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4-1
Outline
Global Company Profile:
Walt Disney Parks & Resorts
What Is Forecasting?
The Strategic Importance of
Forecasting
Seven Steps in the Forecasting
System
Forecasting Approaches
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4-2
Outline - Continued
Time-Series Forecasting
Associative Forecasting Methods:
Regression and Correlation Analysis
Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts
Forecasting in the Service Sector
4-3
Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter you
should be able to :
1. Understand the three time horizons and
which models apply for each use
2. Explain when to use each of the four
qualitative models
3. Apply the naive, moving average,
exponential smoothing, and trend
methods
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4-4
Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter you
should be able to :
4. Compute three measures of forecast
accuracy
5. Develop seasonal indices
6. Conduct a regression and correlation
analysis
7. Use a tracking signal
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4-5
Forecasting Provides a
Competitive Advantage for Disney
2014
2014
Pearson
Pearson
Education,
Education,
Inc.Inc.
4-6
Forecasting Provides a
Competitive Advantage for Disney
2014
2014
Pearson
Pearson
Education,
Education,
Inc.Inc.
4-7
Forecasting Provides a
Competitive Advantage for Disney
2014
2014
Pearson
Pearson
Education,
Education,
Inc.Inc.
4-8
Forecasting Provides a
Competitive Advantage for Disney
2014
2014
Pearson
Pearson
Education,
Education,
Inc.Inc.
4-9
What is Forecasting?
Process of predicting a
future event
Underlying basis
of all business
decisions
Production
Inventory
Personnel
Facilities
??
4 - 10
2. Medium-range forecast
3 months to 3 years
3. Long-range forecast
3+ years
4 - 11
Distinguishing Differences
1. Medium/long range forecasts deal with more
comprehensive issues and support
management decisions regarding planning
and products, plants and processes
2. Short-term forecasting usually employs
different methodologies than longer-term
forecasting
3. Short-term forecasts tend to be more
accurate than longer-term forecasts
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 12
Staffing levels
Inventory levels
Factory capacity
4 - 13
Company Strategy/Issues
Growth
Best period to
increase market
share
Practical to change
price or quality
image
R&D engineering is
critical
Strengthen niche
Maturity
Decline
Poor time to
change image,
price, or quality
Cost control
critical
Competitive costs
become critical
Defend market
position
Drive-through
Internet search engines
restaurants
DVDs
Xbox 360
iPods
Boeing 787
Sales
3-D game
players
3D printers
Electric vehicles
Analog
TVs
Figure 2.5
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 14
OM Strategy/Issues
Growth
Product design
and development
critical
Forecasting critical
Standardization
Frequent product
and process
design changes
Product and
process reliability
Competitive
product
improvements and
options
Fewer product
changes, more
minor changes
Short production
runs
High production
costs
Limited models
Attention to quality
Increase capacity
Shift toward
product focus
Enhance
distribution
Maturity
Optimum capacity
Increasing stability
of process
Long production
runs
Product
improvement and
cost cutting
Decline
Little product
differentiation
Cost
minimization
Overcapacity in
the industry
Prune line to
eliminate items
not returning
good margin
Reduce
capacity
Figure 2.5
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 15
Types of Forecasts
1. Economic forecasts
2. Technological forecasts
3. Demand forecasts
4 - 16
Strategic Importance of
Forecasting
4 - 17
4 - 18
The Realities!
