

System Operators Are Implementing


Methods to Accommodate Increased
Penetrations of Wind
$20
$18

In t e g r a tio n C o s t ( $ /M W h )

Integrating wind
energy into
power systems
is manageable,
but not free of
additional costs

$16
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

W in d P e n e t r a t io n ( C a p a c it y B a s is )

60%

70%

A P S (2 0 0 7 )
A v is ta ( 2 0 0 7 )
B P A (2 0 0 9 ) [a ]
B P A (2 0 1 1 ) [a ]
B P A (2 0 1 3 )
C A R P S (2 0 0 6 ) [b ]
E R C O T (2 0 1 2 )
E W IT S ( 2 0 1 0 )
Id a h o P o w e r (2 0 0 7 )
Id a h o P o w e r (2 0 1 2 )
M N -M IS O (2 0 0 6 ) [c ]
N e b ra s k a (2 0 1 0 )
N o r th W e s te r n ( 2 0 1 2 )
P a c ific o r p ( 2 0 0 5 )
P a c ific o r p ( 2 0 0 7 )
P a c ifiC o r p ( 2 0 1 0 )
P a c ifiC o r p ( 2 0 1 2 )
P a c ifC o r p ( 2 0 1 4 )
P o rtla n d G E (2 0 1 1 )
P o rtla n d G E (2 0 1 3 )
P u g e t S o u n d E n e rg y (2 0 0 7 )
S P P -S E R C (2 0 1 1 )
W e E n e r g ie s ( 2 0 0 3 )
X c e l- M N D O C ( 2 0 0 4 )
X c e l- P S C o ( 2 0 0 6 )
X c e l- P S C o ( 2 0 0 8 )
X c e l- P S C o ( 2 0 1 1 ) [d ]
X c e l- U W IG ( 2 0 0 3 )

Notes: Because methods vary and a consistent set of operational impacts has not been
included in each study, results from the different analyses of integration costs are not fully
comparable. There has been some recent literature questioning the methods used to estimate
wind integration costs and the ability to disentangle those costs explicitly, while also highlighting
the fact that other generating options also impose integration challenges and costs.
59

Sizable Wind Additions Anticipated for


2015 & 2016; Downturn and Increased
Uncertainty in 2017 and Beyond

Wind additions in 2014 and anticipated additions from 2017-2020 fall


below the deployment trajectory analyzed in DOEs Wind Vision report
61

Current Low Prices for Wind, Future


Technological Advancement and New EPA
Regulations May Support Higher Growth
in Future, but Headwinds Include
Lack of clarity about fate of federal tax incentives
Continued low natural gas and wholesale electricity prices
Modest electricity demand growth
Limited near-term demand from state RPS policies
Inadequate transmission infrastructure in some areas
Growing competition from solar in some regions
62

Utility-Scale Solar 2014


An Empirical Analysis of
Project Cost, Performance,
and PricingTrends in the
United States
Mark Bolinger & JoachimSeel
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
September 30th 2015

Thisresearchwassupportedby fundingfromthe
U.S. Department of EnergysSunShot Initiative.

Total utility-scale solar project universe


is dominated by PV projects
PV project population: 192 projects totaling6,201 MWAC
This populations characteristics are described in the next few slides

CPV project population: 2 projects totaling35 MWAC


Both almost 4 years old, use Amonix high-concentration technology, are sited in
similarly excellent solar resource areas, and have inverter loading ratios of ~1.17

CSPproject population: 16 projects totaling1,773 MWAC


After nearly 400 MWAC built in the late-1980s (and early-1990s), no new CSP was
built in the U.S. until 2007 (68 MWAC), 2010 (75 MWAC), and 2013-2015 (1,237 MWAC)
Prior to the large 2013-15 build-out, all utility-scale CSP projects in the U.S. used
parabolic trough collectors
The five 2013-2015 projects include 3 parabolic troughs (one with 6 hours of storage)
totaling 750 MWAC (net) and two power tower projects (one with 10 hours of
storage) totaling 487 MWAC (net)
3

Historically heavy concentration in the Southwest


and mid-Atlantic, but now spreading to Southeast
Primarily fixed-tilt
c-Si projects in the
East
Tracking (c-Si and,
increasingly, thinfilm) is more
common in the
Southwest
Total MW share:
1)

CA 59%

2)

AZ 17%

3)

NV 5%

4)

NM 4%

5)

