Stock and Flow

(sources for pictures taken from textbook not

mentioned to reduce clutter)

Limitations of CLD
hard to visualize how the system evolves
in presence of multiple interacting loops
the road-construction vs. traffic example
road
construction +

DELAY
+
road capacity

Traffic volume
depends on congestion,
closing several
feedback loops that
cause traffic to
traffic volume
+
increase whenever new
+
+
roads are built

pressure to reduce
+congestion

B1

travel time

B2

+
attractiveness of driving
+

trips per day +

-

Limitations of CLD
hard to understand how the system works
consider a factory

Stock and Flow Diagram:

Inflow

Stock

Outflow

Hydraulic Metaphor:

Differential Equation:

Integral Equation: ???

re integral and differential views equivalent?

Stocks and Flow Representation

Flow is the rate of change of stock

Identifying Stocks and

Flows
stocks are fundamental quantities that
characterize the state of the system
these characterize a snapshot of the system and
can be measured in that snap-shot
stocks provide the system with inertia and
memory
Identify the stocks in following scenarios

Stocks and Flow

stocks provide system with inertia and memory:
past actions affect the present
soil fertility
nuclear arms stockpile

Flow is the rate of change of stock : stock/time

arms procurement rate
material arrival/shipment rate
soil degradation/regeneration rate

Stocks only change by flows

what are the stocks in this example

car

pollution

Identifying Stocks and

Flows
stocks are fundamental quantities that characterize the state
of the system
stocks provide the system with inertia and memory

+
news of leaders
corruption

peoples apathy
to politics

Stocks can be soft/abstract quantities: apathy

Drawing SFD
A simple savings account

Drawing SFD
In general, it helps to draw a CLD first.
Draw the simplest possible SFD of population
dynamics
first draw the CLD
then draw the SFD

Note that the causal loops have disappeared

Conservation of Stock
Stocks remain in place till depleted by a flow
A stock cannot simply disappear
A flow either moves the extracted stock to another
stock
or it converts the extracted stock into some other
quantity

Think about the stock of water on earth

Draw the SFD

What are the missing stocks here

 Did you hear the rumors of ICICI bankruptcy, few

years back
You go to your nearest branch, and they say that
they do not have enough cash for you to empty
your account

Understanding the SFD in more detail

Stock of money is conserved at least in the short run

 Consider your previous population model

Suppose we conclude that Carrying Capacity of
the country cannot sustain this population growth
Suppose the entire country voluntarily decides to
adopt a two child policy
What do you think the graph of future population
looks like. Sketch the graph.

Population Dynamics in Detail

Disaggregation: You have to dis-aggregate the population stock

SFD: Precautions

SFD level of Aggregation: World Dynamics

quality of
environment

Miniworld

DAMAGE
THRESHOLD
INITIAL
POLLUTION

degradation

environ
pollution

REGENERATION
RATE

INITAL
POPULATION

births

population

regeneration

DEGRADATION
RATE

deaths

consumption
level

CONSUMPTION
GOAL

DEATH RATE

GROWTH RATE

BIRTH RATE
INITIAL
CAPACITY

BIRTH CONTROL

production
capacity

Source: Systems Zoo: Bossel

capacity
increase

A Disaggregated Model: World Dynamics

dependency ratio

population

initial population 0 to 14
reproductive
lifetime
births

<Time>

initial population 15 to 44
Population 0
To 14
maturation
14 to 15

mortality 0 to 14

maturation
44 to 45

Population
45 To 64

deaths 15 to 44
mortality 15 to 44

<one year>mortality 15 to 44
mortality 0 to 14
table
table
<life expectancy>

total fertility
deaths
<Time>

Population
15 To 44

deaths 0 to 14

population
equilibrium time

initial population 54 to 64

maturation
64 to 65
deaths 45 to 64

initial population 65 plus

Population
65 Plus

deaths 65 plus

mortality 65 plus

mortality 45 to 64
<one year>
mortality 45 to 64
table

life expectancy
<Time>

mortality 65 plus
table

SFD: Model Boundary

A mini Urban Dynamics model