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Hypothesis

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131 visualizzazioni93 pagineHypothesis

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Hypothesis Development

and Testing

Dr. Rohit Joshi

IIM Shillong

Statistical inference

draw conclusions from data

conclusion is correct within reasonable doubt

decision making

Statistical inference

Decision-making process:

2. Summarize the data (using either visual

displays or descriptive statistics)

3. Set up an hypothesis (i.e. claim or theory)

to be tested

4. Calculate the probability of obtaining a

sample such as the one we have if the

hypothesis is true

5. Either accept or reject the hypothesis

population

Significance level

probability between whether an event has

occurred by chance or whether an

unusual event has taken place

= 0.05

an event that occurs less than 5% of the

time is considered unusual

Assumptions

Sample size n is reasonably large

sample sizexis smaller than 30.

Remember that and s are strongly

influenced by outliers.

1.

2.

3.

of

4.

Collect data (SRS).

Calculate

as an estimate of and s as an estimate

.

Check assumptions:

Sample size n is reasonably large (n 30) so can

use normal distribution and estimate with s.

Check for strong skewness or outliers

5. Calculate confidence interval.

s

x z*

n

What is a Hypothesis?

A hypothesis is a

claim (assumption)

about the population

parameter

class is 7.5!

Examples of parameters

are population mean

or proportion

The parameter must

be identified before

analysis

Types of Hypotheses

Research Hypothesis

will be the outcome of an experiment or a

study.

Statistical Hypotheses

research hypothesis.

Example Research

Hypotheses

company

Companies with more than Rs 1000

Crores of assets spend a higher

percentage of their annual budget on

advertising than do companies with less

than Rs 1000 Crores of assets.

The price of scrap metal is a good

indicator of the industrial production

index some x months later.

Statistical Hypotheses

Two Parts

a null hypothesis

an alternative hypothesis

happening

Alternative Hypothesis something

new is happening

Notation

null: H0

alternative: Ha

Hypotheses

mutually exclusive. Only one of them

can be true.

The Null and Alternative Hypotheses are

collectively exhaustive. They are stated

to include all possibilities. (An

abbreviated form of the null hypothesis

is often used.)

The Null Hypothesis is assumed to be

true.

The burden of proof falls on the

Example:

H 0 : female = male

where is the average IQ of the

named gender

unusual has occurred. The notation is Ho.

something unusual has occurred. The

notation is H1 or HA

Ho:(statement) v H1(alternative statement)

tested

Shillong Households isH

three

0 : 3

Is always about a population parameter , not

about a sample statistic

hypothesis is true

proven guilty

May or may not be rejected

Alternative hypothesis

Two-tailed test (two sided alternative)

Test with no preconceived notion that the true

value of is either above or below the

hypothesised value of

H1: o

H1

less than

)

H 3: ( 3

1

May or may not be accepted

Is generally the hypothesis that is

believed (or needed to be proven) to

be true by the researcher

Hypotheses: Example

packages with flour.

The company wants the package

contents to average 40 Kgs.

Ho : 40 Kg

Ha : 40 Kg

APPLICATION

installed energy efficient lights, heaters and

air conditioners last year. Now they want to

determine whether the average monthly

energy usage has decreased. Should they

perform a one- or two-tail test? If their

previous average monthly usage was 3124

Kwh, what are the null and alternative

hypotheses?

smokers to have higher daytime heart rates on average than

do nonsmokers. He also believes that smokers crave the

nicotine in cigarette rather than just smoking for physical

satisfaction of the act, accordingly that the average smoker

will smoke more cigarettes per day if he or she switches from

a brand with high nicotine content to one with a low level of

nicotine.

a. Suppose Ross knows that nonsmokers have an average

daytime heart rate of 78 beats per minute. What are the

appropriate null and alternative hypotheses for testing his

belief?

b. For the past 3 months, he has been observing a sample of

48 individual who smoke an average of 15 high-nicotine

cigarettes per day. He has just switch them to a brand with

a low nicotine content. State Null and alternative

hypotheses for testing second belief.