TX 3%
4

Median installed price of PV has fallen steadily, by more


than 50%, to around $3/WAC ($2.3/W DC ) in 2014
10

C a p a c ity -W e igh te d A v e r a ge (D C )
M e d ia n (D C )
In d iv id u a l P ro je c ts (D C )
C a p a c ity -W e igh te d A v e r a ge (A C )
M e d ia n (A C )
In d iv id u a l P ro je c ts (A C )

In sta lle d P ric e (2 0 1 4 $ / W )

9
8
7
6

230MW
350MW
155MW
586MW

5
4
3
2
1
0

2 0 0 7 -2 0 0 9
n =5 (7 5 M W -A C )

2010
n =1 0 (1 7 5 M W -A C )

2011
n =2 9 (4 2 8 M W -A C )

2012
2013
2014
n =3 8 (8 7 5 M W -A C ) n =3 3 (1 ,2 6 9 M W -A C ) n =5 5 (3 ,0 5 2 M W -A C )

In sta lla tio n Ye a r

Installed prices are shown here in both DC and AC terms, but because AC is more relevant to the utility
sector, all metrics used in the rest of this slide deck are expressed solely in AC terms
The lowest 20th percentile fell from $3.2/WAC in 2013 to $2.3/WAC in 2014
Capacity-weighted average prices were pushed higher in 2014 by several very large projects that had
been under construction for several years (but only entered our sample in 2014, once complete)
This sample is backward-looking and may not reflect the price of projects built in 2015/2016
8

Installed price decline led primarily by c-Si


9

F ix e d -T ilt c -Si
F ix e d -T ilt T h in -Film
CPV

In sta lle d P rice (2 0 1 4 $ / W A C )

8
7

T r a c k in g c -Si
T r a c k in g T h in -Film
A ll P V

6
5
4
3
2
1
0

M a r k e r s r e p r e s e n t m e d ia n s, w it h 2 0 t h a n d 8 0 t h p e r c e n t ile s .

2 0 0 7 -2 0 0 9
n =5 (7 5 M W -A C )

2010
n =1 0 (1 7 5 M W -A C )

2011
n =2 9 (4 2 8 M W -A C )

2012
n =3 8 (8 7 5 M W -A C )

2013
2014
n =3 3 (1 ,2 6 9 M W -A C ) n =5 5 (3 ,0 5 2 M W -A C )

In sta lla tio n Ye a r

Pricing has converged among the various mounting/module configurations over time
Not surprisingly, tracking appears to be slightly more expensive than fixed-tilt (at least for c-Si)
Large 80/20 range of fixed-tilt thin-film in 2014 reflects several mega-projects with high prices
The two CPV projects built in 2011 and 2012 were priced similar to PV at the time
9

Sy ste m C o st o r P ric e (2 0 1 4 $ / W -D C )

Bottom-up modeled installed prices


are lower than our empirical data
$ 2 .5
$ 2 .0

2 .3 7
0 .1 4

2 .2 5
0 .4 6

0 .8 2
0 .5 2

$ 1 .5
$ 1 .0
$ 0 .5

0 .5 8

1 .9 9

1 .9 9

0 .3 3

0 .3 6

0 .3 4

1 .8 8
0 .3 6
0 .2 6

0 .5 9

0 .4 3

0 .4 8

0 .1 8

0 .1 3

0 .1 3

0 .2 7
0 .1 1

0 .6 6

0 .7 1

0 .7 1

0 .6 6

0 .3 7
0 .1 8
0 .7 2

$ 0 .0
L B N L 2 0 1 4 2 5 M W - D C S in g le A x is T r a c k in g P r o j e c t P r ic e in
So u th w e st

M o d u le s

In v e rte r

N R E L 2 0 1 4 2 0 M W - D C S in g le - N R E L 2 0 1 4 1 0 0 M W - D C S in g le - B N E F Q 4 2 0 1 4 U t ilit y P r o j e c t in
A x is T r a c k in g P r o j e c t C o s t in A x is T r a c k in g P r o je c t C o s t (U .S . C a lif o r n ia ( in c l. D e v e lo p e r
S o u t h w e s t w it h U n io n L a b o r
N a t io n a l A v e r a g e )
M a r g in s )

T ra c k e r, Stru c tu ra l B O S, In te rc o n n e ctio n , T ra n sm issio n

G T M H 2 2 0 1 4 1 0 M W -D C
S in g le - A x is T r a c k in g P r o je c t
C o s t in C a lif o r n ia (e x c l.
D e v e lo p m e n t )