4 - 19
Forecasting Approaches
Qualitative Methods
New products
New technology
4 - 20
Forecasting Approaches
Quantitative Methods
Existing products
Current technology
4 - 21
2. Delphi method
4 - 22
4. Market Survey
4 - 23
Relatively quick
Group-think
disadvantage
4 - 24
Delphi Method
Iterative group
process, continues
until consensus is
reached
Staff
3 types of
(Administering
survey)
participants
Decision makers
Staff
Respondents
Decision Makers
(Evaluate responses
and make decisions)
Respondents
(People who can make
valuable judgments)
4 - 25
4 - 26
Market Survey
4 - 27
Overview of Quantitative
Approaches
1. Naive approach
2. Moving averages
3. Exponential
smoothing
4. Trend projection
5. Linear regression
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Time-series
models
Associative
model
4 - 28
Time-Series Forecasting
4 - 29
Time-Series Components
Trend
Cyclical
Seasonal
Random
4 - 30
Components of Demand
Demand for product or service
Trend
component
Seasonal peaks
Actual demand
line
Average demand
over 4 years
|
1
Random variation
|
|
2
3
Time (years)
|
4
Figure 4.1
4 - 31
Trend Component
4 - 32
Seasonal Component
PERIOD LENGTH
SEASON LENGTH
Week
Day
Month
Week
4 4.5
Month
Day
28 31
Year
Quarter
Year
Month
12
Year
Week
52
4 - 33
Cyclical Component
10
15
20
4 - 34
Random Component
M
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
T
F
T
4 - 35
Naive Approach
4 - 36
Moving average
n
4 - 37
January
10
February
12
March
13
April
16
May
19
June
23
(13 + 16 + 19)/3 = 16
July
26
August
30
September
28
October
18
(29 + 30 + 28)/3 = 28
November
16
December
14
4 - 38
4 - 39
January
10
February
12
March
13
April
16
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
19
WEIGHTS APPLIED
PERIOD
23
3
Last month
26
2
Two months ago
30
1
Three months ago
28
6
Sum of the weights
18
Forecast for this month =
16
3 x Sales last mo. + 2 x Sales 2 mos. ago + 1 x Sales 3 mos. ago
14
Sum of the weights
4 - 40
January
10
February
12
March
13
April
16
May
19
June
23
July
26
August
30
September
28
October
18
November
16
December
14
4 - 41
4 - 42
Sales demand
25
20
15
10
Actual sales
Moving average
5
|
Figure 4.2
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
J
J
Month
4 - 43
Exponential Smoothing
Ranges from 0 to 1
Subjectively chosen
4 - 44
Exponential Smoothing
New forecast = Last periods forecast
+ (Last periods actual demand
Last periods forecast)
Ft = Ft 1 + (At 1 - Ft 1)
where
Ft =
new forecast
Ft 1 =
=
At 1 =
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = 153
Smoothing constant = .20
4 - 46
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = 153
Smoothing constant = .20
New forecast
4 - 47
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = 153
Smoothing constant = .20
New forecast
Effect of
Smoothing Constants
Smoothing constant generally .05 .50
As increases, older values become less
significant
WEIGHT ASSIGNED TO
SMOOTHING
CONSTANT
MOST
RECENT
PERIOD
( )
2ND MOST
RECENT
PERIOD
(1 )
3RD MOST
RECENT
PERIOD
(1 )2
4th MOST
RECENT
PERIOD
(1 )3
5th MOST
RECENT
PERIOD
(1 )4
= .1
.1
.09
.081
.073
.066
= .5
.5
.25
.125
.063
.031
4 - 49
Impact of Different
225
200
Demand
= .5
Actual
demand
175
150
= .1
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
Quarter
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 50
Impact of Different
225
Chose high
200
Demand
= .5
Actual
demandof
values
when
underlying average
is stable
|
|
|
|
|
= .1
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
Quarter
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 51
Choosing
The objective is to obtain the most
