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Determinants of Multiples
Earnings Multiples
Price/Earnings
Value/EBIT
Value/EBITDA
Value/Cash
Flow
Value/Replacement
Cost (Tobins Q)
Revenues
Price/Sales
Value/Sales
EPS:
year
PEG Ratio
Value/EBIT
Value/EBIT(1-t)
Value/FCFF
Value/EBITDA
Value/EBITDA Multiples
how
how
The multiple can be computed even for firms that are reporting net
losses, since earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation are
usually positive.
2. For firms in certain industries, such as cellular, which require a
substantial investment in infrastructure and long gestation periods,
this multiple seems to be more appropriate than the price/earnings
ratio.
3. In leveraged buyouts, where the key factor is cash generated by
the firm prior to all discretionary expenditures, the EBITDA is the
appropriate tool.
4. By looking at measure of cash flows from operations that can be
used to support debt payment at least in the short term.
5. By looking at cash flows prior to capital expenditures, it may
provide a better estimate of optimal value, especially if the
capital expenditures he value of the firm and cash flows to the
firm it allows for comparisons across firms with different financial
leverage.
PRICE/BOOK VALUE
Price/Book Value =
Valuation of Liabilities
Financial Factors
The value of the firm depends on the following three factors
Return on Equity
Cost of Equity
Growth Rate
P0/B=r-g/k-g
Thus,
TOBINS Q
bidders.
PRICE/SALES
Determined by
(a) Net Profit Margin: Net Income / Revenues. The price-sales ratio is
an increasing function of the net profit margin. Firms with higher
net margins, other things remaining equal, should trade at higher
price to sales ratios.
(b) Payout ratio during the high growth period and in the stable
period: The PS ratio increases as the payout ratio increases, for any
given growth rate.
(c) Riskiness (through the discount rate ke,g in the high growth period
and ke,st in the stable period): The PS ratio becomes lower as
riskiness increases, since higher risk translates into a higher cost of
equity.
(d) Expected growth rate in Earnings, in both the high growth and
stable phases: The PS increases as the growth rate increases, in
both the high growth and stable growth period.
DPS1
r gn
PS =
each
Information of comparable firms:
Particulars
A Ltd.
B Ltd.
Sales
80
120
PAT
12
18
Book value
40
90
Market value
120
150
C Ltd.
150
25
100
240
Particulars
Price /Sales ratio
Price/Earning ratio
Price/book value
A B
C Avg.
1.50 1.25 1.60 1.45
10.00 8.33 9.60 9.31
3.00 1.66 2.40 2.35
DPS1
r gn
FCFE1
r gn
P0
(FCFE/Earnings) * (1 g n )
PE =
EPS0
r-g n
A Simple Example
Variable
Stable
Growth
8%
Payout Ratio
20%
50%
Beta
1.00
1.00
0.2 * (1.25) * 1
5
(1.115) 0.5 * (1.25)5 * (1.08)
PE =
+
= 28.75
5
(.115 - .25)
(.115-.08) (1.115)
to
to
one.
The
There
Even
In
Definitional tests:
over
from
Is the earnings used to compute the PE ratio consistent with the growth rate
estimate?
No
If
looking at foreign stocks or ADRs, is the earnings used for the PE ratio
consistent with the growth rate estimate? (US analysts use the ADR EPS)
P0 =
PEG =
(1+ g) n
Payout Ratio*(1 + g) * 1
(1 + r) n
g(r - g)
Proposition 1: High risk companies will trade at much lower PEG ratios than
low risk companies with the same expected growth rate.
Corollary 1: The company that looks most under valued on a PEG ratio
basis in a sector may be the riskiest firm in the sector
Proposition 3: Companies with very low or very high growth rates will tend to
have higher PEG ratios than firms with average growth rates. This bias is
worse for low growth stocks.
(1+ g j )n
(1+ rm )n
Payout Ratiom,n * (1+ g m )n *(1 + gm, n )
+
rm - gm
(rm - gm, n )(1+ rm )n
where
decrease
the numerator is net of cash (or if net debt is used, then the
interest income from the cash should not be in denominator
The
V0 =
(1 + g) n
FCFF (1 + g) 1
0
n
(1+ WACC)
WACC - g
Value Multiples
V0
=
FCFF0
(1 + g) n
(1 + g) 1 (1 + WACC) n
WACC - g
(1+ g) n (1+ gn )
+
n
(WACC - gn )(1 + WACC)
net
EBITDA,
which is earnings
depreciation and amortization.
before
interest,
taxes,
multiple can be computed even for firms that are reporting net
losses, since earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation are
usually positive.
2. For firms in certain industries, such as cellular, which require a
substantial investment in infrastructure and long gestation periods,
this multiple seems to be more appropriate than the price/earnings
ratio.
3. In leveraged buyouts, where the key factor is cash generated by
the firm prior to all discretionary expenditures, the EBITDA is the
are unwise or earn substandard returns.
5. By looking at the measure of cash flows from operations that can
be used to support debt payment at least in the short term.
4. By looking at cash flows prior to capital expenditures, it may
provide a better estimate of optimal value, especially if the
capital expenditures he value of the firm and cash flows to the firm
it allows for comparisons across firms with different financial
leverage.
Value/EBITDA Multiple
Value
M arket Value of Equity + M arket Value of Debt
EBITDA
Earnings before Interest, Taxes and Depreciation
FCFF1
V0 =
WACC - g
Price/Book Value =
Consistency Tests:
If
If
DPS1
r gn
P0
ROE * Payout Ratio* (1 g n )
PBV =
BV 0
r-g
n
Overvalued
Low ROE
High M V/BV
High ROE
High M V/BV
ROE-r
Low ROE
Low M V/BV
Undervalued
High ROE
Low M V/BV
FCFF1
V0 =
WACC - g
V0
FCFF1 /BV
=
BV
WACC - g
V0
ROC - g
=
BV
WACC - g
Price/ Sales=
Consistency Tests
The
DPS1
r gn
P0
Net Profit M argin* Payout Ratio*(1 g n )
PS =
Sales 0
r-g
n
(1+
g)
EPS0 * Payout Ratio* (1 + g) * 1
(1+ r) n
EPS 0 * Payout Ration * (1+ g)n *(1+ g n )
P0 =
+
r -g
(r - g n )(1+ r) n
(1+ g) n
Net M argin * Payout Ratio* (1+ g) * 1
P0
(1+ r)n
Net M arginn * Payout Ration * (1+ g) n *(1 + gn )
=
+
Sales 0
r -g
(r - gn )(1 + r)n
Second,
The approaches used by analysts to value brand names are often ad-hoc and
may significantly overstate or understate their value.