D e sign , E P C , La b o r, P II

O th e r

Prices presented here in DC terms, to be consistent with how presented by NREL, BNEF, GTM
Empirical LBNL project (far left) is most-expensive at $2.37/WDC, despite reporting among the lowest module costs
($0.66/WDC)
Largest discrepancy is in EPC category perhaps reflecting forward-looking modeling vs. backward-looking empirical
data (sample LBNL project achieved commercial operation in 2014)
There are also discrepancies in terms of what costs are captured by the various modeled estimates relative to the
empirical data (e.g., development costs, financing costs)
There is fairly substantial variation even among the various bottom-up modeled estimates
11

Not much movement in the installed price of CSP

Small sample of 6 projects (4 built in 2013-14) makes it hard to identify trends


That said, there does not appear to be much of a trend CSP prices seem to be moving
sideways (in contrast to PVs downward trend)
To be fair, newest projects are much larger, and include storage and/or new technology
(power tower) in some cases, making comparisons difficult
12

27.5%average sample-wide PV net capacity factor,


but with large project-level range (from 15%-35%)
C a p a c ity -W e igh te d A v e ra g e (a ll p ro je c ts)
In d iv id u a l P ro je ct (c -Si)
In d iv id u a l P ro je ct (th in -film )

30%
25%
20%

AC

th a t c a m e o n lin e fro m 2 0 0 7 -2 0 1 3

Fix e d -T ilt

So la r re so u rc e o f <4 .7 5 k W h / m 2 / d a y

Fix e d -T ilt

T ra c k in g

So la r re so u rc e o f 4 .7 5 -5 .5 k W h / m 2 / d a y

Fix e d -T ilt

1 3 p ro je c ts

1 .2 -1 .2 7 5 4 6 5 M W

1 5 p ro je cts

ILR <1 .2 1 8 2 M W

8 p ro je c ts

ILR 1 .2 7 5 6 4 8 M W

9 p ro je c ts

1 .2 -1 .2 7 5 4 9 2 M W

2 p ro je c ts
19 M W

ILR <1 .2

6 p ro je c ts

ILR 1 .2 7 5 1 5 0 M W

1 p ro je c t

1 .2 -1 .2 7 5 2 6 M W

9 p ro je c ts

ILR <1 .2 1 2 2 M W

8 p ro je c ts

ILR 1 .2 7 5 1 2 5 M W

5 p ro je c ts

1 .2 -1 .2 7 5 1 0 0 M W

4 p ro je c ts

T ra c k in g

ILR <1 .2 5 9 M W

ILR 1 .2 7 5

3 p ro je c ts

1 .2 -1 .2 7 5 3 6 M W

4 p ro je c ts

ILR <1 .2 6 7 M W

6 p ro je cts

ILR 1 .2 7 5 8 9 M W

1 0 p ro je c ts
89 M W

0%

1 .2 -1 .2 7 5

5%

1 1 p ro je c ts

10%

1 4 p r o je c ts
377 M W

Sa m p le in c lu d e s 1 2 8 p ro je c ts to ta lin g 3 ,2 0 1 M W

ILR 1 .2 7 5

15%

ILR <1 .2 1 5 6 M W

C u m u la tiv e N e t C a p a c ity Fa c to r

35%

T ra ck in g

So la r r e so u rc e o f 5 .5 k W h / m 2 / d a y

Project-level variation in PV capacity factor isdriven by:


Solar Resource(GHI): Highest resource bin has ~8%higher capacity factor than lowest
Tracking: Adds ~4%to capacity factor on average across all three resource bins
Inverter LoadingRatio (ILR): Highest ILR bins have ~4%higher capacity factor than lowest
Module type: No discernible pattern between c-Si and thin-film
The two CPV projects (see green stars) have underperformed relative to similarly configured PV projects
14

300

C P V (3 5 M W , 2 co n tra cts )

250

M ix o f P V / C P V (7 M W , 1 c o n tr a c t)

550 M W

C SP (1 ,3 4 2 M W , 5 co n t ra c ts)