accurate forecast no matter the
technique
We generally do this by selecting the
model that gives us the lowest forecast
error
Forecast error = Actual demand Forecast value
= At Ft
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 52
MAD
n
4 - 53
ACTUAL
TONNAGE
UNLOADED
180
175
175
168
177.50
159
172.75
175
165.88
190
170.44
205
180.22
180
192.61
182
186.30
184.15
FORECAST WITH
= .50
4 - 54
QUARTER
1
180
175
5.00
175
5.00
168
175.50
7.50
177.50
9.50
159
174.75
15.75
172.75
13.75
175
173.18
1.82
165.88
9.12
190
173.36
16.64
170.44
19.56
205
175.02
29.98
180.22
24.78
180
178.02
1.98
192.61
12.61
182
178.22
3.78
186.30
4.30
|Deviations|
n
ABSOLUTE
DEVIATION
FOR a = .10
FORECAST
WITH
= .50
ACTUAL
TONNAGE
UNLOADED
ABSOLUTE
DEVIATION
FOR a = .50
82.45
98.62
10.31
12.33
4 - 55
MSE
4 - 56
ACTUAL
TONNAGE
UNLOADED
180
175
168
175.50
(7.5)2 = 56.25
159
174.75
(15.75)2 = 248.06
175
173.18
(1.82)2 = 3.31
190
173.36
(16.64)2 = 276.89
205
175.02
(29.98)2 = 898.80
180
178.02
(1.98)2 = 3.92
182
178.22
(3.78)2 = 14.29
FORECAST FOR
= .10
(ERROR)2
52 = 25
Forecast errors
MSE
n
1,526.52 / 8 190.8
4 - 57
MAPE
/ Actuali
i1
4 - 58
ACTUAL
TONNAGE
UNLOADED
FORECAST FOR
= .10
180
175.00
100(5/180) = 2.78%
168
175.50
100(7.5/168) = 4.46%
159
174.75
100(15.75/159) = 9.90%
175
173.18
100(1.82/175) = 1.05%
190
173.36
100(16.64/190) = 8.76%
205
175.02
100(29.98/205) = 14.62%
180
178.02
100(1.98/180) = 1.10%
182
178.22
100(3.78/182) = 2.08%
MAPE
5.59%
n
4 - 59
Actual
Tonnage
Unloaded
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .10
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
180
168
159
175
190
205
180
182
175
175.5
174.75
173.18
173.36
175.02
178.02
178.22
5.00
7.50
15.75
1.82
16.64
29.98
1.98
3.78
82.45
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .50
175
177.50
172.75
165.88
170.44
180.22
192.61
186.30
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5.00
9.50
13.75
9.12
19.56
24.78
12.61
4.30
98.62
4 - 60
Quarter
1 For
2
3
4
5 For
6
7
8
Unloaded
a = .10
a = .10
5.00
180
= .10 175
168
175.5
7.50
159 = 82.45/8
174.75 = 10.31
15.75
175
173.18
190
= .50 173.36
205 = 98.62/8
175.02
180
178.02
182
178.22
1.82
16.64
29.98
12.33
1.98
3.78
82.45
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .50
175
177.50
172.75
165.88
170.44
180.22
192.61
186.30
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5.00
9.50
13.75
9.12
19.56
24.78
12.61
4.30
98.62
4 - 61
Quarter
1 For
2
3
4
5 For
6
7
8
Unloaded
a = .10
a = .10
5.00
180
= .10 175
168
175.5
7.50
= 1,526.54/8
159
174.75 = 190.82
15.75
175
173.18
190
= .50 173.36
205
175.02
= 1,561.91/8
180
178.02
182
178.22
MAD
1.82
16.64
29.98
195.24
1.98
3.78
82.45
10.31
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .50
175
177.50
172.75
165.88
170.44
180.22
192.61
186.30
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5.00
9.50
13.75
9.12
19.56
24.78
12.61
4.30
98.62
12.33
4 - 62
Comparison
of
Forecast
Error
n
100|deviationi|/actuali
i=1
Actual
MAPE Tonnage
=
Quarter
Unloaded
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Rounded
Forecast
with n
a = .10
Absolute
Deviation
for
a = .10
For
175
190=
205
180
182
173.18
1.82
.50 173.36
16.64
175.02
= 54.05/8
=29.98
6.76%
178.02
1.98
178.22
3.78
82.45
MAD
10.31
MSE
190.82
Rounded
Forecast
with
a = .50
175
177.50
172.75
165.88
170.44
180.22
192.61
186.30
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5.00
9.50
13.75
9.12
19.56
24.78
12.61
4.30
98.62
12.33
195.24
4 - 63
Actual
Tonnage
Unloaded
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
180
168
159
175
190
205
180
182
175
175.5
174.75
173.18
173.36
175.02
178.02
178.22