APPLICATION

Assume the

population

mean age is 50.

( H 0 : 50 )

Is X 20 likely if ?

No, not likely!

REJECT

Null Hypothesis

X 20

Take a Sample

Sampling Distribution Xof

It is unlikely

that we would

get a sample

mean of this

value ...

20

were

the population

mean. = 50

If H0 is true

... Therefore,

we reject the

null

hypothesis

that m = 50.

Hypotheses: Example

packages with flour.

The company wants the package

contents to average 40 Kgs.

Ho : 40 Kg

Ha : 40 Kg

Rejection Region

Rejection Region

=40 Kg

Critical Value

Critical Value

Tests

One-tailed Tests

Ho : 40

Ha : 40

Two-tailed Test

Ho: 12

Ha: 12

Ho : P 0.18

Ha : P 0.18

Level of Significance,

statistic if null hypothesis is true

Is designated by

significance)

distribution

, (level of

beginning

Provides the critical value(s) of the test

Level of Significance

and the Rejection Region

H0: =3

H1: < 3

H0: = 3

H1: > 3

H0: 3

H1: 3

Rejection Regions

Critical

Value(s)

/2

One-tailed Tests

Ho : 40

Ha : 40

Rejection Region

Non Rejection Region

=40 oz

Critical Value

Ho : 40

Ha : 40

Rejection Region

Non Rejection Region

=40 oz

Critical Value

Two-tailed Tests

Ho : 40

Ha : 40

Rejection

Region

Rejection

Region

=40

Critical Values

Two-tailed Test

Ho : Rs 74,914

Ha : Rs 74,914

.025

2

.025

2

Rejection

Region

Rejection

Region

Non Rejection Region

=0

14,530

Zc 196

.

Zc 196

.

Income Example:

Two-tailed Test

If Z Zc 196

. , reject Ho.

If Z Zc 196

. , do not reject Ho.

X 78,695 74,914

Z

2.75

14,530

n

112

Z = 2.75 Zc = 1.96, reject Ho

Critical Value Method

Lower

Ho : Rs 74,914

X Z n

Ha : Rs 74,914

c

.025

2

.025

2

Rejection

Region

Rejection

Region

Non Rejection Region

72,223

Zc 196

.

14,530

74,914 196

.

112

72,223

77,605

=0

Upper

Zc 196

.

Zc

14,530

74,914 196

.

112

77,605

Critical Value Method

.025

2

.025

2

Rejection

Region

Rejection

Region

Non Rejection Region

72,223

Zc 196

.

77,605

=0

Zc 196

.

If 77,223 X 77,605, do not reject Ho.

Since X 78,695

H0 : =

4.3

Ha : <

4.3

n=

=COUNT(A4:H7)

0.05

Mean =

S=

Std Error =

=AVERAGE(A4:H7)

=STDEV(A4:H7)

=B12/SQRT(B9)

An exercise

SAT score distribution for India:

Population mean = 500,

Population st.dev. = 100

Sample mean of 35 students = 541

Develop and test Hypothesis

Application

Each day, the Indian Custom Service (ICS)

has historically intercepted about Rs. 28

Lacs in the contraband goods being

smuggled into the country, with the

standard deviation of Rs. 16 Lacs per day.

On 64 randomly chosen days in 2010, the

ICS intercepted an average of Rs. 30.3 Lacs

in the contraband goods. What would you

suggest the Commissioner about the

smuggling as compared to historic level.

Unknown, = .05

Weights in Kgs of a Sample of 20 Plates

22.6

27.0

26.2

25.8

22.2

26.6

25.3

30.4

23.2

28.1

23.1

28.6

27.4

26.9

24.2

23.5

24.5

24.9

26.1

23.6

Unknown, = .05

Ho: 25

Ha: 25

df n 1 19

Rejection Regions

.025

2

.025

2

2.093

Critical Values

2.093

Unknown, = .05

If t 2.093, reject Ho.

Rejection Regions

.025

2

.025

2

Non Rejection Region

2.093

Critical Values

2.093

X 25.51 25.0

t

1.04

S

2.1933

n

20

Since t 104

. 2.093, do not reject Ho.