200
150

210
MW

100

J a n -1 5

J a n -1 3

J a n -1 2

J a n -1 1

J a n -1 0

J a n -0 9

J a n -0 8

J a n -0 7

J a n -1 4

150 M W

P P A E x e c u tio n D a te
G e n e ra tio n -W e igh te d A v e ra ge

250

In d iv id u a l C o n tra c t

200
150

Smaller projects (e.g., 20


MW) no less competitive
CPV and CSP largely
competitive at the time, but
little visibility recently
>75%of the sample is
currently operational

100
50

0
P P A Ye ar: 2 0 0 6
C o n tra c ts: 1
MW: 7

PPA prices are levelized over


the full term of the contract,
after accounting for any
escalation rates and/or
time-of-delivery factors
Strong/steady downward
price trend since 2006

50

300
Le v e lize d P P A P ric e (R e a l 2 0 1 4 $ / M W h )

P V (7 ,2 3 4 M W , 1 0 0 c o n tra c ts)

32 M W

J a n -0 6

Le v e lize d P P A P ric e (R e a l 2 0 1 4 $ / M W h )

Levelized PPA prices have fallen by


more than two-thirds since 2009

2007
1
5

2008
3
770

2009
16
1 ,7 3 8

2010
29
1 ,9 5 6

2011
12
1 ,4 5 7

2012
10
861

2013
15
492

2014
9
449

2015
12
885

Broadening of the market in


2015 (AR, AL, FL)
17

250

200

~70%of PV sample has flat


annual PPA pricing (in nominal
dollars), while the rest
escalate at low rates

2 0 0 6 (7 M W , 1 P P A )

2007
(5 M W , 1 P P A )

2 0 0 9 (9 5 6 M W , 1 3 P P A s)

2 0 0 8 (7 7 0 M W , 3 P P A s)

150
2 0 1 0 (1 ,6 7 6 M W , 2 8 P P A s)

Thus, average PPA prices


decline over time in real
dollar terms (top graph)

100
2 0 1 1 (1 ,1 7 7 M W , 1 1 P P A s)

2 0 1 3 (4 9 2 M W , 1 5 P P A s)

50

2 0 1 2 (8 6 1 M W , 1 0 P P A s)

2 0 1 4 (4 4 9 M W , 9 P P A s)

2 0 1 5 (8 8 5 M W , 1 2 P P A s)

2050

2048

2046

2044

2042

2040

2038

2036

2034

2032

2030

2028

2026

2024

2022

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

0
2006

G e n -W e igh te d A v e r a ge P P A P r ic e (2 0 1 4 $ / M W h )

PV PPA prices generally decline over time in real


dollar terms, in contrast to fuel cost projections

80
70

50
40
30

2040

2039

2038

2037

2036

2035

2034

2033

2032

2031

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2017

2016

2019

10

2018

O v e ra ll ra n ge o f A E O 2 0 1 5 g a s p rice p ro je ctio n s (co n v e rte d to $ / M W h te rm s)


A E O 2 0 1 5 re fe re n c e c a se ga s p rice p ro je ctio n (co n v e rte d to $ / M W h te rm s)
A v e ra g e p rice o v e r tim e a m o n g sa m p le o f P V P P A s sig n e d in 2 0 1 4 (9 c o n tra c ts, 4 4 9 M W )
A v e ra g e p rice o v e r tim e a m o n g sa m p le o f P V P P A s sig n e d in 2 0 1 5 (1 2 co n tra c ts, 8 8 5 M W )

20

2015

2014 $/ M W h

60

Bottom graph compares 2014and 2015-vintage PPA prices


to range of gas price
projections from AEO 2015,
showing that
PV can compete with even
just the fuel costs of gas-fired
generation, and also provides
a long-term hedge against
potential fuel cost increases
18

Apparent deep market at these low PPA prices


Austin Energy:
600 MW solar RFP received 7,976 MW response (33 bidders, 149 proposals)
Almost 1,300 MW were offered at levelized prices of $45/MWh or less.

