Reliability

Car A very rarely breaks down in 10 years.

Car B breaks down unexpectedly many times a year.

CAR A
Which would be preferred ?

CAR B
2-

Reliability
Mean Time To Failure (MTTF)
Car A
1

Time to failure 1 (0-20)

Time to failure 2 (22-47)

At the Garage
0

Total time to failure(1,2..etc) =49

1

Number of week

Number of failures=2

Car B

At the Garage
0

Total time to failure(1,2..etc) =41

2-

Number of week

Number of failures=8
2

Reliability
Mean Time To Failure (MTTF)
Car A
1

MTTF(A) = (49/2 ) = 24.5

At the Garage
0

Total time to failure(1,2..etc) =49

1

Number of week

Number of failures=2

Car B

At the Garage
0

Total time to failure(1,2..etc) =41

2-

Number of week

Number of failures=8

MTTF(B) = (41/8 ) = 5.125

Reliability
Mean Time To Repair (MTTR)
Car A
1

MTTR(A) = (3/2 ) = 1.5

At the Garage
0

Total time out of service time=3

1

Number of week

Number of failures=2

Car B

At the Garage
0

Total time out of service=11

2-

Number of week

Number of failures=8

MTTR(B) = (11/8 ) = 1.375

Reliability
Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF)
Observe that ( Total time = Time to failures + time to repair failures)
Then its the number of faults that matter most ?
Mean Time Between Failures
Car A
1
At the Garage
0
Number of week

2-

Reliability
Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF)
MTBF = 52 / 2 = 26
MTBF = MTTF+MTTR
Total Time
Number of fails

Time to failure
Number of fails

Time being repaired

Number of fails

In industry repair time is considered to be 8-24 hours

Then MTTF >> MTTR ( less than 1% )
Then MTBF = MTTF
Failure rate

2-

= 1/MTBF
6

Reliability

Types of failure
Total failures that affect Safety, Functionality & Reliability can be categorized
into:
1. Failure to danger that was not detected or failed when needed to function
safely. ( Fault of sensor, actuator, valve when it was supposed to control or
shutdown). dangerous undetected , DU.
2. Failure to danger that was detected. ( Failure of sensor, actuator, valve
that could have became Fail to Danger but was detected during
inspection or testing. dangerous detected , DD
3. Fail to safe detected by instrument before any triggering of shutdown was
initiated. safe undetected , SU
4. Fail to safe but was not detected and caused the system to halt for no high
risk reason.( Falls Alarm). safe detected , SD
2-

Types of failure
Danger Undetected , DU

Total
Device
Random
Failure
Rate

TOT or

Danger , DU

Dangerous Detected , DD

Safe Undetected , SU

Spurious, SP

CRIT

Safe Detected , SD

2-

Probability of Failure at Demand Average PFDavr

Lets buy some light bulbs.
Average life time 1 year.
Mean Time Before Failure 1 year.
Some will burn within days.
Some may last for much longer
than 1 year.

Probability of failure =

For any bulb, whats the

probability of failure ?

2-

Probability of Failure at Demand Average PFDavr

Probability of lamp still working at time t (P on t)= e-Dt
Where D = 1/ MTTF

The probability of failure

The probability of correct

operation

Probability of lamp failing at time t (P on t)= 1- e-Dt

2-

10

Probability of Failure at Demand Average PFDavr

Same thing for any device or system.
The probability of failure keeps getting closer to 1 with time.

Probability of failure with regular proof testing

The probability of failure

If testing can be done every Tp period.

With assumption that the device is returned to original state.
2-

11

Probability of Failure at Demand Average PFDavr

To calculate Probability of Failure on Demand Average. PFD avg

For Tp << MTBF, (Tp << 1/ DU ), or DU*Tp<< 1).

PFDavg = * DU Tp.

2-

PFDavg

DU Tp
2

PFDavg

12

Probability of Failure at Demand Average PFDavr

Item

MTTF D
Years

MTTF SP
Years

Level
Transmitter

150

75

Logic Solver

750

225

Solenoid
Valve

60

25

Shutdown
Valve

50

200
F
T

Solenoid valve
2-

Emergency
Shutdown System

Power
Supply

Outputs

Inputs

Basic Process
Control System
Outputs

Inputs

Logic solver

L
T
2

Level transmitter

L
T
1

Shut Down Valve

13

Probability of Failure at Demand Average PFDavr

Logic solver

Level transmitter

Item

MTTF D
Years

Solenoid valve

MTTF SP
Years

Shut Down Valve

DU

SP

Level Transmitter

150

75

6.67E-3

1.33E-2

Logic Solver

750

225

1.33E-3

4.44E-3

Solenoid Valve

60

25

1.67E-2

4.00E-2

Shutdown Valve

50

200

2.00E-2

5.00E-3

2-

14

Probability of Failure at Demand Average PFDavr

What is the probability of complete failure of system and the occurrence of accident. ?
Assume on a random day the fluid was going high:
Level transmitter not functional.
OR Logic solver not functional.
OR Solenoid valve not responding.
OR Shutdown Valve not working.
So the probability of system failure of system , Dangerous Failure Rate
MTTF D

MTTF SP

DU

SP

Level Transmitter

150

75

6.67E-3

1.33E-2

Logic Solver

750

225

1.33E-3

4.44E-3

Solenoid Valve

60

25

1.67E-2

4.00E-2

Shutdown Valve

50

200

2.00E-2

5.00E-3

Any Failure

22

16

DU =4.47E-2

SP=6.3E-2

Item

2-

15