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .10
5.00
7.50
15.75
1.82
16.64
29.98
1.98
3.78
82.45
10.31
190.82
5.59%
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .50
175
177.50
172.75
165.88
170.44
180.22
192.61
186.30
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5.00
9.50
13.75
9.12
19.56
24.78
12.61
4.30
98.62
12.33
195.24
6.76%
4 - 64
ACTUAL DEMAND
100
Ft = 100 (given)
200
300
400
500
4 - 65
4 - 66
4 - 67
MONTH (t)
12
21
17
31
20
28
19
36
24
10
= .2
= .4
4 - 68
MONTH
ACTUAL DEMAND
12
11
17
12.80
20
19
24
21
31
28
36
10
SMOOTHED
TREND, Tt
FORECAST
INCLUDING TREND,
FITt
13.00
SMOOTHED
TREND, Tt
MONTH
ACTUAL DEMAND
12
11
17
12.80
1.92
20
19
24
21
31
28
36
10
FORECAST
INCLUDING TREND,
FITt
13.00
SMOOTHED
TREND, Tt
FORECAST
INCLUDING TREND,
FITt
MONTH
ACTUAL DEMAND
12
11
13.00
17
12.80
1.92
14.72
20
19
24
21
31
28
36
10
SMOOTHED
TREND, Tt
FORECAST
INCLUDING TREND,
FITt
MONTH
ACTUAL DEMAND
12
11
13.00
17
12.80
1.92
14.72
20
15.18
2.10
17.28
19
17.82
2.32
20.14
24
19.91
2.23
22.14
21
22.51
2.38
24.89
31
24.11
2.07
26.18
28
27.14
2.45
29.59
36
29.28
2.32
31.60
10
32.48
2.68
35.16
4 - 72
Figure 4.3
Product demand
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
|
1
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
4
5
6
Time (months)
|
7
|
8
|
9
4 - 73
Trend Projections
Fitting a trend line to historical data points to
project into the medium to long-range
Linear trends can be found using the least
squares technique
y^ = a + bx
^
Deviation7
Deviation5
Deviation3
Deviation1
(error)
Deviation6
Deviation2
Trend line, y^ = a + bx
Time period
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Figure 4.4
4 - 75
a bx
y
xy nxy
b
x nx
2
a y bx
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 76
ELECTRICAL
POWER DEMAND
YEAR
ELECTRICAL
POWER DEMAND
74
105
79
142
80
122
90
4 - 77
ELECTRICAL POWER
DEMAND (y)
x2
xy
74
74
79
158
80
240
90
16
360
105
25
525
1
2
3
4
5
142
x 28
7
x = 28
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
122
y = 692
36
y 692
98.86
852
49
854
x2 = 140
xy = 3,063
4 - 78
b
POWER
10.54
ELECTRICAL
28
DEMAND (y) 140 7 4
x
xy
x nx
2
74
74
a y bx 98.8679
10.54 4 56.70
158
80
240
90
16
360
105
25
525
Thus,
56.70 10.54x
y
4
5
x in
y+ 10.54(8)
Demand
28year 8 = 56.70
692
x
4
y
98.86
=
141.02,
or
141
n
7 122
n
7 49megawatts
142
6
7
x = 28
y = 692
36
x2 = 140
852
854
xy = 3,063
4 - 79
Trend line,
y^ = 56.70 + 10.54x
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
Year
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
Figure 4.5
4 - 80
4 - 81
The multiplicative
seasonal model can
adjust trend data for
seasonal variations
in demand
4 - 82
4 - 83
MONTH
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
AVERAGE
YEARLY
DEMAND
90
Jan
80
85
105
Feb
70
85
85
80
Mar
80
93
82
85
Apr
90
95
115
100
May
113
125
131
123
June
110
115
120
115
July
100
102
113
105
Aug
88
102
110
100
Sept
85
90
95
90
Oct
77
78
85
80
Nov
75
82
83
80
Dec
82
78
80
80
AVERAGE
MONTHLY
DEMAND
SEASONAL
INDEX
1,128
4 - 84
MONTH
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
AVERAGE
YEARLY
DEMAND
AVERAGE
MONTHLY
DEMAND
Jan
80
85
105
90
94
Feb
70
85
85
80
94
Mar
80
93
82
85
94
100
94
123
94
115
94
Apr
May
June
Average
90
95 1,128
115
=125
= 94
monthly
113
131
12 months
demand
110
115
120
July
100
102
113
105
94
Aug
88
102
110
100
94
Sept
85
90
95
90
94
Oct
77
78
85
80
94
Nov
75
82
83
80
94
Dec
82
78
80
80
94
SEASONAL
INDEX
1,128
4 - 85
MONTH
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
AVERAGE
YEARLY
DEMAND
AVERAGE
MONTHLY
DEMAND
Jan
80
85
105
90
94
Feb
70
85
85
80
94
Mar
80
93
82
85
94
Apr
90
95
