Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
2009
Topics
1.
2.
3.
4.
2.
Liabilities
Assets
Equity
5
Liabilities
Assets
Equity
Current
liabilities
Current
assets
Non current
assets
Non current
liabilities
Equity
10
11
Will be
overstated
Liabilities
Will be
understated
Equity
Will be
wrong
Assets
12
Topics
1.
2.
3.
4.
13
1.
2.
3.
4.
Dir
Investor Banker
Sales
Profits
EPS
Cash
Cash flow
Net worth
Working capital
3
16
2.
3.
4.
Cash position
Receivables (future)
Billings (future)
Bookings orders received this period
Backlog orders unfilled at end of period
Headcount and turnover
Open to hires (positions to fill)
Updated weekly
Small companies simple, Excel based
Large companies complex, system generated
17
Financial dashboard
Wk 1
Wk 2
Wk 3
Wk 4
Cash position
10.2
11.7
12.2
12.3
Receivable position
4,982
3,487
2,853
2,820
807
812
946
1,013
Backlog
2,750
2,257
2,257
2,257
512
1,212
Headcount
127
127
127
123
Open to hires
18
Charts
Text
Numbers
This period
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flow statement
Balance sheet details
Form is substance
1.
2.
20
N $3m
60%
40%
W $2m
E $4m
East
West
North
South
20%
0%
S $1m
22
Plan
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Tot
10
10
10
10
10
50
Plan
J Act/Fcst
10
10
10
10
49
F Act/Fcst
44
Act
M Act/Fcst
10
42
Fcst
A Act/Fcst
40
23
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24
Collected
98%
25
Deficit
Assets
Assets
Liabs
Liabs
26
32
Accrued liabs
105
Deferred revenue
1,050
1,187
27
1.
Current investors
2.
Employees
3.
Topics
1.
2.
3.
4.
29
III Forecasts
1.
2.
3.
3. Expenses by department
4. Assumptions
32
2.
3.
Headcount
Other expenses, like travel, facilities and interest rates
33
Generate a balance sheet from the drivers for each line item
5.
A/r from DSO, inventory from turns, a/p from days payable
Fixed asset from cap spending (capital budget)
Debt from financing plans (banks, mezzanine)
Invested equity from financing plans (FFF, angel, VC)
Earned equity from the income statement
Process iteratively to get it right
6.
Checkbook format
34
1.
2.
3.
?
?
?
35
Profitability
$50
$50
$40
$40
$30
$30
$20
$20
$10
$10
$0
2003
2004
2005
2006
R
E
$0
2007
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Compound annual
growth rate
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
My co
36
Topics
1.
2.
3.
4.
37
IV -- Dynamic models
1.
2.
4.
38
Orig
Curr
$0.4
$0.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Cash
$200
$100
Orig
Curr
$0
-$100
D
39
Model background
1.
2.
Revenues $3.6m
Profitable -- $230k
Headcount increases from 14 to 26 this year
40
91%
15%
Commission rates
8%
$30,000
35%
$350,000
50 days
35 days
$3,000
60%
18%
Executive compensation
$100,000
41
One quarter
PLAN
$ effect on
cash of a
(10%) dif
Rank
$ effect on
cash of a
(10%) dif
91%
-127
-2
15%
-26
-3
Commission rates
8%
-10
+2
$30,000
-6
-1
35%
+6
+2
$350,000
-18
-5
50 days
-75
35 days
-55
-14
-16
$3,000
-2
--
60%
-3
-1
18%
-1
--
$100,000
-7
-2
Executive compensation
Rank
42
Probabilistic modeling
43
Cash forecast
Probabilistic
Traditional
$30
$30
$20
$20
$10
$10
$0
$0
D J F MA M J J A S O N D
Upper limit
Most likely
Lower limit
D J F MA M J J A S O N D
44
Cash forecast
"Real" worst case
Don't understimate worst case likelihood
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
D J F MA M J J A S O N D
45
46