MFGE 341

Quality Science Statistics

What do we remember?

The Next Step

Up to this point, we have only been
able to estimate a population
parameter.
Now, we will start testing a
previously made claim about a
population parameter

Hypothesis Tests
A process that uses sample statistics
to test a claim about the value of a
population parameter
To test is a hypothesis is wrong, you
first have to assume it is right.
It is innocent until proven guilty

Stating the Hypothesis

The first step in testing a hypothesis is
being able to state it correctly.
In addition, you need to state the
complement to the hypothesis
When one is false, the other is true

The two statements are the null

hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis
ALWAYS ASSUME THE NULL HYPOTHESIS
IS TRUE

Types of Error
Type I error
The null hypothesis is rejected, but it is
true

Type II error
The null hypothesis is not rejected, but it
is false

Level of Significance
We need to determine our maximum
allowable probability of making a
type I error
We call this the level of significance &
denote it
If is small, then the probability of
rejecting a true null hypothesis is also
small

P-values
A P-value in a hypothesis test is the
probability of obtaining a sample
statistic with a value as extreme or
more extreme than the one
determined from the sample data
If the P-value is smaller than then
reject the null hypothesis

Finding P
In order to find P, we first need to
determine what type of test we are
doing
To determine the test type, look at
the inequality in the alternative
hypothesis

7 Steps

State the hypotheses

Specify the level of significance
Determine the type of test
Calculate the test statistic
Find P
Decide whether to reject the null
hypothesis
Interpret your answer

The claim is the

null hypothesis

The claim is the

alternate
hypothesis

Reject the null

hypothesis

There is enough
evidence to reject
the claim

There is enough
evidence to
support the claim

Accept the null

hypothesis

There is not
enough evidence
to reject the claim

There is not
enough evidence
to support the
claim

Test for the Mean

Do
we know the population standard
deviation?
If the answer is yes, we can use a Z-test
to determine our P-value

Z=sample mean-population mean/

standard error

Requirements
We need to approximate a normal
distribution
Population needs to be normally
distributed or Sample Size needs to be
at least 30
Sample needs to be random
Population standard deviation is known

Performing the Test

We first make sure the requirements are
satisfied
Next we perform the steps for hypothesis
testing
When we need to find P, we use the Z value
Remember that P is twice the value that Z gives
us with a two tailed test

If P is less than or equal to we reject

If P is greater than we fail to reject

Rejection Regions
Another method of hypothesis
testing is to determine the range of
values for which the null hypothesis
is rejected.
These are called rejection regions

These regions have critical values

which form a boundary between the
rejection area and the non rejection
area

Using Rejection Regions

Go through the same process as
before, except
Instead of finding the area that
corresponds to a Z value, we draw a
graph and shade the rejection region

If our Z value falls in the shaded

area, we reject the null hypothesis

What is is Unknown
If
the population standard deviation
is not known, we need to use a t-test
instead of the z-test.

Remember d.f.=n-1

Standard Deviation/Variance
When

testing measures of variance,

we need to use the chi-square test
with the following test statistic
We need a random sample and
normally distributed population

Proportions
If
we are testing a proportion (think
binomial distribution) then we can
use a Z-test with the following test
statistic
As long as np and nq are at least 5