115
100
94
May
113
125
131
123
94
June
Seasonal110
July
index
100
SEASONAL
INDEX
.957( = 90/94)
Average
monthly
demand
years
115
120
115 for past 394
102 Average
113
105 demand 94
monthly
Aug
88
102
110
100
94
Sept
85
90
95
90
94
Oct
77
78
85
80
94
Nov
75
82
83
80
94
Dec
82
78
80
80
94
1,128
4 - 86
MONTH
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
AVERAGE
YEARLY
DEMAND
AVERAGE
MONTHLY
DEMAND
SEASONAL
INDEX
Jan
80
85
105
90
94
.957( = 90/94)
Feb
70
85
85
80
94
.851( = 80/94)
Mar
80
93
82
85
94
.904( = 85/94)
Apr
90
95
115
100
94
1.064( = 100/94)
May
113
125
131
123
94
1.309( = 123/94)
June
110
115
120
115
94
1.223( = 115/94)
July
100
102
113
105
94
1.117( = 105/94)
Aug
88
102
110
100
94
1.064( = 100/94)
Sept
85
90
95
90
94
.957( = 90/94)
Oct
77
78
85
80
94
.851( = 80/94)
Nov
75
82
83
80
94
.851( = 80/94)
Dec
82
78
80
80
94
.851( = 80/94)
1,128
4 - 87
DEMAND
1,200
12
Feb
1,200
12
Mar
1,200
12
Apr
1,200
12
May
1,200
12
June
1,200
12
x .957 = 96
x .851 = 85
x .904 = 90
x 1.064 = 106
x 1.309 = 131
x 1.223 = 122
MONTH
July
DEMAND
1,200
12
Aug
1,200
12
Sept
1,200
12
Oct
1,200
12
Nov
1,200
12
Dec
1,200
12
x 1.117 = 112
x 1.064 = 106
x .957 = 96
x .851 = 85
x .851 = 85
x .851 = 85
4 - 88
140
130
Demand
120
110
100
90
80
70
|
J
|
F
|
M
|
A
|
M
|
J
|
J
|
A
|
S
|
O
|
N
|
D
Time
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 89
Figure 4.6
10,200
Inpatient Days
10,000
9,800
9,600
9,400
9573
9530
9551
9659
9616
9594
9637
9745
9702
9680
9724
9766
9,200
9,000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Month
4 - 90
SEASONALITY INDEX
January
1.04
July
1.03
February
0.97
August
1.04
March
1.02
September
0.97
April
1.01
October
1.00
May
0.99
November
0.96
June
0.99
December
0.98
MONTH
SEASONALITY INDEX
4 - 91
Seasonal Indices
1.06
1.04 1.04
1.02
1.02
1.00
1.01
1.00
0.99
0.98
0.96
1.03
0.98
0.99
0.97
0.97
0.94
0.92
1.04
0.96
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Month
4 - 92
67
68
69
70
71
72
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
9,911
9,265
9,164
9,691
9,520
9,542
Period
73
74
75
76
77
78
Month
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
9,949
10,068
9,411
9,724
9,355
9,572
Forecast with
Trend &
Seasonality
Forecast with
Trend &
Seasonality
4 - 93
Inpatient Days
10,000
10068
9949
9911
9,800
9764
9,600
9572
9,400
9,200
9,000
9724
9691
9520 9542
9411
9265
9355
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Month
4 - 94
I (1.30)($100,000) $130,000
y
Quarter II:
II (.90)($120,000) $108,000
y
Quarter III: y
III (.70)($140,000) $98,000
Quarter IV: y
(1.10)($160,000) $176,000
IV
4 - 95
Associative Forecasting
Used when changes in one or more independent
variables can be used to predict the changes in
the dependent variable
Most common technique is linear
regression analysis
We apply this technique just as we did
in the time-series example
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 96
Associative Forecasting
Forecasting an outcome based on predictor
variables using the least squares technique
^
y = a + bx
^
4 - 97
Associative Forecasting
Example
NODELS SALES
(IN $ MILLIONS), y
AREA PAYROLL
(IN $ BILLIONS), x
NODELS SALES
(IN $ MILLIONS), y
AREA PAYROLL
(IN $ BILLIONS), x
2.0
2.0
3.0
2.0
2.5
3.5
Nodels sales
(in$ millions)
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
4 - 98
Associative Forecasting
Example
SALES, y
PAYROLL, x
xy
2.0
2.0
3.0
9.0
2.5
16
10.0
2.0
4.0
2.0
2.0
3.5
49
24.5
y = 15.0
x =
18
x 18
3
6
x2 =
80
xy =
51.5
y 15
2.5
.25
80 (6)(3 )
x nx
2
x2
Associative Forecasting
Example
SALES, y
PAYROLL, x
2.0
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