Southwestern Public Service:


200 MW solar RFP received 5,250 MW response
~3,000 MW priced at $40-50/MWh, ~1,800 MW priced at $50-60/MWh (levelized)

NV Energy:
200 MW renewable RFP received 2,537 MW response (90%of which was PV)
Two 100 MW winners ~$40/MWh levelized; others reportedly at similar prices

Idaho Power and Rocky Mountain Power:


These two Idaho and Utah utilities have been inundated with >2,000 MW of requests for
avoided cost PURPA contracts at prices of ~$50-70/MWh

Acrossthe South:
Recently announced PPAs in Alabama ($61/MWh), Arkansas (~$50/MWh), Georgia
(~$65/MWh), Florida ($70/MWh)
19

Looking ahead: utility-scale pipeline has grown, driven by an


expanding market outside of the Southwest
E n te r e d q u e u e in 2 0 1 4

Graphs show solar and other capacity in 35


interconnection queues across the US:

T o ta l in q u e u e a t e n d o f 2 0 1 4
N a m e p la te C a p a city (G W )

N a m e p la te So la r C a p a c ity (G W )

20

15

10

150

Inset compares solar to other resources


Main graph shows location of solar

100
50
0

G as

W in d

So la r

N u cle a r

Co al

O th e r

0
C a lifo rn ia

So u th w e st
Texas
(N V , A Z, U T , C O , N M )

So u th e a st

C e n tra l

N o rth e a st

N o rth w e st

44.6 GW of solar was in the queues at the end of 2014 (up from 39.5 GW at end of 2013): more than 5
timesthe installed solar capacity in our project population at the end of 2014
Solar was in third place in the queues, behind natural gas and wind
Expandingmarket: Texas and Southeast had more new entrants than California or Southwest in 2014;
other three regions saw an unprecedented influx of new solar capacity in 2014 as well
Not all of thiscapacity will be built! (but much of what is will likely be built prior to 2017)
21

HYDROGEN FUEL CELL maritime use

Lighting quality factors

Nature,
global
clusters
networks

Nature 2015

Nature 2015

NZE neighborhood design

onion-like nanoparticle converts infrared energy to electricity, 2015

pierre-jean cherret continuous energy mgnt

pierre-jean cherret home area network

In the next three years, China plans to shutter 4,300 coal


mines, eliminate outdated production capacity of 700
million tons and relocate 1 million employees, according
to the report. The central government has earmarked
CNY 30 billion ($4.57 billion) for the relocation.
In the past ve years, China has cut some 560 million
tons of coal production capacity and closed 7,250 coal
mines, according to the National Coal Association.
China had approximately 11,000 coal mines at the end of
2015 with a total capacity of 5.7 billion tons. Of these,
around 1,000 had annual capacity of more than 1.2
million tons some 400 more than in 2010.
The country is nevertheless leading the way in embracing
green energy. China was the biggest investor in clean
energy last year, channeling $110.5 billion into the sector
and accounting for 17% of the total global clean energy
investment.
http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/china-

Leadership Change
Capacity

100

0
0

CHANGE READINESS
MATRIX
100 PERCENT
SOLAR/WIND/EFF

Ready for
Learning

Ready for
Change

Ready for
Resistanc
e

Ready for
Frustratio
n

Organization Change 100

http://www.ascd.org/publications/books/109019/chapters/The-Organizational-Change-Readiness-

Leadership Change
Capacity

100

0
0

CHANGE READINESS
MATRIX

Ready for
Learning

Ready for
Change

Ready for
Resistanc
e

Ready for
Frustratio
n

Organization Change 100


Capacity
http://www.ascd.org/publications/books/109019/chapters/The-Organizational-Change-Readiness-

POLITICAL POWER corruption


CORPORATE GREED Corruption
MEDIA LYING Corruption

Leadership Change
Capacity

100

0
0

CHANGE READINESS
MATRIX

Ready for
Learning

Ready for
Change

Ready for
Resistanc
e

Ready for
Frustratio
n

Organization Change 100


Capacity
http://www.ascd.org/publications/books/109019/chapters/The-Organizational-Change-Readiness-

CITIZEN DEMOCRACY
VS
PLUTOCRATIC OLIGARCHY

Deriving Energy Services varying footprint sizes

10,000 ft2 per capita


required to grow meatcentered American
annual diet

1000 ft2 per capita


required to grow
vegetarian-centered
American annual diet

Deriving Energy Services varying footprint sizes


1 gallon of gasoline
required 4 hectares
(430,373 ft2)
of fossilized sunlight to
produce

10,000 ft2 per


capita required to
grow meatcentered American
annual diet 2

1000 ft per capita required to grow


vegetarian-centered American
annual diet
Hectare = 2.47 acres Acre = 43,560 ft2

Deriving Energy Services varying footprint sizes

Bicycle
2500 miles per gallon
(mpg)
(in kilocalories of food)

25 mpg the average


fuel efficiency new
global car.

Deriving Energy Services varying footprint sizes

Construction Tools

Disruption Tools