Example

Size in Acres of 23 Farms

445

463

466

561

489

466

477

560

474

557

557

505

502

433

553

449

545

477

545

438

500

511590

Example

Ho : 471

Ha : 471

Rejection Region

.05

df n 1 22

t

Critical Value

1717

.

If t 1717

. , reject Ho.

Rejection Region

If t 1717

. , do not reject Ho.

.05

Non Rejection Region

t

Critical Value

X 498.78 471

t

2.84

S

46.94

n

23

1717

.

p P

Z

P Q

n

where: p = sample proportion

P = population proportion

Q = 1 -P

n P 5, and

nQ 5

A case

Audio Sounds runs a chain of stores selling

stereo systems and components. It has been

very successful in many university towns but

it has had some failures. Analysis of its

failures has led it to adopt a policy of not

opening a store unless it can be reasonably

certain that more than 15% of the students in

the town own stereo system costing at least

$1,000 or more. A survey of 300 of 2400

students at a small art college in the Midwest

has discovered that 57 of them own stereo

system costing at least $1000. If Audio

Sounds is willing to run a 5% risk of failure,

Application

XCO, a multinational manufacturer, uses a

batch process to produce widgets. Each

batch of widgets takes 8 hrs to produce and

has material and labor cost of $ 8,476.

Because of variation in machine efficiency

and raw material purity, the number of

widgets per batch is random. All widgets

made can be sold @ $2.50 each, and widget

production is profitable so long as the

batches sell for more than $ 12,500 on

average. XCO sampled 16 batches and

found 5040 widgets per batch on average,

with a standard deviation of 41.3 widgets.

At = 0.025, can XCO conclude that its

widget operation is profitable?

Errors

a conclusion about a null hypothesis

1.

Type I errors occur when you reject

Ho as

being false when Ho is really true

2.

Type II errors occur when you accept

Ho as

being true when Ho is really false

Decisions

Type I Error

Rejects a true null hypothesis

Has serious consequences

Set by researcher

Type II Error

The probability of Type II Error

is

The power of the test is 1

Result Probabilities

H0: Innocent

Jury Trial

Hypothesis

The Truth

Verdict

Innocent

The Truth

Guilty

Decision

H 0 True

Do Not

Innocent

Correct

Error

Reject

1-

H0

Guilty

Error

Test

Correct

Reject

H0

Type I

Error

( )

H 0 False

Type II

Error ( )

Power

(1 - )

(continued)

from the point of view of Type I errors

compare a alpha-level of .01 and .05:

is so unusual that we would only expect to

observe it 1 in 100 and 5 in 100 times

(respectively) due to random chance

the larger value (.05) means we will accept less

unusual sample data as evidence that H0 is false

(i.e., a Type I error) is higher

to, the greater the probability associated

with another kind of errorType II error

Type II error

failing to reject the null hypothesis when

it actually is false

the probability of a Type II error () is

generally unknown

errors vary according to context

in general, Type I errors are more of

a problem

e.g., claiming a significant pattern

where none exists

H0 is correct

H0 is incorrect

H0 is accepted

correct decision

Type II error ()

H0 is rejected

Type I error ()

correct decision

n=10

= 2.5

Where does

this number

come from?

50) if our sample mean is either of

these two regions

the probability

of a Type II error

if the actual mean

is 52.

Type II error

different than 50

The probability of a Type II error is

designated by

The power

power of

of aa statistical

statistical hypothesis

hypothesis test

test isis the

the

The

probability of

of rejecting

rejecting the

the null

null hypothesis

hypothesis when

when the

the

probability

null hypothesis

hypothesis isis false.

false.

null

Power== (1

(1 -- )

)

Power

Theprobability

probabilityofofaatype

typeIIIIerror,

error,and

andthe

thepower

powerofofaatest,

test,depends

dependson

onthe

theactual

actualvalue

value

The

theunknown

unknownpopulation

populationparameter.