3.5
y = 15.0
x =
2.0
9
1.75
y
.25x
9.0
10.0
2.0
49
24.5
Sales 1.75
4 .25(payroll)
4.0
18
x2 =
80
xy =
51.5
y 15
2.5
.25
80 (6)(3 )
x nx
2
xy
16
x 18
3
6
x2
Associative Forecasting
Example
SALES, y
2.0
4.0
2.5 3.0
2.0 2.0
2.0
1.0
3.5
y = 15.0
x =
|
2.0
9.0
16
10.0
2.0
49
24.5
Sales 1.75
4 .25(payroll)
4.0
18
|
x2 =
80
xy =
|
51.5
3
4 y 5 15 6
7
y
2.5
6 Area payroll (in6$ billions)
6
.25
80 (6)(3 )
x nx
2
xy
9
1.75
y
.25x
x1 18 2
3
0
x2
Nodels sales
(in$ millions)
3.0
PAYROLL, x
Associative Forecasting
Example
If payroll next year is estimated to be $6 billion,
then:
4 - 102
Associative Forecasting
Example
Nodels sales
(in$ millions)
If payroll4.0
next
year is estimated to be $6 billion,
then: 3.25
3.0
2.0
Sales1.0(in$
millions) = 1.75 + .25(6)
= 1.75 + 1.5 = 3.25
|
2
3
4
5
6
Sales
= $3,250,000
Area payroll
(in $ billions)
4 - 103
This point is
actually the
mean of a
probability
distribution
Nodels sales
(in$ millions)
4.0
3.25
3.0
y 1.75 .25x
1.0
Figure 4.9
Regression line,
2.0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
4 - 104
2
(
y
y
)
n 2
4 - 105
Sy,x
2
y
a y b xy
n 2
4 - 106
2
y
a y b xy
n 2
.09375
.306 (in $ millions)
The standard error
of the estimate is
$306,000 in sales
Nodels sales
(in$ millions)
4.0
3.25
3.0
2.0
1.0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
4 - 107
Correlation
4 - 108
Correlation Coefficient
r
n xy x y
n x
n y
2
4 - 109
Correlation Coefficient
Figure 4.10
x
(a) Perfect negative
correlation
y
x
(c) No correlation
High
1.0
Moderate
0.8
0.6
Low
Low
Moderate
0.4
0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficient values
0.6
0.8
High
1.0
4 - 110
Correlation Coefficient
y
y =
x2
xy
y2
2.0
2.0
4.0
3.0
9.0
9.0
2.5
16
10.0
6.25
2.0
4.0
4.0
2.0
2.0
4.0
3.5
49
24.5
12.25
15.0
x =
18
x2 =
80
xy =
51.5
y2 =
39.5
(6)(51.5) (18)(15.0)
(6)(80) (18) 2 (16)(39.5) (15.0) 2
309 270
(156)(12)
39
1,872
39
.901
43.3
4 - 111
Correlation
Easy to interpret
4 - 112
Multiple-Regression Analysis
If more than one independent variable is to be
used in the model, linear regression can be
extended to multiple regression to accommodate
several independent variables
a b1x1 b2 x2
y
Computationally, this is quite
complex and generally done on the
computer
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 113
Multiple-Regression Analysis
In the Nodel example, including interest rates in the
model gives the new equation:
4 - 114
4 - 115
Cumulative error
MAD
Actual Forecast
n
4 - 116
Tracking Signal
Figure 4.11
0 MADs
Acceptable
range
4 - 117
CUM
ERROR
ABSOLUTE
FORECAST
ERROR
CUM ABS
FORECAST
ERROR
MAD
TRACKING
SIGNAL (CUM
ERROR/MAD)
100
10
10
10
10
10.0
10/10 = 1
95
100
15
15
7.5
15/7.5 = 2
115
100
+15
15
30
10.
0/10 = 0
100
110
10
10
10
40
10.
10/10 = 1
125
110
+15
+5
15
55
11.0
+5/11 = +0.5
140
110
+30
+35
30
85
14.2
+35/14.2 = +2.5
QTR
ACTUAL
DEMAND
FORECAST
DEMAND
90
Forecast errors 85
14.2
At the end of quarter 6, MAD
n
Cumulative error 35
Tracking signal
2.5 MADs
MAD
14.2
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
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Adaptive Smoothing
4 - 119
Focus Forecasting
4 - 120
Unusual events
4 - 121
Figure 4.12
15%
10%
5%
11-12
1-2
12-1
(Lunchtime)
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
7-8
6-7
(Dinnertime)
Hour of day
8-9
9-10
10-11
4 - 122
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2
6
8
A.M.
10
12
Hour of day
6
8
P.M.
10
12
4 - 123
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otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher.
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4 - 124