Probability

Vocabulary:

Outcome one possible result of a probability.

Sample Space the list of possible outcomes
for a probability event.
Random outcomes that occur at random if
each outcome is equally likely to occur.
Simple Event a specific outcome or type of
outcome.
Complementary Events the events of one
outcome happening and that outcomes not
happening are complimentary; the sum of the
probabilities of complementary events is 1.

Probability of Simple Events

What is a PROBABILITY?
- Probability is the chance that some
event will happen
- It is the ratio of the number of
ways a certain event can occur to
the number of possible outcomes

Probability

Probability is a measure of how likely

an event is to occur.

For example
Today there is a 60% chance of
rain.
The odds of winning the lottery are
a million to one.
What are some examples you can
think of?

Probability of Simple Events

What is a PROBABILITY?
number of favorable outcomes
P(event)number
=
of possible outcomes

Examples that use Probability:

(1) Dice, (2) Coins, (3) Deck of Cards, (4)

Evens/Odds, (5) Alphabet, etc.

Probability of Simple Events

What is a PROBABILITY?
0%
0
Impossible

25%

50%

or .25
Not Very
Likely

75%

100%

0r .5

or .75

Equally Likely
Likely

Somewhat

1
Certain

Probability

Probabilities are written as:

Fractions from 0 to 1

Decimals from 0 to 1

Percents from 0% to 100%

Probability

If an event is certain to happen, then

the probability of the event is 1 or
100%.

If an event will NEVER happen, then

the probability of the event is 0 or
0%.

If an event is just as likely to happen

as to not happen, then the probability
of the event is , 0.5 or 50%.

Probability
Impossible
0

Unlikely

Equal Chances

0.5

0%

1
50%

Likely

100%

Certain

PROBABILITY

When a meteorologist states that

the chance of rain is 50%, the
meteorologist is saying that it is
equally likely to rain or not to rain.

If the chance of rain rises to 80%, it

is more likely to rain.

If the chance drops to 20%, then it

Probability

What are some events that will never

happen and have a probability of 0%?

What are some events that are certain

to happen and have a probability of
100%?

What are some events that have equal

chances of happening and have a
probability of 50%?

Probability

The probability of an event is written:

P(event) = number of ways event can

occur
total number of outcomes

Probability
P(event) = number of ways event can
occur
total number of outcomes

An outcome is a possible result of a

probability experiment

When rolling a number cube, the

possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and
6

Probability
P(event) = number of ways event can
occur
total number of outcomes

An event is a specific result of a

probability experiment

When rolling a number cube, the event

of rolling an even number is 3 (you
could roll a 2, 4 or 6).

Probability
P(event) = number of ways event can occur
total number of outcomes

What is the probability of getting heads when

flipping a coin?

P(heads) = number of ways = 1 head on a

coin = 1
total outcomes = 2 sides to a
coin = 2

Probability of Simple Events

Example 1: Roll a dice.
What is the probability of rolling a 4?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) =
# possible outcomes
1
P(rolling a 4) =
6
The probability of rolling a 4 is 1 out of 6

Probability of Simple Events

Example 2: Roll a dice.
What is the probability of rolling an even
number?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) =
# possible outcomes
3
1
P(even #) =
=
6
2
The probability of rolling an even number is 3 out of 6 or .5
or 50%

Probability of Simple Events

Example 3: Spinners.
What is the probability of spinning green?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) =
# possible outcomes
1
1
P(green) =
=
4
4
The probability of spinning green is 1 out of 4 or .25 or 25%

Probability of Simple Events

Example 4: Flip a coin.
What is the probability of flipping a tail?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) =
# possible outcomes
1
1
P(tail) =
=
2
2
The probability of spinning green is 1 out of 2 or .5 or 50%

Probability of Simple Events

Example 5: Deck of Cards.
What is the probability of picking a heart?
P(heart) =

# favorable outcomes

=
=
# possible outcomes

13

52
The probability of picking a heart is
1 out of 4 or .25 or 25%

1
4

What is the probability of picking a non heart?

# favorable outcomes

39

P(nonheart) = # possible outcomes

=
=52
The probability of picking a heart is
3 out of 4 or .75 or 75%

3
4

Probability of Simple Events

Key Concepts:
- Probability is the chance that some
event will happen
- It is the ratio of the number of
ways a certain even can occur to
the total number of possible
outcomes

Probability of Simple Events

Guided Practice:

Calculate the probability

of each independent event.

1) P(black) =
2) P(1) =
3) P(odd) =

Probability of Simple Events

Guided Practice:

Answers.

1) P(black) = /8
4

2) P(1) = 1/8
3) P(odd) = 1/2

Probability of Simple Events

Independent Practice:

Calculate the
probability of each independent event.

1) P(red) =
2) P(2) =
3) P(not red) =
4) P(even) =

Probability of Simple Events

Independent Practice:

1) P(red) = /2
1

2) P(2) = 1/4
3) P(not red) = 1/2
4) P(even) = /2
1

Answers.

Probability of Simple Events

Real World Example:
A

computer company manufactures 2,500

computers each day. An average of 100 of
these computers are returned with defects.
What is the probability that the computer
you purchased is not defective?

P(not defective) =
# not defective = 2,400 = 24
total # manufactured
2,500 25

TRY THESE:
B
C

A
D

1. What is the probability that the spinner will stop

on part A?

2.
3

1
2

A
C

What is the probability that the spinner will

stop on
(a) An even number?
(b) An odd number?

3. What is the probability that the spinner

will stop in the area marked A?

Probability Word Problem:

Lawrence is the captain of his track

team. The team is deciding on a color
and all eight members wrote their choice
down on equal size cards. If Lawrence
picks one card at random, what is the
probability that he will pick blue?

3/8 or 0.375 or
Number of blues =37.5%
3

Total cards
= 8 green
blue
yellow
red

blue

blue

black
black

Lets Work These Together

Donald is rolling a number cube

labeled 1 to 6. What is the
probability of the following?
a.) an odd number

3/6 = = 0.5 = 50%

odd numbers 1, 3, 5
total numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
1/6 = 0.166 = 16.6%

b.) a number greater than 5

numbers greater 6
total numbers
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6