parameter. The

Therelationship

relationshipbetween

betweenthe

thepopulation

populationmean

mean

ofofthe

andthe

thepower

powerofofthe

thetest

testisiscalled

calledthe

thepower

powerfunction.

function.

and

Valueof

of Power

Power==(1

(1--)

)

Value

0.8739

0.8739

0.7405

0.7405

0.5577

0.5577

0.3613

0.3613

0.1963

0.1963

0.0877

0.0877

0.0318

0.0318

0.0092

0.0092

0.0021

0.0021

0.1261

0.1261

0.2695

0.2695

0.4423

0.4423

0.6387

0.6387

0.8037

0.8037

0.9123

0.9123

0.9682

0.9682

0.9908

0.9908

0.9972

0.9972

1.0

0.9

0.8

Power

61

61

62

62

63

63

64

64

65

65

66

66

67

67

68

68

69

69

Powerofa One-TailedTest:=60,=0.05

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

of a type II error may be

the most difficult concept

Inverse Relationship

If you reduce the probability of one error, the other

one increases so that everything else is unchanged.

Error

hypothesized parameter and its true value

decrease

Significance level

Increases when

Sample size

decreases

Type I and Type II Errors

Choose smaller Type I Error when the

cost of rejecting the maintained

hypothesis is high

person

The Exxon Valdez: causing an oil tanker to

sink

have an interest in changing the status

quo

Example

Ho: 12

Ha: 12

Rejection

Region

=.05

Non Rejection Region

=0

Zc 1.645

Zc

010

.

12 ( 1645

. )

60

11979

.

If X 11979

. , reject Ho.

If X 11979

. , do not reject Ho.

=11.99 Kg

Reject Ho

Do Not Reject Ho

Type I

Error

95%

=.05

Ho is True

Correct

Decision

Z0

Ho is False

Correct

Decision

19.77%

=.8023

Type II

Error

Z1

=11.96 Kg

Reject Ho

Do Not Reject Ho

Type I

Error

95%

Correct

Decision

=.05

Ho is True

Ho is False

Correct

Decision

92.92%

=.0708

Z0

Type II

Error

Z1

Critical Values

Approach to Testing

) to

X

test statistic (e.g.: Z, t or F statistic)

Obtain critical value(s) for a specified

reject H0

Otherwise do not reject H0

) to

X

Test Statistic (e.g. Z, t or F statistic)

Obtain the p-value from a table or

computer

of obtaining a test

p-value: Probability

statistic more extreme (

or

) than

the observed sample value given H0 is true

Called observedlevel of significance

Smallest value of

that an H0 can be

rejected

Compare the

p-value with

If p-value

, do not reject H

General Steps in

Hypothesis Testing

e.g.: Test the assumption that the true mean

number of of TV sets in U.S.

homes is three

(

Known)

1. State the H0

H0 : 3

2. State the H1

H1 : 3

4. Choose n

=.05

n 100

Z test

3. Choose

5. Choose Test

General Steps in

Hypothesis Testing (continued)

6. Set up critical

value(s)

Reject H0

-1.645

100 households surveyed

7. Collect data

8. Compute test

statistic and p-value

9. Make statistical

decision

p-value = .0228

Reject null hypothesis

The true mean number of TV sets

is less than 3

( Known)

Assumptions

If not normal, requires large samples

Null hypothesis has

sign only

or

Z test statistic

X X

/ n

Rejection Region

H0: 0

H1: > 0

H0: 0

H1: < 0

Reject H0

Reject H0

Z Must Be

Significantly Below 0

to reject H0

contradict H0

Dont Reject H0 !

Q. Does an average box of

cereal contain more than

368 grams of cereal? A

random sample of 25

boxes showed X = 372.5.

The company has

specified to be 15

grams. Test at the

0.05 level.

368 gm.

Tail

Standardized Cumulative

Normal Distribution Table

(Portion)

Z 1

.95

= .05

0 1.645 Z

Critical Value =

1.645

.04

.05

.06

1.7 .9591 .9599 .9608

1.8 .9671 .9678 .9686

1.9

.9738

.9744

.9750

Test

H0: 368

H1: > 368

= 0.5

n = 25

Critical Value: 1.645

Test Statistic:

X

Z

1.50

Reject

Do

Not Reject at = .

Decision:

05

.05

1.645

1.50

No evidence that

Conclusion:

true mean is more

reasoning as confidence intervals for p.

The big idea is to cover the middle 95% (or whatever

our confidence level is) of the area of the normal

curve (sampling distribution of x-bar), we must go

out a distance of z* standard deviations on either side

of the mean.

The standard deviation of the sampling

distribution of x-bar (/n) depends on the sample

size n and the population standard deviation .

z* is the critical value for our confidence level from

Table

reasonable range of values for our unknown

population mean .

p -Value Solution

p-Value is P(Z 1.50) = 0.0668

Use the

alternative

hypothesis to

find the

direction of the

rejection region.

P-Value =.0668

1.0000

- .9332

.0668

1.50

1.50 to Obtain .9332

Z

Z Value of Sample Statistic

p -Value Solution

(continued)

Do Not Reject.

p Value = 0.0668

Reject

= 0.05

1.50

1.645

Q. Does an average box

of cereal contain 368

grams of cereal? A

random sample of 25

boxes showed X =

372.5. The company

has specified to be

15 grams. Test at the

0.05 level.

368 gm.

Test

H0: 368

H1: 368

Test Statistic:

X 372.5 368

Z

1.50

15

n

25

Decision:

= 0.05

n = 25

Critical Value: 1.96

Reject

.025

.025

-1.96

0

1.50

1.96

Do Not Reject at = .

Conclusion:

05

No Evidence that

True Mean is Not 368

p-Value Solution

(p Value = 0.1336) ( = 0.05)

Do Not Reject.

p Value = 2 x 0.0668

Reject

Reject

= 0.05

1.50

1.96

Connection to

Confidence Intervals

For X 372.5, 15 and n 25,

the 95% confidence interval is:

372.5 1.96 15 / 25 372.5 1.96 15 / 25

or

366.62 378.38

If this interval contains the hypothesized mean (368),

we do not reject the null hypothesis.

It does. Do not reject.

t Test: Unknown

Assumption

If not normal, requires a large sample

freedom

X

t

S/ n

Does an average box of

cereal contain more than

368 grams of cereal? A

random sample of 36

boxes showed X = 372.5,

ands 15. Test at the

0.01 level.

is not given

368 gm.

H0: 368

H1: 368

Test Statistic:

X 372.5 368

t

1.80

S

15

n

36

= 0.01

n = 36, df = 35

Critical Value: 2.4377

Decision:

Reject

Conclusion:

.01

0

1.80

2.437

t35

mean is more than 368

p -Value Solution

(p Value is between .025 and .05) ( = 0.01).

Do Not Reject.

p Value = [.025, .05]

Reject

= 0.01

1.80

2.4377

t35

Proportion

Two possible outcomes

characteristic) and

Failure (does not possesses a certain

characteristic)

the success category is denoted by p

Proportion

category is denoted by pS

(continued)

X Number of Successes

ps

n

Sample Size

pS can be approximated by a normal

distribution with mean and standard

deviation

p(1 p)

ps p

ps

Proportion

Q. A marketing

company claims

that it receives 4%

responses from its

mailing. To test this

claim, a random

sample of 500 were

surveyed with 25

responses. Test at

the = .05

significance level.

Check:

np 500 .04 20

5

n 1 p 500 1 .04

480 5

Solution

Test Statistic:

H0: p .04

H1: p .04

= .05

n = 500

Reject

.025

1.96

1.14

.04 1 .04

500

1.14

.025

-1.96

p 1 p

n

.05 .04

Decision:

Reject

pS p

Conclusion:

evidence to reject the

companys claim of 4%

response rate.

p -Value Solution

(p Value = 0.2542) ( = 0.05).

Do Not Reject.

p Value = 2 x .1271

Reject

Reject

= 0.05

1.14

1.96

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